US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
EACLucifer
Catbabel
Posts: 937
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: Behind you

Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:55 pm

monkey wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:03 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:39 pm
monkey wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:53 pm
Biden 274, Trump 264. Because I think it's going to be close and 538 tells me its a possible number.

For a prize I will get the winner a pint, but because they are hard to put in the post it will have to drunk by proxy, i.e. by me.
I think we have a winner, unless North Carolina flips on late votes.

Crushed or Not Crushed beneath the wheels of The Apocalypse Machine? Logistics of the former could be difficult as The Apocalypse Machine doesn't have very big wheels.
While being crushed seems like a new and interesting experience, I think I will opt for the not being crushed. But chill your boots, I am happy to wait till the final result.

This does raise an interesting question: If I drink a pint by proxy for myself, is that the same as me drinking two pints?
That's certainly less of a logistical challenge. In other news, I need a better picture of The Apocalypse Machine, as this does not come close to capturing its ramshackle nature.
Apocalypse Machine.jpg
Apocalypse Machine.jpg (60.44 KiB) Viewed 235 times

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Light of Blast
Posts: 4289
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: nadir of brie

Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:45 pm

Well, provisional results are in so I think we can be reasonably confident in the results, probably.

I am delighted not to have won this thread, though it was looking close. Congratulations to monkey, who wins our Scrutable Sweepstake hamper.
Screenshot_2020-11-13_19-39-32.png
Screenshot_2020-11-13_19-39-32.png (28.53 KiB) Viewed 184 times
Not the first time I've lost a bet to a monkey, and I'm sure it won't be the last.

Nevertheless, and time will tell, but perhaps the real winner of this election is the young newcomer Joe Biden.
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

#ShowYourStripes

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Light of Blast
Posts: 4289
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: nadir of brie

Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:45 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:41 am
I will draw a scene from the election selected by the winner with pen-and-ink, and colour it with pencils.
Monkey - you may now select your favourite election scene to be drawn.
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

#ShowYourStripes

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Light of Blast
Posts: 4289
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: nadir of brie

Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:03 pm

Inspired by the COVID thread, I've plotted the results of this sweepstake (deleting the silly guesses that didn't sum to 538):
graph.png
graph.png (29.2 KiB) Viewed 172 times
The plotted curve has an excellent fit to the data, and we can clearly see that the inflection point of the parabola is at 286. So, even though Biden underperformed compared to professional polls, the Scrutable sweepstake actually succeeded in predicting the results of the election quite well.

If we delete both of the "clean sweep" guess, which were perhaps also a bit tongue-in-cheek, and only include the well intentioned guesses (and mine), we get a different curve with the minimum at 294.5 - even closer!
graph2_electric_bidenloo.png
graph2_electric_bidenloo.png (26.57 KiB) Viewed 172 times
So I think we should all give ourselves a big pat on the back for calling this election so well as a collective - not that I wish to detract from monkey's victory.
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

#ShowYourStripes

User avatar
dyqik
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2752
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:19 pm
Location: Masshole
Contact:

Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by dyqik » Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:18 pm

Don't we have to wait for the ballots to be actually certified, electors selected, balloted, their votes tabulated and counted in Congress? ;)

geejaytee
Stargoon
Posts: 104
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:32 pm
Location: Colchester

Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by geejaytee » Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:35 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:03 pm
Inspired by the COVID thread, I've plotted the results of this sweepstake (deleting the silly guesses that didn't sum to 538):
graph.png

The plotted curve has an excellent fit to the data, and we can clearly see that the inflection point of the parabola is at 286. So, even though Biden underperformed compared to professional polls, the Scrutable sweepstake actually succeeded in predicting the results of the election quite well.

If we delete both of the "clean sweep" guess, which were perhaps also a bit tongue-in-cheek, and only include the well intentioned guesses (and mine), we get a different curve with the minimum at 294.5 - even closer!
graph2_electric_bidenloo.png

So I think we should all give ourselves a big pat on the back for calling this election so well as a collective - not that I wish to detract from monkey's victory.
Are you trying to wind up maths pedants like me? The score is the mean absolute deviation, so wouldn't fit a parabola, more a couple of straight lines of slope ±1 meeting at the point (306,0).

monkey
Fuzzable
Posts: 244
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:10 pm

Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by monkey » Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:44 pm

Waaayy!!! I am the best at guessing.

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:45 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:41 am
I will draw a scene from the election selected by the winner with pen-and-ink, and colour it with pencils.
Monkey - you may now select your favourite election scene to be drawn.
I'd like to see a picture of Boris Johnson in a fridge, pleasethankyou.

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Light of Blast
Posts: 4289
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: nadir of brie

Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:45 pm

dyqik wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:18 pm
Don't we have to wait for the ballots to be actually certified, electors selected, balloted, their votes tabulated and counted in Congress? ;)
To be honest, I was partly waiting for big networks to call everywhere and to see what happened with legal challenges and the like. So far it's looking like Trump's gonna go out not with a bang but a whimper, which is an extremely pleasant surprise.

If there's any deviation, monkey will just have to give back his fabulous prizes. I expect I'd be next in line, though, as any movement is likely to be partial and Trumpwards. I have no idea how I'd get a second-hand metaphysical pint from him, and don't want the surprise to be ruined.
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

#ShowYourStripes

User avatar
shpalman
After Pie
Posts: 2213
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by shpalman » Sat Nov 14, 2020 12:11 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:03 pm
Inspired by the COVID thread, I've plotted the results of this sweepstake (deleting the silly guesses that didn't sum to 538):
graph.png

The plotted curve has an excellent fit to the data, and we can clearly see that the inflection point of the parabola is at 286. So, even though Biden underperformed compared to professional polls, the Scrutable sweepstake actually succeeded in predicting the results of the election quite well.

If we delete both of the "clean sweep" guess, which were perhaps also a bit tongue-in-cheek, and only include the well intentioned guesses (and mine), we get a different curve with the minimum at 294.5 - even closer!
graph2_electric_bidenloo.png

So I think we should all give ourselves a big pat on the back for calling this election so well as a collective - not that I wish to detract from monkey's victory.
I was tongue-in-cheek about pretending to predict the outcome already knowing the outcome, but this is what you are doing.
molto tricky

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Light of Blast
Posts: 4289
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: nadir of brie

Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Nov 14, 2020 1:18 pm

The maths is obviously beyond reproach. I've got graphs! And look how many decimal places there are in my equation.
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

#ShowYourStripes

insignificant
Sindis Poop
Posts: 76
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:14 pm
Location: Coventry

Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by insignificant » Sat Nov 14, 2020 1:25 pm

My prediction was pretty much lifted from The Economist

In retrospect being optimistic about Ohio and Florida was daft (huge polling error with Florida), but North Carolina was fairly close

User avatar
malbui
Clardic Fug
Posts: 177
Joined: Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:25 am

Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by malbui » Sat Nov 14, 2020 1:26 pm

Until Biden is actually sworn in I reckon my prediction is still in with a chance.
And when it starts to slide
Let it go
Leave it behind

secret squirrel
Fuzzable
Posts: 374
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:42 pm

Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by secret squirrel » Sat Nov 14, 2020 1:29 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Nov 14, 2020 1:18 pm
The maths is obviously beyond reproach. I've got graphs! And look how many decimal places there are in my equation.
Hard to argue with an r^2 like that, but you should probably calculate a p-value too, just so we can be sure it's on the level.

EACLucifer
Catbabel
Posts: 937
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: Behind you

Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Nov 14, 2020 2:11 pm

insignificant wrote:
Sat Nov 14, 2020 1:25 pm
My prediction was pretty much lifted from The Economist

In retrospect being optimistic about Ohio and Florida was daft (huge polling error with Florida), but North Carolina was fairly close
Had things gone a bit differently, Dems would have been kicking themselves over North Carolina. It's one of the only states where the Trump campaign actually outcampaigned the Biden campaign, and a bit more effort there, perhaps pulled from Florida to the more winnable North Carolina, and Biden might have taken the state, and maybe even Cunningham the senate seat. It's one of the only obvious missed opportunities.

Post Reply