US Election

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Little waster
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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:02 pm

bolo wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:22 pm
Unless I missed something, the allegations are that this happened with employees at the private company where he worked before becoming postmaster general, not with post office employees. So not made up with public funds, although still illegal.
Ah right, the various degrees of cuntishness are hard to distinguish.
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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:25 pm

Little waster wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:02 pm
bolo wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:22 pm
Unless I missed something, the allegations are that this happened with employees at the private company where he worked before becoming postmaster general, not with post office employees. So not made up with public funds, although still illegal.
Ah right, the various degrees of cuntishness are hard to distinguish.
Although that's just the allegations that have come to light thus far.

Always an important disclaimer for this administration.

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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:36 am

Roger Stone weighs in again - have to see whether or not it'd been a better idea for Trump leaving him in jail...

Millennie Al
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Re: US Election

Post by Millennie Al » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:57 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:24 pm
55% of Trump's money is from small contributions (<$200), compared with only 43% of Biden's.
How many people who complain that American politics is dominated by big business donations will take that into consideration?
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Woodchopper
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Re: US Election

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:48 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:57 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:24 pm
55% of Trump's money is from small contributions (<$200), compared with only 43% of Biden's.
How many people who complain that American politics is dominated by big business donations will take that into consideration?
Those numbers aren't very relevant to that debate. Campaign finance laws mean that big business or billionaires don't donate large sums to the individual Trump or Biden campaigns. The big money is going to Political Action Committees which then spend it on ads etc.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:04 am

Also, a single big donor who gave, say 1% of a candidate's money, will obviously have more access and influence than a single small donor who gave 0.0001% of it.

To have the same influence, you could group together 10,000 small donors who collectively donated 1%, but that's starting to sound a bit more like democracy anyway. For instance, a nursing union formed the only PAC that donated to the Sanders campaign.
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Aitch
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Re: US Election

Post by Aitch » Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:09 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:48 am
Millennie Al wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:57 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:24 pm
55% of Trump's money is from small contributions (<$200), compared with only 43% of Biden's.
How many people who complain that American politics is dominated by big business donations will take that into consideration?
Those numbers aren't very relevant to that debate. Campaign finance laws mean that big business or billionaires don't donate large sums to the individual Trump or Biden campaigns. The big money is going to Political Action Committees which then spend it on ads etc.
Isn't there also a scam whereby a big company can donate a large amount without it being marked down to them by claiming it's donated by all their employees.

Not sure exactly how it works. Or they get away with it...
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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:19 pm

Ten point lead for Biden in Arizona, according to one poll today.
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:09 pm

The Arizona Senate lead might be even bigger - Fox gave +17 for Kelly over McSally (though the polls are more variable).

Senate races also looking pretty safe in Colorado, Maine and North Carolina - enough to give the Democrats control.

Still leaning Republican in Montana, Iowa, Georgia however. So it's incredibly close.
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:51 pm

Wow, I've just viisted an alternative universe where it's all going to hell.

President Clinton just announced she's withdrawing her nomination for re-election, just a week before final ballots are issued. Understandable given her terrible approval rating, following her 3rd impeachment trial and 3rd acquittal. Talk about a failed Presidency: zero legislation, no judges and 4 years of being dominated by Republican House and Senate. The death of Vice President Kaine from Covid-19 and the refusal of the House and Senate to confirm any of her choices for a replacement VP means there's no obvious alternative candidate. Looks like the Democrats are going to nominate the elderly former Vice President, Joe Biden, as their candidate. But he's hiding from Covid in his basement.

With former candidate Donald Trump again being the Republican nominee this means a battle between two very old men. Trump also has terrible polling, but won the primaries with ease. Trump's acquittal in both trials so far has energised his campaign, and he's claiming the further allegations he faces are part of a deep state conspiracy. Most Republicans believe the conviction of Donald Trump Jr was a politically motivated scam and feel sympathy for Trump, most Democrats believe Trump is delighted by the jailing of his son because it has given him a great campaigning cause. Trump's New York state trial has been delayed until 2021 - the false accounting, tax fraud and bank fraud case - and will go ahead even if he wins (no way he could self-pardon himself as President for a state crime).

The awful Covid death toll of 41,600 is dragging down the Democrats and Clinton herself admitted to some of her administration's failings. Some say it would have been even worse without her clear rules on lockdowns and masks, and her world-beating testing regime, but the death of VP Kaine shocked the nation. Clinton sending him on a state trip to London was a fatal mistake - exposing him to the unchecked epidemic in England where they are attempting herd immunity and are the 2nd worst country in the world after India, with 194,000 already dead. With no replacement VP, next in line for the presidency is House Leader Paul Ryan, who won the huge Republican landslide in the House in 2018. The campaign by the 11/22 movement is seen by some to be just a 4chan joke, but is seen by the FBI and Secret Service as a major terrorist and assassination threat.

The election is on a knife-edge. People forget that Clinton only won by 278-260, winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin each by less than 0.7%. Trump just needs to win one of these. And he might well do it, despite generally being known as a criminal, compromised Russian asset and twitter troll - plus the rumours he's a drugged up dementia patient who needs to wear a diaper.
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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:00 pm

You have to give it to Trump, he's the master of "getting in first with accusing his opponent of something he's blatantly done" - this time:

Biden's on drugs.

Really Donald?

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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:12 pm

The Right's fake Biden is so much cooler than the real Biden. I'd love a drugged-up Marxist to take away all their guns.
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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:50 am

Just how lazy/incompetent is Trump's campaign team - using Russian military images in their campaign material.

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Re: US Election

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:10 am

FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:50 am
Just how lazy/incompetent is Trump's campaign team - using Russian military images in their campaign material.
I feel a bit sorry for the intern who was given half an hour to produce it.

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Re: US Election

Post by jimbob » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:19 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:10 am
FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:50 am
Just how lazy/incompetent is Trump's campaign team - using Russian military images in their campaign material.
I feel a bit sorry for the intern who was given half an hour to produce it.
I do wonder if it was deliberate
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:50 am

jimbob wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:19 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:10 am
FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:50 am
Just how lazy/incompetent is Trump's campaign team - using Russian military images in their campaign material.
I feel a bit sorry for the intern who was given half an hour to produce it.
I do wonder if it was deliberate
You could get a full tin-foil/swivel-eyed conspiracy theory going over there being deep-state agents embedded in the Trump campaign to wreck his presidential bid...

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:30 pm

Wouldn't be a conspiracy theory if you made them Russian deep state agents...

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:14 pm

This is useful - be interesting to cross-reference the mail-in voting situation vs the turning-point-ness of each state.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-2020/
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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:49 am

Next stage of evolution in the dirty political campaigning: the US version of Russian troll farms
Washington Post wrote:Teenagers, some of them minors, are being paid to pump out the messages at the direction of Turning Point Action, an affiliate of Turning Point USA, the prominent conservative youth organization based in Phoenix, according to four people with independent knowledge of the effort. Their descriptions were confirmed by detailed notes from relatives of one of the teenagers who recorded conversations with him about the efforts.

The campaign draws on the spam-like behavior of bots and trolls, with the same or similar language posted repeatedly across social media. But it is carried out, at least in part, by humans paid to use their own accounts, though nowhere disclosing their relationship with Turning Point Action or the digital firm brought in to oversee the day-to-day activity. One user included a link to Turning Point USA’s website in his Twitter profile until The Washington Post began asking questions about the activity.

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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:21 am

What befuddles me, and there must be a logic behind somewhere, is that Trump and his campaign seem to spend a lot of time campaigning as if he's not the incumbent.
They've taken the protests that turned violent and then tell people that "this is what it'll be like under Biden"... except that's how it is now. It's made worse by them stealing images and video from non-US violent protests and police/protester clashes.
Now, at an ABC "town hall" Trump berates Biden for not implementing a federal mandate that people wear masks.... WTF?!? That's your job Donald. Biden has repeatedly given out the message for people to wear masks. You're angry because he isn't doing your job for you?

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Re: US Election

Post by Opti » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:31 am

He cannot be killed by conventional weapons. True. He and Mrs Opti are wicked cool.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:25 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:21 am
What befuddles me, and there must be a logic behind somewhere, is that Trump and his campaign seem to spend a lot of time campaigning as if he's not the incumbent.
They've taken the protests that turned violent and then tell people that "this is what it'll be like under Biden"... except that's how it is now. It's made worse by them stealing images and video from non-US violent protests and police/protester clashes.
Now, at an ABC "town hall" Trump berates Biden for not implementing a federal mandate that people wear masks.... WTF?!? That's your job Donald. Biden has repeatedly given out the message for people to wear masks. You're angry because he isn't doing your job for you?
The only tactic is to give people who aren't thinking catchphrases to scream at people who ask why they are supporting Trump.

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Re: US Election

Post by warumich » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:18 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:21 am
What befuddles me, and there must be a logic behind somewhere, is that Trump and his campaign seem to spend a lot of time campaigning as if he's not the incumbent.
They've taken the protests that turned violent and then tell people that "this is what it'll be like under Biden"... except that's how it is now. It's made worse by them stealing images and video from non-US violent protests and police/protester clashes.
Now, at an ABC "town hall" Trump berates Biden for not implementing a federal mandate that people wear masks.... WTF?!? That's your job Donald. Biden has repeatedly given out the message for people to wear masks. You're angry because he isn't doing your job for you?
Part of the reason is that the Trump movement, like Brexit and any other millennial death cult, only work if they are a minority, because the whole theology behind them is that they are fighting a righteous war against an evil oppressor. Finding themselves in power almost always causes problems because the doctrine relies on the fact that other, evil people, are responsible for bad things. There is always somebody working behind the scenes to frustrate the righteous, because if there isn't, then the whole theology falls to pieces.

Trump supporters, Brexit nutters, national socialists, khmer rouge, are not able to see themselves as being in power even when they are because that would negate everything they believe. They must be permanent victims in order to hold fast to their identity, and therefore their time in power is characterised as a long struggle against the real hidden powers that constrain them from bringing about the millennial kingdom.

There is tons of sociological research on this, which is all rather worrying.
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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:27 pm

warumich wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:18 pm
Part of the reason is that the Trump movement, like Brexit and any other millennial death cult, only work if they are a minority, because the whole theology behind them is that they are fighting a righteous war against an evil oppressor. Finding themselves in power almost always causes problems because the doctrine relies on the fact that other, evil people, are responsible for bad things. There is always somebody working behind the scenes to frustrate the righteous, because if there isn't, then the whole theology falls to pieces.

Trump supporters, Brexit nutters, national socialists, khmer rouge, are not able to see themselves as being in power even when they are because that would negate everything they believe. They must be permanent victims in order to hold fast to their identity, and therefore their time in power is characterised as a long struggle against the real hidden powers that constrain them from bringing about the millennial kingdom.

There is tons of sociological research on this, which is all rather worrying.
That fits completely with Trump's (and his supporters') Deep State theories. Also nothing can be his/their fault.

I hadn't realised/twigged there were so many historical examples and that none of them are pleasant...

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Re: US Election

Post by Martin Y » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:26 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:27 pm
warumich wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:18 pm
Part of the reason is that the Trump movement, like Brexit and any other millennial death cult, only work if they are a minority, because the whole theology behind them is that they are fighting a righteous war against an evil oppressor. Finding themselves in power almost always causes problems because the doctrine relies on the fact that other, evil people, are responsible for bad things. There is always somebody working behind the scenes to frustrate the righteous, because if there isn't, then the whole theology falls to pieces.

Trump supporters, Brexit nutters, national socialists, khmer rouge, are not able to see themselves as being in power even when they are because that would negate everything they believe. They must be permanent victims in order to hold fast to their identity, and therefore their time in power is characterised as a long struggle against the real hidden powers that constrain them from bringing about the millennial kingdom.

There is tons of sociological research on this, which is all rather worrying.
That fits completely with Trump's (and his supporters') Deep State theories. Also nothing can be his/their fault.

I hadn't realised/twigged there were so many historical examples and that none of them are pleasant...
It also rather makes me think of Brexiteers' kneejerk reaction to any criticism of the unfolding fiasco; it's basically still "they're trying to stop Brexit" when it needs to be "holy sh.t, nothing is going to stop Brexit, maybe we ought to pull our thumb out our bum and actually do something". The mentality is they're the underdog who wants to Take Back Control when the reality is they've been in control for quite a while now and the cliff edge is fast approaching. (soz for off-topic but I thought it an interesting parallel)

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