Brexit Consequences

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jimbob
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by jimbob » Wed Jun 16, 2021 7:16 am

veravista wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:34 pm
I've been concerned about UK manufacturing since 2016 as most people could testify. The point being is that the Cowley works is not state of the art, just the equipment in it. And that is easily removable, just as Toyota in Burnaston has done transfering tooling to their new plant in Portugal. Admittedly they haven't done it in one fell swoop, but it's interesting that for the first time ever the cheap body work pressings are mostly made oversees and not in the UK.

I don't want it to happen and having worked in engineering all my life I hope it doesn't happen, but you know, it's driven by economics - and on a purely practical view it's inevitable if we aren't in the single market or customs union.
Yup, similar view from my part of engineering
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:32 am

Median wage in Portugal is about €1000/month, which has got to help.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by bjn » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:01 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:32 am
Median wage in Portugal is about €1000/month, which has got to help.
Yay! Brexit will level up Portugal with more skilled jobs.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:02 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:32 am
Median wage in Portugal is about €1000/month, which has got to help.
Not necessarily for skilled jobs. Labour productivity is lower in Portugal than it is in other European countries. so the company will pay lower wages but on average the workers will produce less.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:03 pm

Thread on the consequences of the Aus trade deal for UK farmers, written by hill farmer and author James Rebanks https://twitter.com/herdyshepherd1/stat ... 50275?s=20

TLDR the pre-brexit talk of protecting UK farmers and incentivising them to protect biodiversity have just gone right down the shitter. Australia has much lower standards, and much more space. The only way for UK agriculture to compete on price will be through further intensification, with further ecological damage.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:08 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:02 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:32 am
Median wage in Portugal is about €1000/month, which has got to help.
Not necessarily for skilled jobs. Labour productivity is lower in Portugal than it is in other European countries. so the company will pay lower wages but on average the workers will produce less.
Yes, Portugal often sits among Eastern Europe on a lot of economic measures.

At the risk of triggering a derail, how much does this measure control for different kinds of industries? Because there aren't that many skilled jobs producing high-value products here in the first place. Does it make sense to interpolate from an economy-wide metric to compare, say, car factories in different countries? (Genuine question)

Would be nice to have more skilled jobs here, amongst the tourism and call centres.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by shpalman » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:11 pm

Boris Johnson warned the EU that Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, would do “whatever it takes” to protect Northern Ireland’s position as part of the UK.
... doing “whatever it takes” seem to mean pleading with the EU to not start imposing its rules at the end of the month.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:27 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:08 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:02 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:32 am
Median wage in Portugal is about €1000/month, which has got to help.
Not necessarily for skilled jobs. Labour productivity is lower in Portugal than it is in other European countries. so the company will pay lower wages but on average the workers will produce less.
Yes, Portugal often sits among Eastern Europe on a lot of economic measures.

At the risk of triggering a derail, how much does this measure control for different kinds of industries? Because there aren't that many skilled jobs producing high-value products here in the first place. Does it make sense to interpolate from an economy-wide metric to compare, say, car factories in different countries? (Genuine question)

Would be nice to have more skilled jobs here, amongst the tourism and call centres.
Good question. As far as I know the stats are done at a national level - eg divide total economic output by the number of person years worked.

In theory it might be possible to create islands of high productivity. For example if a car plant were to open and put a lot of money into training employees.

However, this is difficult in practice because the plant will be reliant upon a large number of local suppliers (including providers of infrastructure) and trainees will still have been educated there. If the local suppliers aren't highly productive or there are problems with the education system then its difficult to make one small part of the economy much more productive than the rest. That said it isn't impossible, it just takes time.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:41 pm

Thanks - that makes sense.

One thing I would say is that Portuguese education seems pretty good, but the lack of jobs and colossal youth unemployment rate (~24%) means that loads of younger qualified people are currently working elsewhere in Europe.

There is a fair amount of general inefficiency too AFAICT, though.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by TopBadger » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:01 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:11 pm
Boris Johnson warned the EU that Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, would do “whatever it takes” to protect Northern Ireland’s position as part of the UK.
... doing “whatever it takes” seem to mean pleading with the EU to not start imposing its rules at the end of the month.
And ye old phrase "Trusted Trader" makes a comeback... the thing is, particularly considering the behavior of our leadership, can the EU trust the UK?
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Allo V Psycho » Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:07 pm

Australia trade deal 'two narratives' graphic (without numbers, but someone has added them in the comments)

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/14 ... 1729789953

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:10 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:41 pm
Thanks - that makes sense.

One thing I would say is that Portuguese education seems pretty good, but the lack of jobs and colossal youth unemployment rate (~24%) means that loads of younger qualified people are currently working elsewhere in Europe.

There is a fair amount of general inefficiency too AFAICT, though.
One thing about education is that it can be good but still not help too much with productivity. For example, compared to others the German education system isn't that academically focused (eg about 25% of the population aged 15-64 have a degree, which is much lower than in the UK at 40%). But the German system is very good at giving people vocational training which sets them up for high skilled and well paid jobs, and also provides industry with the skills it needs.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by headshot » Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:18 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:41 pm
the German system is very good at giving people vocational training which sets them up for high skilled and well paid jobs, and also provides industry with the skills it needs.
These jobs are also very highly regarded. A Dachdecker (roofer) is a highly skilled trade with a well-connected trade body and its own uniform - a waistcoat.

Waiting staff train for several years - they're not just young people doing a holiday job.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:26 pm

Some more of those deregulations coming our* way, starting with the important stuff:
A report from Taskforce on Innovation, Growth and Regulatory Reform (TIGRR) led by Iain Duncan Smith has described Brexit as a "one-off opportunity" to reduce red tape and set out a new regulatory framework.

The taskforce set out more than 100 recommendations which include the authorisation of GM foods to increase crop yields and a return of imperial measurements.

The report claims the 1985 Weights and Measures Act - which makes it an offence for traders to use imperial without metric - has “long been identified as an example of overly prescriptive EU regulation”. They say the legislation should be amended to scrap such a requirement.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit ... ce-8062334

*your - I'm out ;)
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Gfamily » Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:06 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:10 pm

One thing about education is that it can be good but still not help too much with productivity. For example, compared to others the German education system isn't that academically focused (eg about 25% of the population aged 15-64 have a degree, which is much lower than in the UK at 40%). But the German system is very good at giving people vocational training which sets them up for high skilled and well paid jobs, and also provides industry with the skills it needs.
Is that bit in bold right?
The Wiki has
In 2017, 45.7 % of British aged 25 to 64 attained some form of post-secondary education.
22.6% of British people aged 25 to 64 attained a bachelor's degree or higher.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:59 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:06 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:10 pm

One thing about education is that it can be good but still not help too much with productivity. For example, compared to others the German education system isn't that academically focused (eg about 25% of the population aged 15-64 have a degree, which is much lower than in the UK at 40%). But the German system is very good at giving people vocational training which sets them up for high skilled and well paid jobs, and also provides industry with the skills it needs.
Is that bit in bold right?
The Wiki has
In 2017, 45.7 % of British aged 25 to 64 attained some form of post-secondary education.
22.6% of British people aged 25 to 64 attained a bachelor's degree or higher.
I got the numbers from here: https://www.statista.com/statistics/108 ... ttainment/

But it says tertiary educational attainment, which isn't the same as a degree. Which was foolish of me.

But the point is the same.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Little waster » Thu Jun 17, 2021 7:04 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:26 pm
Some more of those deregulations coming our* way, starting with the important stuff:
A report from Taskforce on Innovation, Growth and Regulatory Reform (TIGRR) led by Iain Duncan Smith has described Brexit as a "one-off opportunity" to reduce red tape and set out a new regulatory framework.

The taskforce set out more than 100 recommendations which include the authorisation of GM foods to increase crop yields and a return of imperial measurements.

The report claims the 1985 Weights and Measures Act - which makes it an offence for traders to use imperial without metric - has “long been identified as an example of overly prescriptive EU regulation”. They say the legislation should be amended to scrap such a requirement.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit ... ce-8062334

*your - I'm out ;)
Well thank f.ck for that, the big hold up in sending these precision-engineered wings to Airbus was we couldn’t work out how many guineas it would cost to buy 2 gross bushels of 1/16th inch gauge copper wire when we could only get it by the furlong pound.

Shame on anyone who has ever suggested Iain and Duncan were a bit thick even for Guardsmen.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by veravista » Thu Jun 17, 2021 7:14 am

I wouldn't worry about Airbus wings, by the time there's a tariff of 2s 3d on the Guinea we wont be making them here.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by shpalman » Thu Jun 17, 2021 7:13 pm

British Corner Shop has set up a warehouse in the EU.

https://blog.britishcornershop.co.uk/20 ... d-to-know/
molto tricky

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by FlammableFlower » Thu Jun 17, 2021 8:21 pm

Not sure if this is the right place... but it's sort of Brexity (well his views re NI in Brexit in particular)... but:

Edwin Poots resigns as leader of the DUP

Well that was a short leadership...

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:16 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Jun 17, 2021 7:13 pm
British Corner Shop has set up a warehouse in the EU.

https://blog.britishcornershop.co.uk/20 ... d-to-know/
I clicked that link while procrastinating, and nearly ordered a load of British crisps. If they also did fry-ups I'd've been sold.

I've gotta say I'd always assumed these expat shops would be based in the continent and import in bulk anyway.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Jun 18, 2021 2:26 pm

Food and drink exports to EU have halved - to Ireland they're down 70%. Cheese especially badly hit.

Head of the Food and Drink Federation reckons it's to do with the new barriers to precisely that trade. What do we think, gang?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57518910
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Opti » Fri Jun 18, 2021 2:49 pm

Still no Richmond sausages here. That seems to be very important to some.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by tom p » Fri Jun 18, 2021 2:59 pm

The expat shop in my neck of the woods has had no cold British produce for some months now. Always Irish versions, which are noticeably inferior, especially the UHT clotted cream. Just disgusting.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by shpalman » Fri Jun 18, 2021 3:45 pm

The supermarket still stocks the red cheddar slices which are made in Lancashire which I put in my sandwiches and burgers. There may have been a bit of an interruption to supply at the beginning of the year though.

I've been able to buy Heinz baked beans and Quaker oats (in the cardboard box, which is double the quantity for the same price as compared to the tin) from the Asian shop I go to.
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