That's certainly less of a logistical challenge. In other news, I need a better picture of The Apocalypse Machine, as this does not come close to capturing its ramshackle nature.monkey wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:03 pmWhile being crushed seems like a new and interesting experience, I think I will opt for the not being crushed. But chill your boots, I am happy to wait till the final result.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:39 pmI think we have a winner, unless North Carolina flips on late votes.
Crushed or Not Crushed beneath the wheels of The Apocalypse Machine? Logistics of the former could be difficult as The Apocalypse Machine doesn't have very big wheels.
This does raise an interesting question: If I drink a pint by proxy for myself, is that the same as me drinking two pints?
US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Well, provisional results are in so I think we can be reasonably confident in the results, probably.
I am delighted not to have won this thread, though it was looking close. Congratulations to monkey, who wins our Scrutable Sweepstake hamper.
Not the first time I've lost a bet to a monkey, and I'm sure it won't be the last.
Nevertheless, and time will tell, but perhaps the real winner of this election is the young newcomer Joe Biden.
I am delighted not to have won this thread, though it was looking close. Congratulations to monkey, who wins our Scrutable Sweepstake hamper.
Not the first time I've lost a bet to a monkey, and I'm sure it won't be the last.
Nevertheless, and time will tell, but perhaps the real winner of this election is the young newcomer Joe Biden.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Monkey - you may now select your favourite election scene to be drawn.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:41 amI will draw a scene from the election selected by the winner with pen-and-ink, and colour it with pencils.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Inspired by the COVID thread, I've plotted the results of this sweepstake (deleting the silly guesses that didn't sum to 538):
If we delete both of the "clean sweep" guess, which were perhaps also a bit tongue-in-cheek, and only include the well intentioned guesses (and mine), we get a different curve with the minimum at 294.5 - even closer! So I think we should all give ourselves a big pat on the back for calling this election so well as a collective - not that I wish to detract from monkey's victory.
The plotted curve has an excellent fit to the data, and we can clearly see that the inflection point of the parabola is at 286. So, even though Biden underperformed compared to professional polls, the Scrutable sweepstake actually succeeded in predicting the results of the election quite well.If we delete both of the "clean sweep" guess, which were perhaps also a bit tongue-in-cheek, and only include the well intentioned guesses (and mine), we get a different curve with the minimum at 294.5 - even closer! So I think we should all give ourselves a big pat on the back for calling this election so well as a collective - not that I wish to detract from monkey's victory.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Don't we have to wait for the ballots to be actually certified, electors selected, balloted, their votes tabulated and counted in Congress?
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Are you trying to wind up maths pedants like me? The score is the mean absolute deviation, so wouldn't fit a parabola, more a couple of straight lines of slope ±1 meeting at the point (306,0).Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:03 pmInspired by the COVID thread, I've plotted the results of this sweepstake (deleting the silly guesses that didn't sum to 538):
graph.png
The plotted curve has an excellent fit to the data, and we can clearly see that the inflection point of the parabola is at 286. So, even though Biden underperformed compared to professional polls, the Scrutable sweepstake actually succeeded in predicting the results of the election quite well.
If we delete both of the "clean sweep" guess, which were perhaps also a bit tongue-in-cheek, and only include the well intentioned guesses (and mine), we get a different curve with the minimum at 294.5 - even closer!
graph2_electric_bidenloo.png
So I think we should all give ourselves a big pat on the back for calling this election so well as a collective - not that I wish to detract from monkey's victory.
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Waaayy!!! I am the best at guessing.
I'd like to see a picture of Boris Johnson in a fridge, pleasethankyou.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:45 pmMonkey - you may now select your favourite election scene to be drawn.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:41 amI will draw a scene from the election selected by the winner with pen-and-ink, and colour it with pencils.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
To be honest, I was partly waiting for big networks to call everywhere and to see what happened with legal challenges and the like. So far it's looking like Trump's gonna go out not with a bang but a whimper, which is an extremely pleasant surprise.
If there's any deviation, monkey will just have to give back his fabulous prizes. I expect I'd be next in line, though, as any movement is likely to be partial and Trumpwards. I have no idea how I'd get a second-hand metaphysical pint from him, and don't want the surprise to be ruined.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
I was tongue-in-cheek about pretending to predict the outcome already knowing the outcome, but this is what you are doing.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:03 pmInspired by the COVID thread, I've plotted the results of this sweepstake (deleting the silly guesses that didn't sum to 538):
graph.png
The plotted curve has an excellent fit to the data, and we can clearly see that the inflection point of the parabola is at 286. So, even though Biden underperformed compared to professional polls, the Scrutable sweepstake actually succeeded in predicting the results of the election quite well.
If we delete both of the "clean sweep" guess, which were perhaps also a bit tongue-in-cheek, and only include the well intentioned guesses (and mine), we get a different curve with the minimum at 294.5 - even closer!
graph2_electric_bidenloo.png
So I think we should all give ourselves a big pat on the back for calling this election so well as a collective - not that I wish to detract from monkey's victory.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
The maths is obviously beyond reproach. I've got graphs! And look how many decimal places there are in my equation.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
My prediction was pretty much lifted from The Economist
In retrospect being optimistic about Ohio and Florida was daft (huge polling error with Florida), but North Carolina was fairly close
In retrospect being optimistic about Ohio and Florida was daft (huge polling error with Florida), but North Carolina was fairly close
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Until Biden is actually sworn in I reckon my prediction is still in with a chance.
And when it starts to slide
Let it go
Leave it behind
Let it go
Leave it behind
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Hard to argue with an r^2 like that, but you should probably calculate a p-value too, just so we can be sure it's on the level.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sat Nov 14, 2020 1:18 pmThe maths is obviously beyond reproach. I've got graphs! And look how many decimal places there are in my equation.
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Had things gone a bit differently, Dems would have been kicking themselves over North Carolina. It's one of the only states where the Trump campaign actually outcampaigned the Biden campaign, and a bit more effort there, perhaps pulled from Florida to the more winnable North Carolina, and Biden might have taken the state, and maybe even Cunningham the senate seat. It's one of the only obvious missed opportunities.insignificant wrote: ↑Sat Nov 14, 2020 1:25 pmMy prediction was pretty much lifted from The Economist
In retrospect being optimistic about Ohio and Florida was daft (huge polling error with Florida), but North Carolina was fairly close