The Debates

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Re: The Debates

Post by headshot » Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:20 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:12 pm
headshot wrote:
Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:31 pm
bolo wrote:
Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:23 pm
On 538's post-debate podcast, someone suggested that Trump's interruptions were a calculated strategy to exacerbate Biden's stutter. (Stutterers apparently find it harder to control when interrupted.)
And it didn’t work.

A better strategy might have been to let Biden speak at length and become gaffe-prone.
Biden has been around forever. He was first elected to Congress in 1832.

His speaking style and his slowness and his gaffes are all familiar to voters. They are part of the public perception of his personality. He was VP for 8 years and people accept his speaking style.

I don't believe him stuttering on a debate would change a thing, except turn people off Trump even more for goating.
I wasn’t really referring to his speaking style, more that he’d be more likely to say something dumb if given the time to speak.

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Re: The Debates

Post by jimbob » Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:30 am

dyqik wrote:
Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:16 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:55 pm
I'm seeing quite a few people suggesting Biden should just cancel the remaining debates after that shitshow, and that seems to be a really bad idea. The debates get an audience, a lot of people who just watch a bit of the news only get soundbites from Trump, the incoherence is edited down to a few words, but if they watch the debates, they are confronted with it. Indeed, one focus group member, undecided prior to last night, described Trump as like "a crackhead". If Biden pulled out, he'd hand the Trump campaign a talking point they could exploit, but by staying in, he just has to keep his cool, he won that, according to snap polls*, and from the way they are whining about the moderator, it seems the Trump campaign think they lost.

*Leads from 7 to 32 points, though I gather the 32 may be due to demographic biases.
Yeah. Anything that reminds soft R and remaining undecided voters how insane Trump is helps Biden.

Remember that there are a whole bunch of (not many, but some) voters who don't pay attention to national politics until the debates start. And there are Republican voters (like my MiL) who are putting up with Trump, but who can be disgusted by him, and maybe at least put off voting on the top of the ticket.

There's also people who absorb the Fox News "Biden is senile" line without thinking about which way to vote. Just turning up to debates and letting Trump rant helps a bit more there.
Yup, I could imagine concetn trolls proposing that, but anyone who actually wants Biden to win?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Debates

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:10 am

jimbob wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:30 am
dyqik wrote:
Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:16 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:55 pm
I'm seeing quite a few people suggesting Biden should just cancel the remaining debates after that shitshow, and that seems to be a really bad idea. The debates get an audience, a lot of people who just watch a bit of the news only get soundbites from Trump, the incoherence is edited down to a few words, but if they watch the debates, they are confronted with it. Indeed, one focus group member, undecided prior to last night, described Trump as like "a crackhead". If Biden pulled out, he'd hand the Trump campaign a talking point they could exploit, but by staying in, he just has to keep his cool, he won that, according to snap polls*, and from the way they are whining about the moderator, it seems the Trump campaign think they lost.

*Leads from 7 to 32 points, though I gather the 32 may be due to demographic biases.
Yeah. Anything that reminds soft R and remaining undecided voters how insane Trump is helps Biden.

Remember that there are a whole bunch of (not many, but some) voters who don't pay attention to national politics until the debates start. And there are Republican voters (like my MiL) who are putting up with Trump, but who can be disgusted by him, and maybe at least put off voting on the top of the ticket.

There's also people who absorb the Fox News "Biden is senile" line without thinking about which way to vote. Just turning up to debates and letting Trump rant helps a bit more there.
Yup, I could imagine concetn trolls proposing that, but anyone who actually wants Biden to win?
I mean, Biden's strategy for most of the summer was to stay out of the way, presumably for this reason. When he did pop up it was pretty gaffe heavy, like the whole "cops should shoot unarmed people in the leg rather than the heart" thing in response to the murder of George Floyd.

I can understand wanting Trump out but not trusting Biden not to f.ck it up, though personally I think pulling out of the debates would be a worse look than 95% of the gaffes he's likely to make. And obviously a Biden gaffe is still generally more electable than Trump doing his very best. It's just that Biden is the "getting shot in the leg not the heart" candidate for a lot of people.

I was quite surprised seeing a breakdown that showed Biden apparently talked for longer than Trump in the last debate. So it seems that he did pretty well to keep his composure despite all the interruptions from Trump, and didn't say anything too stupid. A compromise strategy in future debates could be delivering his message but giving Trump just a little more rope with which to hang himself.
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Re: The Debates

Post by secret squirrel » Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:06 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:10 am
I mean, Biden's strategy for most of the summer was to stay out of the way, presumably for this reason. When he did pop up it was pretty gaffe heavy, like the whole "cops should shoot unarmed people in the leg rather than the heart" thing in response to the murder of George Floyd.

I can understand wanting Trump out but not trusting Biden not to f.ck it up, though personally I think pulling out of the debates would be a worse look than 95% of the gaffes he's likely to make. And obviously a Biden gaffe is still generally more electable than Trump doing his very best. It's just that Biden is the "getting shot in the leg not the heart" candidate for a lot of people.

I was quite surprised seeing a breakdown that showed Biden apparently talked for longer than Trump in the last debate. So it seems that he did pretty well to keep his composure despite all the interruptions from Trump, and didn't say anything too stupid. A compromise strategy in future debates could be delivering his message but giving Trump just a little more rope with which to hang himself.
I doubt the debates would convince many people to switch from Biden to Trump, but I can imagine that a bad performance by Biden might suppress the Democratic turnout a little. I mean, it's hard to view the current spectacle of two elderly, not entirely compos mentis men with questionable sexual ethics battling it out for the position of most powerful person in the world as anything other than an absolute indictment of American democracy. The fact that Trump is obviously worse than Biden doesn't make it any more appealing.

On the other hand, pulling out would probably be worse.

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Re: The Debates

Post by lpm » Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:09 am

Gaffes are already fully priced in. Biden is legendary for his gaffes.

I'd be happy to see the Trump campaign waste a week trumpeting some gaffe. What Trump actually needs is to spend time on traditional politics, e.g. a few days campaigning on a (imaginary) healthcare plan. Of course, he can't do it. He needs infrastructure week but has never come close to achieving infrastructure week.
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Re: The Debates

Post by dyqik » Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:28 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:10 am
jimbob wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:30 am
dyqik wrote:
Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:16 pm


Yeah. Anything that reminds soft R and remaining undecided voters how insane Trump is helps Biden.

Remember that there are a whole bunch of (not many, but some) voters who don't pay attention to national politics until the debates start. And there are Republican voters (like my MiL) who are putting up with Trump, but who can be disgusted by him, and maybe at least put off voting on the top of the ticket.

There's also people who absorb the Fox News "Biden is senile" line without thinking about which way to vote. Just turning up to debates and letting Trump rant helps a bit more there.
Yup, I could imagine concetn trolls proposing that, but anyone who actually wants Biden to win?
I mean, Biden's strategy for most of the summer was to stay out of the way, presumably for this reason. When he did pop up it was pretty gaffe heavy, like the whole "cops should shoot unarmed people in the leg rather than the heart" thing in response to the murder of George Floyd.

I can understand wanting Trump out but not trusting Biden not to f.ck it up, though personally I think pulling out of the debates would be a worse look than 95% of the gaffes he's likely to make. And obviously a Biden gaffe is still generally more electable than Trump doing his very best. It's just that Biden is the "getting shot in the leg not the heart" candidate for a lot of people.
No one even noticed that gaffe here, even in the left of center press.

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Re: The Debates

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:38 pm

I saw it on Twitter and Reddit (links to articles with the video, somewhere) and then on John Oliver, so perhaps not nobody, but it doesn't seem to have got much traction outside of people who were already critical of Biden. IMHO that's a good thing - obviously Trump's position is that he's quite happy for cops, or Proud Boys, or other assorted deplorable c.nts, to shoot people in the heart anyway, so even Biden's gaffe is an improvement. Fun times.

I expect it's partly as lpm says, that Biden is a well-known gaffemobile and people don't mind too much. I expect that the places I follow have a lot of people for whom this is their first or second election, and might still be hoping for a candidate closer to their ideal. If most voters won't be dissuade by gaffes from voting out outright c.ntery then fabulous, and Biden's played the debates very well. Maybe 2020 will produce at least one moment when we can all breathe a massive sigh of relief.
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Re: The Debates

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:46 pm

I was wondering recently why the debate moderator didn't just cut the microphones when they talking over each other / going over time - they do that at academic conferences, game shows, etc.

It turns out they're now considering it, and are planning to change the rules for the next two https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54366618

It's literally like babysitting kids, isn't it?
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Re: The Debates

Post by dyqik » Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:57 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:46 pm
I was wondering recently why the debate moderator didn't just cut the microphones when they talking over each other / going over time - they do that at academic conferences, game shows, etc.

It turns out they're now considering it, and are planning to change the rules for the next two https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54366618

It's literally like babysitting kids, isn't it?
One child, anyway.

I've seen plenty of comments that the next moderator should either be Samuel L. Jackson in his Pulp Fiction role, or a kindergarten teacher.

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Re: The Debates

Post by Little waster » Thu Oct 01, 2020 1:05 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:46 pm
It's literally like babysitting kids, isn't it?
I was reading that they are considering using a kindergarten Sunshine Behaviour Chart so little Donnie would start the debate with his name on Grumpy Rain-Cloud but if he shows positive social behaviours and lets other people have their turn speaking without shouting out or playing up then the Leader of The Free World could be moved up to Smiley Sunshine or even Happy Rainbow and get a juice box and five minutes cuddling with Larry the Snuggly Giraffe under the Fluffy Blankee on the Reward Chair with his choice of Going-Home Story.

I think some people are a little too idealistic to be honest.

ETA: snap
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Re: The Debates

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:08 pm

First post debate poll has Biden 13 pts ahead at 54-41, with 53% saying Biden performed better and just 29% saying that for Trump. It was ugly, messy and disgraceful, but it seems people are realising that was entirely due to Trump's conduct.

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Re: The Debates

Post by Martin_B » Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:34 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:08 pm
First post debate poll has Biden 13 pts ahead at 54-41, with 53% saying Biden performed better and just 29% saying that for Trump. It was ugly, messy and disgraceful, but it seems people are realising that was entirely due to Trump's conduct.
Weren't polls ahead of the debate mainly about 48-41, with 11% undecided?
So the debate managed to gain Trump nothing, except pushing half of the undecided voters to Biden? :lol:
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Re: The Debates

Post by Grumble » Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:38 am

When is the next debate meant to happen? Will Trump still be in quarantine?
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Re: The Debates

Post by bmforre » Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:48 am

Grumble wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:38 am
When is the next debate meant to happen? Will Trump still be in quarantine?
It's Pence up next week against Harris. Week after that Trump is scheduled again.

Wonder what treatment he's getting? Bloodplasma from persons who have recovered?

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Re: The Debates

Post by Grumble » Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:45 am

bmforre wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:48 am
Grumble wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:38 am
When is the next debate meant to happen? Will Trump still be in quarantine?
It's Pence up next week against Harris. Week after that Trump is scheduled again.

Wonder what treatment he's getting? Bloodplasma from persons who have recovered?
Ok, is it a ten day quarantine like here? Assuming he has a mild case he’ll be ok to debate then. If he does have a mild case he’ll be even more unbearable.
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Re: The Debates

Post by Little waster » Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:39 am

Martin_B wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:34 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:08 pm
First post debate poll has Biden 13 pts ahead at 54-41, with 53% saying Biden performed better and just 29% saying that for Trump. It was ugly, messy and disgraceful, but it seems people are realising that was entirely due to Trump's conduct.
Weren't polls ahead of the debate mainly about 48-41, with 11% undecided?
So the debate managed to gain Trump nothing, except pushing half of the undecided voters to Biden? :lol:
It may all become moot with recent developments but 538 polled the same people immediately before and during the debate. It showed minimal movement on a variety of opinions but what movement there was was all in Bidens favour:-

0.2 increase in likelihood to vote Biden, -0.1 for Trump,
60:40 pro-Biden split on policy and performance,
-3% Trump favourability, +5% Biden favourability,


About the only thing that went in Trump’s favour was a 2% increase in base enthusiasm versus a 1% drop in Biden’s although both are still in the 95% range.

Most of the changes were within MOE so it was all probably much of a muchness.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... bate-poll/
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Re: The Debates

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:36 am

First post debate poll in Georgia comes with a 9 point swing to Biden, going from 7 behind to 2 ahead, with him winning on the debate question by 10 points.

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Re: The Debates

Post by dyqik » Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:57 am

Little waster wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:39 am
Martin_B wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:34 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:08 pm
First post debate poll has Biden 13 pts ahead at 54-41, with 53% saying Biden performed better and just 29% saying that for Trump. It was ugly, messy and disgraceful, but it seems people are realising that was entirely due to Trump's conduct.
Weren't polls ahead of the debate mainly about 48-41, with 11% undecided?
So the debate managed to gain Trump nothing, except pushing half of the undecided voters to Biden? :lol:
It may all become moot with recent developments but 538 polled the same people immediately before and during the debate. It showed minimal movement on a variety of opinions but what movement there was was all in Bidens favour:-

0.2 increase in likelihood to vote Biden, -0.1 for Trump,
60:40 pro-Biden split on policy and performance,
-3% Trump favourability, +5% Biden favourability,


About the only thing that went in Trump’s favour was a 2% increase in base enthusiasm versus a 1% drop in Biden’s although both are still in the 95% range.

Most of the changes were within MOE so it was all probably much of a muchness.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... bate-poll/
I can imagine there's a selection bias for people who agree to take a poll multiple times and to watch the debate in the middle.

And it takes time for people to change their minds. Instant polling right after may not catch the effect of the debate and the narrative around it.

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Re: The Debates

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Oct 04, 2020 11:44 am

Jaime Harrison brought his own plexiglass screen for his debate with Lindsey Graham (who, incidentally, chaired a meeting where Mike Lee spoke at length with no mask the day before he tested positive).

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Re: The Debates

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:40 pm

Speaking of that debate, Jaime Harrison's performance v Lindsey Graham was so good it probably violated the 13th amendment.

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Re: The Debates

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:25 pm

VP Debate will have plexiglass screen

Pence's campaign, despite the fact that he really should be in f.cking quarantine after sitting in front of Mike Lee* at the superspreader event, objected to this most basic of safety measures.

*Now tested positive

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Re: The Debates

Post by Little waster » Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:33 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:25 pm
VP Debate will have plexiglass screen

Pence's campaign, despite the fact that he really should be in f.cking quarantine after sitting in front of Mike Lee* at the superspreader event, objected to this most basic of safety measures.

*Now tested positive
That’s probably because he casts no reflection.
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Re: The Debates

Post by lpm » Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:29 am

Who's sad enough to stay up for the Weds night VP debate? 2 a.m. UK time (Thursday morning), 1.5 hours, as before.

It's the 46th President up against the 48th. So a bit of history. The Presidency of Pence is going to be so short* and I've never really seen him in action - didn't bother with 2016 VP debate - so it might be interesting.



* Harrison lasted 31 days, he's the guy who did a 2 hour inauguration speech without a coat and got pneumonia. Pence could be less than that, depends how long it takes Trump to hammer out his pardon deal and resign. Garfield lasted 6 months before being assassinated.
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Re: The Debates

Post by Martin_B » Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:51 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:29 am
Who's sad enough to stay up for the Weds night VP debate? 2 a.m. UK time (Thursday morning), 1.5 hours, as before.

It's the 46th President up against the 48th. So a bit of history. The Presidency of Pence is going to be so short* and I've never really seen him in action - didn't bother with 2016 VP debate - so it might be interesting.



* Harrison lasted 31 days, he's the guy who did a 2 hour inauguration speech without a coat and got pneumonia. Pence could be less than that, depends how long it takes Trump to hammer out his pardon deal and resign. Garfield lasted 6 months before being assassinated.
Will be 9 am over here and I'll be "Working from home", so may watch it. If only to see how Harris performs. She brought up good points in the Democratic debates, but tended not to hammer them home.
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Re: The Debates

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:42 pm

The screens are tiny and will be largely useless, sadly. Might do something for direct droplets, but no use at all on aerosols. Hope Kamala Harris is safe. I really don't like her, but nobody deserves to get COVID from a reckless politician like Pence.

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