Scrutable

bolo wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:44 pm

Here in Virginia, there is a state constitutional amendment on the ballot that would take redistricting out of the hands of the state legislature and governor and give it to a nonpartisan commission. The Dems fought hard for this, until late last year when they suddenly found themselves with a Dem governor and a Dem controlled state legislature and a chance at getting their own back through some pro-Dem gerrymandering.

It is, I have to admit, hard to decide how to vote on this measure.

This is similar to Labour's logic in not campaigning for PR on the grounds FPTP sometimes gives them huge majorities.

1. This ignores the fact that the status quo favours the Tories more often than them

2. Undemocratic act is undemocratic act even when we do it. Vote for commission.

JQH wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:07 pm

bolo wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:44 pm

Here in Virginia, there is a state constitutional amendment on the ballot that would take redistricting out of the hands of the state legislature and governor and give it to a nonpartisan commission. The Dems fought hard for this, until late last year when they suddenly found themselves with a Dem governor and a Dem controlled state legislature and a chance at getting their own back through some pro-Dem gerrymandering.

It is, I have to admit, hard to decide how to vote on this measure.

This is similar to Labour's logic in not campaigning for PR on the grounds FPTP sometimes gives them huge majorities.

1. This ignores the fact that the status quo favours the Tories more often than them

2. Undemocratic act is undemocratic act even when we do it. Vote for commission.

Exactly - and there's a chance you'd want to get rid of an incumbent of a different stripe later

Things that were previously agreed as the way things were done turn out not to have been actual laws. Things which were assumed to protect democracy. It would be good to make them laws.

So various Trump supporters are touting the "unredacted Russia report" which will show that Obama and Hilary deliberately concocted the investigation into Donald, which obviously showed him to be a paragon of virtue. This thereby shows that it's your patriotic duty to vote for Trump/Pence and definitely not Biden/Harris.

FlammableFlower wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:55 pm

So various Trump supporters are touting the "unredacted Russia report" which will show that Obama and Hilary deliberately concocted the investigation into Donald, which obviously showed him to be a paragon of virtue. This thereby shows that it's your patriotic duty to vote for Trump/Pence and definitely not Biden/Harris.

Last time he said he'd declassify them, his own Justice Department argued in court that his tweets were speculation and politics, not fact.

Ummm, he knows about this, right?

One of the interesting background stories to this election is fundraising and spending. Trump started with a financial advantage, but between very strong Dem fundraising across the board and alleged embezzlement of tens of millions from Trump's campaign, Biden and the Democrats have a strong advantage financially.

Already, Trump has pulled ads from Ohio and Iowa, while Biden's big ad buys in Ohio are about to start running. Now Trump's scaling back ads in the big three midwest swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Biden has started to target Texas, and is forcing the out-fundraised Repubs to fight on more fronts than they can manage.

The Lincoln Project's "Operation Sam Houston" is targetting Texas too, and has already drawn a meltdown from the GOP's chair in that state.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:04 pm

One of the interesting background stories to this election is fundraising and spending. Trump started with a financial advantage, but between very strong Dem fundraising across the board and alleged embezzlement of tens of millions from Trump's campaign, Biden and the Democrats have a strong advantage financially.

Already, Trump has pulled ads from Ohio and Iowa, while Biden's big ad buys in Ohio are about to start running. Now Trump's scaling back ads in the big three midwest swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Biden has started to target Texas, and is forcing the out-fundraised Repubs to fight on more fronts than they can manage.

The Lincoln Project's "Operation Sam Houston" is targetting Texas too, and has already drawn a meltdown from the GOP's chair in that state.

f.ck. Made a mistake on this on got the midwest states wrong. The states are Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, NOT Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania is a weird one. One end is East Coast, the middle is Pennsyltucky and the other end is mid-West/industrial heartland.

Look like Trump's strategy is to target Pennsylvania, Florida Arizona and Nevada, and to a much lesser extent the rest of the midwest, and hope he doesn't lose in the states like Ohio and Iowa, that he's pulled out from, and Georgia, and perhaps to go back with a last minute ad blitz, though that might prove less effective with so much early voting this time.

Thing is, he needs basically every state I've mentioned. He can't afford to lose Florida or Ohio or Georgia or Iowa, even though he's down in the first, slightly down in the latter, neck-a-neck in the third and slightly up in the fourth, and he still needs to hang on to some of the midwest, which Biden leads in. Arizona is another one he can't afford to lose, but even if he somehow manages to win in Nevada, a state Clinton held, he's still got to win in the midwest.

Effectively, as things stand, Trump has to win in every battleground race there is, even ones he's given up on, or that are consistently polling 6+ point leads for Biden. Biden only has to win a few.

There's also North Carolina, which is enough for Biden.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:50 am

There's also North Carolina, which is enough for Biden.

Yeah. As it stands, Biden's got a lot of ors while Trump has a lot of ands on their paiths to 270 EVs

some of the latest polls are starting to look a bit... unbelievable. Biden ahead by 11 points in Florida. 13 points in Pennsylvania. Five points in Iowa. Two points in Texas. Seven points in North Carolina. One point in Ohio. Only two points behind in Missouri (which voted for Trump by a margin of 18.5 points in 2016).

Maybe those are outliers, maybe not. Maybe it'll trend back towards Trump a little bit, maybe not. But on these numbers Biden has a chance of getting a landslide.

Surely we can't be about to enter a world of relatively normal politics? Surely not. I won't believe until I can put my finger where the nails were.

It's a humiliation for Trump if Texas falls to the blues.

I've been tracking the Iowa Senate race, where Theresa "scrappy farm kid with farm kid values" Greenfield has slightly - but consistently - led the Republican Joni Ernst for a couple of months. She just travels the state, visiting local businesses, talking about social security & farming and recovery for the Covid impact. Seems to be working.

The Senate outcome was a massive disappointment in 2018. More important that Greenfield wins in Iowa than Biden does.

Another (not very) interesting factoid - if Trump wins Ohio but Biden wins the election, it'll break Ohio's perfect bellwether streak since 1964. The state has only gone the other way than the national result twice since 1896.

Very much premature chicken counting, and probably jinx causing, but there's various levels of Trump humiliation.

Basic:

MI, WI, PA, AZ = 290 vs 248 (2 state win)

Silver:

Add FL, NC = 334 vs 204 (4 state win)

Gold:

Add OH, GA, IA, TX = 413 vs 125 (8 state win)

Platinum:

Add random others for added lols, e.g Alaska, SC, KS = 431 vs 107.

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:54 am

Very much premature chicken counting, and probably jinx causing, but there's various levels of Trump humiliation.

Basic:

MI, WI, PA, AZ = 290 vs 248 (2 state win)

Silver:

Add FL, NC = 334 vs 204 (4 state win)

Gold:

Add OH, GA, IA, TX = 413 vs 125 (8 state win)

Platinum:

Add random others for added lols, e.g Alaska, SC, KS = 431 vs 107.

Nurse! lpm needs sedating again.

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:54 am

Very much premature chicken counting, and probably jinx causing, but there's various levels of Trump humiliation.

Basic:

MI, WI, PA, AZ = 290 vs 248 (2 state win)

Silver:

Add FL, NC = 334 vs 204 (4 state win)

Gold:

Add OH, GA, IA, TX = 413 vs 125 (8 state win)

Platinum:

Add random others for added lols, e.g Alaska, SC, KS = 431 vs 107.

Lol-tastic Biden +14/+18/+15 A/RV/LV national poll this morning that puts Platinum within reach. Missouri with 10EV should be in that tier as well.

(that's probably an outlier)

Lol-tastic South Carolina senate poll today as well. Harrison ahead of Graham by a point (though it's a partisan-sponsored poll).

Double digit leads for Biden in every national GE poll today.

Am I the only one not remotely surprised by the polls?

Trump only just squeaked through in 2016 and he's lost a huge amount of support since then. The only way he was ever going to legitimately win 2020 was if the Dems really, really f.cked it up, which they seem to have avoided so far.

Don't let him die, don't let him die, don't let him die.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:41 pm

FlammableFlower wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:55 pm

So various Trump supporters are touting the "unredacted Russia report" which will show that Obama and Hilary deliberately concocted the investigation into Donald, which obviously showed him to be a paragon of virtue. This thereby shows that it's your patriotic duty to vote for Trump/Pence and definitely not Biden/Harris.

Last time he said he'd declassify them, his own Justice Department argued in court that his tweets were speculation and politics, not fact.

Despite that ruling, Buzzfeed are making a play for the unredacted Mueller Report.

tenchboy wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:37 pm

Don't let him die, don't let him die, don't let him die.

No he needs removing as quickly as possible

jimbob wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 09, 2020 6:13 am

tenchboy wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:37 pm

Don't let him die, don't let him die, don't let him die.

No he needs removing as quickly as possible

Yes but after he loses the election.
A few weeks won't make a difference.
He's got to be there to see the result: to face what he is.