Bad Graphs

[shpalman]

https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/ ... ytiZw&s=19

20230519_200221-01.jpeg (94.69 KiB) Viewed 260 times

[IvanV]

https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/ ... ytiZw&s=19

20230519_200221-01.jpeg

I saw a discussion of this graph somewhere else. It is supposed to be supporting an anti-immigration right-wing cause. They were trying to indicate that many migrants are getting benefits. And hence the need to have a proper hard right-winger in power rather than the present not-quite-hard-enough hard right wingers who have come into power.

What is ironic is - as Tim Bale signposts in a subsequent tweet- that it doesn't show that at all, whether you read the axes correctly or not. Benefits claimants are actually coming down as migration is recovering post-Covid.

The government was recently claiming it would get net immigration down to about 100,000. Though perhaps they can say that they meant per month.

[jaap]

https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/ ... ytiZw&s=19

20230519_200221-01.jpeg

I saw a discussion of this graph somewhere else. It is supposed to be supporting an anti-immigration right-wing cause.

I just like the fact that the red line is not even a graph/function, seeing as it goes backwards for a bit.

[monkey]

https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/ ... ytiZw&s=19

20230519_200221-01.jpeg

I saw a discussion of this graph somewhere else. It is supposed to be supporting an anti-immigration right-wing cause.

I just like the fact that the red line is not even a graph/function, seeing as it goes backwards for a bit.

Graphs and functions can do that. It's just a bit rare when the x-axis is time.

[bjn]

Dr Who is f.cking with the figures.

[Opti]

https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/ ... ytiZw&s=19

20230519_200221-01.jpeg

It's taken from a piece in The Sun written by the Right Wing Fascist nutter of the moment, Douglas Murray. The piece talks about loadsa immigrants encouraging feckless 'indigenous' Brits to be benefit dossers.
It's a classic sh.t graph.

[IvanV]

https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/ ... ytiZw&s=19

20230519_200221-01.jpeg

It's taken from a piece in The Sun written by the Right Wing Fascist nutter of the moment, Douglas Murray. The piece talks about loadsa immigrants encouraging feckless 'indigenous' Brits to be benefit dossers.
It's a classic sh.t graph.

A lot of the benefit recipients included in the graph are people who are in work but on low wages. So that could be relieved if their wages went up substantially: that would be the only way of relieving it short of cutting their entitlement to benefits. Part of the upward pressure on wages at the moment is coming from the fact that we have substantially cut EU immigrants who might be willing to work for the wages offered. And probably benefit claimants have been coming down a bit because unemployment is low and wages have been responding to that upward pressure to some degree. But our right-wing government appears to advocate resistance to wage pressure, because of its inflationary effect.

I've just looked through the headlines of over 200 of the most recent articles on Douglas Murray's website, and only one article is about wages and incomes. Low incomes is not something he generally mentions. That one article advocates not giving in to strikers demanding higher wages, because it is not "fair" to the rest of us whose incomes are being eroded by inflation higher than wage increases. So presumably he isn't an advocate of reducing this "problem" of having many benefit recipients through higher wages for the lower paid.

[Lew Dolby]

But our right-wing government appears to advocate resistance to wage pressure, because of its inflationary effect.

which, in itself is b-sh.t. I keep challenging tory loadmoths round here to tell me which prices will go up is state school teachers or NHS nurses get a pay rise - and to explain the mechanism they think is in play.

[IvanV]

But our right-wing government appears to advocate resistance to wage pressure, because of its inflationary effect.

which, in itself is b-sh.t. I keep challenging tory loadmoths round here to tell me which prices will go up is state school teachers or NHS nurses get a pay rise - and to explain the mechanism they think is in play.

If they knew their classical economics, they might mention that one of the three classical causes of inflation in the Keynsian model is demand-pull inflation, which can be caused by increased demand from people with more money to spend, while supply fails to increase in proportion.

Though, in the specific case you mention of public sector wage increases, if that is financed by public spending cuts elsewhere, then the effect on inflation might be broadly neutral, because of an offsetting demand reduction from those other public spending cuts. And also one should take into account their propensity to spend. Recently saving in the consumer sector has been growing, and not all additional income has been spent.

I'm entertained by your suggestion of loudmoths. A lovely idea for a fantasy novel.

[EACLucifer]

But our right-wing government appears to advocate resistance to wage pressure, because of its inflationary effect.

which, in itself is b-sh.t. I keep challenging tory loadmoths round here to tell me which prices will go up is state school teachers or NHS nurses get a pay rise - and to explain the mechanism they think is in play.

If they knew their classical economics, they might mention that one of the three classical causes of inflation in the Keynsian model is demand-pull inflation, which can be caused by increased demand from people with more money to spend, while supply fails to increase in proportion.

Though, in the specific case you mention of public sector wage increases, if that is financed by public spending cuts elsewhere, then the effect on inflation might be broadly neutral, because of an offsetting demand reduction from those other public spending cuts. And also one should take into account their propensity to spend. Recently saving in the consumer sector has been growing, and not all additional income has been spent.

I'm entertained by your suggestion of loudmoths. A lovely idea for a fantasy novel.

Presumably a loadmoth would look a little like a hawkmoth?