Scrutable

raven wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:41 pm

Ok, I'm confuzzled.

The official gov dashboard puts the whole UK at 78.9% first doses and 56.6% second doses today.

But the the weekly flu and Covid report (which admittedly only goes up to Jun 6th) has England at 54.4% first doses and 38.2% second.

England can't be that far behind the other nations. I thought at first they were counting it out of the whole population instead of everyone over 18. But something is well fishy about the total population they're using, because it's almost 62 million when the ONS reckon England weighs in at 56m and some change.

*scratches head* Are they counting temporary visitors or something? Migrant workers?

Is the lower percentage the total population, whilst the higher one the population over 18?

Yes, the dashboard is definitely using just over 18s. No idea what the weekly report is using.

Our son (23) booked his first jab last night and his appointment is tomorrow morning. 2nd appointment 8 weeks hence. Things are moving ahead quicker than I realised.

A nurse friend messaged him and all their mates yesterday evening suggesting they try to book as she understood the invitation to 23+ was about to go out. Seems like she was right.

Child B (22) got appointment for 26 June. Appointments will be opened up to all 18+ by the end of this week.

The numbers suggest 18s will be done by about 12 July in England. Official deadline is 19 July for all adults being offered - should be delivered comfortably. Plus all seconds for >40s.

Which means all adults will be fully second dosed by 6 September. Probably all 16-18s first dosed by then, maybe 12-16 if they decide to go ahead. That's a pretty good wall for the school reopening / return to universities.

mediocrity511 wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:45 pm

raven wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:41 pm

Ok, I'm confuzzled.

The official gov dashboard puts the whole UK at 78.9% first doses and 56.6% second doses today.

But the the weekly flu and Covid report (which admittedly only goes up to Jun 6th) has England at 54.4% first doses and 38.2% second.

England can't be that far behind the other nations. I thought at first they were counting it out of the whole population instead of everyone over 18. But something is well fishy about the total population they're using, because it's almost 62 million when the ONS reckon England weighs in at 56m and some change.

*scratches head* Are they counting temporary visitors or something? Migrant workers?

Is the lower percentage the total population, whilst the higher one the population over 18?

That and the fact it's wk22 not wk24 where we are?

raven wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:41 pm

Ok, I'm confuzzled.

The official gov dashboard puts the whole UK at 78.9% first doses and 56.6% second doses today.

But the the weekly flu and Covid report (which admittedly only goes up to Jun 6th) has England at 54.4% first doses and 38.2% second.

England can't be that far behind the other nations. I thought at first they were counting it out of the whole population instead of everyone over 18. But something is well fishy about the total population they're using, because it's almost 62 million when the ONS reckon England weighs in at 56m and some change.

*scratches head* Are they counting temporary visitors or something? Migrant workers?

I think this was discussed on More or Less the other day and one measurement uses an underestimate (ONS) and the other an overestimate because it is to do with GP registration or something similar so (for example) Cambridge looks very bad because of the students who have not re-registered with a local GP

jimbob wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:46 pm

mediocrity511 wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:45 pm

raven wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:41 pm

Ok, I'm confuzzled.

The official gov dashboard puts the whole UK at 78.9% first doses and 56.6% second doses today.

But the the weekly flu and Covid report (which admittedly only goes up to Jun 6th) has England at 54.4% first doses and 38.2% second.

England can't be that far behind the other nations. I thought at first they were counting it out of the whole population instead of everyone over 18. But something is well fishy about the total population they're using, because it's almost 62 million when the ONS reckon England weighs in at 56m and some change.

*scratches head* Are they counting temporary visitors or something? Migrant workers?

Is the lower percentage the total population, whilst the higher one the population over 18?

That and the fact it's wk22 not wk24 where we are?

It's about 5 days behind when it comes out - published on Friday, figures up to the previous Sunday I think.

TAFKAsoveda wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:06 pm

I think this was discussed on More or Less the other day and one measurement uses an underestimate (ONS) and the other an overestimate because it is to do with GP registration or something similar so (for example) Cambridge looks very bad because of the students who have not re-registered with a local GP

Shows you how difficult it is to get an accurate population count, I suppose.

If they're going by GP registrations, I bet they're undercounting young people. Son#1 (27) moved just before the first lockdown and didn't register with a GP, so is now scrambling to get that done so he can get jabbed. (His lovely girlfriend is way more organised and got hers last week.) Son#2 is up in Scotland where it's organised through uni (prob cos they realise how rubbish students are at registering with GPs) and already open to all students 18-25, so he should be done soon if he can be arsed to leave the house. He's become even lazier over lockdown...

Prof Jeremy Brown, professor of respiratory infection at University College London and a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation wrote:some parts of the capital could see January-type levels of hospitalisation later this year because of poor vaccine take-up.

live blog link

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/140851 ... 43493?s=09

The whole table

10% of all #COVID19 hospitalizations last week were among fully vaccinated, despite >50% adults fully vaccinated in the UK— this is the #DeltaVariant, which is 99% of all cases. I’m a big 2-dose vaccine advocate—but we still need strong precaution. https://t.co/zeelo0BLhv https://t.co/0W1WHXagrQ

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 27, 2021 8:11 am

Why most people who now die with Covid have been vaccinated

I explained all that, on this thread, on 17 May. I've produced ballpark predictions with proportions similar to the tables above.

It's an instance where Twitter amateur modellers got it wrong and the govt was right. There was never going to be a wave of deaths and hospitalizations of the unvaccinated young - the age-risk line is so extraordinarily steep. 1st dose only for <50 is fine.

The basic story for the third wave will be half the deaths from very elderly fully vaccinated, and half from unvaccinated >50, who are weighted towards minorities and the disadvantaged.

lpm wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 27, 2021 9:54 am

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 27, 2021 8:11 am

Why most people who now die with Covid have been vaccinated

I explained all that, on this thread, on 17 May. I've produced ballpark predictions with proportions similar to the tables above.

It's an instance where Twitter amateur modellers got it wrong and the govt was right. There was never going to be a wave of deaths and hospitalizations of the unvaccinated young - the age-risk line is so extraordinarily steep. 1st dose only for <50 is fine.

The basic story for the third wave will be half the deaths from very elderly fully vaccinated, and half from unvaccinated >50, who are weighted towards minorities and the disadvantaged.

They were talking about the average age of covid patients in hospital being lower as if that were a good thing.

Of course having younger people in hospital on average is a good thing. It shows how brilliantly vaccinations are at preventing hospitalisations.

This forum seems slow to catch up with what a Covid wave looks like in a vaccinated nation. Listening too much to the moronic troll.

By 19 July, 90% of adults >18 will be at least first dosed, with 90% of >50 double dosed. Plus a reasonable proportion of <18s will have immunity from previous infections (and some doubled dosed due to health conditions). It's not quite herd immunity at R=8 for delta, but it's not far off it.

The third wave will settle down to a similar pattern as the first and second, except with different gearing. It will still be old people who are hospitalised and die - just at something like a tenth of previous levels. A third wave of 60,000 cases a day is the equivalent to 6,000 a day in the first and second waves. We don't yet know the exact gearing because the data on vaccine effectiveness against delta isn't complete - but the absence of deaths is pretty remarkable, running well below nearly all the official models.

It's absolutely clear the UK government will let the virus rip through the population after 19 July with minimal formal lockdown restrictions but some degree of personal voluntary restrictions. We will see very high case numbers but:

- For the unvaccinated it will follow the exact pattern as the first and second waves - extreme concentration of deaths/hospitalisations in the elderly, almost no risk to the young; ethnic and disadvantaged bias.

- For the imperfectly vaccinated it looks like everyone steps down a rung or two on the severity ladder: an elderly person is hospitalised instead of dying, a 65 year old has a nasty illness at home but isn't hospitalised, a 40 year old has inconsequential symptoms instead of a nasty illness. As always, deaths will see extreme concentration in the elderly and severe pre-existing conditions cohorts

- For young people with a single dose, it appears they'll have higher rates temporarily until their second doses are complete early September - but risk of death is trivial. One dose is fine.

- Children are going to be left unvaccinated and will see high rates - but school holidays bring classroom super-spreader events to an end. September could see a upsurge in raw case numbers but hospitalisation of children even during the peaks of the waves was in single digits.

... lots of other places doing 21 day walk-ins across country if you search Twitter and https://t.co/bHbuEn9pAi. (Seems a problem that early 2nd jab knowledge is on Reddit, but not NHS website.)

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 27, 2021 8:11 am

Why most people who now die with Covid have been vaccinated

Whistling past the graveyard.

Expert argues to maintain children as reservoir of covid virus

(Pfizer is also being given to ages 12 and up in some EU countries.)

shpalman wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:21 am

Expert argues to maintain children as reservoir of covid virus

(Pfizer is also being given to ages 12 and up in some EU countries.)

As a pediatrician I'm going on record saying that allowing kids to be freely infected with a novel disease that has unknown long term consequences is the worst idea of 2021 despite being a pretty crowded field so far

https://mobile.twitter.com/drgregkelly/ ... 5034117120

To be clear, I’m not talking about Australia but about other places, like UK, where this idea is forming

Why we, one of the best COVID19 performers, would want to emulate countries that have had such catastrophic outcomes is totally beyond me

UK first doses are slowing right down due to lack of demand.

It's time to take the vaccines out of health centres, stadiums and village halls, and go on the road.

Set up in pubs, restaurants, cinemas, high streets, shopping malls. Capture 18-30s spontaneously instead of via appointments. That's where the big wins will come now, assuming we're not doing 12-18s.

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 08, 2021 2:04 pm

UK first doses are slowing right down due to lack of demand.

It's time to take the vaccines out of health centres, stadiums and village halls, and go on the road.

Set up in pubs, restaurants, cinemas, high streets, shopping malls. Capture 18-30s spontaneously instead of via appointments. That's where the big wins will come now, assuming we're not doing 12-18s.

Is it lack of demand, or is it AZ (of which there is plenty) not being allowed to the people who are now in scope for vaccination, and Pfizer being retained to ensure that the singly vaccinated can get their second dose?

On the other hand, Gfamilydaughter got a knock on her door (second floor, at the far end of the block) asking if she wanted a jab as there was a local centre with spares.

So I don't know, but I've certainly heard there's a certain amount of holding back going on - so maybe they're holding back on invitations until they are more sure of ability to follow up in 4 weeks' time

shpalman wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:26 pm

why bother getting the vaccine when the government says everything's going back to normal soon?

Which works better to motivate people to get vaccinated, a positive message or fear? Or old fashioned compulsion?

shpalman wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:26 pm

why bother getting the vaccine when the government says everything's going back to normal soon?

Lol.

The sudden drop off was entirely predictable. 10 seconds thought was enough to forecast that.

Obviously as you go down the age groups, you always have a next cohort ready to race to book appointments the minute their age opens up. Right down to 18 year olds who do their Glastonbury rush. Then the phone lines fall silent: the eagers are all booked in and you are left chasing stragglers.

It shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone. Here's me forecasting just this all the way back in March:

The problem will hit overnight: one moment loads of 18 years waiting eagerly in the queue, the next moment nothing but people who ignored text messages.

They should have forecast various categories of uptake long ago - "Eagers", "Get round to it laters", "Can't be arseds", "Refusers"... To be fair, it's a highly marginal decision for 18 year olds, their risk of the vaccine is almost identical to the risk of the disease, and the reason we want them to get jabbed is our selfish desire for a bit of extra reduction in transmission.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:53 pm

shpalman wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:26 pm

why bother getting the vaccine when the government says everything's going back to normal soon?

Which works better to motivate people to get vaccinated, a positive message or fear? Or old fashioned compulsion?

You could just tell them if they get vaccinated they can go on holiday somewhere hot and sunny without 10 days in quarantine when they return.