US Election

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monkey
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Re: US Election

Post by monkey » Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:48 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:24 pm
So, the White House is closing in on a deal with the Democrats, but McConnell isn't interested as the supreme court nomination is more important.

Methinks it shows he knows Trump is a busted flush and is trying to push his through to get something out of it before they lose.
Maybe, but it also helps to have the court on your side if there's shenanigans with counting votes (real or made up), so it's good for them to get someone in before election day for that reason too.

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Grumble
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Re: US Election

Post by Grumble » Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:34 pm

I know I’m behind on this but, f.ck me he’s lost it. Now that people know for a fact he’s on drugs that affect the mental state will they be quite so forgiving about his rambling about little fishes and the like?
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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sTeamTraen
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Re: US Election

Post by sTeamTraen » Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:06 pm

Trump says "f.ck" on live radio (Rush Limbaugh's show).

Perhaps more significantly, it was a direct threat against Iran.

I hope they manage to get the nuclear codes from him at about 11pm on election night.
Something something hammer something something nail

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Woodchopper
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Re: US Election

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:03 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:06 pm
Trump says "f.ck" on live radio (Rush Limbaugh's show).

Perhaps more significantly, it was a direct threat against Iran.

I hope they manage to get the nuclear codes from him at about 11pm on election night.
People criticize Kissinger but its said that he averted nuclear war numerous times when he intervened to tell the Chiefs of Staff to ignore Nixon's orders issued while he was drunk. I hope there's someone in the current White House who can play a similar role.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:17 am

Little waster wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:07 pm
I think at this point stampng out the fire takes priority, we can discuss what colour to repaint the kitchen once the screaming stops.
Well of course. My point is that they need to go beyond that - not just repainting the kitchen, but fixing the wiring and sorting the gas leak and so on, or else they'll be routinely stamping out conflagrations for evermore. Proactively tackle the systemic issues rather than reacting to the crises they create.
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secret squirrel
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Re: US Election

Post by secret squirrel » Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:48 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:03 am
sTeamTraen wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:06 pm
Trump says "f.ck" on live radio (Rush Limbaugh's show).

Perhaps more significantly, it was a direct threat against Iran.

I hope they manage to get the nuclear codes from him at about 11pm on election night.
People criticize Kissinger but its said that he averted nuclear war numerous times when he intervened to tell the Chiefs of Staff to ignore Nixon's orders issued while he was drunk. I hope there's someone in the current White House who can play a similar role.
Nixon also reportedly talked about dropping a nuclear bomb on Vietnam. From 'the Doomsday Machine' by Daniel Ellsberg (chapter 20):
From an April 25, 1972, tape of Oval Office conversations, we have the following exchange between Richard Nixon and national security advisor Henry Kissinger, regarding possible American responses to an ongoing North Vietnamese offensive:

PRESIDENT: I still think we ought to take the dikes out now. Will that drown people?

HENRY KISSINGER: About two hundred thousand people.

PRESIDENT [reflective, matter-of-fact]: No, no, no … I’d rather use the nuclear bomb. Have you got that, Henry?

KISSINGER [like the president, low-key]: That, I think would just be too much.

PRESIDENT [in a tone of surprise]: The nuclear bomb, does that bother you? I just want you to think big, Henry, for Christsakes.
Kissinger still a c.nt though.

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Woodchopper
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Re: US Election

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:43 am

secret squirrel wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:48 am
Kissinger still a c.nt though.
True.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Sat Oct 10, 2020 1:28 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:17 am
Little waster wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:07 pm
I think at this point stampng out the fire takes priority, we can discuss what colour to repaint the kitchen once the screaming stops.
Well of course. My point is that they need to go beyond that - not just repainting the kitchen, but fixing the wiring and sorting the gas leak and so on, or else they'll be routinely stamping out conflagrations for evermore. Proactively tackle the systemic issues rather than reacting to the crises they create.
I'm trying and failing to find the reporting/opinion article I read that states that Biden's plans cover something like 75% of the Green New Deal, and are much more detailed, with specific plans for implementation within one four year term, where the Green New Deal plan is a decades timescale framework without specific implementation details. And that the difference is similar with healthcare plans. It's not an either/or, but different levels of planning for different timescales.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Sat Oct 10, 2020 8:50 pm

Mike Pence is currently holding a non-socially distanced, non-masked, unshaded rally under a hot sun with over 1500 attendees in the biggest retirement community in the US.

Five people have been carried out after collapsing so far.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Sat Oct 10, 2020 8:51 pm

Also, Trump has won a key endorsement for reelection from the Taliban.

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Little waster
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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:33 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 8:51 pm
Also, Trump has won a key endorsement for reelection from the Taliban.
Well it’s obvious what they are up to.

All of America’s enemies don’t want to Make America Remain Superly-Dooperly Hugely Great Again Still (MARSHGAS) so they are openly and enthusiastically supporting Trump because they secretly support Biden and hope the more they support Trump the more likely Biden is to win and implement his programme to Keep America Losers, Sad.

Trump is on to this which is why he’s openly and enthusiastically supporting America’s enemies in retaliation as part of the 17-dimensional strategic chess game he is playing.

Obviously.
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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:18 am

Trump' Hatch Act violating wannabe-dictator balcony speech had people literally paid to attend, and still only got a few hundred to turn up, despite aiming for thousands.

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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Sun Oct 11, 2020 5:13 pm

Meanwhile within the GOP echochamber Trump is coasting towards re-election*

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... 0-vs-2016/

*if you squint a bit and ignore lots of confounding factors.
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lpm
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Sun Oct 11, 2020 5:53 pm

Interesting charts. Scary at first glance.

But in 2016 "grab 'em by the p.ssy" hit the headlines on 7 October, 32 days before the election.

So comparisons at 23 days out is basically comparing to Trump's worst spell in 2016. He turned it around a fair bit in the next couple of weeks. 23 days out was about the maximum of the pro Clinton bulge in the 2016 polling chart.

Image

Plus of course the 2016 opinion polls ended up being about 2-3 points out, predicting Clinton by +4 or +5, when she actually won by +2.1.
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Grumble
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Re: US Election

Post by Grumble » Sun Oct 11, 2020 6:49 pm

He did actually apologise for the “grab ‘em by the p.ssy” remark, which however mealy-mouthed and insincere it was seemed to get people to come back to him. I don’t think there’s a parallel here.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Grumble
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Re: US Election

Post by Grumble » Sun Oct 11, 2020 6:50 pm

Wasn’t there a massive dump of emails that knocked Clinton back as well? Maybe they’ve got some trumped up scandal about to hit Biden soon.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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lpm
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Sun Oct 11, 2020 7:23 pm

On 7 October 2016 “grab ‘em by the p.ssy" came out.

Within two hours Trump colluded with the Russians, via his cut-outs, and arranged for Wikileaks to release the Podesta emails. It didn't cancel “grab ‘em by the p.ssy” but it did provide points for counter attack that built up over the next couple of weeks.
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Grumble
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Re: US Election

Post by Grumble » Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:11 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 7:23 pm
On 7 October 2016 “grab ‘em by the p.ssy" came out.

Within two hours Trump colluded with the Russians, via his cut-outs, and arranged for Wikileaks to release the Podesta emails. It didn't cancel “grab ‘em by the p.ssy” but it did provide points for counter attack that built up over the next couple of weeks.
Yeah, I thought that was the timeline, I just couldn’t remember the exact sequence.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:59 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 5:53 pm
Interesting charts. Scary at first glance.

But in 2016 "grab 'em by the p.ssy" hit the headlines on 7 October, 32 days before the election.

So comparisons at 23 days out is basically comparing to Trump's worst spell in 2016. He turned it around a fair bit in the next couple of weeks. 23 days out was about the maximum of the pro Clinton bulge in the 2016 polling chart.

Image

Plus of course the 2016 opinion polls ended up being about 2-3 points out, predicting Clinton by +4 or +5, when she actually won by +2.1.
Worth pointing out that the 2016 polls in that period that gave Clinton a big edge gave her a much lower total percentage of the intended vote compared to Biden now, instead the edge came from people switching from Trump to 3rd party, with total 3rd party support across Johnson and Stein into double digits at times, whereas now the polls giving Biden a double digit lead have him at over 50%, and 3rd party at 3% or so.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:51 am

I don't want to tempt fate, but it also strikes me that late swing may be less of a thing, perhaps, in an election with such enormous early turnout.

This tracker is showing some of the key midwest states are already at 20% or so of their total 2016 turnout.

And early voting is opening up in more and more states as time passes, eg on tuesday in Texas.

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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:46 am

Trump campaign uses an interview with Fauci in March out of context and purporting it to be an endorsement of the Trump administration in a campaign ad. Fauci says he's never endorsed a political candidate ever and isn't starting now and that his words have been taken out of context. Trump administration official disagrees and doubles down.

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Grumble
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Re: US Election

Post by Grumble » Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:07 am

There’s a Times headline that the Trump campaign has had to pull adverts in key states because of lack of funds. I can’t find the story elsewhere though.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:55 am

FlammableFlower wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:46 am
Trump campaign uses an interview with Fauci in March out of context and purporting it to be an endorsement of the Trump administration in a campaign ad. Fauci says he's never endorsed a political candidate ever and isn't starting now and that his words have been taken out of context. Trump administration official disagrees and doubles down.
That’s just fractally moronic.
People who use Godwin's Law are worse than Hitler.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:57 am

Grumble wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:07 am
There’s a Times headline that the Trump campaign has had to pull adverts in key states because of lack of funds. I can’t find the story elsewhere though.
I mentioned it earlier, but it doesn't mean he's totally giving up on them. For example, he cancelled all TV ad buys in Ohio earlier, but has $8m earmarked for between now and election day. He has been massively outfundraised, and so have downballot Repubs, with Jaime Harrison raising over $50m in the most recent quarter and going into the last leg of the race v the toadie Lindsey with over $80m, unprecedented numbers for senate races, and mostly raised by small donations.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:58 am

Little waster wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:55 am
FlammableFlower wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:46 am
Trump campaign uses an interview with Fauci in March out of context and purporting it to be an endorsement of the Trump administration in a campaign ad. Fauci says he's never endorsed a political candidate ever and isn't starting now and that his words have been taken out of context. Trump administration official disagrees and doubles down.
That’s just fractally moronic.
"Trump can still win. But on the other hand, if you're deriving a model from history, it implicitly presumes some baseline level of competence from a presidental campaign that may not be compatible with, say, getting into a public spat with Dr. Fauci 3 weeks out from the election." - Nate Silver

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