Scrutable

The media is highlighting that 1/3 of the UK population has had 1st dose (22.4m / 66.8m).

A better thing to highlight is the UK is now effectively 50% through 1st doses of its adult vaccination program.

(53m adults, 85% uptake requires around 45m doses, done 22.4m).

Today is the second day of reported deaths being less than 100. Obviously that’s the weekend artificially lowering the figures to some extent, but it still feels like a big moment to me, it’s the first time since October after all. Hopefully we’ll get the 7-day average figure below 100 very soon. Five months of awfulness hopefully won’t extend to six, and vaccination will keep it down.

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:10 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:03 pm

https://www.nhs.uk/book-a-coronavirus-v ... nhs-number

Now open for anyone 56 and over.

Now open for anyone 55 and over.

No idea whether they are going to be stepping down a year every couple of days. The official grouping is 55-59, so that's all of them now invited and it was a bit odd to make 55s wait.

Large Covid outbreak in vaccinated care home residents. Doesn't look great. If they are about to receive their second vaccine, then presumably they had the Pfizer.

OffTheRock wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:27 pm

Large Covid outbreak in vaccinated care home residents. Doesn't look great. If they are about to receive their second vaccine, then presumably they had the Pfizer.

Worrying. Obviously it may take a while before the full consequences of that outbreak is known. But the article reports 1 death among 33 positive cases.

If it doesn't get any worse than that - then that could be consistent with a substantial reduction in mortality due to vaccination. In an unvaccinated elderly care home population with many comorbidities you'd expect an IFR much higher than 3%.

Agree. and fingers crossed it won't get worse. It does seem to have spread incredibly fast though which doesn't look good for preventing transmission. At least, not nearly 12 weeks after receiving the first vaccine.

OffTheRock wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 09, 2021 11:23 pm

Agree. and fingers crossed it won't get worse. It does seem to have spread incredibly fast though which doesn't look good for preventing transmission. At least, not nearly 12 weeks after receiving the first vaccine.

Indeed. Perhaps clutching at straws but here's the most optimistic scenario I can think of...

Reports suggest the cases were pretty much all confirmed over a couple of days - so maybe 1-2 unvaccinated people (e.g. staff, new residents) infected a large number of residents around the same time? And maybe then there wasn't much onward transmission among these vaccinated residents? There's a lot of routine testing in care homes - so many wouldn't need to be symptomatic to be confirmed as positive cases.

bob sterman wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:16 am

OffTheRock wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 09, 2021 11:23 pm

Agree. and fingers crossed it won't get worse. It does seem to have spread incredibly fast though which doesn't look good for preventing transmission. At least, not nearly 12 weeks after receiving the first vaccine.

Indeed. Perhaps clutching at straws but here's the most optimistic scenario I can think of...

Reports suggest the cases were pretty much all confirmed over a couple of days - so maybe 1-2 unvaccinated people (e.g. staff, new residents) infected a large number of residents around the same time? And maybe then there wasn't much onward transmission among these vaccinated residents? There's a lot of routine testing in care homes - so many wouldn't need to be symptomatic to be confirmed as positive cases.

Given PHE are involved in managing it I'd assume that some sort of mass testing went on to try and find all the cases, which would explain the short period of time the cases were confirmed over. Seems the police and CQC have launched a joint investigation so it might not be as simple as first thought.

lpm wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:49 pm

I expect Group 9 to be invited for week commencing 15 March and mostly complete by 21 March, then straight on to 40-49 well before Easter.

I think that might be slightly optimistic.

MrRaven (56) booked his on Monday.* He had to faff around with the booking site cos his first two attempts said there was no slot available for a second jab (what? how could there be appointments now but not matching ones 12 wks later? who knows...) But eventually he got it sorted & is booked for the 25th March.

So they won't have group 8 finished here till probably the end of March.

He was early doing it too -- thanks to people here saying you could book without waiting for a letter. (Although he got his letter the next morning anyway, so not that early.)

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:54 pm

Group 8 is relatively small. It implies Group 9, 50-55, will be invited forward one week from today.

This will happen tonight, bet you a zillion pounds. Any 50-54s around? If so look out at:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:14 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:54 pm

Group 8 is relatively small. It implies Group 9, 50-55, will be invited forward one week from today.

This will happen tonight, bet you a zillion pounds. Any 50-54s around? If so look out at:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/

That was my logic too, but group 8 is 2.4 million and last 7 days vaccs is just under 2 mill so maybe tomorrow night ?

raven wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 12, 2021 12:11 am

lpm wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:49 pm

I expect Group 9 to be invited for week commencing 15 March and mostly complete by 21 March, then straight on to 40-49 well before Easter.

I think that might be slightly optimistic.

MrRaven (56) booked his on Monday.* He had to faff around with the booking site cos his first two attempts said there was no slot available for a second jab (what? how could there be appointments now but not matching ones 12 wks later? who knows...) But eventually he got it sorted & is booked for the 25th March.

So they won't have group 8 finished here till probably the end of March.

He was early doing it too -- thanks to people here saying you could book without waiting for a letter. (Although he got his letter the next morning anyway, so not that early.)

Belay that last post. GPs rang yesterday; he's going there this afternoon to get jabbed - so looks like lpm wasn't being over-optimistic at all. (Although I did joke that the GPs have decided he's in group6 for his gout....)

And yay to 50+ getting called up soon - thats me

bob sterman wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:59 pm

OffTheRock wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:27 pm

Large Covid outbreak in vaccinated care home residents. Doesn't look great. If they are about to receive their second vaccine, then presumably they had the Pfizer.

Worrying. Obviously it may take a while before the full consequences of that outbreak is known. But the article reports 1 death among 33 positive cases.

If it doesn't get any worse than that - then that could be consistent with a substantial reduction in mortality due to vaccination. In an unvaccinated elderly care home population with many comorbidities you'd expect an IFR much higher than 3%.

There have been two further outbreaks reported in Devonshire care homes where most staff and residents had been vaccinated. The originally mentioned one in Sidmouth is apparently being investigated by police and other agencies.

I guess that, at some point, we will reach a situation where most Covid cases occur in people who have been vaccinated - not because the vaccines don't work, but because 10% of the vaccinated population is a bigger number than 100% of the unvaccinated - particularly among those groups most susceptible to the disease. Some delicacy will be required in order to report those cases without fuelling resistance to vaccination.

raven wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:58 am

And yay to 50+ getting called up soon - thats me

I'm 50, got a text on Weds. If I'd been quicker I'd be having my jab today, but have an appt for next Saturday. Mr Bagpuss is being jabbed the day before.

Some friends in Birmingham (late 40s, no underlying conditions) have been invited and booked appts.

snoozeofreason wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:18 am

bob sterman wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:59 pm

OffTheRock wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:27 pm

Large Covid outbreak in vaccinated care home residents. Doesn't look great. If they are about to receive their second vaccine, then presumably they had the Pfizer.

Worrying. Obviously it may take a while before the full consequences of that outbreak is known. But the article reports 1 death among 33 positive cases.

If it doesn't get any worse than that - then that could be consistent with a substantial reduction in mortality due to vaccination. In an unvaccinated elderly care home population with many comorbidities you'd expect an IFR much higher than 3%.

There have been two further outbreaks reported in Devonshire care homes where most staff and residents had been vaccinated. The originally mentioned one in Sidmouth is apparently being investigated by police and other agencies.

I guess that, at some point, we will reach a situation where most Covid cases occur in people who have been vaccinated - not because the vaccines don't work, but because 10% of the vaccinated population is a bigger number than 100% of the unvaccinated - particularly among those groups most susceptible to the disease. Some delicacy will be required in order to report those cases without fuelling resistance to vaccination.

That point will be at 91% vaccinated, so we won't have to worry about vaccine hesitancy at that point 'cos herd immunity will pretty much have been reached by then

Except herd immunity won't exist in various pockets around the country. 91% average will conceal that it's 99% in a lot of places but 67% in a few.

And the places that will have low vaccine uptake will have high Covid vulnerability: poor, ethnic minorities, insecure work, lack of access to health service.

Herd immunity is a bit of a dud concept for grotesquely unequal countries like the UK. Vaccine hesitancy is going to make this an endemic disease of the poor.

Do we have enough information on whether vaccines prevent transmission? we know vaccines reduce the risk of serious illness and death, but afaik we don't really know whether they stop people infecting others.

I don't think Pfizer swabbed participants, and AZ (who did) only made a claim about reducing asymptomatic cases and therefore asymptomatic transmission.

jdc wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:51 pm

Do we have enough information on whether vaccines prevent transmission? we know vaccines reduce the risk of serious illness and death, but afaik we don't really know whether they stop people infecting others.

I don't think Pfizer swabbed participants, and AZ (who did) only made a claim about reducing asymptomatic cases and therefore asymptomatic transmission.

Most of the speculation about vaccines reducing transmission is extrapolation or an educated guess. In one of Moderna trials they did swab participants.
Again it refers to asymptomatic cases.

In the Moderna trial, among persons who had received a first dose, the number of asymptomatic persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 at their second-dose appointment was approximately two-thirds lower among vaccines than among placebo recipients (0.1% and 0.3%, respectively)

Those numbers are so low I am not sure they have any validity.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... eople.html

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:14 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:54 pm

Group 8 is relatively small. It implies Group 9, 50-55, will be invited forward one week from today.

This will happen tonight, bet you a zillion pounds. Any 50-54s around? If so look out at:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/

You owe me a zillion pounds, it still hasn’t happened.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:24 pm

jdc wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:51 pm

Do we have enough information on whether vaccines prevent transmission? we know vaccines reduce the risk of serious illness and death, but afaik we don't really know whether they stop people infecting others.

I don't think Pfizer swabbed participants, and AZ (who did) only made a claim about reducing asymptomatic cases and therefore asymptomatic transmission.

Most of the speculation about vaccines reducing transmission is extrapolation or an educated guess. In one of Moderna trials they did swab participants.
Again it refers to asymptomatic cases.

In the Moderna trial, among persons who had received a first dose, the number of asymptomatic persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 at their second-dose appointment was approximately two-thirds lower among vaccines than among placebo recipients (0.1% and 0.3%, respectively)

Those numbers are so low I am not sure they have any validity.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... eople.html

I found a Cell article that mentioned the 67% reduction for Moderna and gave a figure of 50% reduction for AZ (but didn't mention how low the numbers were). It did say that there was research into reduction of transmission going on in Brazil, Nottingham, and Israel but presumably we'll have to wait a while for those results.

We might also have to wait a while for a chunk of the population to be vaccinated - I think they've only just started trials on vaccination of under-18s and I saw a govt quote saying they hoped to vaccinate children by the end of the year.

Then there's the issue of variants...

snoozeofreason wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:18 am

There have been two further outbreaks reported in Devonshire care homes where most staff and residents had been vaccinated. The originally mentioned one in Sidmouth is apparently being investigated by police and other agencies.

Yes - it seems there is a "complex police investigation" underway...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-56372847

Can't really even begin to wonder what that might mean.

bob sterman wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:43 pm

snoozeofreason wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:18 am

There have been two further outbreaks reported in Devonshire care homes where most staff and residents had been vaccinated. The originally mentioned one in Sidmouth is apparently being investigated by police and other agencies.

Yes - it seems there is a "complex police investigation" underway...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-56372847

Can't really even begin to wonder what that might mean.

warning! anecdote: A friend was telling me her mother's care home was under super lockdown after an out break among unvaccinated staff! How can that be?

So, MrRaven- group 8 as far as we know- got his jab yesterday at the GPs who according to their website are supposedly still working on group 6. But then I read this:

Scientists question NHS algorithm as young people called in for jab

The QCovid risk prediction algorithm, introduced last month, combines various characteristics, including age, sex, ethnicity and body mass index (BMI), to estimate the risk of catching, being admitted to hospital, or dying from Covid-19.

However, the algorithm appears to throw up certain inconsistencies. For example, if a patient’s weight or ethnicity are not recorded on their health records, QCovid automatically ascribes them a BMI of 31 (obese) and the highest risk ethnicity (black African), meaning they are more likely to be invited for a vaccine.

Young, healthy people are less likely to have measurements such as body weight recorded in their health records, said Irene Petersen, professor of epidemiology and health informatics at University College London.

Now MrRaven isn't young, but he avoids doctors like the plague so they probably don't have a BMI on record for him.

Great. So Frau HS, who was kicked out of Group 6 for only having had two courses of oral steroids and regularly sees the doctor for her pretty serious asthma, doesn’t get the vaccine, but people who haven’t been to the doctor do get it?

Not to take anything away from MrRaven getting the vaccine, but that system of algorithmic decision making seems spectacularly stupid.