This kind of thing can only apply in developed economies that have legal systems not captured by the state. And we've already seen the UK supreme court passing this kind of thing back to the government rather than doing it itself. So I expect only in some small number of countries of very good governance is this kind of thing going to happen.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:28 pmNone. Zero. Presumably governments have already updated their policies on approving such developments, to align with the science they claim to be led by, and the commitments they've made under international law.The IEA confirmed in its Net Zero by 2050 report that there can be no new oil and gas fields approved for development and no new coalmines or mine extensions in a pathway to 1.5°C. Renewable energies will need to expand at an unprecedented pace to become the largest source of energy supply by 2050, while fossil fuel use sees a “huge decline”.
And I don't see that it will have much global effect either. For example, Shell is a large oil producer in Nigeria. The Nigerian kleptocracy feeds off the income from that oil. They are not going to let Shell close it down. Shell might walk away from it, but it will carry on. And those who carry it on will probably make Shell look well-behaved in comparison.
The demonstration effect of the wealthier countries going low carbon is essential. Without it, we have no chance of persuading the rest of the world to be modest in their emissions. Unfortunately fairness between nations is also about the cumulative history of emissions. Britain has the highest cumulative emissions per person-year over the last couple of centuries, because of its early industrial expansion, with places like the US and Germany not far behind - though it's a little while since I last checked and we might have been overtaken recently. Places like China and India are still far behind by this metric.
The take-away is that we do have to demonstrate to the rest of the world what to do. But don't expect them to be too fast in following suit. Carbon emissions are still growing, and likely to continue to grow for quite some time even if the developed world succeeds in making large cuts in emissions. This does have consequences for what it is sensible for the developed world to do as its emissions get lower.