Scrutable

Collins and McSally look like they're going to lose their seats. Graham is level with Harrison at this stage, remarkably, but McConnell is safe in Kentucky.

Graham and Harrison had a hilarious ding dong this week after Graham, brown-noser extraordinaire, demanded Harrison release his taxes (he did so from a gun store, because of course) after years of defending Trump not doing the same. Harrison did so immediately, and demanded Graham ask the same of Trump.

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ja ... d7b8576914

A pollster who had Trump 1 point up in Maine-2 now has Biden 9 points up there. I don't know if this means anything.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:18 pm

A pollster who had Trump 1 point up in Maine-2 now has Biden 9 points up there. I don't know if this means anything.

Could be just noise, but there's also a shift in sampling strategy. The latest poll has sample size of 476, so 4.5% standard error on each candidate, 9% on the difference between them.

The previous Quinnipiac poll had a sample size of 382. And was of Registered Voters, while the latest is Likely Voters. ME-2 is highly white non-college rural, which means Trump loses support on the switch from registered to likely voters.

Great, ME-2, I'll up my Biden EC score from 333 to 334.

COMRADES! Join the National Commission to Promote Patriotic Education!

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:22 pm

COMRADES! Join the National Commission to Promote Patriotic Education!

I know you like gnomic posts, but I have no idea about this one

jimbob wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:52 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:22 pm

COMRADES! Join the National Commission to Promote Patriotic Education!

I know you like gnomic posts, but I have no idea about this one

Trump's "1776 Commission"

ETA - The intro to this paper on "Lessons in Loyalty: American Patriotism and Education in the Progressive Era " - "Manufactured Jingoism"

From an (ok a not disterested) Englishman in 1897:

Howard disparaged the quality of the nation’s textbooks, which he deemed “absurdly unreliable as history, though doubtless stimulating enough to national vanity.” Indeed, Howard continued, “after studying the school systems of several States between New York and Minnesota, I have concluded that the object of the United States Government is not to teach history but patriotism.”
Howard expressed dismay at American schools’ tendency to only “manufacture Jingoes” and warned that in addition to teaching questionable history, “[the school] has forged a yet more stirring weapon in the form of school songs, which I understand are sung to the waving of one-cent flags.”

Via the Gruniard, one of the AEI ghouls gives us the textbook definition of self-serving evil

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... story.html

Tl;Dr version. She manages to list Trump's (many) failures as achievements and his (few) achievements as failures. Hand waves away his outright corruption and authoritarianism as being trivial while painting an absurd picture of Biden-as-Mao in the thrall of "extreme leftists" (or as the rest of the world would define them moderate centre-right and centrists) with such fringe positions as accepting AGW and national healthcare.

Leaven with lashings of moaning privilege and a fair degree of projection regarding warped political perceptions and you're left with a masterclass in self-serving can't.

Either Rasmussen know something that literally every other pollster doesn't, or their methodology is a teensy veensy bit flawed. They've got Trump's approval at +7 today.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:50 pm

Either Rasmussen know something that literally every other pollster doesn't, or their methodology is a teensy veensy bit flawed. They've got Trump's approval at +7 today.

They have a hotline to who's hacking the voting machines for Putin?

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:50 pm

Either Rasmussen know something that literally every other pollster doesn't, or their methodology is a teensy veensy bit flawed. They've got Trump's approval at +7 today.

Or they’ve sampled some different people. The only poll to consistently call the last election correctly had a black Trump voter in its panel of pollees.

Grumble wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:17 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:50 pm

Either Rasmussen know something that literally every other pollster doesn't, or their methodology is a teensy veensy bit flawed. They've got Trump's approval at +7 today.

Or they’ve sampled some different people. The only poll to consistently call the last election correctly had a black Trump voter in its panel of pollees.

Indeed. Except that every time there's an election and pollsters get it wrong, they correct for the next election to account for that. It's highly unlikely that the bias which was uncovered last time remains this time.

Grumble wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:17 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:50 pm

Either Rasmussen know something that literally every other pollster doesn't, or their methodology is a teensy veensy bit flawed. They've got Trump's approval at +7 today.

Or they’ve sampled some different people. The only poll to consistently call the last election correctly had a black Trump voter in its panel of pollees.

That poll was further from the correct results than other polls. It just got the result right, while missing the popular vote by a significant margin.

It's USC Dornsife, by the way, which has been between Biden +7 and Biden +15 so far.

There are already queues to vote in Virginia.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:07 pm

There are already queues to vote in Virginia.

Remember people, vote early and vote often.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:07 pm

There are already queues to vote in Virginia.

Is today poll opening day?

And has begun in Minnesota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

The queue in Wyoming is quite long, three of the state's voters standing outside waiting for the doors to open. The other two voters and the dog will presumably wait till voting day.

Grumble wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:24 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:07 pm

There are already queues to vote in Virginia.

Is today poll opening day?

Yeah, for early voting there. I don't think we get early voting until mid October

f.ck. Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died, leaving Mitch McConnell with a Supreme Court seat that definitely can't be filled in an election year.

Oh no.

sh.t

The whole "supreme court judge till you die" thing is dumb. Would the dems be able to fix it with enough bums on seats?

If they win the house, Senate and presidency. And the supreme court lets the results stand.

It's in the Constitution, Article 3, Section 1. They "hold their Offices during good Behaviour" with no provision for a fixed term.

So no, Congress and the President can't change this on their own. It would require a constitutional amendment. Which would take 2/3 votes in the House and the Senate, and then ratification by 3/4 of the states. Not really imaginable in the near term.