Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:53 pm
I'll go for 368 + whatever Biden gets in Nebraska
(Biden getting Ohio & Georgia, but not Iowa)
(Biden getting Ohio & Georgia, but not Iowa)
Open to critical enquiry
https://scrutable.science/
You can, but you'll have to get your own prizes.raven wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:34 pmCan we have a side flutter on whether any states will send two lots of competing voters to the Electoral College? Apparently that's a thing that can happen. (See this Reuters article wot I just found.)
I call dibs on Michigan.
I think we have a winner, unless North Carolina flips on late votes.
If it stays as it is now, Biden will end up on 306, so it seems like you won your own thread by accident.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:43 pmNot necessarily - Bewildered only has to be closer than anybody else.lpm wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:11 amThere's no likely 410 so you've lost already. You'd need Biden to lose 3 in Delaware or somewhere like that. Or lose Iowa's 6 but win 3 in Montana or Alaska.Bewildered wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:04 amBiden 410 based on a poor attempt to judge the peak on some plot from 538 (it’s a pretty crap plot tbh) and one I may even be misunderstanding.
You obviously haven't spent the last few months playing with interactive maps. Weirdo.
For instance, Biden could end up on 308 (by taking FL) in which case Bewildered would beat you and go home with all these faaaaabulous prizes.
While being crushed seems like a new and interesting experience, I think I will opt for the not being crushed. But chill your boots, I am happy to wait till the final result.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:39 pmI think we have a winner, unless North Carolina flips on late votes.
Crushed or Not Crushed beneath the wheels of The Apocalypse Machine? Logistics of the former could be difficult as The Apocalypse Machine doesn't have very big wheels.
I properly f.cked up the maths in that post, didn't I? Apparently mixing up the 300s and 400s. How embarrassing.shpalman wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:55 pmIf it stays as it is now, Biden will end up on 306, so it seems like you won your own thread by accident.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:43 pmNot necessarily - Bewildered only has to be closer than anybody else.
For instance, Biden could end up on 308 (by taking FL) in which case Bewildered would beat you and go home with all these faaaaabulous prizes.
Well, it depends on what you mean by you. You-you drinks one pint, and you-prime drinks one pint. I'm not sure whether it's metaphysically appropriate to add the two pints together without dividing by the two yous. Otherwise it all gets a bit Banach–Tarski and we could multiply pints by drinking them, and then where would we be? Pissed, I expect.
I hope we can find a way of me-me having a drink or two and me-prime getting the hangover.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:40 amWell, it depends on what you mean by you. You-you drinks one pint, and you-prime drinks one pint. I'm not sure whether it's metaphysically appropriate to add the two pints together without dividing by the two yous. Otherwise it all gets a bit Banach–Tarski and we could multiply pints by drinking them, and then where would we be? Pissed, I expect.
I think we need some complex beers here.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:40 amWell, it depends on what you mean by you. You-you drinks one pint, and you-prime drinks one pint. I'm not sure whether it's metaphysically appropriate to add the two pints together without dividing by the two yous. Otherwise it all gets a bit Banach–Tarski and we could multiply pints by drinking them, and then where would we be? Pissed, I expect.
i once drank a garlic beer at a beer festival. N=1 and all that but it was absolutely disgusting. And I like both garlic and beer on their own.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:29 amI've never tried any onion beers, but eight certainly sounds like too many.
There's a brewery on the Isle of Wight that makes garlic beer. Odd sorts over there.
Thanks for the datum! I normally consider myself quite an adventurous beer enthusiast, but I've got to say when I saw that stuff in the shop I basically just thought "eurgh" and "why even bother making that, it's never going to work" and then moved on.malbui wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:08 ami once drank a garlic beer at a beer festival. N=1 and all that but it was absolutely disgusting. And I like both garlic and beer on their own.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:29 amI've never tried any onion beers, but eight certainly sounds like too many.
There's a brewery on the Isle of Wight that makes garlic beer. Odd sorts over there.
Interesting. I'm sure I tried an oyster stout or two (probably when I lived in CT), but didn't actually realised they contain oysters. It must be pretty subtle, because the smell of seafood usually turns my stomach.
I note that the current AP result of 290-214 was exactly in line with my predictions, as is the NYT result of 279-214.shpalman wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:12 amUsing theoretical physics I can predict that the ratio between Trump's vote and Biden's vote will be a dimensionless number of order one, and when the actual result comes out I'll use the data to pretend I predicted it.
My prize will be a large hardon collider and a complete lack of any evidence for supersymmetry.
Objection! There are many dimensions to this result.shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:45 pmI note that the current AP result of 290-214 was exactly in line with my predictions, as is the NYT result of 279-214.shpalman wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:12 amUsing theoretical physics I can predict that the ratio between Trump's vote and Biden's vote will be a dimensionless number of order one, and when the actual result comes out I'll use the data to pretend I predicted it.
My prize will be a large hardon collider and a complete lack of any evidence for supersymmetry.
I predict a final result of 306-232.
I also note that this result does not contradict Einstein's theory of General Relativity.