Brexit Consequences

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
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jdc
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by jdc » Sun Oct 17, 2021 4:09 pm

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news ... 31085.html

Survey conducted last year reported on here has some breakdown by religion - apparently it found 17 percent of Catholics want Northern Ireland to remain in the UK and "a majority of those who say they have no religion here support the union at 48 per cent, while 32 percent of those in the same category back a united Ireland"

And there's a quote from Dr Peter Shirlow, a social demographer and head of Liverpool University’s Institute of Irish Studies:
"There have been at least six household surveys now conducted since 2016 by the University of Liverpool, Queen’s University Belfast and the Ulster Unionist," he explained.

"All these surveys show majority support for remaining in the UK, a significant share of Catholics who support remaining in the UK and no growth in the very small share of Protestants who want Irish unification."
Observer, August 2021: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ying-in-uk "Two-thirds of voters in Northern Ireland believe there should be a vote over its place in the UK, but only 37% want it to take place within the next five years ... Asked to state how they would vote, 49% said they would back remaining in the UK, while 42% backed being part of a united Ireland"

Politico has something on north and south polling: https://www.politico.eu/article/poll-ir ... ts-brexit/
Saturday’s results show 44 percent of people in Northern Ireland want to stay in the U.K., compared to 35 percent who want to leave.

In the south, support for unification is conditioned by who pays. Fifty-four percent of Irish Republic voters would reject unity if it hikes their tax bills, according to the survey, which was conducted by the polling firm Kantar.

Only one in eight would vote for unity if the handover required the Republic to take on Britain’s full costs of subsidizing Northern Ireland.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Oct 18, 2021 4:18 am

Yes, as we’ve discussed with Scotland there would be significant costs involved in breaking up the UK union. Just as there have been in leaving the European Union.

Allo V Psycho
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Allo V Psycho » Mon Oct 18, 2021 4:36 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 4:18 am
Yes, as we’ve discussed with Scotland there would be significant costs involved in breaking up the UK union. Just as there have been in leaving the European Union.
And as there were with the 26 traditional counties of Ireland that formed the Free State and the Republic. I think most people would agree that Irish independence was a good thing.

That there would be costs, is true of Scottish independence as well. In the past I would have voted against Scottish independence. Now I would vote for it, recognising that there may be decades of hardship involved before a benefit eventuates.

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Mon Oct 18, 2021 6:24 pm

An interesting Irish article on HGV driver shortages

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2021/1005 ... ge-gender/

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Mon Oct 18, 2021 9:53 pm

A CNN discussion on why the lack of truck drivers is causing empty shelves in the US

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEgM1JqnuN0

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Oct 19, 2021 4:28 am

sheldrake wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 6:24 pm
An interesting Irish article on HGV driver shortages

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2021/1005 ... ge-gender/
does this mention shortages in Ireland?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Oct 19, 2021 4:32 am

sheldrake wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 9:53 pm
A CNN discussion on why the lack of truck drivers is causing empty shelves in the US

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEgM1JqnuN0
No it’s not, it’s a Fox News Op-Ed. Still struggling with your flat pack?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Oct 19, 2021 5:17 am

I’m not sure why you struggle with this and why you think the change in immigration law from Brexit hasn’t had an impact.

Mr Bailey said: “Brexit is one factor in the mix definitely. It’s not a huge factor, we’re talking about a few thousand (drivers who have left), it’s enough to exacerbate and add on extra challenge. You can’t say Brexit has not had an impact but neither can you say that Brexit is to blame for this.
https://inews.co.uk/news/hgv-driver-sho ... uk-1231010

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:10 am

plodder wrote:
Tue Oct 19, 2021 4:32 am
sheldrake wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 9:53 pm
A CNN discussion on why the lack of truck drivers is causing empty shelves in the US

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEgM1JqnuN0
No it’s not, it’s a Fox News Op-Ed. Still struggling with your flat pack?
You’re quite right. I meant to post https://youtu.be/cWWMA5VQwRM But I think it rolled on to the next video

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:22 am

plodder wrote:
Tue Oct 19, 2021 4:28 am
sheldrake wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 6:24 pm
An interesting Irish article on HGV driver shortages

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2021/1005 ... ge-gender/
does this mention shortages in Ireland?
No, but people in the Republic of Ireland were blaming Brexit and lockdown for their empty shelves in January https://www.independent.ie/business/bre ... 01262.html

temptar
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by temptar » Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:21 am

Brexit disrupted the land bridge to some extent as did utter chaos in Dover before Christmas. There is a reason that the number of ships going direct to France and Belgium for Ireland is growing. Bear in mind that the key example in that piece was Marks and Spencer which is closing shops in France because of these issues. Marks and Spencer is not common in Ireland.

You have a view of the world which seems to be excessively simplistic and devoid of nuance. I am not sure you have a point because a) you have shortages now, Ireland does not and b) this supports the fact that regulatory changes have negatively impacted international trade for Britain.

Now to be blunt, Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU, and Ireland didn't get a vote in your referendum but is still suffering the consequences of England's folly. Nothing you post ever suggests you understand the complexity of your decision, the impact on parts of your own union, the impacts on your supply chains. The benefits are ephemeral and you have to imagine them up.

You inhabit a world where Brexit cannot possibly be blamed for your problems. Stop using my country as a crutch and a hostage and stop trying to wreck a very delicately balanced political arrangement in a part of your union. We didn't cause this mess, these complications. You and your fellow travellers did.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:23 am

You can argue about the benefits in the benefits thread, Temptar. Surrey also voted to remain, and pockets of Northern Ireland voted to leave

Image

These places don't get to go their separate way from the rest of the UK any more than Northern Ireland does.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by temptar » Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:38 am

"We screwed over Surrey too" isn't the slam dunk you think it is.

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:09 am

temptar wrote:
Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:38 am
"We screwed over Surrey too" isn't the slam dunk you think it is.
You're the one trying to dispute the validity of a result by carving up the UK arbitrarily. Imagine if you had a referendum on this and Leinster had different results from Connacht, and I tried to pick apart the result for Ireland on that basis ?

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:26 am

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plodder
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Re: Brexit benefits

Post by plodder » Wed Oct 27, 2021 2:43 pm

Supply chain and logistics is not benefitting

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... 671ec0b29e

Allo V Psycho
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Re: Brexit benefits

Post by Allo V Psycho » Wed Oct 27, 2021 2:55 pm

Since our first post-EU referendum [report] in November 2016, our forecasts have assumed that total UK imports and exports will eventually both be 15% lower than had we stayed in the EU. This reduction in trade intensity drives the 4% reduction in long-run potential productivity we assume will eventually result from our departure from the EU ...

UK-EU goods trade volumes fell sharply after the TCA came into effect, and remain below their pre-Brexit (and pre-pandemic) levels in 2019. Chart E shows that UK goods exports to the EU fell by 45% in January of this year (greater than their fall early in the pandemic) and in August were still down around 15% on the level before the transition period ended. UK goods imports from the EU also fell by over 30% at the start of the year and were still down around 20% in August compared to December 2020. While goods trade with the rest of the world experienced similarly sharp falls at the start of the pandemic, in August it had recovered to 7% below average 2019 levels whereas total goods trade with the EU remained down 15%.

The OBR says it is too early to be sure that the impact of Brexit will be, but that “the evidence so far suggests that both import and export intensity have been reduced by Brexit, with developments still consistent with our initial assumption of a 15% reduction in each”.

plodder
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Re: Brexit benefits

Post by plodder » Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:54 pm

great news for people who want to retaliate against the French

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ishing-row

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Re: UK drug policy

Post by shpalman » Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:04 am

Post-Brexit passport validity issues have nothing to do with covid.
shpalman wrote:
Sat Apr 16, 2022 6:16 am
Martin_B wrote:
Sat Apr 16, 2022 1:22 am
shpalman wrote:
Fri Apr 15, 2022 3:05 pm


Wut?

(Actually, Brexit has caused people to need one sooner than otherwise, since you used to be able to have any remaining validity on your existing one added onto your new one up to a maximum of 9 months past the usual 10 years, but now they're only considered valid until 10 years after the issue date, and you also need more than 6 months left on it to be able to travel to the EU from the UK.)
Did they only add the remaining validity to your passport for a while? My first passport was from Jun '90 to Jun '00. The next was from April '00 to April '10, the 3rd from Sep '09 to April '20, and the most recent Jan '20 to Jan '30. So on 3 renewals twice I've lost ~3 months and the other they gave me a passport which lasted 10 years and 6 months (and 11 days!)
I don't remember my previous ones but I definitely had it on the one which I've just replaced.
Even though Dr Tiganescu had six months left before her UK passport expires, she was barred from the flight and could not head off on the week-long trip because her passport was issued more than 10 years ago.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

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