US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

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insignificant
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by insignificant » Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:53 pm

I'll go for 368 + whatever Biden gets in Nebraska

(Biden getting Ohio & Georgia, but not Iowa)

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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by raven » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:34 pm

Can we have a side flutter on whether any states will send two lots of competing voters to the Electoral College? Apparently that's a thing that can happen. (See this Reuters article wot I just found.)

I call dibs on Michigan.

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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Turdly » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:46 pm

I'll go with a nil-nil draw with both teams being relegated and the reanimated corpse of Ronald Reagan becoming POTUS instead

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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:06 pm

raven wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:34 pm
Can we have a side flutter on whether any states will send two lots of competing voters to the Electoral College? Apparently that's a thing that can happen. (See this Reuters article wot I just found.)

I call dibs on Michigan.
You can, but you'll have to get your own prizes.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by secret squirrel » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:24 am

Amazingly, my prediction has been proved wrong already. I forgot to add a prize at the time, but it's an unsolicited photograph of Dick Cheney, direct to your mobile phone.

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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Brightonian » Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:50 am

10 minutes ago I saw that William Hill's odds were against a Trump win so I decided to place a £100 bet on him as a consolation just in case. Never done an online bet before, so I spent several minutes registering with Hill's, and then the odds changed to 6-4 on. But I'd deposited the £100 so I thought I'd continue anyway (I'll get £166.67 if he wins).

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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by lpm » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:03 am

Sorry to say, but I think you'd get far better odds right now - and betting markets are still underestimating Biden.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Brightonian » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:21 am

Yes, Trump's now 5-4 on*, returning £180 on £100. Wish I'd thought of putting a bet on yesterday. Wonder if betting markets are getting skewed by people like me, betting on a Trump win as insurance.

I sort of did a similar thing with the Brexit referendum, transferring a lot of GBP into EUR.

* Oh, it's shifted as I was typing: now 11-10 on for each candidate.

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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:39 pm

monkey wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:53 pm
Biden 274, Trump 264. Because I think it's going to be close and 538 tells me its a possible number.

For a prize I will get the winner a pint, but because they are hard to put in the post it will have to drunk by proxy, i.e. by me.
I think we have a winner, unless North Carolina flips on late votes.

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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by bolo » Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:51 pm


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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by shpalman » Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:55 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:43 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:11 am
Bewildered wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:04 am
Biden 410 based on a poor attempt to judge the peak on some plot from 538 (it’s a pretty crap plot tbh) and one I may even be misunderstanding.
There's no likely 410 so you've lost already. You'd need Biden to lose 3 in Delaware or somewhere like that. Or lose Iowa's 6 but win 3 in Montana or Alaska.

You obviously haven't spent the last few months playing with interactive maps. Weirdo.
Not necessarily - Bewildered only has to be closer than anybody else.

For instance, Biden could end up on 308 (by taking FL) in which case Bewildered would beat you and go home with all these faaaaabulous prizes.
If it stays as it is now, Biden will end up on 306, so it seems like you won your own thread by accident.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by monkey » Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:03 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:39 pm
monkey wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:53 pm
Biden 274, Trump 264. Because I think it's going to be close and 538 tells me its a possible number.

For a prize I will get the winner a pint, but because they are hard to put in the post it will have to drunk by proxy, i.e. by me.
I think we have a winner, unless North Carolina flips on late votes.

Crushed or Not Crushed beneath the wheels of The Apocalypse Machine? Logistics of the former could be difficult as The Apocalypse Machine doesn't have very big wheels.
While being crushed seems like a new and interesting experience, I think I will opt for the not being crushed. But chill your boots, I am happy to wait till the final result.

This does raise an interesting question: If I drink a pint by proxy for myself, is that the same as me drinking two pints?

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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:38 am

shpalman wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:55 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:43 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:11 am

There's no likely 410 so you've lost already. You'd need Biden to lose 3 in Delaware or somewhere like that. Or lose Iowa's 6 but win 3 in Montana or Alaska.

You obviously haven't spent the last few months playing with interactive maps. Weirdo.
Not necessarily - Bewildered only has to be closer than anybody else.

For instance, Biden could end up on 308 (by taking FL) in which case Bewildered would beat you and go home with all these faaaaabulous prizes.
If it stays as it is now, Biden will end up on 306, so it seems like you won your own thread by accident.
I properly f.cked up the maths in that post, didn't I? Apparently mixing up the 300s and 400s. How embarrassing.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:40 am

monkey wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:03 pm
This does raise an interesting question: If I drink a pint by proxy for myself, is that the same as me drinking two pints?
Well, it depends on what you mean by you. You-you drinks one pint, and you-prime drinks one pint. I'm not sure whether it's metaphysically appropriate to add the two pints together without dividing by the two yous. Otherwise it all gets a bit Banach–Tarski and we could multiply pints by drinking them, and then where would we be? Pissed, I expect.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by monkey » Sat Nov 07, 2020 1:26 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:40 am
monkey wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:03 pm
This does raise an interesting question: If I drink a pint by proxy for myself, is that the same as me drinking two pints?
Well, it depends on what you mean by you. You-you drinks one pint, and you-prime drinks one pint. I'm not sure whether it's metaphysically appropriate to add the two pints together without dividing by the two yous. Otherwise it all gets a bit Banach–Tarski and we could multiply pints by drinking them, and then where would we be? Pissed, I expect.
I hope we can find a way of me-me having a drink or two and me-prime getting the hangover.

In the meantime I think we should test this empiricaly. I'll start off by drinking a pint and seeing how drunk I get. Then I'll drink another one in proxy for me. Then I'll drink two in the same time it took me to drink the first one to see if I get the same drunk as the proxy test. I like this plan.

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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by dyqik » Sat Nov 07, 2020 2:28 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:40 am
monkey wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:03 pm
This does raise an interesting question: If I drink a pint by proxy for myself, is that the same as me drinking two pints?
Well, it depends on what you mean by you. You-you drinks one pint, and you-prime drinks one pint. I'm not sure whether it's metaphysically appropriate to add the two pints together without dividing by the two yous. Otherwise it all gets a bit Banach–Tarski and we could multiply pints by drinking them, and then where would we be? Pissed, I expect.
I think we need some complex beers here.

But not Octonion beers.

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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:29 am

I've never tried any onion beers, but eight certainly sounds like too many.

There's a brewery on the Isle of Wight that makes garlic beer. Odd sorts over there.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by malbui » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:08 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:29 am
I've never tried any onion beers, but eight certainly sounds like too many.

There's a brewery on the Isle of Wight that makes garlic beer. Odd sorts over there.
i once drank a garlic beer at a beer festival. N=1 and all that but it was absolutely disgusting. And I like both garlic and beer on their own.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:28 am

malbui wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:08 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:29 am
I've never tried any onion beers, but eight certainly sounds like too many.

There's a brewery on the Isle of Wight that makes garlic beer. Odd sorts over there.
i once drank a garlic beer at a beer festival. N=1 and all that but it was absolutely disgusting. And I like both garlic and beer on their own.
Thanks for the datum! I normally consider myself quite an adventurous beer enthusiast, but I've got to say when I saw that stuff in the shop I basically just thought "eurgh" and "why even bother making that, it's never going to work" and then moved on.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Aitch » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:53 am

Probably worth you avoiding the Isle of Wight when this is on then...
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Opti » Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:05 pm

You really don't want to try 'Crustacean Elation' beer. I did, one sip ...
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by dyqik » Sat Nov 07, 2020 1:58 pm

Oyster stout is an old English style that some New England breweries have brought back occasionally. That's not bad at all.

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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Nov 07, 2020 2:08 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 1:58 pm
Oyster stout is an old English style that some New England breweries have brought back occasionally. That's not bad at all.
Interesting. I'm sure I tried an oyster stout or two (probably when I lived in CT), but didn't actually realised they contain oysters. It must be pretty subtle, because the smell of seafood usually turns my stomach.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:45 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:12 am
Using theoretical physics I can predict that the ratio between Trump's vote and Biden's vote will be a dimensionless number of order one, and when the actual result comes out I'll use the data to pretend I predicted it.

My prize will be a large hardon collider and a complete lack of any evidence for supersymmetry.
I note that the current AP result of 290-214 was exactly in line with my predictions, as is the NYT result of 279-214.

I predict a final result of 306-232.

I also note that this result does not contradict Einstein's theory of General Relativity.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by dyqik » Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:51 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:45 pm
shpalman wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:12 am
Using theoretical physics I can predict that the ratio between Trump's vote and Biden's vote will be a dimensionless number of order one, and when the actual result comes out I'll use the data to pretend I predicted it.

My prize will be a large hardon collider and a complete lack of any evidence for supersymmetry.
I note that the current AP result of 290-214 was exactly in line with my predictions, as is the NYT result of 279-214.

I predict a final result of 306-232.

I also note that this result does not contradict Einstein's theory of General Relativity.
Objection! There are many dimensions to this result.

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