US Election

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EACLucifer
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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:22 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:52 pm
Little waster wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:17 pm
Just because triple posting is cool.

I know we shouldn’t get too excited about minor movements within the noise but 538 model currently has Trump on a 7% chance to win by a “single state” i.e sub Texas’ 38 EC votes or the equivalent of PA or FA shifting from one column to the other “6-pointer style” with a smaller 4% cluster in the 90-110 EC vote range.

Talk about slender.
In lol-tastic cherry-picking news, a poll of Texas has Biden up 9.

The other results from this pollster in other states are pretty much in line with averages, so wtf happened there?
Nate Cohn was explaining recently it's really, really difficult to get an appropriately weighted sample of Hispanic voters in Texas, so it might be an off sample, or just a really weird outlier.

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Little waster
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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:28 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:58 pm
Little waster wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:17 pm
I know we shouldn’t get too excited about minor movements within the noise but 538 model currently has Trump on a 7% chance to win by a “single state” i.e sub Texas’ 38 EC votes or the equivalent of PA or FA shifting from one column to the other “6-pointer style” with a smaller 4% cluster in the 90-110 EC vote range.

Talk about slender.
Not sure I understand what you mean?

Almost certainly Trump must win Pennsylvania AND Florida. He's trapped in a two state desperation rather than a single state.

(1) If Trump loses Florida, his only possible path is to win EVERY single other state he won in 2016 - he must win Michigan AND Wisconsin AND Pennsylvania AND Arizona AND North Carolina.

The only exception to this is if he manages to steal either Nevada or Minnesota (in which case he could afford to lose ONE other state except Pennsylvania).

(2) If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he must hold EITHER Wisconsin or Michigan or steal Minnesota. He must overcome the correlations so that he loses Pennsylvania yet wins similar states. And he must also win Florida.

(3) If Trump loses Florida AND Pennsylvania then he must capture Minnesota and ALSO capture either Nevada or New Hampshire, while holding on to everything else.

Realistically poor Trump faces a two state crisis - there's a narrow path through to his victory but it requires both Pennsylvania and Florida, and then hope Biden doesn't get enough of the other combinations to win anyway. The minute Trump loses Pennsylvania or Florida his chances drop to the trivial range. Lose them both and it's near zero.
I think we are saying the same thing.

The model gives Trump has a small chance of victory by clinging to both FA and PA, the loss of either is curtains which we already knew but it’s nice to have the graphical version. It would be a win but an extremely narrow one won on a knife-edge. That represents his best chance.

There is an even more unlikely scenario where all the toss-ups go Trump’s way and he wins by an underwhelming margin. That’s his absolutely dream scenario and accumulatively are the equivalent of flipping 5 heads in a row.

Meanwhile Biden is looking at everything from Congress giving him the tie to landslides of various magnitude to a humiliating Trump with a 500+ EC vote wipeout. The wipeout is equivalently likely as Trump winning by a mere 108 EC votes.
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EACLucifer
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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:37 pm

Via Tom Bonier on Twitter

Elderly black voters have already passed total 2016 vote numbers in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Texas.

Asian voters have passed 2016 vote numbers in North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas.

That calculation was thirteen million votes ago, in terms of overall turnout, which now stands at nearly eighty million. Though it is unwise to rest any firm predictions on early voting other than that this is likely to be a high turnout election, it is worth remembering that unexpectedly high black turnout was key in 2012.

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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:07 pm

Here's the various charts of Iowa Covid cases. It's New York Times but I don't think these coronavirus pages are paywalled if you don't have a subscription.

I picked Iowa because it's fairly representive of the Covid disaster and it's a 50/50 state with an interesting Senate race.

How the f.ck anyone can vote Trump with this going on is beyond me.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

Iowa has a population of 3 million, so multiply up by 20x to get UK equivalents. 1,783 cases per day translates to 35,000 cases in UK terms. Obviously Iowa has no shutdowns to deal with this - it's got a Republican governor.
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Re: US Election

Post by Vertigowooyay » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:54 am

Quick Tucker Carlson update: UPS found the package!

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.inde ... html%3famp

I look forward to hearing the... wait. What’s that? Really?...

Tucker won’t be airing any of it because it’s time to leave Hunter Biden alone.

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/stat ... 71872?s=21

I’m sure none of this is because of the report being so bogus that Fox News could get sued into oblivion.

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/h ... e-n1245387
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TimW
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Re: US Election

Post by TimW » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:10 am

I won't be watching any of that, so can anyone tell me who's getting sacked for posting the stuff in the first place?

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:44 am

The large and important Harris County in Texas is passed 2016 turnout levels, as are a number of other counties in Texas, a few outside Texas in swing states, and the entire state of Hawaii. Aside from Hawaii, the counties in question are all urban or suburban, and many of them have seen population growth as well as high early enthusiasm. They are also areas which either have a record of supporting Democrats, or are some of the areas that poll as swinging most heavily towards the Democrats.

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Re: US Election

Post by headshot » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:59 am

TimW wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:10 am
I won't be watching any of that, so can anyone tell me who's getting sacked for posting the stuff in the first place?
Watch it. It's honestly hilarious. Like some sort of performance art.

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Little waster
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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:07 pm

headshot wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:59 am
TimW wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:10 am
I won't be watching any of that, so can anyone tell me who's getting sacked for posting the stuff in the first place?
Watch it. It's honestly hilarious. Like some sort of performance art.
Look we all know Tucker has his demons, we thought he had them under control but clearly he hasn't, and while the depraved things he does to armadillos with egg-whisks is deeply disgusting and bizarre, it isn't particularly relevant to the broader topic of when exactly he stopped beating his wife.

As such I will no longer be constantly going on about that disgraced pervert's Priodontic activities and certainly will not be providing any proof to support these obviously fictional smears, can we just all accept that you should probably thoroughly wash any kitchen utensil Tucker Carlson provides you with and hope he soon gets the help he clearly desperately needs to stop doing it and to continue to stop beating his wife.

Thoughts and prayers.
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lpm
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:21 pm

Weather forecast for Tuesday.

Pretty great.

A warm sunny day across Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania.

Maybe a bit of wintery weather up in Maine.

Dry in Florida.

ETA: in fact, amazingly warm and dry across the entire country, except perhaps that New England corner. Will be a pleasure to queue for 18 hours to get the chance to cast a ballot that won't be counted.
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Little waster
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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:35 pm

In a surprising shock twist Brett Kavanaugh proves himself unsuitable for a Supreme Court position.

In a year of shock twists I don't believe anyone could have seen that coming.

In other news, researchers have made contact with a hitherto uncontacted Amazonian tribe in the depths of the jungle.

Speaking through an interpreter, the No'Shii*Cherlook tribe's holy man first words were "That Brett Kavanaugh's a bit of a c.nt isn't he?".
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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:16 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:21 pm
Weather forecast for Tuesday.

Pretty great.

A warm sunny day across Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania.

Maybe a bit of wintery weather up in Maine.

Dry in Florida.

ETA: in fact, amazingly warm and dry across the entire country, except perhaps that New England corner. Will be a pleasure to queue for 18 hours to get the chance to cast a ballot that won't be counted.
The viral weather in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska and to a lesser extent Ohio, is looking pretty bad though.

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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:26 pm

I hadn't realised this was a contest between two teetotallers.

Though four years ago I revised my opinion that teetotallers are safer when it comes to nukes.
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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:37 pm

Is Biden the first presidential candidate to be married to a doctor [in her case, of education, graduated 2007]?
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:47 pm

Both Clintons have a Juris Doctor degree from Yale, and Michelle Obama and Elizabeth Dole got them from Harvard, though apparently that degree doesn't let holders use the term "doctor".
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:18 pm

Texas turnout is now already higher than 2016. Which is interesting.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/liv ... 5c2d376282
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:22 pm

Texas total turnout now above 2016 levels with some early voting and election day still to come.

There's a lesson here; if one wants to suppress the vote, quietly do stuff that comes as a horrible surprise when people can't vote. Don't loudly declare one's intention to do so but still leave a relatively safe and easy option for voting in the hands of county administrations that rightly oppose one's vote-suppressing intentions.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:33 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:26 pm
I hadn't realised this was a contest between two teetotallers.

Though four years ago I revised my opinion that teetotallers are safer when it comes to nukes.
Teetotal for alcohol, anyway.

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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:06 pm

dyqik wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:33 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:26 pm
I hadn't realised this was a contest between two teetotallers.

Though four years ago I revised my opinion that teetotallers are safer when it comes to nukes.
Teetotal for alcohol, anyway.
I was going to say, I think teetotal means specifically abstinence from alcohol, but that's not necessarily much help if you're always getting off your tits on stimulants.
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lpm
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:07 pm

I've been avoiding early vote stats because I thought it was impossible to determine the degree of election-day cannibalisation.

But Texas going >100% 2016 must reveal something. (Population growth since 2016 has been about 5%, so really should wait for early turnout to hit 105% of total 2016.)

It's a low turnout state, historically. Low turnout of the young, as always, plus low for Hispanic voters - but Hispanic voters in Texas are more Republican than you might think. Turnout was only 59% of Registered Voters in 2016 (compares to 74% in Florida, for example).

Is it a question of looking at available pools? There's a fixed pool of Trumpists guaranteed to vote, but a wider pool of general Republicans who may or may not vote. In 2020 we will be getting a surge of typically unreliable Trumpists. On the other side, there's the available pool of unreliable voters who lean Democrat. That must be a larger pool, surely?

Ultimately a 100% turnout, every single voter showing up scenario would favour Democrats strongly, for the usual youth/poor/minority reasons. Same must be true of 90%, 80%... There must be a point where turnout rises about a threshold that exhausts Trump's available pool, leaving a pool of generally Democrat leaning voters?

But if it's just a modest increase in turnout, it could easily be news of a close race drawing out unreliable voters on both sides?
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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:08 pm

So Trump is down to 10% on 538's election forecast. There's a tie hinted at there, which means Biden is still on 89%. Once Biden gets to 90%, though, I think he moves to "Clearly favored" [sic] to win the election. Bold times indeed.
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:09 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:07 pm
I've been avoiding early vote stats because I thought it was impossible to determine the degree of election-day cannibalisation.

But Texas going >100% 2016 must reveal something. (Population growth since 2016 has been about 5%, so really should wait for early turnout to hit 105% of total 2016.)

It's a low turnout state, historically. Low turnout of the young, as always, plus low for Hispanic voters - but Hispanic voters in Texas are more Republican than you might think. Turnout was only 59% of Registered Voters in 2016 (compares to 74% in Florida, for example).

Is it a question of looking at available pools? There's a fixed pool of Trumpists guaranteed to vote, but a wider pool of general Republicans who may or may not vote. In 2020 we will be getting a surge of typically unreliable Trumpists. On the other side, there's the available pool of unreliable voters who lean Democrat. That must be a larger pool, surely?

Ultimately a 100% turnout, every single voter showing up scenario would favour Democrats strongly, for the usual youth/poor/minority reasons. Same must be true of 90%, 80%... There must be a point where turnout rises about a threshold that exhausts Trump's available pool, leaving a pool of generally Democrat leaning voters?

But if it's just a modest increase in turnout, it could easily be news of a close race drawing out unreliable voters on both sides?
The analytical possibilities are endless, even after the election. I'm sure we'll all be getting high off it.
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:16 pm

Texas stats 2016:

Registered Voters 15,101,087
Trump 4,685,047 (52.23%)
Clinton 3,877,868 (43.24%)
Other 406,311
Turnout percentage 59.39%
Turnout 8,969,226

If turnout increases to around 75%, Florida levels, that would be about 12,000,000 votes out of about 16,000,000 registered voters.

(Is there anywhere that shows how many registered voters there are in 2020? I couldn't find anything so I'm just taking it up by about 5%)

The internet keeps going on about early voting in Harris County (a nice Democrat stronghold) and the young voters - but never puts it into context and I keep suspecting cherry-picking: I bet there's some Republican stronghold county with high early votes.

I think I'll get excited when turnout gets to 12,000,000, rather than these local snippets of information.
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:25 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:16 pm
(Is there anywhere that shows how many registered voters there are in 2020? I couldn't find anything so I'm just taking it up by about 5%)
This may do it?
https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/h ... 2020.shtml

ETA: Also, this site might be useful for doing lots of stats digging: https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/ ... EVDates.do
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