US Election

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EACLucifer
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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:52 pm

dyqik wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:36 am
And that he's got plenty of money on hand for campaigning.
That's good news for him, isn't it? It would be really bad for him to be short of money at a point Biden's running beautifully produced national minute long adverts narrated by Sam Elliot during major sporting events :lol:

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:11 pm

Biden is now five points in front in Iowa, according to Monmouth University.


Lol.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:12 pm

538 have got a "what if" style map thing going on:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... ction-map/

If Biden wins Iowa, Trump has a less than 1% chance of winning the election.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

EACLucifer
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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:36 pm

Fivethirtyeight has put up a model where one can see what is predicted for a variety of custom scenarios

One take home is that while everyone is worrying about a long, protracted count in Pennsylvania - and it is a very real worry - there are some states where if Biden picks them up on the night, Trump's chances are very low. His current chance, according to the model, is 12%.

If Biden picks up Florida, Georgia, Ohio or Texas, Trump's chances drop to <1%. Biden's 538 poll average margin - not predicted vote - is +3.5, +0.8, -0.2 and -1.2 percentage points respectively.

If Biden picks up North Carolina, Trump's chances drop to 1%. Biden's lead there is 3.1

If Biden picks up Arizona, Trump's chances drop to 2%. Biden's lead there is 3.7

If Biden picks up Nebraska-2, Trump's chances drop to 3%. Biden's lead there is 7.2

Biden has a route to victory without any of the above, although a clean sweep of them for Trump would make him the favourite.

For context, if Biden bags New Hampshire, Trump's chances nearly halve, ending up at 7%. Biden's lead there is 11.6.

In case one wants stuff to look at on election night, because we aren't really going to know much about Pennsylvania until they start counting postal votes.

ETA: Add what El Pollo Diablo said about Iowa to the mix.

EACLucifer
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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:38 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:11 pm
Biden is now five points in front in Iowa, according to Monmouth University.


Lol.
This is particularly interesting given that a third of the vote or so has come in in Iowa already, and quite recently, ie during the survey period for polls publishing now.

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lpm
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:45 pm

It's snowed already in Iowa. I'm not saying that like it means something, just that it's a hellava weird place.

There's a pretty high chance, around 9%, that it will be decided by the single state of Pennsylvania, and the judges will hand it to Trump and break the Republic.
I'll miss him after he's fled to Riyadh

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:47 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:38 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:11 pm
Biden is now five points in front in Iowa, according to Monmouth University.


Lol.
This is particularly interesting given that a third of the vote or so has come in in Iowa already, and quite recently, ie during the survey period for polls publishing now.
There's also a fun effect here where the likely voter screen is shifting things to the Democrats rather than to the Republicans like it normally does. This is probably because so many Democrats have already voted, and so are certain voters. So the "high turnout" model only occurs if loads of Republicans turnout between now and election day.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:05 pm

I wonder what effect Borat is going to have on the race?

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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:47 pm

2020, full of things you didn't expect hear...

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:52 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:47 pm
2020, full of things you didn't expect hear...
And didn't want to see.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:19 pm

dyqik wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:52 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:47 pm
2020, full of things you didn't expect hear...
And didn't want to see.
One still was bad enough.

A couple of things do stand out as to how bad it is;

Firstly, it's a minimum of despicable, diabolical and indefensible
Secondly, how old was the actress in question? Was this criminal, or merely disgusting?
Likewise when was the first time her supposed age was mentioned? Was it just at the end of the scene, or earlier?

It kinda feels possibly relevant regaring Giuliani the Ratfucker's conduct towards young women that he he suddenly acquired a 20yo spokeswoman earlier this year and nobody seems to know how she ended up as his spokeswoman.

EACLucifer
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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:20 pm

dyqik wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:47 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:38 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:11 pm
Biden is now five points in front in Iowa, according to Monmouth University.


Lol.
This is particularly interesting given that a third of the vote or so has come in in Iowa already, and quite recently, ie during the survey period for polls publishing now.
There's also a fun effect here where the likely voter screen is shifting things to the Democrats rather than to the Republicans like it normally does. This is probably because so many Democrats have already voted, and so are certain voters. So the "high turnout" model only occurs if loads of Republicans turnout between now and election day.
And up three with the NYT/Siena Upshot, suggesting it perhaps isn't an outlier.

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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:28 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:19 pm
dyqik wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:52 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:47 pm
2020, full of things you didn't expect hear...
And didn't want to see.
One still was bad enough.

A couple of things do stand out as to how bad it is;

Firstly, it's a minimum of despicable, diabolical and indefensible
Secondly, how old was the actress in question? Was this criminal, or merely disgusting?
Likewise when was the first time her supposed age was mentioned? Was it just at the end of the scene, or earlier?

It kinda feels possibly relevant regaring Giuliani the Ratfucker's conduct towards young women that he he suddenly acquired a 20yo spokeswoman earlier this year and nobody seems to know how she ended up as his spokeswoman.
From what I've read the actor in question is 24 made up to look much younger. As such it just fits the merely disgusting... which still isn't great.

EACLucifer
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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:32 pm

Oh and they tried to photo-op and actual journalist with an enormous book of supposed healthcare achievements...which appears to be entirely blank on the inside.

Image

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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:34 pm

More China fun for Trump:
Major Republican Party and Trump fundraiser Elliott Broidy pleaded guilty Tuesday to acting as an unregistered foreign agent, admitting to accepting millions of dollars to secretly lobby the Trump administration for Malaysian and Chinese interests.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:36 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:28 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:19 pm
dyqik wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:52 pm


And didn't want to see.
One still was bad enough.

A couple of things do stand out as to how bad it is;

Firstly, it's a minimum of despicable, diabolical and indefensible
Secondly, how old was the actress in question? Was this criminal, or merely disgusting?
Likewise when was the first time her supposed age was mentioned? Was it just at the end of the scene, or earlier?

It kinda feels possibly relevant regaring Giuliani the Ratfucker's conduct towards young women that he he suddenly acquired a 20yo spokeswoman earlier this year and nobody seems to know how she ended up as his spokeswoman.
From what I've read the actor in question is 24 made up to look much younger. As such it just fits the merely disgusting... which still isn't great.
Although the set up for this was that it was a scheme to offer a bribe to the Trump administration on behalf of the Kazakh government. Which brings a different kind of criminality into it.

EACLucifer
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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:45 pm

dyqik wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:36 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:28 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:19 pm


One still was bad enough.

A couple of things do stand out as to how bad it is;

Firstly, it's a minimum of despicable, diabolical and indefensible
Secondly, how old was the actress in question? Was this criminal, or merely disgusting?
Likewise when was the first time her supposed age was mentioned? Was it just at the end of the scene, or earlier?

It kinda feels possibly relevant regaring Giuliani the Ratfucker's conduct towards young women that he he suddenly acquired a 20yo spokeswoman earlier this year and nobody seems to know how she ended up as his spokeswoman.
From what I've read the actor in question is 24 made up to look much younger. As such it just fits the merely disgusting... which still isn't great.
Although the set up for this was that it was a scheme to offer a bribe to the Trump administration on behalf of the Kazakh government. Which brings a different kind of criminality into it.
Indeed it does.

And we don't yet know how old he thought she was - Sacha Baron-Cohen claims she's fifteen at the end of the scene, but it's possible it might have been mentioned earlier.

The photoshoppers are already having fun. Decorum demands this one go behind a spoiler.

Spoiler:

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Re: US Election

Post by Grumble » Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:07 pm

Martin_B wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:34 am
lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:11 pm
Jesus, Biden is really slumping in the polls today.

Not clear if it's just a freak day or the start of disaster.

He's plummeted from +10.7 in the 538 average to +10.4.
Given this rate of slump, Trump will take the lead in 35 days. Luckily the election is 14 days away. ;)

Maybe Trump just didn't say anything stupid yesterday (or no more stupid than normal) and the poll is just reverting to the mean.
All the way down to 9.9% now.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Re: US Election

Post by Brightonian » Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:38 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:45 pm
dyqik wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:36 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:28 pm

From what I've read the actor in question is 24 made up to look much younger. As such it just fits the merely disgusting... which still isn't great.
Although the set up for this was that it was a scheme to offer a bribe to the Trump administration on behalf of the Kazakh government. Which brings a different kind of criminality into it.
Indeed it does.

And we don't yet know how old he thought she was - Sacha Baron-Cohen claims she's fifteen at the end of the scene, but it's possible it might have been mentioned earlier.

The photoshoppers are already having fun. Decorum demands this one go behind a spoiler.

Spoiler:
Apparently he was just tucking in his shirt. Of course, one has to lie down to do that.

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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:57 pm

Watching Obama's speech in Philadelphia - hell's teeth, it shows you what's been missing from the US presidency.

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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:17 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:57 pm
Watching Obama's speech in Philadelphia - hell's teeth, it shows you what's been missing from the US presidency.
Rose-tinted spectacles I think.

Who can forget the outrage that was khakigate (spoilered for those of a nervous disposition).

Spoiler:


Or that time he carried a cup of coffee.

Impeach this monster!!!

Oh the humanity! :shock: :(
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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:22 pm

I liked it when he became the first Nobel Prize winner to drone strike another Nobel Prize winner (Doctors Without Borders).

Stepping up deportations of law-abiding parents was very cool as well.

And who can forget his enormous success in closing down the illegal torture prison the US operates in Cuba?
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:32 pm

oooh, interesting - Harrison two points in front in South Carolina according to one poll
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:38 pm

Brightonian wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:38 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:45 pm
dyqik wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:36 pm

Although the set up for this was that it was a scheme to offer a bribe to the Trump administration on behalf of the Kazakh government. Which brings a different kind of criminality into it.
Indeed it does.

And we don't yet know how old he thought she was - Sacha Baron-Cohen claims she's fifteen at the end of the scene, but it's possible it might have been mentioned earlier.

The photoshoppers are already having fun. Decorum demands this one go behind a spoiler.

Spoiler:
Apparently he was just tucking in his shirt. Of course, one has to lie down to do that.
I think we need to be cautious about inferring too much from a single still released by a very unethical man trying to drum up publicity, to be fair. If anyone deserves it, it's Rudy the Ratfucker, but it doesn't mean we can trust SBC.

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:38 pm

Has something happened in Iowa? Greenfield is suddenly trailing.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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