US Election

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lpm
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:52 am

The micro states aren't actually that much of a problem, as they (currently) even out. Per 2016:

Democrats:

3 Maine (split districts)
3 Vermont
3 Hawaii
3 DC
3 Delaware
4 Rhode Is
4 New Hamp
5 New Mex

Total 28

Republicans

1 Maine (split districts)
3 Wyoming
3 South Dak
3 North Dak
3 Montana
3 Alaska
4 Idaho
5 West Virg
5 Nebraska (split districts)

Total 30

In 2020 the Nebraska NE-2 district could easily switch to Democrats, to make it 29 vs 29.

The EC problem appears to arise in the next tier, the 6 to 8 EC range:

Democrats

6 Nevada
7 Oregon
7 Connecticut
8 Washington

Total 28

Republicans

6 Utah
6 Mississippi
6 Kansas
6 Iowa
6 Arkansas
7 Oklahoma
8 Louisiana
8 Kentucky

Total 53

Then the difference builds even more in the 9 to 11 range:

Democrats

9 Colorado
10 Minnesota
10 Maryland
11 Massachusetts

Total 40

Republicans

9 South Carolina
9 Alabama
10 Wisconsin
10 Missouri
11 Tennessee
11 Indiana
11 Arizona

Total 71

So that builds to a 2016 lead of 154 Republicans vs 96 Democrats, and basically gives the structural EC advantage and handed Trump the win.

Of course, Biden should level the score in 2020 - if he wins Wisconsin, Iowa, NE-2 and Arizona then these small and medium states will be a basic tie (126 Trump vs 124 Biden). Yet this tie in the small/mediums will actually be against the backdrop of a very solid Biden win - assuming Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida etc also go to Biden then we would be in the region of a 340-198 victory.
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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:59 pm

Part of the reason the EC contributes to such disproportionate results is the FPTP method of awarding the votes - it seems normal that if a candidate gets 51% of people's votes in a given states they'll get 100% of the EC votes, rather than being awarded proportionately.
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Re: US Election

Post by Vertigowooyay » Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:04 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:21 am
Trump encourages supports to vote twice - that couldn't possibly go wrong...
Washington Post wrote:President Trump, on Wednesday during a trip in battleground North Carolina, urged voters to vote twice, once by mail and once in person, to test the protections intended to guard against double voting.

Trump, who has claimed the 2020 election will be rife with fraud and rigged against him, was asked by a local television reporter whether he had confidence in the vote-by-mail system.

“Let them send it in and let them go vote, and if their system’s as good as they say it is, then obviously they won’t be able to vote. If it isn’t tabulated, they’ll be able to vote,” Trump said.

Intentionally voting twice is illegal, and in many states, including North Carolina, it is a felony.

The president also greeted supporters on the tarmac upon landing in Wilmington, N.C., and made nearly identical comments, encouraging them to send in their ballot “and then go in and vote.”
"Folks, voter fraud is real and to prove it I want all of you to commit voter fraud."
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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:13 pm

It's just bonkers.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:31 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:59 pm
Part of the reason the EC contributes to such disproportionate results is the FPTP method of awarding the votes - it seems normal that if a candidate gets 51% of people's votes in a given states they'll get 100% of the EC votes, rather than being awarded proportionately.
We're roughly two states away from there being a binding compact to automatically award 100% of EC votes to the winner of the national popular vote. This kicks in only when the total EC votes of states signed up is 270 or more. The compact is a matter of law in the signed up states, so not easy to renege on between the election and the EC vote.

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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:07 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:31 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:59 pm
Part of the reason the EC contributes to such disproportionate results is the FPTP method of awarding the votes - it seems normal that if a candidate gets 51% of people's votes in a given states they'll get 100% of the EC votes, rather than being awarded proportionately.
We're roughly two states away from there being a binding compact to automatically award 100% of EC votes to the winner of the national popular vote. This kicks in only when the total EC votes of states signed up is 270 or more. The compact is a matter of law in the signed up states, so not easy to renege on between the election and the EC vote.
That sounds good in a way, though it does undermine the idea of the EC as a mechanism to prevent smaller, more rural states being 'bullied' by big population centres. It's a principle I'm in two minds about, even though I know that the current reality is largely progress being hindered by backwards-ass Republican country-c.nts.

As a complete guess - is it mostly blue states/administrations signing up?
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Re: US Election

Post by Martin_B » Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:34 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:07 pm
dyqik wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:31 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:59 pm
Part of the reason the EC contributes to such disproportionate results is the FPTP method of awarding the votes - it seems normal that if a candidate gets 51% of people's votes in a given states they'll get 100% of the EC votes, rather than being awarded proportionately.
We're roughly two states away from there being a binding compact to automatically award 100% of EC votes to the winner of the national popular vote. This kicks in only when the total EC votes of states signed up is 270 or more. The compact is a matter of law in the signed up states, so not easy to renege on between the election and the EC vote.
That sounds good in a way, though it does undermine the idea of the EC as a mechanism to prevent smaller, more rural states being 'bullied' by big population centres. It's a principle I'm in two minds about, even though I know that the current reality is largely progress being hindered by backwards-ass Republican country-c.nts.

As a complete guess - is it mostly blue states/administrations signing up?
The four occasions* where the national popular vote and electoral college vote disagreed have all resulted in Republicans beating Democrats, so I guess the red side of American politics isn't going to be happy about any change to the electoral college system!

[* Ignoring the 1824 election which wasn't on party lines.]
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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:36 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:07 pm
dyqik wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:31 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:59 pm
Part of the reason the EC contributes to such disproportionate results is the FPTP method of awarding the votes - it seems normal that if a candidate gets 51% of people's votes in a given states they'll get 100% of the EC votes, rather than being awarded proportionately.
We're roughly two states away from there being a binding compact to automatically award 100% of EC votes to the winner of the national popular vote. This kicks in only when the total EC votes of states signed up is 270 or more. The compact is a matter of law in the signed up states, so not easy to renege on between the election and the EC vote.
That sounds good in a way, though it does undermine the idea of the EC as a mechanism to prevent smaller, more rural states being 'bullied' by big population centres. It's a principle I'm in two minds about, even though I know that the current reality is largely progress being hindered by backwards-ass Republican country-c.nts.

As a complete guess - is it mostly blue states/administrations signing up?
Mostly, but that includes several "red" states, I think.

Even Kansas has a Democrat governor.

Anyway, the small states still get two Senators each, same as California.

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Re: US Election

Post by Squeak » Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:25 am

lpm wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:52 am
{useful states on state-size vs partisan lean}
My understanding is that small to moderate sized states used to be fairly evenly split between the two parties but as the urban-rural divide has grown, those smallish states have entrenched a Republican advantage in the EC and senate. At least until Texas gets to 55% democratic voters, thus throwing all their EC votes and senators to the other party.

I think the real problem that's been revealed by the current alignment of rural/urban voters with particular parties is the degree to which rural voters have had disproportionate impact on the policy positions of both parties for many decades. If either party wanted to get a policy through congress, they had to find ways to keep numerically small but politically powerful rural voters on side.

I think the US would be a very different country if political success matched policy outcomes that are popular with the voting public.

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Re: US Election

Post by Martin_B » Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:54 am

Squeak wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:25 am
lpm wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:52 am
{useful states on state-size vs partisan lean}
My understanding is that small to moderate sized states used to be fairly evenly split between the two parties but as the urban-rural divide has grown, those smallish states have entrenched a Republican advantage in the EC and senate. At least until Texas gets to 55% democratic voters, thus throwing all their EC votes and senators to the other party.

I think the real problem that's been revealed by the current alignment of rural/urban voters with particular parties is the degree to which rural voters have had disproportionate impact on the policy positions of both parties for many decades. If either party wanted to get a policy through congress, they had to find ways to keep numerically small but politically powerful rural voters on side.

I think the US would be a very different country if political success matched policy outcomes that are popular with the voting public.
I mentioned, back in January a book by Tim Moore who drove across America in a Model T. As much of the trip was across rural America he got to see the differences between rural and urban American voters and why middle America and the fly-over states voted so overwhelmingly for Trump and Republicans in general. Worth a read.
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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:57 am

Interesting that the Republican defence of Trump allegedly curling out a steaming log onto the graves of the US war-dead is:-

"Does that sound the sort of thing Trump would do?"

The answer to which will split exactly along party lines.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:03 am

I'm not sure what surprises me less about the current revelations re: Trump and war dead and war wounded, the ableism of his treatment of war wounded - wanting amputees hidden from sight - or the way he is just completely incapable of comprehending things that make sense to ordinary humans, like why dogs are good, or in this case, the concept of self-sacrifice.

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Re: US Election

Post by Millennie Al » Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:40 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:07 pm
... though it does undermine the idea of the EC as a mechanism to prevent smaller, more rural states being 'bullied' by big population centres. It's a principle I'm in two minds about,...
The huge disadvantage of democracy is that it allows a majority to bully a minority. Unfortunately, the alternative is to allow a minority to bully a majority, which is why we can't do better than democracy.
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Re: US Election

Post by bjn » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:05 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:03 am
I'm not sure what surprises me less about the current revelations re: Trump and war dead and war wounded, the ableism of his treatment of war wounded - wanting amputees hidden from sight - or the way he is just completely incapable of comprehending things that make sense to ordinary humans, like why dogs are good, or in this case, the concept of self-sacrifice.
First off, I’m almost certainly Aspergers and I have family that are diagnosed ASD, so I’m not saying ASD peeps are c.nts by nature. Idle speculation, could it be a compounding of him being undiagnosed ASD and being brought up in a horrendous family environment? Some of the behaviours fit, eg: only talking about himself, not shutting up, not being able to read other people, weird obsessions, etc... All that on top of being the massive tw.t that his father taught him to be would hinder his ability to understand other people. I also have from a first hand report that his is actually quite stupid, (a friend did business with him in NYC).

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Re: US Election

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:21 am

bjn wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:05 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:03 am
I'm not sure what surprises me less about the current revelations re: Trump and war dead and war wounded, the ableism of his treatment of war wounded - wanting amputees hidden from sight - or the way he is just completely incapable of comprehending things that make sense to ordinary humans, like why dogs are good, or in this case, the concept of self-sacrifice.
First off, I’m almost certainly Aspergers and I have family that are diagnosed ASD, so I’m not saying ASD peeps are c.nts by nature. Idle speculation, could it be a compounding of him being undiagnosed ASD and being brought up in a horrendous family environment? Some of the behaviours fit, eg: only talking about himself, not shutting up, not being able to read other people, weird obsessions, etc... All that on top of being the massive tw.t that his father taught him to be would hinder his ability to understand other people. I also have from a first hand report that his is actually quite stupid, (a friend did business with him in NYC).
If we’re into amateur diagnosis then I think that Narcissistic Personality Disorder is more likely.

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Re: US Election

Post by Vertigowooyay » Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:32 pm

What could possibly go wrong?
3D1D541E-CFBC-4890-B6D1-46C9E8C17D86.jpeg
3D1D541E-CFBC-4890-B6D1-46C9E8C17D86.jpeg (124.32 KiB) Viewed 224 times
7153F30E-F4E9-40E8-8726-90C970E09AE3.jpeg
7153F30E-F4E9-40E8-8726-90C970E09AE3.jpeg (108.05 KiB) Viewed 224 times
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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:56 pm

Strong contender for a Darwin* Award there.

*sorry I meant Divine Design According to the Ineffable Plan Award.
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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:22 pm

Vertigowooyay wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:32 pm
What could possibly go wrong?

3D1D541E-CFBC-4890-B6D1-46C9E8C17D86.jpeg7153F30E-F4E9-40E8-8726-90C970E09AE3.jpeg
Aside from the obvious safety risks, what an utterly useless holster that is, it must take forever to draw the pistol compared to a conventional holster, and it makes it obvious to any ne'er-do-well who to shoot first if things do kick off.

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Re: US Election

Post by jimbob » Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:26 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:22 pm
Vertigowooyay wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:32 pm
What could possibly go wrong?

3D1D541E-CFBC-4890-B6D1-46C9E8C17D86.jpeg7153F30E-F4E9-40E8-8726-90C970E09AE3.jpeg
Aside from the obvious safety risks, what an utterly useless holster that is, it must take forever to draw the pistol compared to a conventional holster, and it makes it obvious to any ne'er-do-well who to shoot first if things do kick off.
Yes, fumbling that could be interesting. Don't many handguns now come without safety catches?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:37 pm

Trump's response to the Navalny's poisoning: we're investigating, but rather than looking at if Russia is behind it, people should be investigating whether it might be China...

Just wow.

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Re: US Election

Post by discovolante » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:51 pm

Vertigowooyay wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:32 pm
What could possibly go wrong?

3D1D541E-CFBC-4890-B6D1-46C9E8C17D86.jpeg7153F30E-F4E9-40E8-8726-90C970E09AE3.jpeg
That immediately reminded me of women talking on mobile phones pushed between the side of their face and their hijab.

(ETA just in case, not because I associate hijabs with violence (I don't), it was just a mildly amusing juxtaposition)
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Re: US Election

Post by jimbob » Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:32 pm

I hope the news story about the Trump boat rally boats being in distress is a metaphor for the campaign
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:41 pm

I often quite enjoy John Oliver's Last Week Tonight main story segments (especially when the title sounds extremely boring, and he trots out 20 minutes of quality journalism on a neglected topic).

The latest one is covering RNC 2020 and Kenosha. I don't know if it's good yet because I've only just started watching, but I've just seen my first clip of the scary shouty cocaine lady and hooooooly sh.t lpm wasn't exaggerating.
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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Sep 05, 2020 11:11 pm

yeah, that was a good one. I didn't really laugh much, but I agreed the f.ck out of it
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Sun Sep 06, 2020 3:45 am

Haven't seen anyone mention this yet.
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