Scrutable

lpm wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:03 pm

Stock market having another slumpy sort of day. Not major, nothing like the plunge in March. But Trump loves to boast to rednecks about how well their 401Ks are doing.

It's almost like abandoning consumers during a pandemic is bad for business.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:50 pm

malbui wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:35 pm

With a week to go I’m quite appallingly nervous about this. My big fear is that the polls are skewed because people don’t want to admit to planning to vote for Trump. Plus, of course, the systematic cheating by the GOP.

The previous shy Trump/missing Trump voter bias (which wasn't actually very big, people just forgot about correlations in the errors when rating Clinton's chances) has been accounted for this time in the polling. Unless there's reason to think it's got even higher, it should (he says) not be an issue, or as big an issue, this time.

Plus Trump voters don't actually seem that shy this time around...

headshot wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:07 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:50 pm

malbui wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:35 pm

With a week to go I’m quite appallingly nervous about this. My big fear is that the polls are skewed because people don’t want to admit to planning to vote for Trump. Plus, of course, the systematic cheating by the GOP.

The previous shy Trump/missing Trump voter bias (which wasn't actually very big, people just forgot about correlations in the errors when rating Clinton's chances) has been accounted for this time in the polling. Unless there's reason to think it's got even higher, it should (he says) not be an issue, or as big an issue, this time.

Plus Trump voters don't actually seem that shy this time around...

You have to remember that the visible participants in the culture war are only small fraction of the total population. Shy 2016 Trump voters were the Republican leaning Independents that don't like either party particularly, but vote for what they think gives a stable economy and stable social environment.

The pandemic has upended both of those.

malbui wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:35 pm

With a week to go I’m quite appallingly nervous about this. My big fear is that the polls are skewed because people don’t want to admit to planning to vote for Trump. Plus, of course, the systematic cheating by the GOP.

You and me both

NYTimes have updated their "If the Polls are as wrong as they were in..." table.



Biden wins with 335 EV if the polls are as wrong as in 2016.

By the way, looking at the Economist model, my vote would have twice the chance of affecting the outcome of this election if the entire world's population moved here and was eligible to vote than it does this year.

Who did you decide to vote for?

It's a tricky one this year. I keep wavering between the two.

On the one hand, Donald Trump is a liar and you can't believe a word he says, which isn't great in the President.

On the other hand, according to Donald Trump it's proved that Joe Biden is a corrupt politician who's been given millions by China and did deals with Ukraine and his son lost a laptop containing proof of all this corruption. This isn't great in a President either.

lpm wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:17 pm

Who did you decide to vote for?

It's a tricky one this year. I keep wavering between the two.

On the one hand, Donald Trump is a liar and you can't believe a word he says, which isn't great in the President.

On the other hand, according to Donald Trump it's proved that Joe Biden is a corrupt politician who's been given millions by China and did deals with Ukraine and his son lost a laptop containing proof of all this corruption. This isn't great in a President either.

In MA, it's tempting to write yourself in. But you definitely can't trust that guy.

The Supreme Court has refused to expedite the PA Republican Party request to relitigate the case they lost last week.

So Pennsylvania has 3 extra days to receive mail-in ballots. For now.

He is an absolute f.cking psychopath.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/27/politics ... index.html

Interesting to note that some good public polling for Biden has just come out in Georgia. He's visited there recently; recently enough that it isn't likely to be the visit that swung the polling as I think the survey period was pre-visit. It wasn't a long planned thing, either, suggesting that the Biden campaign 1) probably has good internal polling that gave them a heads up about Georgia being winnable before the public stuff, and 2) is listening to it and making campaign stop decisions accordingly.

On that note, Harris is going to Texas, including a trip to the border. There's a lot of generally democrat supporting Hispanic registered voters in South Texas that don't seem to be turning out as much as one could hope. If they can pick them up, it gives Biden Harris a real chance, and it creates a headache for the Republicans who can't afford to fight in as many states as the Democrats can.

Tucker Carlson in 'dog ate homework' shocker:

https://www.newsweek.com/tucker-carlson ... il-1543084

Wonderful!

Just imagine how badly Fox must have diseased your mind for you to believe a word of it. Year after year of madness poured into your brain and you end up believing anything a Fox journalist commentator entertainer says.

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:37 am

Wonderful!

Just imagine how badly Fox must have diseased your mind for you to believe a word of it. Year after year of madness poured into your brain and you end up believing anything a Fox journalist commentator entertainer says.

"got lost in the mail"

Would that be the US Mail system which they've tried their best to f.ck up in order to skew the election?

As well as being a lie, of course.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:20 am

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:37 am

Wonderful!

Just imagine how badly Fox must have diseased your mind for you to believe a word of it. Year after year of madness poured into your brain and you end up believing anything a Fox journalist commentator entertainer says.

"got lost in the mail"

Would that be the US Mail system which they've tried their best to f.ck up in order to skew the election?

As well as being a lie, of course.

Not the USPS, but a well known household name carrier that Tucker doesn’t name because then he could have his lying arse sued eight ways till Sunday for unknown reasons.

Are there any other carriers for emergency-total-proof-that-Biden-is-a-Chinese-asset documents apart from FedEx?

I mean, the US doesn't have f.cking Yodel, do they?

Imagine not taking a copy! Imagine these days that the only proof is on paper! It’s like a spy film from the 60’s when copying things wasn’t trivially easy and the main storage method wasn’t electronic to start with.

Grumble wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:34 am

Imagine not taking a copy! Imagine these days that the only proof is on paper! It’s like a spy film from the 60’s when copying things wasn’t trivially easy and the main storage method wasn’t electronic to start with.

Which is the era the majority of their viewers are most familiar.

TBF I recently came into possession of some disturbing photographs of Tucker Carlson, Eric Trump, an egg whisk and a confused armadillo and the same thing happened to me.

Thoughts and prayers to the family of the armadillo, Rest In Pieces.

Grumble wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:34 am

Imagine not taking a copy! Imagine these days that the only proof is on paper! It’s like a spy film from the 60’s when copying things wasn’t trivially easy and the main storage method wasn’t electronic to start with.

Na if this was a 60s spy movie our hero would have produced a small electronic camera from their pocket and dramatically taken some pictures of the documents, before revealing it also doubled up as some sort of futuristic communication device capable of sending telegrams great distances and probably has the popular arcade game “Snake” on it as well.

Of course such a “mobile” device remains firmly in the pages of “Astounding Stories” alongside home computing devices the smaller than a wardrobe and sneakers with lights in the heel.

Do I understand correctly that he says the documents were "real, authentic and damning" even though he's never seen them (nor a copy, due to tech not existing), and can't even tell us what they were?

Just because triple posting is cool.

I know we shouldn’t get too excited about minor movements within the noise but 538 model currently has Trump on a 7% chance to win by a “single state” i.e sub Texas’ 38 EC votes or the equivalent of PA or FA shifting from one column to the other “6-pointer style” with a smaller 4% cluster in the 90-110 EC vote range.

Talk about slender.

I've gotta say, I am looking forward to Trump's completely unhinged reactions to losing. On the night as it becomes increasingly undeniable, over the next few days as it slowly permeates his worm-ridden brain and the next weeks as he tries to formulate increasingly desperate genius plans to cling into power. There's no point trying to predict what'll happen, because it'll all be far, far weirder than any of us can imagine.

Given that there's already been one terrorist plot uncovered, I think we should also prepare ourselves for the likelihood violence from the brainwashed, probably a lot of it, in particular of the stochastic "lone wolf" variety. But I'm hoping it'll be minimal, and that we can still laugh at a Trump meltdown.

Little waster wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:17 pm

Just because triple posting is cool.

I know we shouldn’t get too excited about minor movements within the noise but 538 model currently has Trump on a 7% chance to win by a “single state” i.e sub Texas’ 38 EC votes or the equivalent of PA or FA shifting from one column to the other “6-pointer style” with a smaller 4% cluster in the 90-110 EC vote range.

Talk about slender.

In lol-tastic cherry-picking news, a poll of Texas has Biden up 9.

The other results from this pollster in other states are pretty much in line with averages, so wtf happened there?

Little waster wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:17 pm

I know we shouldn’t get too excited about minor movements within the noise but 538 model currently has Trump on a 7% chance to win by a “single state” i.e sub Texas’ 38 EC votes or the equivalent of PA or FA shifting from one column to the other “6-pointer style” with a smaller 4% cluster in the 90-110 EC vote range.

Talk about slender.

Not sure I understand what you mean?

Almost certainly Trump must win Pennsylvania AND Florida. He's trapped in a two state desperation rather than a single state.

(1) If Trump loses Florida, his only possible path is to win EVERY single other state he won in 2016 - he must win Michigan AND Wisconsin AND Pennsylvania AND Arizona AND North Carolina.

The only exception to this is if he manages to steal either Nevada or Minnesota (in which case he could afford to lose ONE other state except Pennsylvania).

(2) If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he must hold EITHER Wisconsin or Michigan or steal Minnesota. He must overcome the correlations so that he loses Pennsylvania yet wins similar states. And he must also win Florida.

(3) If Trump loses Florida AND Pennsylvania then he must capture Minnesota and ALSO capture either Nevada or New Hampshire, while holding on to everything else.

Realistically poor Trump faces a two state crisis - there's a narrow path through to his victory but it requires both Pennsylvania and Florida, and then hope Biden doesn't get enough of the other combinations to win anyway. The minute Trump loses Pennsylvania or Florida his chances drop to the trivial range. Lose them both and it's near zero.