US Election

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lpm
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:35 pm

They're a UK polling outfit, aren't they? 538 don't even give them a rating.
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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:09 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:35 pm
They're a UK polling outfit, aren't they? 538 don't even give them a rating.
That just means they haven't released enough polls in the 21 days before elections in the US.

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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:07 am

Is begging people to like you a good look as a presidential candidate?
Touting his elimination of a federal rule that would have brought more low-income housing to the suburbs, Trump zeroed in on groups whose support he has struggled to retain, including female voters turned off by his rhetoric.

“So I ask you to do me a favour. Suburban women: Will you please like me? Please. Please. I saved your damn neighbourhood, OK?” Trump said. “The other thing: I don’t have that much time to be that nice. You know, I can do it, but I gotta go quickly.”
From here.
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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:01 pm

One limiting factor on the risk of late swing (Biden's up 7pts or more in the states he needs to win) is early voting. So far, 10% of 2016 turnout is already in across the US, and it's greater than 20% in the Great Lakes battlegrounds. However, turnout this time is likely to be higher than last time, with some predicting it could reach 150 or even 160 million, as opposed to 137 million last time.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:14 pm

Gallup has polled that 53% of voters say they are more enthusiastic to vote than last time, vs 11% who are less enthusiastic.

Also Harris County Tx (Houston and area, fairly blue) already has 10% of 2016's vote in, after 2 days of fairly restricted early voting.

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Re: US Election

Post by bmforre » Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:46 pm

Video shows conservatives talking amongst themselves:
As the presidential campaign entered its final stages, a fresh-faced Republican activist named Charlie Kirk stepped into the spotlight at a closed-door gathering of leading conservatives and shared his delight about an impact of the coronavirus pandemic: the disruption of America’s universities. So many campuses had closed, he said, that up to a half-million left-leaning students probably would not vote.

“So, please keep the campuses closed,” Kirk, 26, said in August as the audience cheered, according to video of the event obtained by The Washington Post. “Like, it’s a great thing.”

The gathering in Northern Virginia was organized by the Council for National Policy, a little-known group that has served for decades as a hub for a nationwide network of conservative activists and the donors who support them. Members include Ginni Thomas, wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, and Leonard Leo, an outside adviser to President Trump who has helped raise hundreds of millions of dollars from undisclosed donors to support conservative causes and the nominations of conservative federal judges.
Difficult times now that all and sundry carry compact video cameras disguised as telephones.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:55 pm

bmforre wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:46 pm
Video shows conservatives talking amongst themselves:
As the presidential campaign entered its final stages, a fresh-faced Republican activist named Charlie Kirk stepped into the spotlight at a closed-door gathering of leading conservatives and shared his delight about an impact of the coronavirus pandemic: the disruption of America’s universities. So many campuses had closed, he said, that up to a half-million left-leaning students probably would not vote.

“So, please keep the campuses closed,” Kirk, 26, said in August as the audience cheered, according to video of the event obtained by The Washington Post. “Like, it’s a great thing.”

The gathering in Northern Virginia was organized by the Council for National Policy, a little-known group that has served for decades as a hub for a nationwide network of conservative activists and the donors who support them. Members include Ginni Thomas, wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, and Leonard Leo, an outside adviser to President Trump who has helped raise hundreds of millions of dollars from undisclosed donors to support conservative causes and the nominations of conservative federal judges.
Difficult times now that all and sundry carry compact video cameras disguised as telephones.
That and Charlie Kirk being a notorious imbecile.

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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:46 pm

I like to scan RCP. Well ”like” is the wrong word.

Partly to help insulate myself from groupthink in my little echoey social media bubble but mostly out of morbid fascination with what passes as intelligent commentary through the looking glass.

Today’s offering from the racist conspiracy nuts at the Claremont Institute is a case in point.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/artic ... 44424.html

It is fairly boilerplate for the most part; Trump loves America while Biden is bomb-wielding Communist who hates America and these things are so obvious they simply requiring stating without anything to back them up. In fact simply restating those two counterfactuals forms the bulk of quite a lengthy diatribe.

And that is what makes it noteworthy, the Claremont Institute was the first rightwing think tank, and the deepest, to drink from the Trump KoolAid, even the tw.ts at the AEI kept their distance initially, and here we have no less than the Chairman of the C.I. itself failing to make a single substantive argument in favour of Trump. He doesn’t mention a single policy, a single initiative, a single manifesto promise not even a single quote that could encourage a hypothetical undecided voter or waverer to vote for Trump. Similarly for all the scorn he pours on Biden he doesn’t provide a single scrap of evidence to support his sub-straw man argument. Instead all we have is verbless pro-Trump mood music.

What is even more revealing is if you were an alien or time traveller you would have walked away from that article completely oblivious to the very existence of COVID; neither it nor the economy warrant even a passing mention. And while you would have established that BLM want to destroy the American way of life their motivations would remain a mystery as no attempt is made to examine what could possibly have created them or why they are wrong. They just are.

And that everybody is the best Trump supporters can do to persuade you to vote for Trump.
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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:24 pm

I can't work out whether this needs to go in the Trump Health thread or here... but:

Trump's now retweeted that Obama apparently had "Seal Team 6" killed off (the team that killed Bin Laden) and another retweet that Bin Laden had already been captured, but Obama had the CIA keep him in Iran until he was moved to be eliminated as a "trophy kill".

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Re: US Election

Post by AMS » Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:43 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:24 pm
I can't work out whether this needs to go in the Trump Health thread or here... but:

Trump's now retweeted that Obama apparently had "Seal Team 6" killed off (the team that killed Bin Laden) and another retweet that Bin Laden had already been captured, but Obama had the CIA keep him in Iran until he was moved to be eliminated as a "trophy kill".
These days, I picture Trump alone in his room, raging incoherently and throwing stuff at the walls, while his advisors cower behind the door, drawing straws to decide who gets to show him the latest polling data.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:46 pm

AMS wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:43 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:24 pm
I can't work out whether this needs to go in the Trump Health thread or here... but:

Trump's now retweeted that Obama apparently had "Seal Team 6" killed off (the team that killed Bin Laden) and another retweet that Bin Laden had already been captured, but Obama had the CIA keep him in Iran until he was moved to be eliminated as a "trophy kill".
These days, I picture Trump alone in his room, raging incoherently and throwing stuff at the walls, while his advisors cower behind the door, drawing straws to decide who gets to show him the latest polling data.
So, no change from Feb 2017 then.

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Re: US Election

Post by JQH » Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:51 pm

AMS wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:43 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:24 pm
I can't work out whether this needs to go in the Trump Health thread or here... but:

Trump's now retweeted that Obama apparently had "Seal Team 6" killed off (the team that killed Bin Laden) and another retweet that Bin Laden had already been captured, but Obama had the CIA keep him in Iran until he was moved to be eliminated as a "trophy kill".
These days, I picture Trump alone in his room, raging incoherently and throwing stuff at the walls, while his advisors cower behind the door, drawing straws to decide who gets to show him the latest polling data.
Like a US version of Downfall then?
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Re: US Election

Post by AMS » Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:58 pm

JQH wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:51 pm
AMS wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:43 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:24 pm
I can't work out whether this needs to go in the Trump Health thread or here... but:

Trump's now retweeted that Obama apparently had "Seal Team 6" killed off (the team that killed Bin Laden) and another retweet that Bin Laden had already been captured, but Obama had the CIA keep him in Iran until he was moved to be eliminated as a "trophy kill".
These days, I picture Trump alone in his room, raging incoherently and throwing stuff at the walls, while his advisors cower behind the door, drawing straws to decide who gets to show him the latest polling data.
Like a US version of Downfall then?
Basically yes.

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Re: US Election

Post by JQH » Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:07 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:24 pm
I can't work out whether this needs to go in the Trump Health thread or here... but:

Trump's now retweeted that Obama apparently had "Seal Team 6" killed off (the team that killed Bin Laden) and another retweet that Bin Laden had already been captured, but Obama had the CIA keep him in Iran until he was moved to be eliminated as a "trophy kill".
Mike Adams is running with this

https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-10-13- ... m-six.html

I don't think he addresses the problem of what Obama did with the team who killed Seal Team 6. Won't they now need silencing?
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Re: US Election

Post by bolo » Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:59 am

On a more personal note ...

I just voted. Requested a no-excuse-needed absentee ballot, got it in the mail, filled it out, and dropped it off in the 24-hour drop-off box at my county government center. It felt good.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:26 am

bolo wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:59 am
On a more personal note ...

I just voted. Requested a no-excuse-needed absentee ballot, got it in the mail, filled it out, and dropped it off in the 24-hour drop-off box at my county government center. It felt good.
Early voting starts here on Saturday.

Our Republican governor has become a profile in courage by saying that he may not vote in the presidential election this year.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:38 am

FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:24 pm
I can't work out whether this needs to go in the Trump Health thread or here... but:

Trump's now retweeted that Obama apparently had "Seal Team 6" killed off (the team that killed Bin Laden) and another retweet that Bin Laden had already been captured, but Obama had the CIA keep him in Iran until he was moved to be eliminated as a "trophy kill".
Which lead to pushback from the (Trump supporting) man who purportedly killed Bin Laden. It's worth noting that every member of that mission is still alive; there was a crash that killed some members of Seal Team 6, but it's a platoon sized group, not one small team, and they weren't the people that killed Bin Laden.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:37 am

dyqik wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:26 am
bolo wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:59 am
On a more personal note ...

I just voted. Requested a no-excuse-needed absentee ballot, got it in the mail, filled it out, and dropped it off in the 24-hour drop-off box at my county government center. It felt good.
Early voting starts here on Saturday.

Our Republican governor has become a profile in courage by saying that he may not vote in the presidential election this year.
Was he the one that had to work with a sports team owner to fly in PPE for his state in a private plane in secret via Alaska so the Federal Government wouldn't steal it?

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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:47 am

538s current probabilities for a Democrat clean sweep:-

President: 87%
Senate: 74%
House: 96%

Or cumulatively 61%.

With 10% of the vote already in* numbers look set to further worsen for Trump as the election date approaches.


*IIRC on their podcast 538 admit they’ve so heavily weighted a late break for Trump, hidden Trump voter effects etc. that the actual probabilities based on current polling if the election was “today” and the polls are correct, have Biden above 95% to win the WH which you imagine will be reflected in and locked in by the early votes.
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:29 am

538 now has Georgia turning blue. It's actually 50-50 but Quinnipiac have Biden 7 points in front there, which has closed the gap that Trump had. I'll believe it when I see it though.
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:31 am

I'm not sure what the probability of Biden getting Covid in the next 19 days weeks is. He meets a lot of people, even on his curtailed program, and masks/measures aren't perfect. 1% maybe?

Odds of polls being this far out? Call it 1%?

Not sure why there would be any late swing. Another 1% perhaps.

I suspect 95% is the maximum any model should ever get to. And we are basically there.
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:37 am

The 3 states where Trump's fraud and voter suppression will be successful are Florida, Georgia and Texas.

The Republicans successfully eliminated that 2016 ballot measure in Florida. They successfully rigged the Georgia 2018 governor race. They are suppressing the vote pretty well in Texas.

I always move Florida back to red when I look at those maps.
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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:49 am

lpm wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:37 am
The 3 states where Trump's fraud and voter suppression will be successful are Florida, Georgia and Texas.

The Republicans successfully eliminated that 2016 ballot measure in Florida. They successfully rigged the Georgia 2018 governor race. They are suppressing the vote pretty well in Texas.

I always move Florida back to red when I look at those maps.
In terms of Florida and Georgia voter suppression, it's worth bearing in mind any model that includes turnout history will take it into account, because it is not new. Florida may have mostly eliminated the ballot measure re: voters with felonies, but last election, voters with felonies were completely excluded, and Georgia's long lines are not new. This sh.t happens every time, but it's good that it's getting attention now.

Hopefully, with so much attention on the election in Georgia - enthusiasm is very high now people realise it is a potential swing state - early voting will make a difference. Queue lengths are already down, but plenty of people are still voting, and nearly a million votes cast already.

As for Texas they've suppressed a couple of aspects of the vote - in person absentee ballot drop off and vote by mail for under 65s - but unprecedented amounts of in person early voting are taking place, and it is possible that the adverse publicity from suppressing a very small portion of the vote will drive a backlash bigger than the suppression effect. Texas is still a longshot, but I really hope it comes through, and if not for the presidential race, I'd love it if Hegar could beat Cornyn.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:51 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:37 am
dyqik wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:26 am
bolo wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:59 am
On a more personal note ...

I just voted. Requested a no-excuse-needed absentee ballot, got it in the mail, filled it out, and dropped it off in the 24-hour drop-off box at my county government center. It felt good.
Early voting starts here on Saturday.

Our Republican governor has become a profile in courage by saying that he may not vote in the presidential election this year.
Was he the one that had to work with a sports team owner to fly in PPE for his state in a private plane in secret via Alaska so the Federal Government wouldn't steal it?
Yes, I believe so.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:54 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:49 am
lpm wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:37 am
The 3 states where Trump's fraud and voter suppression will be successful are Florida, Georgia and Texas.

The Republicans successfully eliminated that 2016 ballot measure in Florida. They successfully rigged the Georgia 2018 governor race. They are suppressing the vote pretty well in Texas.

I always move Florida back to red when I look at those maps.
In terms of Florida and Georgia voter suppression, it's worth bearing in mind any model that includes turnout history will take it into account, because it is not new. Florida may have mostly eliminated the ballot measure re: voters with felonies, but last election, voters with felonies were completely excluded, and Georgia's long lines are not new. This sh.t happens every time, but it's good that it's getting attention now.

Hopefully, with so much attention on the election in Georgia - enthusiasm is very high now people realise it is a potential swing state - early voting will make a difference. Queue lengths are already down, but plenty of people are still voting, and nearly a million votes cast already.

As for Texas they've suppressed a couple of aspects of the vote - in person absentee ballot drop off and vote by mail for under 65s - but unprecedented amounts of in person early voting are taking place, and it is possible that the adverse publicity from suppressing a very small portion of the vote will drive a backlash bigger than the suppression effect. Texas is still a longshot, but I really hope it comes through, and if not for the presidential race, I'd love it if Hegar could beat Cornyn.
The Texas measures are still a little looser than previous years.

There has been a spike in white non-college voter registrations in Pennsylvania and similar, which might mean less of a margin than the polls suggest there. But registration isn't turnout.

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