Scrutable

I don't know if some countries will make having a COVID-19 vaccine actually mandatory. Given the opposition to vaccines in general in some countries, I don't think there will be all that many. But at some point I can imagine airlines and some other businesses making it a condition of travel, and maybe countries like Australia and New Zealand making it mandatory for entry. The CEO of Qantas was interviewed a couple of weeks ago saying they would be making vaccines compulsory, to the disgust of Delingtwat and company who announced they would boycott Qantas (as if they go to Australia six times a year in first class, so that'll make Qantas tremble).

I wonder at what level of take-up this will occur? If you have to have a vaccine to go on, say, Ryanair, because half of the UK has been vaccinated and the waiting time is less than a week, but in say France only 30% of the population has been vaccinated (either because of some kind delays or simply because Facebook has turned half the country into anti-vaxxers), how will that work?

Time seems to be of the essence if we want to have a tourist season this year. (Disclosure: I live in a place where 35% of the GDP comes from tourism, for good or ill, so this is about avoiding a local depression.)

I expect that between EU countries there would need to be some harmonization, similar to how there is for travel restrictions now (i.e. similar to how countries currently ask for a negative RT-PCR result). The UK will obviously fall out of that so can be treated to tougher restrictions for entering the EU.

But then I'm not sure if there'll have been enough vaccination before the summer,* and of course the priorities are the most vulnerable and the most exposed, not the most spready people, and we still don't have data about how the vaccine will stop people being spready.

So at the beginning it shouldn't be "you can't come here until you're vaccinated" but rather "you can't come here until we're vaccinated".

* - it seems to change from day to day, but today I heard that the Italian strategy would be to have everyone** vaccinated before the 2012/22 school year starts in mid/late September.

Another issue is that I don't think the UK is really keeping track of who has been vaccinated so it's not obvious to me what kind of proof of vaccination status they'd be able to show.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:08 pm

Another issue is that I don't think the UK is really keeping track of who has been vaccinated so it's not obvious to me what kind of proof of vaccination status they'd be able to show.

In both France and the Netherlands, when you get your first vaccination in the healthcare system you get a little yellow booklet, which is meant to last your whole life if you manage not to lose it. The doctor or nurse records the date of every vaccination, and in some cases peels off a little sticker from the vial that presumably contains the vaccine type and batch number data.

The man I saw interviewed who had just had the Pfizer vaccine in the UK had a handwritten card with just his name, the date, and the batch number. But in case we thought that was "sinister" ("Bill Gates is keeping an actual list of the people he's tracking"), we were reassured that it was just an appointment card. f.ck that, I want everyone to be able to prove they had the vaccine, with holograms on the little labels. I fully expect Toby Young's "Lockdown Skeptic c.nts" site to be telling people how to fake a vaccine certificate very shortly.

We need to know if the vaccine prevents asymptomatic spread before we can discuss this.

If it only protects the vaccinated person, there's a lot weaker argument for mandatory. Like a tetanus jab - a person should at liberty to reject something if the only harm is to that individual.

For a year to 18 months, those rejecting the vaccine simply move eager people up the queue. Why not send vaccines to the elderly in Africa before pressuring young and stupid westerners to have a vaccine they don't want?

It will have to have reached the point of being as available as other travel vaccines before this becomes a thing. Probably 2022.

I'm assuming that if the vaccine works at all, this particular covid will be all but eradicated by then except for the occasional flareup, and I'd expect vaccination to be mandatory only if travelling to a region which is having one of those.

Maybe I'm optimistic.

I'd be surprised if people will be allowed to enter Australia without either a vaccine or a two-week hotel quarantine next year. For context there are tens of thousands of Australians overseas on waiting lists to come home because there isn't space in the quarantine program. Vaccines might also be what allows our government to let us leave the country (it currently requires an iron-curtain style permission slip from the government to leave, which generally only gets given if you're moving overseas permanently or if you're doing something important for the government).

I won't be at all surprised if vaccines become something close to mandatory for travel between states too.

lpm wrote: ↑

Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:43 pm

For a year to 18 months, those rejecting the vaccine simply move eager people up the queue. Why not send vaccines to the elderly in Africa before pressuring young and stupid westerners to have a vaccine they don't want?

If coronavirus spread through young stupid westerners as fast as other viruses, like HPV, I suspect the economic impact of having a crippled workforce and clogged-up health service would make it worth while to at least make a bit of effort.

Morally, I certainly think the most vulnerable globally should be the priority. Which probably means westerners in general, with their highly developed infrastructure making remote working easier, and better access to affordable healthcare, a lower priority than at least the urban half of developing countries.

Here is an article about whether U.S. employers can require their employees to get vaccinated. This is an interesting part:

Kranz said that if a mandatory vaccination policy is not imposed, employees may allege that the employer has failed to provide a safe and healthy work environment, which is required by the Occupational Safety and Health Act.

"It would be breaking new ground to hold employers liable for not requiring vaccination," said Lindsay Burke, an attorney with Covington in Washington, D.C. "On the other hand, if public health authority guidance adopts the view that employers should not permit unvaccinated employees into the workplace, one might imagine this issue being a factor in tort litigation over whether appropriate safety protocols were followed by an employer."

Squeak wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 12:57 am

I'd be surprised if people will be allowed to enter Australia without either a vaccine or a two-week hotel quarantine next year. For context there are tens of thousands of Australians overseas on waiting lists to come home because there isn't space in the quarantine program. Vaccines might also be what allows our government to let us leave the country (it currently requires an iron-curtain style permission slip from the government to leave, which generally only gets given if you're moving overseas permanently or if you're doing something important for the government).

I won't be at all surprised if vaccines become something close to mandatory for travel between states too.

Perhaps if you want to travel to Western Australia, but unless something goes completely pear-shaped I am expecting most of the other state governments to be more sensible.

The Federal Government is already making noises about requiring vaccination for international travel, both exit and entry. The upside of that will be no more visits by anti-vaccine luminaries from the US that the government then has to ban. I will be somewhat down the list for a vaccine, so will have to wait my turn.

I am having an interesting long-distance discussion with my mother-in-law who doesn't think she should worry about the vaccine because she is elderly and doesn't really go many places any more. I did point out to her, that if they didn't get COVID under control over there we might not be able to see her again, because it will be a banned destination. She should do her bit and just get vaccinated.

Chris Preston wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:13 am

Perhaps if you want to travel to Western Australia, but unless something goes completely pear-shaped I am expecting most of the other state governments to be more sensible.

Tassie's got a moat and it's not afraid to use it. As in, I I won't be at all surprised if Tasmania creates some kind of vaccine exemption to the good2go passes at least for this year, thus creating a simple compulsory system, at least in the short term.

Squeak wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 5:03 am

Chris Preston wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:13 am

Perhaps if you want to travel to Western Australia, but unless something goes completely pear-shaped I am expecting most of the other state governments to be more sensible.

Tassie's got a moat and it's not afraid to use it. As in, I I won't be at all surprised if Tasmania creates some kind of vaccine exemption to the good2go passes at least for this year, thus creating a simple compulsory system, at least in the short term.

I'm going to be following this quite closely, as I'm hoping to head over to Tassie next year (Feb, maybe). That'd be well before I can get vaccinated, but at the moment the restrictions are different depending on which government site you go to, and I don't expect them to become less confusing for a few months.

Martin_B wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:46 am

Squeak wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 5:03 am

Chris Preston wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:13 am

Perhaps if you want to travel to Western Australia, but unless something goes completely pear-shaped I am expecting most of the other state governments to be more sensible.

Tassie's got a moat and it's not afraid to use it. As in, I I won't be at all surprised if Tasmania creates some kind of vaccine exemption to the good2go passes at least for this year, thus creating a simple compulsory system, at least in the short term.

I'm going to be following this quite closely, as I'm hoping to head over to Tassie next year (Feb, maybe). That'd be well before I can get vaccinated, but at the moment the restrictions are different depending on which government site you go to, and I don't expect them to become less confusing for a few months.

I've been getting my travel advice from https://www.coronavirus.tas.gov.au/ which seems to match government press releases and media reporting pretty well. But then, I haven't actually managed to leave the state yet so it could all be lies...

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:08 pm

Another issue is that I don't think the UK is really keeping track of who has been vaccinated so it's not obvious to me what kind of proof of vaccination status they'd be able to show.

Well. When we moved to a bit of the US that mandated a bunch of vaccines for school attendance, I took the kid's UK health books which had their shots noted in them and that was enough proof. Also a doctor's letter from our GP to say son#1 had had chickenpox was enough to get him off needing that one.

So maybe a GP's letter would be sufficient? (Assuming that they're linking it to your NHS number, so GPs wil be able to access the information.)

raven wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:07 pm

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:08 pm

Another issue is that I don't think the UK is really keeping track of who has been vaccinated so it's not obvious to me what kind of proof of vaccination status they'd be able to show.

Well. When we moved to a bit of the US that mandated a bunch of vaccines for school attendance, I took the kid's UK health books which had their shots noted in them and that was enough proof. Also a doctor's letter from our GP to say son#1 had had chickenpox was enough to get him off needing that one.

So maybe a GP's letter would be sufficient? (Assuming that they're linking it to your NHS number, so GPs wil be able to access the information.)

The details vary, but I believe all U.S. states require vaccinations for school attendance. A letter from the child's doctor, or a form signed by the doctor, is all that's required/expected in most cases. There's a nice chart here of what exemptions are allowed in different states.

bolo wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:18 pm

There's a nice chart here of what exemptions are allowed in different states.

OT: That polar graph is terrible dataviz. A table with the states in alphabetical order would have done just fine.

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:23 pm

bolo wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:18 pm

There's a nice chart here of what exemptions are allowed in different states.

OT: That polar graph is terrible dataviz. A table with the states in alphabetical order would have done just fine.

I'm not sure I agree. A table with 52 rows would require scrolling, whereas the polar version fits nicely on one screen. I agree about alphabetical order, though, as the regional groupings don't seem to show much, if anything.

bolo wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:37 pm

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:23 pm

bolo wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:18 pm

There's a nice chart here of what exemptions are allowed in different states.

OT: That polar graph is terrible dataviz. A table with the states in alphabetical order would have done just fine.

I'm not sure I agree. A table with 52 rows would require scrolling, whereas the polar version fits nicely on one screen. I agree about alphabetical order, though, as the regional groupings don't seem to show much, if anything.

Whether or not it's nice that the display doesn't require scrolling would seem to depend on what use the information is to be put to. Since the entries around the edge are categorical with only a limited geographical relationship to each other (and occasional large discontinuties), I don't think there is much benefit to having them all visible at once. Indeed, the information within the wheel is also categorical. There are no patterns of any kind, and it will take the average inhabitant of any state several times longer than they expect to find the information relevant to them. (Wyoming residents have their fingers poised over the scroll wheel of the mouse before any page finishes loading; Alabamians know they can just finish their tea.)

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:35 pm

Whether or not it's nice that the display doesn't require scrolling would seem to depend on what use the information is to be put to.

Yes, and if you're looking for specifics about an individual state, this is the wrong place to look. You ought to be on the website of your state's Department of Health, or your state's entry in this compilation by the National Association of State Boards of Education. The CDC graphic's purpose, it seems to me, is to give an overview of policies nationally, for which it helps to see the whole country at once.

But de gustibus non disputandum.

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:35 pm

Alabamians know they can just finish their tea.)

Iced and sweet, presumably!

bolo wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:56 pm

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:35 pm

Alabamians know they can just finish their tea.)

Iced and sweet, presumably!

Yes - the first time someone from the South asked me if I wanted "hot tea" I was a bit taken aback.

And they don't even put milk in it!

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:43 pm

bolo wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:56 pm

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:35 pm

Alabamians know they can just finish their tea.)

Iced and sweet, presumably!

Yes - the first time someone from the South asked me if I wanted "hot tea" I was a bit taken aback.

I can report that proper tea is available in Alabama as well as the sweet cold stuff. And not just the weak American brands, if you know where to look (it's kept next to the Iron Bru).

Since moving here I've enjoyed being at the top of drop down lists.

bolo wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:18 pm

The details vary, but I believe all U.S. states require vaccinations for school attendance.

Oh, I didn't realise that. I've only lived in two states, and the kids only went to school in one. (Neither was a sweet iced tea state. Not that I drink tea anyway.)