US Election

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lpm
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:44 pm

They are after money, not votes.

They can safely assume all genuine 100,000 expressing interest in the rally are going to vote for him. Oklahoma (and Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri) will be safe in November unless there's a Biden landslide.

This was not a swing-state rally, it was a cash-in from your base of suckers rally.

I bet it only takes 5 minutes to check the new database for Maga morons who've already donated, another 5 minutes to check for lesser morons who've never donated but have responded in other ways over the past four years, another 5 minutes for a quick cross-check against other stuff like a database of merchandise buyers. That's enough for a targeted money drive, leaving some mass mail out for all the rest of the million.
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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:39 pm

Tulsa fire marshal - there were 6200 for Trump's rally

(of course, that'll be fake news, but you knew that already...)

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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:02 pm

Take that libtards!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 6767815681


In fact the Bunker King was so overwhelmed by his support from the Silent Majority in Tulsa that today he has been mostly tweeting about ... Spoiler:


If he can just get the Air Force to target the Caracas Animal Rescue Shelter with their sooper-dooper missiles he could have literal dead-cats to throw on the table.
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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:22 pm

The MAGAtwats BTL can't quite agree on the correct response line:-


Ackshully 6000 is an awesome turnout!!!!

Trump got a million ticket requests, and they were definitely not from enraged K-Pop fans.

No no look the arena was full, look here's a picture of a rally in Hershey, PA in 2019 to prove it.


I'm surprised these people can function at a high-enough level to be allowed access to the internet unsupervised :shock:
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Re: US Election

Post by tom p » Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:56 am

bagpuss wrote:
Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:15 pm
tom p wrote:
Mon Jun 22, 2020 12:18 pm
lpm wrote:
Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:06 am
I don't understand that thread?

If you have a database of 1,000,000, of which 900,000 are trolls, you can still send 1,000,000 emails asking for cash. Your 100,000 target will still get them. The Trump begging requests aren't particularly sophisticated - they just constantly bombard with emails and texts asking for money.

Once you get a single donation, you're away, you get stuck into the data and try to maximise the revenue stream from the sucker.

You can send bots out into the database. If they fail to link up with a real human's Facebook account, they fail. If they succeed, you get a return and can start asking for cash. If you don't care about the percentage of hits - and I don't see why you would - you still get the benefit of the absolute number of real responses.
She explains it in the reply to let them eat cupcakes. I, and they, initially clearly thought the same as you.
Turns out there's more to it than you might expect, including higher costs just for sending 10x the emails you otherwise would have.
I'm not entirely sure I agree with the logic of her argument there. Much of the additional cost mentioned is the overhead of creative, test design, funnel management, data analysts' time, etc, etc. And 10x the number of email addresses doesn't equate to 10x the cost of those things. The data analysts are going to have a massive headache trying to clean the data, that's for sure (my week is suddenly looking a whole lot better knowing that I won't be among them), but the other things won't multiply up very much.

That said, there are definitely additional costs that aren't always obvious. For example, software for handling large scale email campaigns often has variable license costs banded based on the number of email addresses stored in the system. Adding another 900k email addresses that are probably all completely new to you as they're not already in your target base could very well take you up to the next band and cost you money.

There are subtler impacts too - such as sender reputation. This can affect whether your emails actually make it to the inboxes of your intended recipients, and one thing that can adversely affect your reputation score is the number of emails you send out. The number of bounces you get is another - so if those K-Pop fan added emails are not real, their bounce rate is going to go sky high. Yet another is how many of your recipients mark your emails as spam. So I hope that all those K-Pop fans who used genuine email addresses will mark every email they get from the Trump campaign as spam, which will than affect the likelihood of any true Trump supporter actually receiving his emails.

ETA: the bit about bounces
That's really interesting. Thanks

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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:47 pm

Here's Kayleigh McEnany, the White House press secretary take on Trump's Emptysberg Address:-
The President was very pleased with the rally. I was with him. And I just have to say these media reports that he was somehow furious on the plane – there is no grounding in fact to that.

A political pundit wrote to him that it was one of the all-time great speeches they’d ever heard

… The speech made his message so clear and compelling that no one could possibly have missed it. And it was so great to be out of the swamp and in the country. And those comments are how the president feels, too.

Now as you've all been very good, as a special treat, here's 15 minutes of some of his glorious soaring prose to lift your souls:-

Forget "I have a dream" this is the speech Merkian 7th graders will be memorising and reciting at school 100 years from now. I'm just welling up thinking about it :cry:
Donald Trump: (21:55)
So if you want to save your [inaudible 00:21:57], you want to say that beautiful heritage of ours, we have a great heritage. We’re a great country. You are so lucky I’m president, that’s all I can tell you.

audience: (22:19)
USA! USA! USA! USA!

Donald Trump: (22:40)
People have come up to me, say, “How do you take it?” I say, “Do I have a choice? Do I have a choice?” We deal with a lot of bad people, but we’re winning. And every once in a while, I’ll have one of these days where I’m hit left and right, left and right, like even this great event. If you could have seen outside or if you could have heard the reports, the reports, “Oh, it’s COVID.” It’s this again. By the way, it’s a disease without question, has more names than any disease in history. I can name, “Kung flu.” I can name, 19 different versions of names. Many call it a virus, which it is. Many call it a flu, what difference? I think we have 19 or 20 versions of the name. But they say to me, “Where do you get the energy?” I say, “I don’t have a choice. I don’t have a choice.” It was interesting, to show you how fake they are, you might’ve seen it. So last week they called me and they say, “Sir, West Point, West Point, we’re ready.” I said, “Oh, that’s right. I have to make the commencement speech at West Point.”

Donald Trump: (23:59)
You know, they delayed it for six weeks because of COVID. So they delayed it and I went there. 1,106 cadets were graduated and beautiful. Beautiful [inaudible 00:00:24:14]. Just to show you how bad the fake news is, so they say to me, “Sir, we’re ready to go.” I say, “Let’s go.” This is after saying hello to a lot of cadets, inspecting little areas of a building, that was very exciting. Actually, it’s beautiful, very old. Studied a lot of our great generals, some of our presidents that went there. West Point is beautiful, right on the Hudson River. But after an hour, the general that runs it is a fantastic guy. After an hour, we land, we do some more inspections and they say, “Sir, are you ready? Yes, I am.” So we walked like the equivalent of about three blocks, which is fine. We go onstage, which is fine. They make speeches, then I make a speech that lasted a long time. I don’t know, maybe 45 minutes, maybe longer, I don’t know but a long time. The sun is pouring down on me, okay.

Donald Trump: (25:12)
But they said to me before the speech, “Sir, would you like to salute each cadet, each single cadet? Or maybe there’ll be in groups of two. Would you like to salute? Like this? Yes.” Like this, almost 600 times. You know what that is? 600 times. Thank God they were in twos because let me tell you, you do that 600 times, you go home and you say it’s like a workout without a weight, right? 600 times. So I did that. Then the incredible helicopters, brand new gorgeous helicopters, the Apaches and the other new ones that we just bought.

Donald Trump: (26:03)
Helicopters, the Apaches and the other new ones that we just bought. So they fly over and the kids throw the hats in the air, it’s beautiful, it really is. It was a beautiful day and we’re all finished. I was on the stage for hours, hours, sun, I came home, I had a nice tan, meaning I had a nice sunburn. The sun’s [inaudible 00:26:30] like that, but I make this speech. I salute for probably an hour and a half, maybe more, but around that. Watch. If I’m off by two minutes they’ll say, “He exaggerated. It was only an hour and 25 minutes. He exaggerated, he lied, he lied, he’s a liar.” These people are sick, the fake news.

Donald Trump: (26:59)
So then I finish saluting my final salute, I said, “Thank goodness. Thank you very much.” Think of it. So essentially almost 600 times. Now the general says, “Sir, are you ready?” I said, “I’m ready General, where are we going now?” You have to understand I left early in the morning to get there. Now it’s sort of late in the afternoon. A lot of these fakers were with us. So they know. He said, ” Sir, we can now leave the stage.” I said, “Great general, let’s go, I’ll follow you,” and he goes like this, “Right here, sir,” and I walked off. The stage was higher than this one and the ramp was probably 10 yards long. I say, “General.” Now you got to understand, I have the whole corps of cadets looking at me and I want them to love their president, I did this big thing. I love them, I love them. They’re incredible, and they do. I said, “General, I’ve got myself a problem, general.” Because I’m wearing leather bottom shoes which is good if you’re walking on flat surfaces. It’s not good for ramps and if I fall down, look at all those press back there, look at them. This was a steel ramp, you all saw it because everybody saw it. This was a steel ramp. It had no handrail, it was like an ice skating rink, and I said, “General, I have a problem,” and he didn’t understand that at first. I said, “There’s no way.” He understood, I just saluted almost 600 times. I just made a big speech. I sat for other speeches. I’m being baked. I’m being baked like a cake. I said, “General, there’s no way I can make it down that ramp without falling on my ass, General. I have no railing.”

Donald Trump: (29:27)
It’s true. So I said, “Is there like something else around?” “Sir, the ramp is ready to go.” “Grab me sir, grab me.” I didn’t really want to grab him. You know why? Because I said, “That will be a story too.” So now I have a choice. I can stay up there for another couple of hours and wait till I’m rescued or I can go down this really steep, really, really, really … It’s an ice skating rink, it’s brutal. So I said, “General, get ready because I may grab you so fast.” Because I can’t fall with the fake news watching. If I fall, if I fall, I remember when President Ford fell out of the plane, do you remember? I remember when another president, nice man, threw up in Japan, and they did slow motion replays. It’s true, right? “I don’t want that, general.” Now he’s standing there, big strong guy, and he’s got these shoes but they’re loaded with rubber on the bottom because I looked, the first thing I did, I looked at his shoes. Then I looked at mine. Very, very slippery. So I end up saying, “Okay, general, let’s go. I will only grab you if I need you. That’s not a good story. Falling would be a disaster. It turned out to be worse than anything, I would have been better off if I fell and slid down the damn ramp. Right? So what happens is I start the journey, inch by inch, right? I was really bent over too. I didn’t like that. I didn’t like this picture. This picture I’m sure will be an ad by the fakers. So I was bent over, right? Bent over like this. Then we finally reached almost the end and the fake news, the most dishonest human beings, they cut it off. You know why? Because when I was 10 feet short, I said, “General, I’m sorry,” and I ran down the rest, right? I looked very handsome. That was the only good. I wouldn’t want to run down the whole thing because the fall there would be definitely bad. So I took these little steps, I ran down the last 10, and by the way their tape, take a look. In almost every instance, it ends just before I run, and they said, “Here was the number one trending story.”

Donald Trump: (32:43)
I call my wife, I said, “How good was that speech? I thought it was a …” Hey look, I will tell you when I make good ones and bad ones. Like so far tonight, I’m average, but we’re having fun, we’re having fun. So far tonight, but I call my wife and I said, “How good was it, darling?” She said, “You’re trending number one.” I said to our great first lady, I said, “Let me ask you a question. Was it that good of a speech that I’m trending number one? Because I felt it was really good.” No no, they don’t even mention the speech. They mention the fact that you may have Parkinson’s disease. It’s true. It’s true. It’s true.

Donald Trump: (33:48)
They say there is something wrong with our president. I’ll let you know if there’s something wrong, okay? I’ll let you know if there’s something, I’ll tell you what, there’s something wrong with Biden, that I could tell you.

Donald Trump: (34:07)
So then my wife said, “Well it wasn’t only the ramp. Did you have water?” I said, “Yeah. I was speaking for a long time. I didn’t want to drink it, but I wanted to wet my lips a little bit.” You’re drinking, you’re working hard up there with the sun pouring down on you. I love this location, the sun’s like this. This way they save on lighting, right? That’s why they did it probably. So what happens is I said, “What does it have to do with water?” They said, “You couldn’t lift your hand up to your mouth with water.” I said, “I just saluted 600 times like this, and this was before I saluted, so what’s the problem?” She said, “Well I know what you did. You had on a very good red tie that’s sort of expensive.” It’s silk because they look better. They have a better sheen to them. And I don’t want to get water on the tie, and I don’t want to drink much, so I lift it up, the water.

Donald Trump: (35:15)
I see we have a little glass of water. Where the hell did this water come from? Where did it come from? I look down at my tie because I’ve done it. I’ve taken water and it spills down onto your tie, doesn’t look good for a long time and frankly, the tie is never the same. So I put it up to my lip and then I say, “[inaudible 00:35:36]”, and they gave me another disease. They gave me another disease. Anyway, that’s a long story, but here’s the story. I have lived with more the ramp than the water but I have lived with the ramp and the water since I left West Point. Not one media group said I made a good speech or I made a great speech, but the kids loved it because they broke their barrier which wasn’t good in terms of COVID but they broke their barrier and they wanted to shake hands, they wanted to … I don’t want to tell anybody, but there were a couple of kids, they put out their hand, I actually shook their hand, okay? I actually shook them. Because they were excited. They were excited. They were with their president. They were excited. The most beautiful young people. Men, women, the most beautiful young people you’ve ever seen. So think of how you feel if you’re me. I go there, how did I do? “Sir, that was a great speech.” You know all my people, “Sir, that was one of your best, that was great.” I said, “That’s great, I agree, it was a good speech. I like that speech.” They don’t mention the speech but they have been going down this ramp [inaudible 00:37:36]. It’s so unfair. It really is. So unfair. They are among the most dishonest people anywhere on earth. They’re bad people. Bad people.

Donald Trump: (37:54)
Okay, that’s enough of that. I wanted to tell that story. Does everybody understand that story?
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:32 pm

The Simpsons could see into the future - it reads like a Grandpa Simpson story.
Donald Trump wrote:I needed a new heel for my shoe, so, I decided to go to Morganville, which is what they called Shelbyville in those days. So I tied an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time. Now, to take the ferry cost a nickel, and in those days, nickels had pictures of bumblebees on 'em. "Give me five bees for a quarter," you'd say.

Now where were we? Oh yeah: the important thing was I had an onion on my belt, which was the style at the time. They didn't have white onions because of the war. The only thing you could get was those big yellow ones.
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:56 pm

I read an interest comment. Trump was rambling on about how he bought new TVs for Airforce One. For minutes. The audience was pretty bored.

Trump was monologuing away and said "dumb son of a bitch". The crowd went wild. This is what they wanted: a President who said son of a bitch. They didn't know who the son of a bitch was, nor did they care, it would be some lib fake news democrat enemy who was the son of a bitch.

The comment was about how Trump has now dissolved into nothing but a "son of a bitch" President, only capable of igniting his fan base with infantile abuse and simultaneously looking like an idiot to the rest of the country. Gone are simple but clear policy goals like "drain the swamp" or "win a trade war against China" or "build the wall". It's now just pantomime booing of the enemy.

Which isn't entertaining enough for reelection.

Video here:
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1274509791470256128
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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:33 pm

F'ing hell that's one heck of a rambling story.

I wonder which random 'general' he was essentially taking the piss out of?

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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:25 am

Possibly the same one that he wanted to hold his hand whilst he struggled to walk down a shallow ramp.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:25 am

Just one poll - but a respected one, the NY Times Upshot poll. Rated A+ by 538.

Biden +14 (Biden 50, Trump 36).

Its weighting in the model is so high it bumps the 538 average to Biden +10.4.
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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:30 am

What gets me is that he obviously lies and just says the first thing that comes into his head. Yet he is still considered to be suitable by some.

The whole very straight -faced injecting bleach and shining light inside comments were quickly turned to him "just joking" when everyone pointed out how stupid he was... and yet at his rally the other day he came out with the comment about him telling people to slow down the testing as that would make the numbers look better. Then when people pointed out that was dumb, spokespeople in the WH said, "no he's just joking". Fauci and others actually then said that Trump had never told them to slow testing, then what does Trump do? Deny everything people have said and say, nope, he wasn't joking he really did tell them to slow testing. So in the same breath either: he shows up the WH staff for trying to spin to cover for him and his Health officials as the are either lying to cover for him and he's plain stupid for asking people to slow testing OR he's just stupid, making sh.t up and doesn't care. Either way he should just be highlighting how incompetent he is and how he shouldn't be reelected - but no that apparently is what some people want...

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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:49 am

FWIW Amy McGrath is winning the Kentucky senate primary for the Democrats. Results of polls on her vs McConnell are somewhat variable. There haven't been many - the ones there are since August last year - but most of them show a broadly neck and neck positioning. However, the most recent is that Civiqs one, which is a strong outlier compared to the rest. That shows Booker doing better than McGrath, but both still losing strongly.
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Re: US Election

Post by bjn » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:09 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:49 am
FWIW Amy McGrath is winning the Kentucky senate primary for the Democrats. Results of polls on her vs McConnell are somewhat variable. There haven't been many - the ones there are since August last year - but most of them show a broadly neck and neck positioning. However, the most recent is that Civiqs one, which is a strong outlier compared to the rest. That shows Booker doing better than McGrath, but both still losing strongly.
Would that be the same Kentucky that just cut 95% of its polling stations? Where you now have over 600,000 people with one polling station, who completely coincidentally are mostly black Americans?

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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:33 am

Amy McGrath is the fighter pilot with that advert in 2018 - the advert packed with more shots of jets taking off from aircraft carriers than Top Gun.
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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:22 pm

Just watching Colbert's interview of that haunted w.nk-sock Bolton.

It's been obvious for a while what a contemptible, amoral snivelling coward Bolton was; what really shines through in the interview though is he is also mind-numbingly thick too.

Still while I'm happy that his book will have Trump's obvious unsuitability to be POTUS continue to be front and centre for the next few news cycles, I just hope it gets widely pirated so the horrible c.nt doesn't earn a cent out of it.
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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:14 pm

Little waster wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:22 pm
Just watching Colbert's interview of that haunted w.nk-sock Bolton.

It's been obvious for a while what a contemptible, amoral snivelling coward Bolton was; what really shines through in the interview though is he is also mind-numbingly thick too.

Still while I'm happy that his book will have Trump's obvious unsuitability to be POTUS continue to be front and centre for the next few news cycles, I just hope it gets widely pirated so the horrible c.nt doesn't earn a cent out of it.
There are links to PDFs of it available on all good social media sites.

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Re: US Election

Post by jimbob » Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:24 pm

dyqik wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:14 pm
Little waster wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:22 pm
Just watching Colbert's interview of that haunted w.nk-sock Bolton.

It's been obvious for a while what a contemptible, amoral snivelling coward Bolton was; what really shines through in the interview though is he is also mind-numbingly thick too.

Still while I'm happy that his book will have Trump's obvious unsuitability to be POTUS continue to be front and centre for the next few news cycles, I just hope it gets widely pirated so the horrible c.nt doesn't earn a cent out of it.
There are links to PDFs of it available on all good social media sites.
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:47 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:25 am
Just one poll - but a respected one, the NY Times Upshot poll. Rated A+ by 538.

Biden +14 (Biden 50, Trump 36).

Its weighting in the model is so high it bumps the 538 average to Biden +10.4.
Today they've released their polls for the key states.

Biden lead (Clinton loss in brackets)

Michigan: +11 (-0.2)
Pennsylvania: +10 (-0.7)
Wisconsin: +11 (-0.8)
Florida: +6 (-1.2)
Arizona: +7 (-3.6)
North Carolina: +9 (-3.7)

Winning those states would give Biden 333 vs Trump 205 in the electoral college. (Reminder: winning the three marginals of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin gives Biden a win 278 vs 260).
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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:16 am

It's worth noting that the poll here was taken somewhat before (8-18th June) the current increase in CoVID-19 cases was really taking off.

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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:15 pm

It's interesting there's almost no polling of Trump target states:

New Hampshire (Clinton +0.4)
Minnesota (+1.5)
Nevada (+2.4)

Nobody seems to think Trump is making an attempt to expand his options - he is sticking to a single route. He is just trying to keep one of Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. He scraped through this narrow pathway by a few tens of thousands of votes in 2016. It would be remarkable to repeat the exact same trick.
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Re: US Election

Post by jimbob » Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:54 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:15 pm
It's interesting there's almost no polling of Trump target states:

New Hampshire (Clinton +0.4)
Minnesota (+1.5)
Nevada (+2.4)

Nobody seems to think Trump is making an attempt to expand his options - he is sticking to a single route. He is just trying to keep one of Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. He scraped through this narrow pathway by a few tens of thousands of votes in 2016. It would be remarkable to repeat the exact same trick.
Doing the Kentucky, "one polling station for 600,000 people" might be a way forward for him
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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:09 pm

jimbob wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:54 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:15 pm
It's interesting there's almost no polling of Trump target states:

New Hampshire (Clinton +0.4)
Minnesota (+1.5)
Nevada (+2.4)

Nobody seems to think Trump is making an attempt to expand his options - he is sticking to a single route. He is just trying to keep one of Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. He scraped through this narrow pathway by a few tens of thousands of votes in 2016. It would be remarkable to repeat the exact same trick.
Doing the Kentucky, "one polling station for 600,000 people" might be a way forward for him
There seems to be a fair bit of controversy about the provision of postal voting during covid, especially in Republican states (though I'm not up on the details).
now I'm falling asleep and she's calling acab

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dyqik
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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:37 pm

538 points out that Biden is over 50% in the polls. The last times presidential candidates were over 50% vote share in June were Nixon in '72 and Reagan in '84, although Biden's lead isn't as big as theirs were.

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dyqik
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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:39 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:09 pm
jimbob wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:54 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:15 pm
It's interesting there's almost no polling of Trump target states:

New Hampshire (Clinton +0.4)
Minnesota (+1.5)
Nevada (+2.4)

Nobody seems to think Trump is making an attempt to expand his options - he is sticking to a single route. He is just trying to keep one of Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. He scraped through this narrow pathway by a few tens of thousands of votes in 2016. It would be remarkable to repeat the exact same trick.
Doing the Kentucky, "one polling station for 600,000 people" might be a way forward for him
There seems to be a fair bit of controversy about the provision of postal voting during covid, especially in Republican states (though I'm not up on the details).
There weren't actually massive queues at that polling place (which was an arena sized space), AFAICT, but I don't know if that's because people didn't go or because they voted by mail. The people it covered were mostly living within 30 minutes drive of it, as well.

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