Scrutable

It turned out that the panic buying that took place back in February-March was an overreaction. There were no real shortages, and supply lines kept running. Despite that, though, there have been lower-intensity flare-ups at other points of the pandemic.

But things are different now. If Brexit wasn't happening then perhaps the supermarkets could handle 48 hours with no imports of fresh food from Europe. But the trucks were already getting backlogged. There are going to be actual shortages even if nobody stockpiles. And with Christmas, COVID, problems with staffing, and the possibility of bad weather, it doesn't seem likely that things can get back to normal this year.

In other words, a no-deal Brexit just happened this evening.

With that in mind: Is it anything other than rational to get down to Tesco at 8am UK time on Monday (about 8 hours from now), as I suspect that a very large number of people are going to do? Indeed, if you have children or other vulnerable people to feed, are you going to think that there is anything more important you could be doing than ensuring that they don't go hungry?

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:11 am

Is it anything other than rational to get down to Tesco at 8am UK time on Monday (about 8 hours from now), as I suspect that a very large number of people are going to do? Indeed, if you have children or other vulnerable people to feed, are you going to think that there is anything more important you could be doing than ensuring that they don't go hungry?

That depends on whether you have aleady been stocking up because of Brexit (or caution/paranoia). And on what risk you think you have of catching Covid-19 from all the crowds going shopping.

I learnt when I got up this morning that the French had stopped arrivals from UK so problems with the Dover freight crossings. Quick breakfast, no shave and in Waitrose's before 08.00 to do a bit of panic buying, just the stuff I should have bought on Christmas Eve, if the use by dates were adequate. Not too much as there are only the two of us this year, that was decided weeks back.

I got to Sainsburys at 7:15.

It was packed. Pretty unpleasant. Not chaos, but the sort of crowds you get in the few days before Christmas. I had hoped for quiet aisles.

By the time I left cars were queuing to park.

It's open 6 to midnight which maybe will ease things. Probably 11 pm is better than first thing.

Imagine christmas but with panic buying and a pandemic that spreads by having lots of people in close contact indoors breathing at each other. Mad.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 10:50 am

Imagine christmas but with panic buying and a pandemic that spreads by having lots of people in close contact indoors breathing at each other. Mad.

The closer you are to London or Kent, the more significant the madness of this.

I think I might go and panic-buy turkey to feed 3.

I saw in sainsbury yesterday their 4 shelves of turkeys, ranked by size. The small/extra small shelf was bare. I suddenly twigged that the shops are going to be stocked with turkeys big enough to feed 12+ people and nobody is going to have that many guests this year.

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:11 am

With that in mind: Is it anything other than rational to get down to Tesco at 8am UK time on Monday (about 8 hours from now), as I suspect that a very large number of people are going to do? Indeed, if you have children or other vulnerable people to feed, are you going to think that there is anything more important you could be doing than ensuring that they don't go hungry?

The fewer people that overbuy, the less chance there is of anyone going hungry. If people suddenly stock up they are creating the problem. Blaming that behaviour on other people doesn't make it rational.

Martin Y wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:01 am

I think I might go and panic-buy turkey to feed 3.

I saw in sainsbury yesterday their 4 shelves of turkeys, ranked by size. The small/extra small shelf was bare. I suddenly twigged that the shops are going to be stocked with turkeys big enough to feed 12+ people and nobody is going to have that many guests this year.

Correct. Or, if you're me, you ordered a 7kg turkey three months ago and now are going to have to eat a 7kg turkey in a household of 2 people.

Another interesting impact are the people who have online orders coming in the next few days, and had to book them months ago, and who have perhaps been either scaling up or down their item list, depending on whether they were planning to host or be hosted.

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:11 am

It turned out that the panic buying that took place back in February-March was an overreaction. There were no real shortages, and supply lines kept running. Despite that, though, there have been lower-intensity flare-ups at other points of the pandemic.

I think there was less panic buying than people imagined back in February. The shortages in retail outlets were to a large extent a result of a shift in patterns of consumption. In normal times people consume some of their food and toiletries in the home, but a significant minority of the consumption is in workplaces, restaurants, etc. We suddenly shifted to a situation where virtually all of it was in the home, which meant increased demand on supermarkets, and a reduced demand on catering and office suppliers (the ever-resourceful Mrs. Snooze clocked this early on, and started seeking out catering and office outlets to see if they would deliver to homes, which they often did). It's not obvious what will happen this time. Most people would stock up with stuff anyway over this period, and many will be worrying about having too much in the house rather than too little as a result of the cancellation of family gatherings.

Mrs. Snooze has just put in an order with one of her catering outlets, and we've added some port to the supermarket shopping list, but we were going to do that anyway. I don't think we could panic buy even if we wanted to, because we have no more room to put any extra stuff.

TimW wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:02 am

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:11 am

With that in mind: Is it anything other than rational to get down to Tesco at 8am UK time on Monday (about 8 hours from now), as I suspect that a very large number of people are going to do? Indeed, if you have children or other vulnerable people to feed, are you going to think that there is anything more important you could be doing than ensuring that they don't go hungry?

The fewer people that overbuy, the less chance there is of anyone going hungry. If people suddenly stock up they are creating the problem. Blaming that behaviour on other people doesn't make it rational.

Yeah, anyone who stocks up on loads of food when we've got christmas and a pandemic and a confirmed no deal brexit and no government management of food supplies (but they're incompetent anyway) is a tw.t.

There won't be much over buying of lettuce. The whole problem is that imports of perishables have stopped and by definition you can't stockpile perishables.

The aisles with tins of beans and toilet rolls were pretty quiet this morning, fruit and veg was crowded.

What about panicked not buying though?

Our local very good butcher has been taking advance orders for a couple of months, and I worry that there will be lots of people who will be forgoing their deposits or changing their orders from large turkeys to something smaller.

We were going to have a chicken, but Ocado offered us a £60 turkey for £16. We have a freezer, so can’t refuse.

Sainsbury's was busy this morning. I did my normal Monday shop and then panic-bought a chorizo. Sorry.

Quite disappointing in my local Sainsburys, I was looking forward to watching the life-or-death struggle over the last parsnip but no, everything still in stock.

Food shortages? No problem.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:18 am

Martin Y wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:01 am

I think I might go and panic-buy turkey to feed 3.

I saw in sainsbury yesterday their 4 shelves of turkeys, ranked by size. The small/extra small shelf was bare. I suddenly twigged that the shops are going to be stocked with turkeys big enough to feed 12+ people and nobody is going to have that many guests this year.

Correct. Or, if you're me, you ordered a 7kg turkey three months ago and now are going to have to eat a 7kg turkey in a household of 2 people.

Have you not heard of turkey sandwiches, turkey risotto, turkey curry, turkey stroganoff, ham and turkey pie, etc?

Well yeah. The point is that people generally would prefer not to have that problem, if they have the choice

Martin_B wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 1:41 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:18 am

Martin Y wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:01 am

I think I might go and panic-buy turkey to feed 3.

I saw in sainsbury yesterday their 4 shelves of turkeys, ranked by size. The small/extra small shelf was bare. I suddenly twigged that the shops are going to be stocked with turkeys big enough to feed 12+ people and nobody is going to have that many guests this year.

Correct. Or, if you're me, you ordered a 7kg turkey three months ago and now are going to have to eat a 7kg turkey in a household of 2 people.

Have you not heard of turkey sandwiches, turkey risotto, turkey curry, turkey stroganoff, ham and turkey pie, etc?

And if you have cats, the big turkeys are working out cheaper then cat food, strip what is left and freeze and add to cats' dinners= happy cats

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 1:48 pm

Well yeah. The point is that people generally would prefer not to have that problem, if they have the choice

I like turkey risotto!

rabbit butty wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 1:53 pm

And if you have cats, the big turkeys are working out cheaper then cat food, strip what is left and freeze and add to cats' dinners= happy cats

They also like the gravy. Well, when I say "like", they act like addicts on cold turkey (pardon the pun)

Mrs V went to a Derby Sainsburys this morning, as we now know that Veravistina isn't coming down so had to modify the menu to take that into account. Had to wait for for a couple of people to leave before she went in, did a normal shop although the vol au vent and nibbles section was stripped. Got some veg, but will mainly be doing that at the local farm shop (better quality by a mile) and pick up the butchers list on Christmas Eve where it's pre-ordered only.

Woman across the road went out at about 7.30 this morning and has come back with the contents of Asda.

Just got back from my local Sainsbury's. Typical pre-Christmas day, though the queue was like lockdown 1. Pasta and toilet roll aisles well-stocked and quiet. Cheese aisle - carnage!

Sounds like this is mostly standard Christmas shopping, not panic buying.

Martin_B wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 1:41 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:18 am

Martin Y wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:01 am

I think I might go and panic-buy turkey to feed 3.

I saw in sainsbury yesterday their 4 shelves of turkeys, ranked by size. The small/extra small shelf was bare. I suddenly twigged that the shops are going to be stocked with turkeys big enough to feed 12+ people and nobody is going to have that many guests this year.

Correct. Or, if you're me, you ordered a 7kg turkey three months ago and now are going to have to eat a 7kg turkey in a household of 2 people.

Have you not heard of turkey sandwiches, turkey risotto, turkey curry, turkey stroganoff, ham and turkey pie, etc?

Turkey enchiladas, turkey tamales.