US Election

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lpm
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:43 am

Yes, Trump is currently just flailing around in quicksand.

But, as you say, Biden is currently at >50% in the polls of the key states, hence it doesn't really matter whether Trump helps himself or damages himself. Something has to change about Biden for the race to be changed. Hard to imagine anything that could do that - except one obvious thing.
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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:45 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:58 am
Little waster wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:55 am
FlammableFlower wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:46 am
Trump campaign uses an interview with Fauci in March out of context and purporting it to be an endorsement of the Trump administration in a campaign ad. Fauci says he's never endorsed a political candidate ever and isn't starting now and that his words have been taken out of context. Trump administration official disagrees and doubles down.
That’s just fractally moronic.
"Trump can still win. But on the other hand, if you're deriving a model from history, it implicitly presumes some baseline level of competence from a presidental campaign that may not be compatible with, say, getting into a public spat with Dr. Fauci 3 weeks out from the election." - Nate Silver
Exactly, the window for any sort of Repug comeback is narrowing by the hour and the early votes are already beginning to lock-in Biden's current advantage.

So what does the Trump team decide to do? Burn another news cycle or two where Trump's incompetence in handling the pandemic, reflex dishonesty and general toddleresque petulance is once again front and centre.

The Independents and Democrats will must have their determination to get rid of the whole shower of shite reinforced while various down-ticket Republicans shred their credibility (and suppress their own votes) even further by spinelessly twisting themselves into logic-pretzels to support the blatantly nonsensical claim that Fauci is (somehow) actually enthusiastically endorsing Trump to the disgust and bemusement of onlookers.
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Re: US Election

Post by bjn » Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:51 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:43 am
Yes, Trump is currently just flailing around in quicksand.

But, as you say, Biden is currently at >50% in the polls of the key states, hence it doesn't really matter whether Trump helps himself or damages himself. Something has to change about Biden for the race to be changed. Hard to imagine anything that could do that - except one obvious thing.
It helps if he damages himself as it will hurt downticket Republicans.

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:59 am

Who would like to read a f.cking stupid article?
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:21 am

And your next number on the 2020 Hurricane of Piss Bingo card, and remember this is for a line:-


"White House infested by vicious raccoons."
People who use Godwin's Law are worse than Hitler.

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Re: US Election

Post by Vertigowooyay » Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:21 am

This may well be an unanswerable question, but given Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million in 2016, what would be the most that Biden could win the popular vote but still lose the electoral college due to the inequities of the system?
Calm yourself Doctor NotTheNineO’ClockNews. We’re men of science. We fear no worldly terrors.

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Re: US Election

Post by Martin_B » Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:29 am

Little waster wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:21 am
And your next number on the 2020 Hurricane of Piss Bingo card, and remember this is for a line:-


"White House infested by vicious raccoons."
Come on guys, we may not like President Trump and his family, but we shouldn't resort to name calling!
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Re: US Election

Post by bmforre » Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:30 am

Little waster wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:21 am
And your next number on the 2020 Hurricane of Piss Bingo card, and remember this is for a line:-

"White House infested by vicious raccoons."
I have a vision of Hector Berlioz in cooperation with Hieronymus Bosch working at an audiovisual collaboration: "Damnation of Trump". Bosch probably wondering how he overlooked the chaos-potential of raccoons for so long?

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Re: US Election

Post by Martin_B » Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:32 am

Vertigowooyay wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:21 am
This may well be an unanswerable question, but given Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million in 2016, what would be the most that Biden could win the popular vote but still lose the electoral college due to the inequities of the system?
Well, Biden could win 100% of the vote in enough states to gain 268 electoral votes, and 49.99% of the vote in states with 270 electoral votes. So theoretically, he could get ~3 times the number of votes and still lose.
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lpm
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:35 am

Vertigowooyay wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:21 am
This may well be an unanswerable question, but given Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million in 2016, what would be the most that Biden could win the popular vote but still lose the electoral college due to the inequities of the system?
Biden's piling up votes in California etc so it will be bigger numbers than Clinton.

The below is from 2 September and will be slightly different now as different states ebb and flow, but it gives the basic picture. Clinton won by +2.1, 48.2% vs 46.1%.

lpm wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:27 pm
From that Silver bloke:

Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:

0-1 points: 6%
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%
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Re: US Election

Post by Vertigowooyay » Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:41 am

Thanks.

So, fingers crossed for anything between 4 and 7 points then...
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:02 pm

No need to limit it to seven points. I'm hoping for 15 or 20 myself.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Re: US Election

Post by JQH » Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:30 pm

Yes. Trump's utter annialation anhialation destruction would be a joy to see.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Re: US Election

Post by monkey » Mon Oct 12, 2020 2:25 pm

Little waster wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:21 am
And your next number on the 2020 Hurricane of Piss Bingo card, and remember this is for a line:-


"White House infested by vicious raccoons."
Raccoons of the Resistance!

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Martin Y
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Re: US Election

Post by Martin Y » Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:15 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:59 am
Who would like to read a f.cking stupid article?
He argues that Trump can win because a chunk of potential Biden voters only like him for not being Trump.

As if forgetting the chunk of Trump voters last time who only liked the fact he wasn't Hillary. A vote's a vote, even if you don't like the guy you voted for.

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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:09 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:15 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:59 am
Who would like to read a f.cking stupid article?
He argues that Trump can win because a chunk of potential Biden voters only like him for not being Trump.

As if forgetting the chunk of Trump voters last time who only liked the fact he wasn't Hillary. A vote's a vote, even if you don't like the guy you voted for.
He also argues that liberal voters are unconsciously biased against a black VP* and won't turn out for Biden no matter how much they despise Trump.

Those would be the same liberal voters who voted for a black President twice running against two (in hindsight) fairly centrists Republicans.


*because we all know what a significant factor the proverbial pale of tepid urine is in US Presidential elections. IIRC the electroral difference between a "good" VP pick and a "bad" one is historically less than 1% nationally and perhaps an extra 5-10% in a key demographic or swing state, which essentially cancels out as the opponent's VP pick does the same elsewhere.
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Re: US Election

Post by JQH » Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:32 pm

Allegedly the California GOP is setting up unofficial ballot drop-off boxes but claiming they are official.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityar ... e69ee51995
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Re: US Election

Post by Grumble » Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:06 pm

JQH wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:32 pm
Allegedly the California GOP is setting up unofficial ballot drop-off boxes but claiming they are official.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityar ... e69ee51995
Doesn’t sound very different to what the Democrats do, to be fair.
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Re: US Election

Post by AMS » Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:11 pm

So political parties can collect batches of votes to submit? The way the US runs elections is a bit weird at times. (The hours of queuing for example, which I'm aware is a voter suppression thing, and also that people register as being supporters of a particular party.)

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:30 am

AMS wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:11 pm
So political parties can collect batches of votes to submit? The way the US runs elections is a bit weird at times. (The hours of queuing for example, which I'm aware is a voter suppression thing, and also that people register as being supporters of a particular party.)
Depends on the state, but generally, no, they can't do that.

Fake ballot drop boxes are almost certainly illegal in CA.

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Re: US Election

Post by monkey » Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:50 am

dyqik wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:30 am
AMS wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:11 pm
So political parties can collect batches of votes to submit? The way the US runs elections is a bit weird at times. (The hours of queuing for example, which I'm aware is a voter suppression thing, and also that people register as being supporters of a particular party.)
Depends on the state, but generally, no, they can't do that.

Fake ballot drop boxes are almost certainly illegal in CA.
And particularly hypocritical, given that ballot harvesting counts as electoral fraud if the Dems are doing it.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:11 am

Martin Y wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:15 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:59 am
Who would like to read a f.cking stupid article?
He argues that Trump can win because a chunk of potential Biden voters only like him for not being Trump.

As if forgetting the chunk of Trump voters last time who only liked the fact he wasn't Hillary. A vote's a vote, even if you don't like the guy you voted for.
And Biden's favourability ratings are good. People like him, not just dislike Trump.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:00 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:11 am
Martin Y wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:15 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:59 am
Who would like to read a f.cking stupid article?
He argues that Trump can win because a chunk of potential Biden voters only like him for not being Trump.

As if forgetting the chunk of Trump voters last time who only liked the fact he wasn't Hillary. A vote's a vote, even if you don't like the guy you voted for.
And Biden's favourability ratings are good. People like him, not just dislike Trump.
Yeah, Nate Silver or Harry Enten (I forget which) pointed out on Twitter that Biden is winning over 2016 Trump voters in the Midwest, not just boosting turnout.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:55 am

Grumble wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:06 pm
JQH wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:32 pm
Allegedly the California GOP is setting up unofficial ballot drop-off boxes but claiming they are official.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityar ... e69ee51995
Doesn’t sound very different to what the Democrats do, to be fair.
Voters nominating someone to transport their ballot is allowed. Setting up fake drop boxes pretending to be the real thing is very much not allowed. Now it is quite possible that these were set up by Repubs who believed Trump's b.llsh.t about voter fraud and want to ensure their votes do get counted - they did target them at Repub voters - however, it is also possible their intent was darker, for example, dumping, then "finding" a handful of dumped ballots to try and undermine faith in the legitimacy of the election. They know they won't win in California, so they might do things like trading a few useless California ballots for a news story to undermine count in more winnable states. The fact there is no record keeping or chain of custody with these fake drop boxes is the difference - because with voters nominating someone to transport their ballot that stunt is impossible, but with fake drop boxes, it is possible.

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Re: US Election

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:54 pm

Just one poll, but still it shows Biden 17 points ahead - 40-57. Almost no people undecided or planning on voting for other candidates.
https://www.opinium.com/resource-center ... 17-points/

I just hope that they actually get to vote and their votes are counted properly.

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