US Election

[lpm]

He completely lost it. Last night he was incapable.

He tweeted the cancellation late afternoon, contradicted it early evening, saw something on Fox later on and promised airlines their money, then offered to sign any bill Pelosi sends so long as his name was on the cheques. Muddled in with this "messaging" were retweets of conspiracy idiocy, attacks on Obama, attacks on Chris Wallace, all sorts of random stuff.

[Little waster]

On the 538 forecast as we get closer to the big day and the uncertainty goes down they are increasing Biden’s chances by about 1%/day.

Yep, we're down to Trump having roughly a 1 in 6 chance now. If Biden wins, his average win level in 538's simulations is bigger than Trump's maximum win.

Following on from the earlier musing about why trump would stymie the stimulus, it is hard to understand. It doesn't fit with any obvious motivation, to me anyway. The only thing I can currently think is that he's accepted the probably election loss and is now scorching the earth to make Biden's presidency all the harder.

Yeah, trying to work it out... I've got 3/4 reasons that come to mind:

1) a) Scorched earth (GOP) - we're not going to win, leave everything as bad as possible for the democrats and we'll just spend the next 4-8 years sniping and blocking as we did under Obama

1) b) Scorched earth (personal) - I'm not going to win so f.ck you all

2) Ultimate brinkmanship... painting the failure to get a deal as the fault of Pelosi and the democrats, causing a nasty shock that will bring them running back to the the table and agreeing to Trump/GOP terms

3) He's just completely lost it

4) Given up on even attempting to win the election, even with widespread voter suppression and an baked-in EC advantage, and instead is just going for a coup either via SCOTUS or militarily.

[Grumble]

Biden saying debate shouldn’t go ahead if Trump still has COVID-19. I can’t decide if that’s playing into Trump’s hands or not.

[FlammableFlower]

Biden saying debate shouldn’t go ahead if Trump still has COVID-19. I can’t decide if that’s playing into Trump’s hands or not.

Dunno, but I like the thought that now Biden can demand Trump get tested before a debate. Trump can always refuse and claim Biden is weak/scared, but I should imagine that only plays well to his base again and not outside that.

[headshot]

It would be very easy for Biden to pivot on that and say, "I'm not scared, but I am concerned about your health, and mine, and the health of the crew, the moderator and audience. I'm also deeply concerned about the message that this sends to the American public, that someone who is Covid+ can carry on as normal and spread the virus and not quarantine to suppress it. We will only defeat this virus if we follow the guidance issued by scientists and healthcare professionals to the letter."

Done. It paints Trump and a selfish anti-science super-spreader.

[AMS]

Yeah, trying to work it out... I've got 3/4 reasons that come to mind:

1) a) Scorched earth (GOP) - we're not going to win, leave everything as bad as possible for the democrats and we'll just spend the next 4-8 years sniping and blocking as we did under Obama

The risk with this one is that there's a reasonable chance (50%?) of the Dems ending up with full control of House/Senate/White House for at least two years, in which case the GOP won't be in a position to block anything. Then the Dems get to roll out all the stimulus stuff they want, plus the "return to normal" as a vaccine rolls out, just in time for everything to look much rosier for the next electoral cycle.

[headshot]

Yeah, trying to work it out... I've got 3/4 reasons that come to mind:

1) a) Scorched earth (GOP) - we're not going to win, leave everything as bad as possible for the democrats and we'll just spend the next 4-8 years sniping and blocking as we did under Obama

The risk with this one is that there's a reasonable chance (50%?) of the Dems ending up with full control of House/Senate/White House for at least two years, in which case the GOP won't be in a position to block anything. Then the Dems get to roll out all the stimulus stuff they want, plus the "return to normal" as a vaccine rolls out, just in time for everything to look much rosier for the next electoral cycle.

And pack the Supreme Court and redraw electoral boundaries.

[Little waster]

Yeah, trying to work it out... I've got 3/4 reasons that come to mind:

1) a) Scorched earth (GOP) - we're not going to win, leave everything as bad as possible for the democrats and we'll just spend the next 4-8 years sniping and blocking as we did under Obama

The risk with this one is that there's a reasonable chance (50%?) of the Dems ending up with full control of House/Senate/White House for at least two years, in which case the GOP won't be in a position to block anything. Then the Dems get to roll out all the stimulus stuff they want, plus the "return to normal" as a vaccine rolls out, just in time for everything to look much rosier for the next electoral cycle.

The real nightmare scenario for the Repugs is that having lashed themselves so tightly to Trump's mast he takes the whole f.cking lot of them down with them.

You can see a scenario where in the aftermath of a Democrat landslide, a whole bunch of Republican skeletons come tumbling out of every closet with no longer any Presidential pardon or Republican control of the Judiciary to uphold the code of omerta. At that point the Republicans form a circular firing squad in an attempt to save their own skins and the whole corrupt enterprise descends into public infighting, betrayal and prosecutions.

Meanwhile a furious electorate turn on the rump of a GOP establishment which was blatantly complicit (with a few exceptions) in the ever-building catalogue of the Trump Administration's crimes and cock-ups. That would shred the GOP's reputation for a generation or more, particularly if some of the more egregious examples of corruption, criminality and even out-right treason prove to be true as they can wave goodbye to any pretence of being the party of law and order, patriotism and the military.

[FlammableFlower]

Thing is, it might take while for the Trumpist cult to subside - no one likes being told they've been sold a pup. If Biden wins big, there's going to be a lot of very pissed off Trump voters who have drunk deep of that cup and will be giving the GOP hell for not being "pure" enough (to Trump-ism (whatever that really is)).

(also see UK for when Brexit goes to sh.t)

[lpm]

Well, Corbyn lost in 2017 because of Blairites, and it was the failure to purge Blairites that caused the loss in 2019. They should apply the same principle to the Trump Party and see how they do in 2024.

[lpm]

Meanwhile, Trump is making a play for California. Clever strategy to make that a focus for the run in. With its 55 EC votes it gives him a path to victory even if he loses PA and FL.

[El Pollo Diablo]

How long before someone puts something around or beneath the massive TRUMP sign in LA?

[EACLucifer]

Yeah, trying to work it out... I've got 3/4 reasons that come to mind:

1) a) Scorched earth (GOP) - we're not going to win, leave everything as bad as possible for the democrats and we'll just spend the next 4-8 years sniping and blocking as we did under Obama

1) b) Scorched earth (personal) - I'm not going to win so f.ck you all

2) Ultimate brinkmanship... painting the failure to get a deal as the fault of Pelosi and the democrats, causing a nasty shock that will bring them running back to the the table and agreeing to Trump/GOP terms

3) He's just completely lost it

4) Given up on even attempting to win the election, even with widespread voter suppression and an baked-in EC advantage, and instead is just going for a coup either via SCOTUS or militarily.

A coup via SCOTUS doesn't really work, because that's not how American elections work. It could be a faint finger on the scales in a very close election, but to steal a state via SCOTUS, it would need to be damn close - Florida 2000 was on a fraction of a percent knife edge either way - and stealing multiple states would be even harder.

A coup by the military seems unlikely too. He's just infected one top admiraland put the Joint Chiefs of Staff in quarantine. Pretty much every former general seems to be denouncing him, inc. Gen. Hayden doing an RVAT ad, while polling shows the enlisted men favour Biden and the officers favour Biden a lot.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Also, apparently if Biden wins he'll be taking orders from Wales? Or something. Not sure.

[bjn]

Well, Corbyn lost in 2017 because of Blairites, and it was the failure to purge Blairites that caused the loss in 2019. They should apply the same principle to the Trump Party and see how they do in 2024.

The difference is that the party is nearly 100% behind Trump and there was nothing like Foxnews and equivalents lying for Corbyn.

[dyqik]

A coup via SCOTUS doesn't really work, because that's not how American elections work. It could be a faint finger on the scales in a very close election, but to steal a state via SCOTUS, it would need to be damn close - Florida 2000 was on a fraction of a percent knife edge either way - and stealing multiple states would be even harder.

A coup by the military seems unlikely too. He's just infected one top admiraland put the Joint Chiefs of Staff in quarantine. Pretty much every former general seems to be denouncing him, inc. Gen. Hayden doing an RVAT ad, while polling shows the enlisted men favour Biden and the officers favour Biden a lot.

The most pressing risk along those lines is probably coup via police unions and red state National Guards (the latter part is much less likely than the former, and the former isn't likely). Police not stopping Trumpist gangs at polling stations is a possibility, in some places. But that's still only a small push and it can't overcome a large Biden majority.

[jimbob]

On the 538 forecast as we get closer to the big day and the uncertainty goes down they are increasing Biden’s chances by about 1%/day.

Yep, we're down to Trump having roughly a 1 in 6 chance now. If Biden wins, his average win level in 538's simulations is bigger than Trump's maximum win.

Following on from the earlier musing about why trump would stymie the stimulus, it is hard to understand. It doesn't fit with any obvious motivation, to me anyway. The only thing I can currently think is that he's accepted the probably election loss and is now scorching the earth to make Biden's presidency all the harder.

Yeah, trying to work it out... I've got 3/4 reasons that come to mind:

1) a) Scorched earth (GOP) - we're not going to win, leave everything as bad as possible for the democrats and we'll just spend the next 4-8 years sniping and blocking as we did under Obama

1) b) Scorched earth (personal) - I'm not going to win so f.ck you all

2) Ultimate brinkmanship... painting the failure to get a deal as the fault of Pelosi and the democrats, causing a nasty shock that will bring them running back to the the table and agreeing to Trump/GOP terms

3) He's just completely lost it

I'm going for 3. He also seems to have reversed it. He's erratic, prone to rage, high on steroids that seem to be emulate the manic phase of bipolar disorder and people are laughing at his misfortune.

[monkey]

Yeah, trying to work it out... I've got 3/4 reasons that come to mind:

1) a) Scorched earth (GOP) - we're not going to win, leave everything as bad as possible for the democrats and we'll just spend the next 4-8 years sniping and blocking as we did under Obama

1) b) Scorched earth (personal) - I'm not going to win so f.ck you all

2) Ultimate brinkmanship... painting the failure to get a deal as the fault of Pelosi and the democrats, causing a nasty shock that will bring them running back to the the table and agreeing to Trump/GOP terms

3) He's just completely lost it

I'm going for 3. He also seems to have reversed it. He's erratic, prone to rage, high on steroids that seem to be emulate the manic phase of bipolar disorder and people are laughing at his misfortune.

Did he ever have it to lose? I suspect that he doesn't have as many people around him to say "don't do that" because he's contagious. So we're seeing the unfiltered Trump (which may be a bit worse due to medication).

[bolo]

And pack the Supreme Court and redraw electoral boundaries.

Electoral boundaries are determined by the states, not the federal government.

[headshot]

Well, here’s hoping to down-ticket successes too then!

[monkey]

And pack the Supreme Court and redraw electoral boundaries.

Electoral boundaries are determined by the states, not the federal government.

The court may end up deciding if changes are constitutional or not.

[JQH]

The gentlest of gentle attack ads:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0q5IpKs ... e=youtu.be

Trump will probably counter with a picture of Hitler with a dog. I certainly would.

[dyqik]

The gentlest of gentle attack ads:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0q5IpKs ... e=youtu.be

Trump will probably counter with a picture of Hitler with a dog. I certainly would.

Yeah, but you wouldn't claim that it was your dog.

[bolo]

Here in Virginia, there is a state constitutional amendment on the ballot that would take redistricting out of the hands of the state legislature and governor and give it to a nonpartisan commission. The Dems fought hard for this, until late last year when they suddenly found themselves with a Dem governor and a Dem controlled state legislature and a chance at getting their own back through some pro-Dem gerrymandering.

It is, I have to admit, hard to decide how to vote on this measure.

[jimbob]

Here in Virginia, there is a state constitutional amendment on the ballot that would take redistricting out of the hands of the state legislature and governor and give it to a nonpartisan commission. The Dems fought hard for this, until late last year when they suddenly found themselves with a Dem governor and a Dem controlled state legislature and a chance at getting their own back through some pro-Dem gerrymandering.

It is, I have to admit, hard to decide how to vote on this measure.

Nonpartisan commission. The less chance of change in any political setup, the more chance for patronage