And that he's got plenty of money on hand for campaigning.
That's good news for him, isn't it? It would be really bad for him to be short of money at a point Biden's running beautifully produced national minute long adverts narrated by Sam Elliot during major sporting events
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:11 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
Biden is now five points in front in Iowa, according to Monmouth University.
Lol.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:12 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
538 have got a "what if" style map thing going on:
One take home is that while everyone is worrying about a long, protracted count in Pennsylvania - and it is a very real worry - there are some states where if Biden picks them up on the night, Trump's chances are very low. His current chance, according to the model, is 12%.
If Biden picks up Florida, Georgia, Ohio or Texas, Trump's chances drop to <1%. Biden's 538 poll average margin - not predicted vote - is +3.5, +0.8, -0.2 and -1.2 percentage points respectively.
If Biden picks up North Carolina, Trump's chances drop to 1%. Biden's lead there is 3.1
If Biden picks up Arizona, Trump's chances drop to 2%. Biden's lead there is 3.7
If Biden picks up Nebraska-2, Trump's chances drop to 3%. Biden's lead there is 7.2
Biden has a route to victory without any of the above, although a clean sweep of them for Trump would make him the favourite.
For context, if Biden bags New Hampshire, Trump's chances nearly halve, ending up at 7%. Biden's lead there is 11.6.
In case one wants stuff to look at on election night, because we aren't really going to know much about Pennsylvania until they start counting postal votes.
ETA: Add what El Pollo Diablo said about Iowa to the mix.
Biden is now five points in front in Iowa, according to Monmouth University.
Lol.
This is particularly interesting given that a third of the vote or so has come in in Iowa already, and quite recently, ie during the survey period for polls publishing now.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:45 pm
by lpm
It's snowed already in Iowa. I'm not saying that like it means something, just that it's a hellava weird place.
There's a pretty high chance, around 9%, that it will be decided by the single state of Pennsylvania, and the judges will hand it to Trump and break the Republic.
Biden is now five points in front in Iowa, according to Monmouth University.
Lol.
This is particularly interesting given that a third of the vote or so has come in in Iowa already, and quite recently, ie during the survey period for polls publishing now.
There's also a fun effect here where the likely voter screen is shifting things to the Democrats rather than to the Republicans like it normally does. This is probably because so many Democrats have already voted, and so are certain voters. So the "high turnout" model only occurs if loads of Republicans turnout between now and election day.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:05 pm
by dyqik
I wonder what effect Borat is going to have on the race?
A couple of things do stand out as to how bad it is;
Firstly, it's a minimum of despicable, diabolical and indefensible
Secondly, how old was the actress in question? Was this criminal, or merely disgusting?
Likewise when was the first time her supposed age was mentioned? Was it just at the end of the scene, or earlier?
It kinda feels possibly relevant regaring Giuliani the Ratfucker's conduct towards young women that he he suddenly acquired a 20yo spokeswoman earlier this year and nobody seems to know how she ended up as his spokeswoman.
Biden is now five points in front in Iowa, according to Monmouth University.
Lol.
This is particularly interesting given that a third of the vote or so has come in in Iowa already, and quite recently, ie during the survey period for polls publishing now.
There's also a fun effect here where the likely voter screen is shifting things to the Democrats rather than to the Republicans like it normally does. This is probably because so many Democrats have already voted, and so are certain voters. So the "high turnout" model only occurs if loads of Republicans turnout between now and election day.
And up three with the NYT/Siena Upshot, suggesting it perhaps isn't an outlier.
A couple of things do stand out as to how bad it is;
Firstly, it's a minimum of despicable, diabolical and indefensible
Secondly, how old was the actress in question? Was this criminal, or merely disgusting?
Likewise when was the first time her supposed age was mentioned? Was it just at the end of the scene, or earlier?
It kinda feels possibly relevant regaring Giuliani the Ratfucker's conduct towards young women that he he suddenly acquired a 20yo spokeswoman earlier this year and nobody seems to know how she ended up as his spokeswoman.
From what I've read the actor in question is 24 made up to look much younger. As such it just fits the merely disgusting... which still isn't great.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:32 pm
by EACLucifer
Oh and they tried to photo-op and actual journalist with an enormous book of supposed healthcare achievements...which appears to be entirely blank on the inside.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:34 pm
by FlammableFlower
More China fun for Trump:
Major Republican Party and Trump fundraiser Elliott Broidy pleaded guilty Tuesday to acting as an unregistered foreign agent, admitting to accepting millions of dollars to secretly lobby the Trump administration for Malaysian and Chinese interests.
A couple of things do stand out as to how bad it is;
Firstly, it's a minimum of despicable, diabolical and indefensible
Secondly, how old was the actress in question? Was this criminal, or merely disgusting?
Likewise when was the first time her supposed age was mentioned? Was it just at the end of the scene, or earlier?
It kinda feels possibly relevant regaring Giuliani the Ratfucker's conduct towards young women that he he suddenly acquired a 20yo spokeswoman earlier this year and nobody seems to know how she ended up as his spokeswoman.
From what I've read the actor in question is 24 made up to look much younger. As such it just fits the merely disgusting... which still isn't great.
Although the set up for this was that it was a scheme to offer a bribe to the Trump administration on behalf of the Kazakh government. Which brings a different kind of criminality into it.
A couple of things do stand out as to how bad it is;
Firstly, it's a minimum of despicable, diabolical and indefensible
Secondly, how old was the actress in question? Was this criminal, or merely disgusting?
Likewise when was the first time her supposed age was mentioned? Was it just at the end of the scene, or earlier?
It kinda feels possibly relevant regaring Giuliani the Ratfucker's conduct towards young women that he he suddenly acquired a 20yo spokeswoman earlier this year and nobody seems to know how she ended up as his spokeswoman.
From what I've read the actor in question is 24 made up to look much younger. As such it just fits the merely disgusting... which still isn't great.
Although the set up for this was that it was a scheme to offer a bribe to the Trump administration on behalf of the Kazakh government. Which brings a different kind of criminality into it.
Indeed it does.
And we don't yet know how old he thought she was - Sacha Baron-Cohen claims she's fifteen at the end of the scene, but it's possible it might have been mentioned earlier.
The photoshoppers are already having fun. Decorum demands this one go behind a spoiler.
From what I've read the actor in question is 24 made up to look much younger. As such it just fits the merely disgusting... which still isn't great.
Although the set up for this was that it was a scheme to offer a bribe to the Trump administration on behalf of the Kazakh government. Which brings a different kind of criminality into it.
Indeed it does.
And we don't yet know how old he thought she was - Sacha Baron-Cohen claims she's fifteen at the end of the scene, but it's possible it might have been mentioned earlier.
The photoshoppers are already having fun. Decorum demands this one go behind a spoiler.
Although the set up for this was that it was a scheme to offer a bribe to the Trump administration on behalf of the Kazakh government. Which brings a different kind of criminality into it.
Indeed it does.
And we don't yet know how old he thought she was - Sacha Baron-Cohen claims she's fifteen at the end of the scene, but it's possible it might have been mentioned earlier.
The photoshoppers are already having fun. Decorum demands this one go behind a spoiler.
I think we need to be cautious about inferring too much from a single still released by a very unethical man trying to drum up publicity, to be fair. If anyone deserves it, it's Rudy the Ratfucker, but it doesn't mean we can trust SBC.
Re: US Election
Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:38 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
Has something happened in Iowa? Greenfield is suddenly trailing.
