Scrutable

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:38 pm

Has something happened in Iowa? Greenfield is suddenly trailing.

More than a third of the vote is in, now, so be aware of weirdness about how models handle early voting.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:38 pm

Has something happened in Iowa? Greenfield is suddenly trailing.

She's ahead in the 538 average and forecast.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:39 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:38 pm

Has something happened in Iowa? Greenfield is suddenly trailing.

More than a third of the vote is in, now, so be aware of weirdness about how models handle early voting.

The partisan split here is large, as well . In Iowa, 44% of registered Democrats have voted, against 24% of registered Republicans.

But party registration is not party ID, and certainly not an actual vote.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:38 pm

I think we need to be cautious about inferring too much from a single still released by a very unethical man trying to drum up publicity, to be fair. If anyone deserves it, it's Rudy the Ratfucker, but it doesn't mean we can trust SBC.

I have a small side bet that the still is taken from a 2-second video sequence where he actually does tuck his shirt in, or otherwise adjust himself in some slightly weird old-man-with-prostate-cancer (which he is) way. Of course, if he writhes around or appears to be enjoying himself then I would be more than delighted to lose this bet.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:57 pm

The partisan split here is large, as well . In Iowa, 44% of registered Democrats have voted, against 24% of registered Republicans.

Doesn't this information provide a strong incentive for there to be a series of fires at wherever the ballot boxes are stored each evening?

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:00 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:57 pm

The partisan split here is large, as well . In Iowa, 44% of registered Democrats have voted, against 24% of registered Republicans.

Doesn't this information provide a strong incentive for there to be a series of fires at wherever the ballot boxes are stored each evening?

Yes, and there's been one already. The strong security around such boxes is a major disincentive though.

These are usually at the city/town hall type locations, with cameras. And in my town, the police HQ is in the same building.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:03 pm

Grumble wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:45 pm

bolo wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:33 pm

I am shocked, yes shocked, that you voted yes on Question 1.

What’s that?

MA ballot question (referendum) to require car makers to provide access to electronic records and software in cars.

Thank you for voting Yes to question 1.

It's only because Americans voted themselves the legal right to see stuff like car service manuals that they get put up on the internet for the rest of us. I've got the diagrams for the US (and Japanese, but it's in Japanese) versions of my own car. The UK/Euro model has some differences but in over 20 years looking I've never had a sniff of the diagrams for those.

Martin Y wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:48 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:03 pm

Grumble wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:45 pm

What’s that?

MA ballot question (referendum) to require car makers to provide access to electronic records and software in cars.

Thank you for voting Yes to question 1.

It's only because Americans voted themselves the legal right to see stuff like car service manuals that they get put up on the internet for the rest of us.

You do realise that's basically communism right there.

Vote No on Question 1 if you don't want to be sent to a Siberian salt mine.

Little waster wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:52 pm

You do realise that's basically communism right there.

Vote No on Question 1 if you don't want to be sent to a Siberian salt mine.

Strange isn't it? America is like an entirely different country sometimes.

Little waster wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:52 pm

Martin Y wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:48 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:03 pm

MA ballot question (referendum) to require car makers to provide access to electronic records and software in cars.

Thank you for voting Yes to question 1.

It's only because Americans voted themselves the legal right to see stuff like car service manuals that they get put up on the internet for the rest of us.

You do realise that's basically communism right there.

Vote No on Question 1 if you don't want to be sent to a Siberian salt mine.

Funnily enough, the only Vote No signs are outside large manufacturer owned dealerships.

Not sure if this is the best place, but it invovles Trump, so whatevs.

Trumps twitter password is/was maga2020 and he doesn't understand basic security, despite the same person guessing his password 4 years before. Also, despite having some of the best internet security people working for him, I'm assuming that this means he's too lazy to do what they tell him. I am also disappointed that the hacker didn't do something embarrassing, but understand why he didn't.

Dutch clicky, but translate seems to do a good enough job

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:59 pm

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:38 pm

I think we need to be cautious about inferring too much from a single still released by a very unethical man trying to drum up publicity, to be fair. If anyone deserves it, it's Rudy the Ratfucker, but it doesn't mean we can trust SBC.

I have a small side bet that the still is taken from a 2-second video sequence where he actually does tuck his shirt in, or otherwise adjust himself in some slightly weird old-man-with-prostate-cancer (which he is) way. Of course, if he writhes around or appears to be enjoying himself then I would be more than delighted to lose this bet.

Film reviewers who have seen the whole segment have said it's worse than the still suggests.

monkey wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:28 pm

Not sure if this is the best place, but it invovles Trump, so whatevs.

Trumps twitter password is/was maga2020 and he doesn't understand basic security, despite the same person guessing his password 4 years before. Also, despite having some of the best internet security people working for him, I'm assuming that this means he's too lazy to do what they tell him. I am also disappointed that the hacker didn't do something embarrassing, but understand why he didn't.

Dutch clicky, but translate seems to do a good enough job

Can you imagine how much trouble you’d be in? If you were not bothered about such things then it’d be a good laugh. I’d have been tempted to change the associated email and password and lock the f.cker out, but i bet Twitter would have put a stop to that quite quickly.

Grumble wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:54 pm

monkey wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:28 pm

Not sure if this is the best place, but it invovles Trump, so whatevs.

Trumps twitter password is/was maga2020 and he doesn't understand basic security, despite the same person guessing his password 4 years before. Also, despite having some of the best internet security people working for him, I'm assuming that this means he's too lazy to do what they tell him. I am also disappointed that the hacker didn't do something embarrassing, but understand why he didn't.

Dutch clicky, but translate seems to do a good enough job

Can you imagine how much trouble you’d be in? If you were not bothered about such things then it’d be a good laugh. I’d have been tempted to change the associated email and password and lock the f.cker out, but i bet Twitter would have put a stop to that quite quickly.

Yeah, probably not worth decades in a US prison that you'd get.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:22 pm

I liked it when he became the first Nobel Prize winner to drone strike another Nobel Prize winner (Doctors Without Borders).

Stepping up deportations of law-abiding parents was very cool as well.

And who can forget his enormous success in closing down the illegal torture prison the US operates in Cuba?

Hush now, America needs its father figures otherwise how will they believe everything's OK really?

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:22 pm

I liked it when he became the first Nobel Prize winner to drone strike another Nobel Prize winner (Doctors Without Borders).

Stepping up deportations of law-abiding parents was very cool as well.

And who can forget his enormous success in closing down the illegal torture prison the US operates in Cuba?

You're right, he's as bad as trump.

Bit of an exaggeration there, EPD. I think the truth is probably somewhere between your "they're all the same" position and LW's jokey hagiography (which is what I was responding to).

discovolante wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:22 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:22 pm

I liked it when he became the first Nobel Prize winner to drone strike another Nobel Prize winner (Doctors Without Borders).

Stepping up deportations of law-abiding parents was very cool as well.

And who can forget his enormous success in closing down the illegal torture prison the US operates in Cuba?

Hush now, America needs its father figures otherwise how will they believe everything's OK really?

Well nobody else gets to think everything's ok really, so why should they?

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:15 pm

discovolante wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:22 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:22 pm

I liked it when he became the first Nobel Prize winner to drone strike another Nobel Prize winner (Doctors Without Borders).

Stepping up deportations of law-abiding parents was very cool as well.

And who can forget his enormous success in closing down the illegal torture prison the US operates in Cuba?

Hush now, America needs its father figures otherwise how will they believe everything's OK really?

Well nobody else gets to think everything's ok really, so why should they?

Because if USAians stop thinking they're exceptional the flag industry would collapse, and that must account for a significant chunk of GDP, given the number of flags I see.

monkey wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:21 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:15 pm

discovolante wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:22 pm

Hush now, America needs its father figures otherwise how will they believe everything's OK really?

Well nobody else gets to think everything's ok really, so why should they?

Because if USAians stop thinking they're exceptional the flag industry would collapse, and that must account for a significant chunk of GDP, given the number of flags I see.

Chinese GDP, anyway.

Grumble wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:54 pm

monkey wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:28 pm

Trumps twitter password is/was maga2020 and he doesn't understand basic security, despite the same person guessing his password 4 years before. Also, despite having some of the best internet security people working for him, I'm assuming that this means he's too lazy to do what they tell him. I am also disappointed that the hacker didn't do something embarrassing, but understand why he didn't.

Can you imagine how much trouble you’d be in? If you were not bothered about such things then it’d be a good laugh. I’d have been tempted to change the associated email and password and lock the f.cker out, but i bet Twitter would have put a stop to that quite quickly.

Get burner phone and SIM with modest amount of data, put face mask on, take train to next large city, put hoody up, take bus to the edge of town, walk into the woods and find a spot where there's still 4G coverage, fire up VPN, set location to Washington DC, fire up Twitter, log in as Trump. announce resignation, confess to pee tape and everything else, remove SIM card, drop phone in river, walk back to bus stop, drop SIM card in drain, get bus back to station, get on train back home, fire up regular phone, observe mayhem, try not to look too pleased with yourself.

A couple of buses with a walk down some residential streets in-between, and a reversible hoodie, probably. Buses have cctv.

Of course, masks are less suspicious now. And reversible for a color change.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:42 am

A couple of buses with a walk down some residential streets in-between, and a reversible hoodie, probably. Buses have cctv.

Of course, masks are less suspicious now. And reversible for a color change.

And helpful for not looking pleased with yourself.

Quinnipiac poll has Trump and Biden on 47 each in Texas
https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/releas ... aseID=3680

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:14 pm

Bit of an exaggeration there, EPD. I think the truth is probably somewhere between your "they're all the same" position and LW's jokey hagiography (which is what I was responding to).

But then yours seemed a bit of an over-reaction to people essentially sighing and reminiscing about the time when the US President could string two sentences together and seemed to want the best for people. (LW's wasn't a jokey hagiography, it was ironic criticism). Nonetheless, people should be able to contrast Obama to Trump with fondness, without some dreary arse leaping down their necks because Obama did some not good stuff. It's no different from all the tw.ts on the far left of labour.