US Election

[lpm]

Another way to look at Texas would be the 2018 Senate results. High turnout for an off-year, but lower turnout that 2016 or 2020.

Cruz 4,260,553 (50.89% )
O'Rourke 4,045,632 (48.33%)
Other 65,470 (0.78%)
Total votes 8,371,655

If we take those 2018 percentages as the basic levels, for a bad Republican candidate and a good Democrat candidate, then it's pretty easy for high turnout to overcome the 2.5 point deficit?

In 2018, a turnout of 10,500,000 - an extra 2,128,345 votes - split 55% Democrat and 45% Republican, would have given 5,216,222 Democrats vs 5,218,308 Republican. I mean I'm guessing at the 55/45 split but it shows where the numbers balance up.

Should I get excited if Texas turnout hits 10,500,000?

[Little waster]

Other 406,311

That 400k Other represents around 4% of the electorate. In 2016 it was mostly Libertarian voter (280k) vs Greens (70k) and Write-Ins (50k).

If Texas continues to look tight, you'd think Trump has more likelihood to cannibalise the 3rd-Party voters there than Biden.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Both the 2016 and the 2020 data show that Texan counties which voted Republican in 2016 have a higher early voting rate four days out from the election than counties which voted democrat.

In 2016 the rate in democrat counties was 29% at this point, and 34% in republican counties. This time it's 52% and 54% respectively.

I don't think this is a very helpful analysis tbh becuase we don't know who was voting early in those counties.

ETA: Note also that in 2016 only 15 counties allowed early voting, whereas this time it's all 254.

[lpm]

I've been doing a bit of digging and discovered:

1) Nobody f.cking knows...
2) ... but nobody really thinks high turnout is bad for Biden, even if it doesn't help
3) There was an ice storm in that sticky out bit at the top next to Oklahoma where Amarillo is and that stopped people voting early
4) The worst of the worst people on Twitter are the people who say "Is high turnout good for Democrats? Well, it's good for democracy and that's what matters".

[dyqik]

Texas stats 2016:

Registered Voters 15,101,087
Trump 4,685,047 (52.23%)
Clinton 3,877,868 (43.24%)
Other 406,311
Turnout percentage 59.39%
Turnout 8,969,226

If turnout increases to around 75%, Florida levels, that would be about 12,000,000 votes out of about 16,000,000 registered voters.

(Is there anywhere that shows how many registered voters there are in 2020? I couldn't find anything so I'm just taking it up by about 5%)

The internet keeps going on about early voting in Harris County (a nice Democrat stronghold) and the young voters - but never puts it into context and I keep suspecting cherry-picking: I bet there's some Republican stronghold county with high early votes.

I think I'll get excited when turnout gets to 12,000,000, rather than these local snippets of information.

Some states have same-day voter registration: you can register to vote and vote at the same trip to a polling place. Some only have it for early voting.

Texas isn't one of those, but you need to be aware of that when playing this game more widely.

[dyqik]

One thing that has been clear in the polls is that Biden has convinced quite a few Republican voters, and quite a few Trump voters, to switch to him. So turnout may not be everything, or especially predictive.

[Vertigowooyay]

Is Biden the first presidential candidate to be married to a doctor [in her case, of education, graduated 2007]?

No - There was Dr Abigail Bartlett during the Jed Bartlett presidency.


Yes, I KNOW alright? I just need to pretend it was true at the moment.

[Grumble]

Is Biden the first presidential candidate to be married to a doctor [in her case, of education, graduated 2007]?

No - There was Dr Abigail Bartlett during the Jed Bartlett presidency.


Yes, I KNOW alright? I just need to pretend it was true at the moment.

I take it that’s a fictional president

[lpm]

Bartlet.

[headshot]

There was a Jedi president?!

[lpm]

How mad is Bartlet's winning map in the 2002 election?

He won 419-119 but didn't win Texas or Florida (Ritchie was of course from Florida).

He got North Dakota. South Dakota, Nebraska, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, West Virginia...



Then in 2006 Santos got South Carolina but not Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia, got Texas (his home state) but not Florida, lost California (Vinick's home state) but won Missouri.

It's almost as if it was completely made up by a fiction writer.

[Little waster]

There was a Jedi president?!

Well something has to balance the current POTUS, Darth Plageus.

[Grumble]

I find the whole thing confusing enough without bringing in fictional presidents. I assume this is from a tv series like the West Wing or something.

[Vertigowooyay]

Bartlet.

Oh phooey.

[dyqik]

How mad is Bartlet's winning map in the 2002 election?

He won 419-119 but didn't win Texas or Florida (Ritchie was of course from Florida).

He got North Dakota. South Dakota, Nebraska, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, West Virginia...



Then in 2006 Santos got South Carolina but not Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia, got Texas (his home state) but not Florida, lost California (Vinick's home state) but won Missouri.

It's almost as if it was completely made up by a fiction writer.

Still not as crazy as the Meyer-O'Brien race.

[JQH]

Just been depressing myself by watching "Agents of Chaos". Now I'm worried Putin will sabotage the vote.

[monkey]

Just been depressing myself by watching "Agents of Chaos". Now I'm worried Putin will sabotage the vote.

TBH, I think he might be happy with sitting back and watching Americans f.ck it up themselves through paranoia this time. His job is done.

Iran are giving it a go though, they sent a bunch of fake threatening emails the other day.

[El Pollo Diablo]

What are people's timings and plans for Tuesday night TV? Which channels, etc., bearing in mind there's a good chance it won't be over by Wednesday morning.

[lpm]

Usual all night party here on Bad Scrutable.

I'll stick with CNN cos it's what I'm used to. New York Times dials, oh god. Washington Post. 538. Twitter.

Don't forget, Florida results come very fast. We could know by 2 a.m. that Florida is won. Not sure about N. Carolina and Georgia timings, we'll need to do a little timetable. Wisconsin and Michigan will come in through the night.

If we are waiting on Weds morning for Pennsylvania to decide it we are in disaster territory.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Is that 2am British winter time?

[EACLucifer]

What are people's timings and plans for Tuesday night TV? Which channels, etc., bearing in mind there's a good chance it won't be over by Wednesday morning.

My sleep pattern is currently out of sync with the UK, so I may end up going to sleep before polls close, and waking up for the latter part of the election night count.

[EACLucifer]

Though the Republicans are still favourites in Texas, with the unprecedented turnout expected, and the difference in campaign effort, it could end up like Wisconsin in 2016, but the other way. The Republicans seem sure they have it in the bag, but O'Rourke was close in 2018, the highest turnout so far is in areas likely to favour the Democrats, the Democrats are spending over $8,000,000 while the Republicans are spending $0 on radio/TV adverts in the state, and there are no Trump campaign or leading surrogate stops planned, while Harris's trip to the border seems to have lifted turnout in that area.

[lpm]

Is that 2am British winter time?

Yes. USA east coast is back to being 5 hours wrong tomorrow. Florida closes at 7 pm, but 8pm eastern for the panhandle.

In 2000 Florida was called at 00:50 UK time.

[lpm]

Georgia could be very fast. Polls close at 7pm. Early votes are counted in advance. Soon after midnight UK time we could know if it's as close as expected. An early call for Trump suggests a long night. Any early indication that Biden could win and it's early celebrations.

North Carolina closes 7:30. Also counts the early vote in advance.

Minnesota is another good one. Early vote in advance but polls close at 8pm, 2 a.m. UK time.

Texas, Arizona and Nevada also count early votes in advance.

ETA Florida and Georgia don't allow late votes showing up in the mail over the next few days. Has to be there by 7 pm or they go in the trash. Which is bad for voting rights when a candidate is sabotaging the mail system but good for getting an early result.

ETA 2: correction, North Carolina and Georgia don't count the early vote in advance, but they do process them. I think it's this processing that causes the big delay elsewhere like Pennsylvania.

[Grumble]

Georgia could be very fast. Polls close at 7pm. Early votes are counted in advance. Soon after midnight UK time we could know if it's as close as expected. An early call for Trump suggests a long night. Any early indication that Biden could win and it's early celebrations.

North Carolina closes 7:30. Also counts the early vote in advance.

Minnesota is another good one. Early vote in advance but polls close at 8pm, 2 a.m. UK time.

Texas, Arizona and Nevada also count early votes in advance.

ETA Florida and Georgia don't allow late votes showing up in the mail over the next few days. Has to be there by 7 pm or they go in the trash. Which is bad for voting rights when a candidate is sabotaging the mail system but good for getting an early result.

ETA 2: correction, North Carolina and Georgia don't count the early vote in advance, but they do process them. I think it's this processing that causes the big delay elsewhere like Pennsylvania.

By processing do you mean taking them out of the envelope and verifying that it’s a valid ballot?