US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
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- Clardic Fug
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
I'll go for 368 + whatever Biden gets in Nebraska
(Biden getting Ohio & Georgia, but not Iowa)
(Biden getting Ohio & Georgia, but not Iowa)
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Can we have a side flutter on whether any states will send two lots of competing voters to the Electoral College? Apparently that's a thing that can happen. (See this Reuters article wot I just found.)
I call dibs on Michigan.
I call dibs on Michigan.
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
I'll go with a nil-nil draw with both teams being relegated and the reanimated corpse of Ronald Reagan becoming POTUS instead
Prize: a charcoal sketch of my left foot.
Prize: a charcoal sketch of my left foot.
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- Bird on a Fire
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
You can, but you'll have to get your own prizes.raven wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:34 pmCan we have a side flutter on whether any states will send two lots of competing voters to the Electoral College? Apparently that's a thing that can happen. (See this Reuters article wot I just found.)
I call dibs on Michigan.
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- Snowbonk
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Amazingly, my prediction has been proved wrong already. I forgot to add a prize at the time, but it's an unsolicited photograph of Dick Cheney, direct to your mobile phone.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
10 minutes ago I saw that William Hill's odds were against a Trump win so I decided to place a £100 bet on him as a consolation just in case. Never done an online bet before, so I spent several minutes registering with Hill's, and then the odds changed to 6-4 on. But I'd deposited the £100 so I thought I'd continue anyway (I'll get £166.67 if he wins).
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Sorry to say, but I think you'd get far better odds right now - and betting markets are still underestimating Biden.
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- Brightonian
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Yes, Trump's now 5-4 on*, returning £180 on £100. Wish I'd thought of putting a bet on yesterday. Wonder if betting markets are getting skewed by people like me, betting on a Trump win as insurance.
I sort of did a similar thing with the Brexit referendum, transferring a lot of GBP into EUR.
* Oh, it's shifted as I was typing: now 11-10 on for each candidate.
I sort of did a similar thing with the Brexit referendum, transferring a lot of GBP into EUR.
* Oh, it's shifted as I was typing: now 11-10 on for each candidate.
- EACLucifer
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
I think we have a winner, unless North Carolina flips on late votes.
Crushed or Not Crushed beneath the wheels of The Apocalypse Machine? Logistics of the former could be difficult as The Apocalypse Machine doesn't have very big wheels.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
If it stays as it is now, Biden will end up on 306, so it seems like you won your own thread by accident.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:43 pmNot necessarily - Bewildered only has to be closer than anybody else.lpm wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:11 amThere's no likely 410 so you've lost already. You'd need Biden to lose 3 in Delaware or somewhere like that. Or lose Iowa's 6 but win 3 in Montana or Alaska.Bewildered wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:04 amBiden 410 based on a poor attempt to judge the peak on some plot from 538 (it’s a pretty crap plot tbh) and one I may even be misunderstanding.
You obviously haven't spent the last few months playing with interactive maps. Weirdo.
For instance, Biden could end up on 308 (by taking FL) in which case Bewildered would beat you and go home with all these faaaaabulous prizes.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
While being crushed seems like a new and interesting experience, I think I will opt for the not being crushed. But chill your boots, I am happy to wait till the final result.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:39 pmI think we have a winner, unless North Carolina flips on late votes.
Crushed or Not Crushed beneath the wheels of The Apocalypse Machine? Logistics of the former could be difficult as The Apocalypse Machine doesn't have very big wheels.
This does raise an interesting question: If I drink a pint by proxy for myself, is that the same as me drinking two pints?
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
I properly f.cked up the maths in that post, didn't I? Apparently mixing up the 300s and 400s. How embarrassing.shpalman wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:55 pmIf it stays as it is now, Biden will end up on 306, so it seems like you won your own thread by accident.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:43 pmNot necessarily - Bewildered only has to be closer than anybody else.
For instance, Biden could end up on 308 (by taking FL) in which case Bewildered would beat you and go home with all these faaaaabulous prizes.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Well, it depends on what you mean by you. You-you drinks one pint, and you-prime drinks one pint. I'm not sure whether it's metaphysically appropriate to add the two pints together without dividing by the two yous. Otherwise it all gets a bit Banach–Tarski and we could multiply pints by drinking them, and then where would we be? Pissed, I expect.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
I hope we can find a way of me-me having a drink or two and me-prime getting the hangover.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:40 amWell, it depends on what you mean by you. You-you drinks one pint, and you-prime drinks one pint. I'm not sure whether it's metaphysically appropriate to add the two pints together without dividing by the two yous. Otherwise it all gets a bit Banach–Tarski and we could multiply pints by drinking them, and then where would we be? Pissed, I expect.
In the meantime I think we should test this empiricaly. I'll start off by drinking a pint and seeing how drunk I get. Then I'll drink another one in proxy for me. Then I'll drink two in the same time it took me to drink the first one to see if I get the same drunk as the proxy test. I like this plan.
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
I think we need some complex beers here.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:40 amWell, it depends on what you mean by you. You-you drinks one pint, and you-prime drinks one pint. I'm not sure whether it's metaphysically appropriate to add the two pints together without dividing by the two yous. Otherwise it all gets a bit Banach–Tarski and we could multiply pints by drinking them, and then where would we be? Pissed, I expect.
But not Octonion beers.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
I've never tried any onion beers, but eight certainly sounds like too many.
There's a brewery on the Isle of Wight that makes garlic beer. Odd sorts over there.
There's a brewery on the Isle of Wight that makes garlic beer. Odd sorts over there.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
i once drank a garlic beer at a beer festival. N=1 and all that but it was absolutely disgusting. And I like both garlic and beer on their own.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:29 amI've never tried any onion beers, but eight certainly sounds like too many.
There's a brewery on the Isle of Wight that makes garlic beer. Odd sorts over there.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Thanks for the datum! I normally consider myself quite an adventurous beer enthusiast, but I've got to say when I saw that stuff in the shop I basically just thought "eurgh" and "why even bother making that, it's never going to work" and then moved on.malbui wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:08 ami once drank a garlic beer at a beer festival. N=1 and all that but it was absolutely disgusting. And I like both garlic and beer on their own.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:29 amI've never tried any onion beers, but eight certainly sounds like too many.
There's a brewery on the Isle of Wight that makes garlic beer. Odd sorts over there.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Probably worth you avoiding the Isle of Wight when this is on then...
Some people call me strange.
I prefer unconventional.
But I'm willing to compromise and accept eccentric.
I prefer unconventional.
But I'm willing to compromise and accept eccentric.
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
You really don't want to try 'Crustacean Elation' beer. I did, one sip ...
Time for a big fat one.
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Oyster stout is an old English style that some New England breweries have brought back occasionally. That's not bad at all.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Interesting. I'm sure I tried an oyster stout or two (probably when I lived in CT), but didn't actually realised they contain oysters. It must be pretty subtle, because the smell of seafood usually turns my stomach.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
I note that the current AP result of 290-214 was exactly in line with my predictions, as is the NYT result of 279-214.shpalman wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:12 amUsing theoretical physics I can predict that the ratio between Trump's vote and Biden's vote will be a dimensionless number of order one, and when the actual result comes out I'll use the data to pretend I predicted it.
My prize will be a large hardon collider and a complete lack of any evidence for supersymmetry.
I predict a final result of 306-232.
I also note that this result does not contradict Einstein's theory of General Relativity.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Objection! There are many dimensions to this result.shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:45 pmI note that the current AP result of 290-214 was exactly in line with my predictions, as is the NYT result of 279-214.shpalman wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:12 amUsing theoretical physics I can predict that the ratio between Trump's vote and Biden's vote will be a dimensionless number of order one, and when the actual result comes out I'll use the data to pretend I predicted it.
My prize will be a large hardon collider and a complete lack of any evidence for supersymmetry.
I predict a final result of 306-232.
I also note that this result does not contradict Einstein's theory of General Relativity.