US Election

[EACLucifer]

Really got to wonder about the Republican anti-mask stuff, given that something like 3/4 of Americans report always wearing them, and 2/3 want a national mask mandate.

Looks like the Dems see it, too. Might be an end to the moratorium on contrast ads, too.

[FlammableFlower]

Trump is all about projecting an image, particularly of strength and he'll do it if it damn well kills him.

"I might be immune"

Ffs

[Little waster]

Meanwhile stories that I genuinely missed because of all the attention Typhoid Trump was sucking in:-

Shrieking lunatic and Don Jr's snort-buddy Kimberley Gilfoyle, Trump's head of fundraising was sacked from Fox for sexual harassment of a female assistant, persistently exposing herself, showing her dick-pics and p.rnographic videos and demanding she sleep with powerful men while working to protect Roger Ailes from his accusations of sexual harassment by threatening and attempt to discredit the witnesses against him. One for the Christian Conservatives there.


Melania Trump hates children and Christmas and probably wants to call it Winterval and says "Happy holidays" because of Muslims and liberal atheists. Something something something War on Christmas.


Strange times.

[Little waster]

Oh and Trump's claim that mail-in ballots for Trump were being thrown into creeks refers to three trays of mail found in a ditch none of which contained a single mail-in ballot paper for anyone.


The wastepaper basket story appears to a little more substantial with a grand total of SEVEN military mail-in ballot papers for Trump turning up in a bin in Pennsylvania which is now under investigation. In other news Biden leads in Pennsylvania (electoral popn : > 10 million) by 5-8% or approximately 100,000 wastepaper baskets' worth of discarded votes.

[Grumble]

Trump claims that Biden is in favour of abortion up to and after birth.

[dyqik]

Trump claims that Biden is in favour of abortion up to and after birth.

That's a common line from him.

No one has yet asked him what the f.ck he thinks he means by that.

[FlammableFlower]

Trump claims that Biden is in favour of abortion up to and after birth.

WTF? After?!?

[Grumble]

Trump claims that Biden is in favour of abortion up to and after birth.

WTF? After?!?

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/sta ... 20064?s=21

[lpm]

Presumably someone on Fox said something and Trump has parrotted it back in garbled form.

[lpm]

Is CNN's Biden +16, post debate, considered good or bad?

[Grumble]

Presumably someone on Fox said something and Trump has parrotted it back in garbled form.

He went 11 hours without tweeting.

[dyqik]

Is CNN's Biden +16, post debate, considered good or bad?

Interestingly, it's only a 1-2 point drop for Trump from the 538 average, but a 5 point shift in undecideds to Biden. Which suggests it may not be a complete outlier.

[lpm]

There's a bit of muddle (elsewhere, not here) on how national averages translate to state leads.

Have to remember Clinton won by +2 but lost the Electoral College. She needed to be +3 to win.

So if Biden is +8 nationally, that's about 6 points better than Clinton. If he's +10 then around 8 points.

Trump won Mich, PA, WI and Florida by +1, approx. So if Biden is 6 or 8 better than Clinton then he would be polling in the region of +5 or +7 in these states.

He's currently +8, 6, 6 and 3 in these states respectively (per 538). So this supports the +10 nationally sort of picture, but also shows Florida is lagging the other states. f.cking Florida. Obviously not all states move in lockstep, doing well with old white women but poorly with Cuban Hispanics will have a different impact in different places.

Trump won Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia by +4/5 vs Clinton. Currently Biden +3, +1 and -1 respectively. This would be consistent with a national +8 picture.

Trump won Ohio, Texas and Iowa by +8/9 vs Clinton. So would need Biden to be nationally in the area of +11 to win these. He's not in that zone, he's 0, -4, -3 respectively.

The mistake people often make is to see a poll with Biden +10 nationally, know that Trump won Texas +9, and think that gives Biden a +1 win. It in fact would translate to -1, all other things being equal.

[EACLucifer]

He's declaring he's blocking stimulus because he doesn't want money going to blue states. Aside from being evil, it is unlikely to play well outside his narrow base with an electorate that thinks getting stimulus sorted is more urgent than getting another Supreme Court judge.

ETA: This is how the stockmarkets are reacting to this news

[monkey]

And now he seems to have given up on getting a vaccine by the election. (he accepted the FDA's rules on safety assessment, which means there's not enough time to get one out).

[EACLucifer]

Meanwhile stories that I genuinely missed because of all the attention Typhoid Trump was sucking in:-

Shrieking lunatic and Don Jr's snort-buddy Kimberley Gilfoyle, Trump's head of fundraising was sacked from Fox for sexual harassment of a female assistant, persistently exposing herself, showing her dick-pics and p.rnographic videos and demanding she sleep with powerful men while working to protect Roger Ailes from his accusations of sexual harassment by threatening and attempt to discredit the witnesses against him. One for the Christian Conservatives there.


Melania Trump hates children and Christmas and probably wants to call it Winterval and says "Happy holidays" because of Muslims and liberal atheists. Something something something War on Christmas.


Strange times.

Also worth mentioning his former campaign manager Brad Parscale - demoted to advisor after his lacklustre first post-Covid rally - holing up with a gun and getting detained for psychiatric assessment by police, with it soon emerging he was probably a domestic abuser, and is under investigation for making off with tens of millions of dollars from Trump's campaign.

[dyqik]

And another Biden + mid-teens poll.

[lpm]

It feels a bit like 2008.

Obama had a small but steady lead over McCain around this time. Nothing as big as Biden's lead now. The final weeks played out against the background of the crash - Lehmans, emergencies, fear. Although McCain wasn't the incumbent Bush and the Republicans dragged him down.

The polls turned towards Obama, everyone seemed to make their decisions, and it just unravelled for McCain. No energy left, no fundraising. Obama ended up winning +7 and a large 365-173 EC victory.

This year voters are making the decision to back Biden, it's unravelling for Trump and the polls are starting to stretch Biden's lead.

[Grumble]

On the 538 forecast as we get closer to the big day and the uncertainty goes down they are increasing Biden’s chances by about 1%/day.

[dyqik]

It feels a bit like 2008.

Obama had a small but steady lead over McCain around this time. Nothing as big as Biden's lead now. The final weeks played out against the background of the crash - Lehmans, emergencies, fear. Although McCain wasn't the incumbent Bush and the Republicans dragged him down.

The polls turned towards Obama, everyone seemed to make their decisions, and it just unravelled for McCain. No energy left, no fundraising. Obama ended up winning +7 and a large 365-173 EC victory.

This year voters are making the decision to back Biden, it's unravelling for Trump and the polls are starting to stretch Biden's lead.

And Trump is visibly taking credit for the collapse, rather than just being a bystander running for office.

[dyqik]

If Trump was in fact a Kremlin agent, and was about to lose all usefulness due to losing the election, then infecting as many of the senior career members of government, including the military, as possible, and collapsing the economy would be a move to expect to happen.

[Martin_B]

Trump has posted posted a tweet saying "If I am sent a Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks they will go out to people IMMEDIATELY. I am ready to sign right now."

Can the Dems write a bill called the Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks, including full funding for the Affordable Care Act and abortion clinics, and send it to the White House right now? I think he's too amped up to read it.

[Vertigowooyay]

The gentlest of gentle attack ads:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0q5IpKs ... e=youtu.be

[El Pollo Diablo]

On the 538 forecast as we get closer to the big day and the uncertainty goes down they are increasing Biden’s chances by about 1%/day.

Yep, we're down to Trump having roughly a 1 in 6 chance now. If Biden wins, his average win level in 538's simulations is bigger than Trump's maximum win.

Following on from the earlier musing about why trump would stymie the stimulus, it is hard to understand. It doesn't fit with any obvious motivation, to me anyway. The only thing I can currently think is that he's accepted the probably election loss and is now scorching the earth to make Biden's presidency all the harder.

[FlammableFlower]

On the 538 forecast as we get closer to the big day and the uncertainty goes down they are increasing Biden’s chances by about 1%/day.

Yep, we're down to Trump having roughly a 1 in 6 chance now. If Biden wins, his average win level in 538's simulations is bigger than Trump's maximum win.

Following on from the earlier musing about why trump would stymie the stimulus, it is hard to understand. It doesn't fit with any obvious motivation, to me anyway. The only thing I can currently think is that he's accepted the probably election loss and is now scorching the earth to make Biden's presidency all the harder.

Yeah, trying to work it out... I've got 3/4 reasons that come to mind:

1) a) Scorched earth (GOP) - we're not going to win, leave everything as bad as possible for the democrats and we'll just spend the next 4-8 years sniping and blocking as we did under Obama

1) b) Scorched earth (personal) - I'm not going to win so f.ck you all

2) Ultimate brinkmanship... painting the failure to get a deal as the fault of Pelosi and the democrats, causing a nasty shock that will bring them running back to the the table and agreeing to Trump/GOP terms

3) He's just completely lost it