Re: US Election
Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:35 pm
They're a UK polling outfit, aren't they? 538 don't even give them a rating.
From here.Touting his elimination of a federal rule that would have brought more low-income housing to the suburbs, Trump zeroed in on groups whose support he has struggled to retain, including female voters turned off by his rhetoric.
“So I ask you to do me a favour. Suburban women: Will you please like me? Please. Please. I saved your damn neighbourhood, OK?” Trump said. “The other thing: I don’t have that much time to be that nice. You know, I can do it, but I gotta go quickly.”
Difficult times now that all and sundry carry compact video cameras disguised as telephones.As the presidential campaign entered its final stages, a fresh-faced Republican activist named Charlie Kirk stepped into the spotlight at a closed-door gathering of leading conservatives and shared his delight about an impact of the coronavirus pandemic: the disruption of America’s universities. So many campuses had closed, he said, that up to a half-million left-leaning students probably would not vote.
“So, please keep the campuses closed,” Kirk, 26, said in August as the audience cheered, according to video of the event obtained by The Washington Post. “Like, it’s a great thing.”
The gathering in Northern Virginia was organized by the Council for National Policy, a little-known group that has served for decades as a hub for a nationwide network of conservative activists and the donors who support them. Members include Ginni Thomas, wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, and Leonard Leo, an outside adviser to President Trump who has helped raise hundreds of millions of dollars from undisclosed donors to support conservative causes and the nominations of conservative federal judges.
That and Charlie Kirk being a notorious imbecile.bmforre wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:46 pmVideo shows conservatives talking amongst themselves:Difficult times now that all and sundry carry compact video cameras disguised as telephones.As the presidential campaign entered its final stages, a fresh-faced Republican activist named Charlie Kirk stepped into the spotlight at a closed-door gathering of leading conservatives and shared his delight about an impact of the coronavirus pandemic: the disruption of America’s universities. So many campuses had closed, he said, that up to a half-million left-leaning students probably would not vote.
“So, please keep the campuses closed,” Kirk, 26, said in August as the audience cheered, according to video of the event obtained by The Washington Post. “Like, it’s a great thing.”
The gathering in Northern Virginia was organized by the Council for National Policy, a little-known group that has served for decades as a hub for a nationwide network of conservative activists and the donors who support them. Members include Ginni Thomas, wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, and Leonard Leo, an outside adviser to President Trump who has helped raise hundreds of millions of dollars from undisclosed donors to support conservative causes and the nominations of conservative federal judges.
These days, I picture Trump alone in his room, raging incoherently and throwing stuff at the walls, while his advisors cower behind the door, drawing straws to decide who gets to show him the latest polling data.FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:24 pmI can't work out whether this needs to go in the Trump Health thread or here... but:
Trump's now retweeted that Obama apparently had "Seal Team 6" killed off (the team that killed Bin Laden) and another retweet that Bin Laden had already been captured, but Obama had the CIA keep him in Iran until he was moved to be eliminated as a "trophy kill".
So, no change from Feb 2017 then.AMS wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:43 pmThese days, I picture Trump alone in his room, raging incoherently and throwing stuff at the walls, while his advisors cower behind the door, drawing straws to decide who gets to show him the latest polling data.FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:24 pmI can't work out whether this needs to go in the Trump Health thread or here... but:
Trump's now retweeted that Obama apparently had "Seal Team 6" killed off (the team that killed Bin Laden) and another retweet that Bin Laden had already been captured, but Obama had the CIA keep him in Iran until he was moved to be eliminated as a "trophy kill".
Like a US version of Downfall then?AMS wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:43 pmThese days, I picture Trump alone in his room, raging incoherently and throwing stuff at the walls, while his advisors cower behind the door, drawing straws to decide who gets to show him the latest polling data.FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:24 pmI can't work out whether this needs to go in the Trump Health thread or here... but:
Trump's now retweeted that Obama apparently had "Seal Team 6" killed off (the team that killed Bin Laden) and another retweet that Bin Laden had already been captured, but Obama had the CIA keep him in Iran until he was moved to be eliminated as a "trophy kill".
Basically yes.JQH wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:51 pmLike a US version of Downfall then?AMS wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:43 pmThese days, I picture Trump alone in his room, raging incoherently and throwing stuff at the walls, while his advisors cower behind the door, drawing straws to decide who gets to show him the latest polling data.FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:24 pmI can't work out whether this needs to go in the Trump Health thread or here... but:
Trump's now retweeted that Obama apparently had "Seal Team 6" killed off (the team that killed Bin Laden) and another retweet that Bin Laden had already been captured, but Obama had the CIA keep him in Iran until he was moved to be eliminated as a "trophy kill".
Mike Adams is running with thisFlammableFlower wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:24 pmI can't work out whether this needs to go in the Trump Health thread or here... but:
Trump's now retweeted that Obama apparently had "Seal Team 6" killed off (the team that killed Bin Laden) and another retweet that Bin Laden had already been captured, but Obama had the CIA keep him in Iran until he was moved to be eliminated as a "trophy kill".
Early voting starts here on Saturday.
Which lead to pushback from the (Trump supporting) man who purportedly killed Bin Laden. It's worth noting that every member of that mission is still alive; there was a crash that killed some members of Seal Team 6, but it's a platoon sized group, not one small team, and they weren't the people that killed Bin Laden.FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:24 pmI can't work out whether this needs to go in the Trump Health thread or here... but:
Trump's now retweeted that Obama apparently had "Seal Team 6" killed off (the team that killed Bin Laden) and another retweet that Bin Laden had already been captured, but Obama had the CIA keep him in Iran until he was moved to be eliminated as a "trophy kill".
Was he the one that had to work with a sports team owner to fly in PPE for his state in a private plane in secret via Alaska so the Federal Government wouldn't steal it?
In terms of Florida and Georgia voter suppression, it's worth bearing in mind any model that includes turnout history will take it into account, because it is not new. Florida may have mostly eliminated the ballot measure re: voters with felonies, but last election, voters with felonies were completely excluded, and Georgia's long lines are not new. This sh.t happens every time, but it's good that it's getting attention now.lpm wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:37 amThe 3 states where Trump's fraud and voter suppression will be successful are Florida, Georgia and Texas.
The Republicans successfully eliminated that 2016 ballot measure in Florida. They successfully rigged the Georgia 2018 governor race. They are suppressing the vote pretty well in Texas.
I always move Florida back to red when I look at those maps.
Yes, I believe so.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:37 amWas he the one that had to work with a sports team owner to fly in PPE for his state in a private plane in secret via Alaska so the Federal Government wouldn't steal it?
The Texas measures are still a little looser than previous years.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:49 amIn terms of Florida and Georgia voter suppression, it's worth bearing in mind any model that includes turnout history will take it into account, because it is not new. Florida may have mostly eliminated the ballot measure re: voters with felonies, but last election, voters with felonies were completely excluded, and Georgia's long lines are not new. This sh.t happens every time, but it's good that it's getting attention now.lpm wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:37 amThe 3 states where Trump's fraud and voter suppression will be successful are Florida, Georgia and Texas.
The Republicans successfully eliminated that 2016 ballot measure in Florida. They successfully rigged the Georgia 2018 governor race. They are suppressing the vote pretty well in Texas.
I always move Florida back to red when I look at those maps.
Hopefully, with so much attention on the election in Georgia - enthusiasm is very high now people realise it is a potential swing state - early voting will make a difference. Queue lengths are already down, but plenty of people are still voting, and nearly a million votes cast already.
As for Texas they've suppressed a couple of aspects of the vote - in person absentee ballot drop off and vote by mail for under 65s - but unprecedented amounts of in person early voting are taking place, and it is possible that the adverse publicity from suppressing a very small portion of the vote will drive a backlash bigger than the suppression effect. Texas is still a longshot, but I really hope it comes through, and if not for the presidential race, I'd love it if Hegar could beat Cornyn.