Scrutable

Biden +13 in Florida?

dyqik wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:09 pm

Biden +13 in Florida?

Sounds reasonable. There are many older people in Florida and those with alert minds will demand some competence in the handling of this wave of infections and death. They will not expect anything like competence from Trump. They will expect or at least hope with reason for this from Biden's team.

Trump doesn't even have a team, just a kind of gang messing about.

Bet they'll still f.cking turn for trump though, the sinky w.nkers

To FL we can add:
PA - Biden +11
MN - Biden +13
MI - Biden +9

National - Biden +11, +11 and +8


Trump has also been forced to bend to reality, and cancel his nomination acceptance speech in Florida.

Is there perhaps some cherrypicking confirmation bias going on here? According to the 538 poll average, Biden's lead is actually down a bit over the past few days. A small enough amount that it's likely just noise, but let's not get overconfident.

bolo wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:02 pm

Is there perhaps some cherrypicking confirmation bias going on here? According to the 538 poll average, Biden's lead is actually down a bit over the past few days. A small enough amount that it's likely just noise, but let's not get overconfident.

There's a big disparity appearing between live interview and online polls. Plenty of discussion about this around, but it's probably not a shy Trumper effect, and more to do with seniors responding to phone calls but not online.

But the 538 tracker average (it doesn't do any weighting but pollster quality) is down because of a single poll by Rasmussen. Which also found Trump's approval/disapproval to be 49/50 rather than the average of 40/55

dyqik wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:22 pm

bolo wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:02 pm

Is there perhaps some cherrypicking confirmation bias going on here? According to the 538 poll average, Biden's lead is actually down a bit over the past few days. A small enough amount that it's likely just noise, but let's not get overconfident.

There's a big disparity appearing between live interview and online polls. Plenty of discussion about this around, but it's probably not a shy Trumper effect, and more to do with seniors responding to phone calls but not online.

But the 538 tracker average (it doesn't do any weighting but pollster quality) is down because of a single poll by Rasmussen. Which also found Trump's approval/disapproval to be 49/50 rather than the average of 40/55

That should say that the 538 tracker isn't doing any weighting right now, or correction for house effects.

bolo wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:02 pm

Is there perhaps some cherrypicking confirmation bias going on here? According to the 538 poll average, Biden's lead is actually down a bit over the past few days. A small enough amount that it's likely just noise, but let's not get overconfident.

Trump has started to soften his stance on masks in the past few days, too. I do wonder if he softens his stance on other areas, too, a number of moderate Republican-leaning voters might transfer back to him. Although he has to be careful not to soften his stance too much, as much of his 'base' (weird, wacko, ultra-Nationalistic, Tea Party, etc) likes his current stance.

Does anyone know whether Trump's religious base has stayed behind him with the Covid response and protests, or has that been split?

dyqik wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:50 pm

That should say that the 538 tracker isn't doing any weighting right now, or correction for house effects.

No correction for house effects? You surprise me.

Rasmussen are the pollster that Trump deliberately picks up because they give him better numbers in general. In the last few days they've shown a sharp trend towards evens in the national presidential approval polls, whilst the other pollsters don't show that trend. It's hard right now to believe that Rasmussen's results are reflecting reality. Obviously, they could be, and everyone else could be wrong, but something is amiss.

Gosh, it’s as if Donny is out of touch with reality.

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/sta ... 62438?s=21

bolo wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:06 am

dyqik wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:50 pm

That should say that the 538 tracker isn't doing any weighting right now, or correction for house effects.

No correction for house effects? You surprise me.

Yeah, it's clear if you look at the polling average pages for Trump's approval/disapproval or Generic Ballot vs the GE averaging page. The former two have weights and corrected results shown, while the GE page doesn't have either.

Not sure if the right thread, but closest I could find.

Democrat representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was called a "f**king b*tch" on the steps of the Capitol building by Republican representative Ted Yoho. He then made a non-apology, using his wife and daughters as cover.

This was AOC's reponse in the House of Representatives yesterday: https://www.facebook.com/NowThisPolitic ... 8627557757

I'll be honest. I came damn close to giving her a standing ovation in front of my laptop.

CF

Cardinal Fang wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:40 pm

Not sure if the right thread, but closest I could find.

Democrat representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was called a "f**king b*tch" on the steps of the Capitol building by Republican representative Ted Yoho. He then made a non-apology, using his wife and daughters as cover.

This was AOC's reponse in the House of Representatives yesterday: https://www.facebook.com/NowThisPolitic ... 8627557757

I'll be honest. I came damn close to giving her a standing ovation in front of my laptop.

CF

That's a response!
Thanks - I wouldn't have seen it otherwise.

The White House appears to be getting it's information from any random bit of the internet now.

Facts First: While both 'Cops' and 'Live PD' were actually canceled, PAW Patrol was not. Lego has also not stopped selling its police toy sets, though they temporarily stopped marketing them. And although the President has recently railed against "cancel culture," he himself has explicitly advocated for cancellations or boycotts on numerous occasions.
"Cancel culture" and "cancellation" are vague terms used in different ways by different people, but McEnany listed PAW Patrol along with things that were literally canceled, making it sound like it was literally canceled too.

It's also the sentence that's in bold that bugs me the most.

Trump: hypocritical and poorly informed. Whatever next.

Gfamily wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:45 pm

Cardinal Fang wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:40 pm

Not sure if the right thread, but closest I could find.

Democrat representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was called a "f**king b*tch" on the steps of the Capitol building by Republican representative Ted Yoho. He then made a non-apology, using his wife and daughters as cover.

This was AOC's reponse in the House of Representatives yesterday: https://www.facebook.com/NowThisPolitic ... 8627557757

I'll be honest. I came damn close to giving her a standing ovation in front of my laptop.

CF

That's a response!
Thanks - I wouldn't have seen it otherwise.

Utterly stunning.
Thanks fmt

Her speech is fantastic.

FlammableFlower wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:43 pm

Her speech is fantastic.

Indeed, and Yonho denied that at first

In a brief but heated exchange, which was overheard by a reporter, Yoho told Ocasio-Cortez she was "disgusting" for recently suggesting that poverty and unemployment are driving a spike in crime in New York City during the coronavirus pandemic.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5082 ... at-kind-of

Coward as well as everything else.

As an aside, there seem to be a lot of Republican supporters who think it's a good call to mock AOC's intellect, which itself is misogynistic, as well as obviously wrong, let alone when those same people support Trump.

jimbob wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 25, 2020 4:16 pm

As an aside, there seem to be a lot of Republican supporters who think it's a good call to mock AOC's intellect, which itself is misogynistic, as well as obviously wrong, let alone when those same people support Trump.

Yeah, but when was the last time that you heard AOC boasting about her IQ? QED innit.

Cardinal Fang wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:40 pm

Not sure if the right thread, but closest I could find.

Democrat representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was called a "f**king b*tch" on the steps of the Capitol building by Republican representative Ted Yoho. He then made a non-apology, using his wife and daughters as cover.

This was AOC's reponse in the House of Representatives yesterday: https://www.facebook.com/NowThisPolitic ... 8627557757

I'll be honest. I came damn close to giving her a standing ovation in front of my laptop.

CF

This is a very good article about how her response is cast as 'disruptive'.

https://www.thecut.com/2020/07/aoc-spee ... times.html

Gfamily wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:30 am

Cardinal Fang wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:40 pm

Not sure if the right thread, but closest I could find.

Democrat representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was called a "f**king b*tch" on the steps of the Capitol building by Republican representative Ted Yoho. He then made a non-apology, using his wife and daughters as cover.

This was AOC's reponse in the House of Representatives yesterday: https://www.facebook.com/NowThisPolitic ... 8627557757

I'll be honest. I came damn close to giving her a standing ovation in front of my laptop.

CF

This is a very good article about how her response is cast as 'disruptive'.

https://www.thecut.com/2020/07/aoc-spee ... times.html

Yup, that crystallises quite a lot that I'd felt sbout the coverage, thanks

Gfamily wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:30 am

Cardinal Fang wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:40 pm

Not sure if the right thread, but closest I could find.

Democrat representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was called a "f**king b*tch" on the steps of the Capitol building by Republican representative Ted Yoho. He then made a non-apology, using his wife and daughters as cover.

This was AOC's reponse in the House of Representatives yesterday: https://www.facebook.com/NowThisPolitic ... 8627557757

I'll be honest. I came damn close to giving her a standing ovation in front of my laptop.

CF

This is a very good article about how her response is cast as 'disruptive'.

https://www.thecut.com/2020/07/aoc-spee ... times.html

Yeah that's a really good, insightful article. (Although I don't know if we would want to depict a conscious decision to respond in the way AOC did as an inevitable consequence of Yoho's bad behaviour; some people are proud to be disruptive...I've not read the NYT article though to be fair).

I think it's a good reminder to us all to be vigilant about subtext in media coverage, particularly in how it can impact our perceptions of people over longer periods of time. Negative media coverage of a person/politician who is non-white and/or non-male can often be partly rooted in racism and/or misogyny - e.g. depicting people as 'disruptive' or news stories consistently being excessively, aggressively critical towards bad (or even just different) opinions or errors in comparison to storied about their white male counterparts. So this builds up a public image of a person that we end up absorbing, and even if we aren't aware of it we have potentially been influenced by the racism and misogyny that underlies that image. It doesn't mean we ourselves are necessarily racist or misogynistic (although it doesn't mean we're not either), but we've been influenced by the deliberate biases that have created that particular public perception of the person and our views are shaped accordingly.

Gfamily wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:30 am

Cardinal Fang wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:40 pm

Not sure if the right thread, but closest I could find.

Democrat representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was called a "f**king b*tch" on the steps of the Capitol building by Republican representative Ted Yoho. He then made a non-apology, using his wife and daughters as cover.

This was AOC's reponse in the House of Representatives yesterday: https://www.facebook.com/NowThisPolitic ... 8627557757

I'll be honest. I came damn close to giving her a standing ovation in front of my laptop.

CF

This is a very good article about how her response is cast as 'disruptive'.

https://www.thecut.com/2020/07/aoc-spee ... times.html

Though there's this:

former DNC head Howard Dean tweeted, “I am now convinced that AOC has what it takes to run for president and to be President.”

I really hope I live long enough to see this happen.

JQH wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:27 pm

Gfamily wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:30 am

Cardinal Fang wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:40 pm

Not sure if the right thread, but closest I could find.

Democrat representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was called a "f**king b*tch" on the steps of the Capitol building by Republican representative Ted Yoho. He then made a non-apology, using his wife and daughters as cover.

This was AOC's reponse in the House of Representatives yesterday: https://www.facebook.com/NowThisPolitic ... 8627557757

I'll be honest. I came damn close to giving her a standing ovation in front of my laptop.

CF

This is a very good article about how her response is cast as 'disruptive'.

https://www.thecut.com/2020/07/aoc-spee ... times.html

Though there's this:

former DNC head Howard Dean tweeted, “I am now convinced that AOC has what it takes to run for president and to be President.”

I really hope I live long enough to see this happen.

You don't want someone too young to be President. There could be all sorts of problems with their lack of experience and wisdom. You need... experience, and gravitas...

There do seem to be a lot of very impressive youngish women politicians at the moment.