Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:00 pm
It's now in the Guardian with some balancing comments.
It's now in the Guardian with some balancing comments.
That is.... a good article, right? It even links to the published work. If only it would be read by those who swallowed the Telegraph piece, but I think they're too busy demanding the immediate lifting of all restrictions.
Didn't they have to redo their graphs the day after one of the Whitty/Valance press conferences?wilsontown wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:23 pmWell, see my signature...
But can we point to any models that have been wrong but also useful during the pandemic? The Imperial work arguably forced the government to face the reality that some level of lockdown was necessary, despite the "thousands of lines of undocumented c" involved (shpalman, I think).
Any others?
The analogy with weather forecasting is nice, but misses the opportunity to point out that if the forecast is for rain, that does not inducce the clouds to decide to go elsewhere, while telling people your prediction for herd immunity does, making it much harder to make a true prediction (it needs to be a fixed point).
It is a problem that a headache is bothshpalman wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:46 pmlots of people are showing up to A&E with headaches after the AstraZeneca
That's not necessarily true.Herainestold wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:25 pmThere will be no herd immunity against a virus that is constantly mutating. Vaccines will keep the death toll in moderation, but the pandemic will continue.
Vaccines 'due to be rolled out to the over-40s this week', NHS chief says
The Department of Health and Social Care confirmed that doses of the Moderna vaccine will be rolled out in England from “mid April” after first doses were already delivered in Wales and Scotland, while an NHS chief said jabs would be offered to the over-40s as early as this week, PA reports.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _March.pdf
An estimated 10,400 deaths have been averted as a result of the COVID-19 vaccination programme up to the end of March 2021.
This analysis is based on the direct effects of the vaccination on mortality. There is increasing evidence that both vaccines in use in England prevent infection and transmission. The indirect effects of the vaccination programme will not be incorporated in this analysis, therefore the figure of 10,400 deaths averted is likely to be an underestimate.
These findings provide further evidence that the COVID-19 vaccination programme is already having a significant impact on severe COVID-19 disease in England beyond the effect of the national lockdown. Furthermore, the true value of these vaccines may be in terms of future deaths we might now avoid if there is a resurgence of covid-19 in the UK in the future.
If anyone's not seen this is for the Over 45s as of yesterday morning. The NHS booking website was very very busy with slots disappearing as you try to book them. Less busy areas might not be as bad.headshot wrote: ↑Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:15 pmhttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... e74739e5cc
Vaccines 'due to be rolled out to the over-40s this week', NHS chief says
The Department of Health and Social Care confirmed that doses of the Moderna vaccine will be rolled out in England from “mid April” after first doses were already delivered in Wales and Scotland, while an NHS chief said jabs would be offered to the over-40s as early as this week, PA reports.
And what about people who CAN’T be vaccinated. Just leave them to die I guess. It’s what Jesus would do.shpalman wrote: ↑Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:02 pmintroduction of vaccine passports would constitute an unethical form of coercion and violation of the principle of informed consent
“If the vaccines are highly effective in preventing significant disease, as seems to be the evidence from trial results to date, then those who have been vaccinated have already received protection; there is no benefit to them of other people being vaccinated,” says the UK Christian interdenominational department of epidemiology.
which is good.Many church leaders have backed efforts to persuade people to be vaccinated against Covid. The Give Hope campaign, launched in February, sought to dispel vaccination concerns, particularly among black churchgoers.
The open letter from Christian church leaders also includes this point...shpalman wrote: ↑Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:02 pmintroduction of vaccine passports would constitute an unethical form of coercion and violation of the principle of informed consent
“If the vaccines are highly effective in preventing significant disease, as seems to be the evidence from trial results to date, then those who have been vaccinated have already received protection; there is no benefit to them of other people being vaccinated,” says the UK Christian interdenominational department of epidemiology.
Presumably they are alluding to the use of cell lines derived from fetal tissue during vaccine development - i.e. the ethics of using collections of cells thousands of generations removed from the original fetal tissue, to help save the lives of (potentially) millions.People may have various reasons for being unable or unwilling to receive vaccines currently available including, for some Christians, serious issues of conscience related to the ethics of vaccine manufacture or testing
I read somewhere that the total number of aborted fetuses used for every "aborted fetus cell line" ever, worldwide, is something like 2 or 3, from 40-50 years ago. I had no idea; I had actually thought that there was a minute amount of recent stem cells going into manufacturing.bob sterman wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 6:11 pmThe open letter from Christian church leaders also includes this point...
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/an- ... -passports
Presumably they are alluding to the use of cell lines derived from fetal tissue during vaccine development - i.e. the ethics of using collections of cells thousands of generations removed from the original fetal tissue, to help save the lives of (potentially) millions.People may have various reasons for being unable or unwilling to receive vaccines currently available including, for some Christians, serious issues of conscience related to the ethics of vaccine manufacture or testing
I think the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were tested on these human cell lines at some point - to confirm they could induce appropriate protein synthesis. So they can rely on that.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:39 pmAnd of course the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are entirely synthetic, so they'll have to come up with some other form of pretzel logic to object to that. Perhaps "Only God can make RNA, any synthesised version is blasphemy".
Yes we were discussing that in the main thread, including the spikes around university townsbob sterman wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:00 pmWell - we know for sure that Heneghan's "modelling" didn't match up to reality.badger wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:26 amThe models were criticised for using out of date and flawed assumptions about levels of population immunity and effectiveness of the vaccine as well as failing to factor in reductions in transmission due to vaccination and seasonality.
Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at Oxford University, said: "In my 20-plus years as a doctor, I've never come across a summer surge in a respiratory infection in the UK. The modelling now keeps changing dramatically, so it's hard to see how it helps us. What we really want to do is look at the real-world data and make decisions from there.
"One of the problems is nobody is going back and checking whether the modelling matched up with the reality. We know that modelling in schools has not helped us because it was incorrect. So we need to have a reality check."
August 30th, 2020 Heneghan made the following claims on BBC Radio 5...
Followed, later in September by his "No evidence right now of a second wave" claim...- It's never been safer for students come back to universities.
- It's not right now a big issue.
- Right now, the disease is at a very low level.
- Anxiety [about going back to work in universities] is not well placed.
- Right now [COVID-19] is a low impact, a weak disease, that is not causing the same problems as it caused in March & April.
https://news.sky.com/video/square-video ... 4-12076907
Carl's "no evidence of a second wave claim" came after new case numbers had risen from 1000 per day in August, to about 5000-6000 per day around 20th September.