US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

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Bird on a Fire
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US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:41 am

So, I've just visited a news website and learned that they're having a election in the USA sometime this week.

In order to enter into the fun-and-games spirit, I thought it would be nice to run a sweepstake. How many Electoral College votes do you think each candidate will get?

Rules:
- You must state a number (preferably a real, positive integer) for at least one candidate. (Unless otherwise specified, it will be assumed that your prediction for the other candidate is the number necessary to add to a total of 538).
- One guess per member. Instances of fraud will be dealt with severely (unless you're supporting Trump).
- The 'official' scores in the case of confusion or controversy will be those votes cast by electors on the first Monday after the second Wednesday of December.

Guidelines
If you want to make a guess based on states rather than EC votes per se, online tools such as https://www.270towin.com/ will allow conversion of your guess into the format required by this sweepstake.

Showing your working is encouraged, but not compulsory.

The winner will be the poster whose guess is closest for each candidate. In the case of a tie, the winner will be adjudicated by SCROTUS (Scrutineers of the United States: bolo, dyqik, monkey, and six conservatives to be selected and confirmed by Mitch McConnell).

Prizes
Congruent with the village fête aesthetic I'm aiming for, I'm hoping that participants will also offer prizes when they post their guesses. I will draw a scene from the election selected by the winner with pen-and-ink, and colour it with pencils.
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

#ShowYourStripes

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:45 am

My guess is Biden 269 - Trump 269.

Reasoning:
1) Consolation betting - though I can't bring myself to bet on a Trump victory. I'm hopeful that the polling will be roughly accurate (partly because I like what it says, but also because there's obviously advantages to being able to poll people accurately), or even that they'll underestimate Biden's chances by overcorrecting perceived issues from 2016. But, 2020 could f.ck us yet in all sorts of peculiar ways, and it could be closer than any of us want.
2) 69, dudes!
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

#ShowYourStripes

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bolo
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by bolo » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:18 am

395 Biden, based on counting everything that 538 currently colors even slightly blue, plus Texas because I have a lot of friends there and it would make them very happy, but not Ohio because I don't want to tempt fate more than typing 395 already did.

My prize for the winner: a PDF copy of the only bill ever introduced in the U.S. Congress that includes the word "c.nt".

EACLucifer
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:14 am

Biden/Harris 351 - Clinton states + PA, WI, MI, GA, AZ, FL, NC, ME2, NE2.

There's a bunch of states where almost any combination is plausible, though - FL, TX, GA, IA, OH, ME2, and while NZ and AZ lean Biden, they could certainly go the other way. The margins between 290 and 413 for Biden are quite small.

Bewildered
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Bewildered » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:04 am

Biden 410 based on a poor attempt to judge the peak on some plot from 538 (it’s a pretty crap plot tbh) and one I may even be misunderstanding.

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lpm
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by lpm » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:05 am

413-125. Biden gets the lot.
I'll miss him after he's fled to Riyadh

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lpm
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by lpm » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:11 am

Bewildered wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:04 am
Biden 410 based on a poor attempt to judge the peak on some plot from 538 (it’s a pretty crap plot tbh) and one I may even be misunderstanding.
There's no likely 410 so you've lost already. You'd need Biden to lose 3 in Delaware or somewhere like that. Or lose Iowa's 6 but win 3 in Montana or Alaska.

You obviously haven't spent the last few months playing with interactive maps. Weirdo.
I'll miss him after he's fled to Riyadh

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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by tenchboy » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:35 am

bolo wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:18 am
395 Biden, based on counting everything that 538 currently colors even slightly blue, plus Texas because I have a lot of friends there and it would make them very happy, but not Ohio because I don't want to tempt fate more than typing 395 already did.

My prize for the winner: a PDF copy of the only bill ever introduced in the U.S. Congress that includes the word "c.nt".
A wild guess but something to do with ropes and splicing or the stacking of barrels?

secret squirrel
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by secret squirrel » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:59 am

I fitted a cubic model to the data and it turns out Biden is going to get -57 votes.

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:20 am

All the good guesses have gone. I'm going to guess 389 - Biden will win Texas, Florida and Georgia but miss out on Ohio and Iowa.

My prize: a dutch oven.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Sciolus
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Sciolus » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:32 am

Trump 538.

That's what the incumbent President, 40% of the population, 80% of the gun-owning population, and most of the Supreme Court will believe anyway, so what anyone else says is irrelevant.

My prize: a pack of cyanide pills.

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malbui
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by malbui » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:35 am

Trump 858 because let’s face it he’s going to make Liberian elections look like models of democratic rigour.
And when it starts to slide
Let it go
Leave it behind

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shpalman
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by shpalman » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:12 am

Using theoretical physics I can predict that the ratio between Trump's vote and Biden's vote will be a dimensionless number of order one, and when the actual result comes out I'll use the data to pretend I predicted it.

My prize will be a large hardon collider and a complete lack of any evidence for supersymmetry.
molto tricky

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dyqik
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by dyqik » Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:06 pm

375 Biden, with no result in Pennsylvania, leading to their EC votes being lost.

Prize: "care package" of your "favorite" American shippable foodstuffs, such as Hershey's, "cheese" in a squeeze bottle, Fluff™, powdered Ranch dressing, and maybe some nice things as well.

If a Brit wins, you'll going to need the practice on American cuisine for the post-Brexit trade deal diet.

EACLucifer
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:11 pm

Dammit, forgot to include a prize. Belatedly, I will/won't crush you beneath the wheels of The Apocalypse Machine according to preference.

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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by dyqik » Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:16 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:20 am
My prize: a dutch oven.
Do you mean the cooking vessel here?

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:41 pm

Good question.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

monkey
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by monkey » Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:53 pm

Biden 274, Trump 264. Because I think it's going to be close and 538 tells me its a possible number.

For a prize I will get the winner a pint, but because they are hard to put in the post it will have to drunk by proxy, i.e. by me.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:37 pm

Exciting stuff! A good spread of guesses, and some faaaaaaabulous prizes!

Roll up roll up and place your guesses, don't be shy now.
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

#ShowYourStripes

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:43 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:11 am
Bewildered wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:04 am
Biden 410 based on a poor attempt to judge the peak on some plot from 538 (it’s a pretty crap plot tbh) and one I may even be misunderstanding.
There's no likely 410 so you've lost already. You'd need Biden to lose 3 in Delaware or somewhere like that. Or lose Iowa's 6 but win 3 in Montana or Alaska.

You obviously haven't spent the last few months playing with interactive maps. Weirdo.
Not necessarily - Bewildered only has to be closer than anybody else.

For instance, Biden could end up on 308 (by taking FL) in which case Bewildered would beat you and go home with all these faaaaabulous prizes.
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

#ShowYourStripes

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tenchboy
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by tenchboy » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:55 pm

I've never really understood how these things work so I'll go for 3.
My prize is a can of worms.

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bolo
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by bolo » Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:03 pm

tenchboy wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:35 am
bolo wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:18 am
395 Biden, based on counting everything that 538 currently colors even slightly blue, plus Texas because I have a lot of friends there and it would make them very happy, but not Ohio because I don't want to tempt fate more than typing 395 already did.

My prize for the winner: a PDF copy of the only bill ever introduced in the U.S. Congress that includes the word "c.nt".
A wild guess but something to do with ropes and splicing or the stacking of barrels?
Nope. And as a bonus it also includes the word "a..hole" and the phrase "mother f.cker".

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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by JQH » Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:06 pm

Clean sweep by Biden & Harris.

Prize is Charles Messenger's "The Century of Warfare"
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

Fintan O'Toole

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Gfamily
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Gfamily » Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:29 pm

bolo wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:03 pm
tenchboy wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:35 am
bolo wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:18 am
395 Biden, based on counting everything that 538 currently colors even slightly blue, plus Texas because I have a lot of friends there and it would make them very happy, but not Ohio because I don't want to tempt fate more than typing 395 already did.

My prize for the winner: a PDF copy of the only bill ever introduced in the U.S. Congress that includes the word "c.nt".
A wild guess but something to do with ropes and splicing or the stacking of barrels?
Nope. And as a bonus it also includes the word "a..hole" and the phrase "mother f.cker".
It's the one some a..eh.le came up with to impose a f.cking swear ban on the twatting broadcasters.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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bolo
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by bolo » Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:06 pm

I couldn't possibly comment on whether former Congressman Doug Ose is or was an a..eh.le.

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