Brexit Consequences

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
Locked
plodder
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2981
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:23 am

sheldrake wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:52 pm
Quick survey; how many of the things you were scared of in 2017 turned out to be true?

How's BMW in Oxford doing, for example?
The slow puncture to our economy has certainly begun, as has increased parochialism and a brain drain. Imports and exports have been hit and we’re still in the transition period. Many important protections are on the hit list. NI is turning into a sh.t show. There are queues at the airports. There is still no plan. The UK’s moderating voice against EU centralisation has been lost and the rapacious bastards in power in the UK now have a free hand due to the populist approach taken by Leave. Empty shelves and inflation were also areas of concern. Hadn’t predicted lorry drivers being told to take speed but there you go.

User avatar
bjn
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2915
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by bjn » Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:53 am

Honda’s in Swindon, which was at the time the UKs 4th largest car factory, shut in July this year. They cited Brexit as one of the main reasons. So yeah, it’s directly leading to car factory closures and unemployment.

One back at the ever dissembling Sheldrake, what have we gained that has made up for the chaos? Ineffable “freedom from Brussels” will be considered pure dissembling.

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:50 am

plodder wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:23 am
sheldrake wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:52 pm
Quick survey; how many of the things you were scared of in 2017 turned out to be true?

How's BMW in Oxford doing, for example?
The slow puncture to our economy has certainly begun, as has increased parochialism and a brain drain. Imports and exports have been hit and we’re still in the transition period.
I see no sign of a brain drain in London technology companies, and net migration to the UK is higher than it was in 2016.
https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/r ... om-the-uk/

Our economy is growing faster than Germany's and the EU average: https://tradingeconomics.com/country-li ... rowth-rate

as recently as 2019 our exports were higher than they were in 2016 https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfi ... 19/Summary (I haven't found 2020 data yet)

I don't see evidence for what you're saying about exports and a brain drain are true, but I don't know how to measure 'parochialism' so that could be true.

Empty shelves and inflation were also areas of concern. Hadn’t predicted lorry drivers being told to take speed but there you go.
Empty shelves not a thing where I live, and inflation is definitely about printing money to hand out during lockdown rather than leaving the EU.
Haven't been to an airport in a while, but I suspect it's got more to do with checking vaccine cards and covid test results at the moment.

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:53 am

bjn wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:53 am
One back at the ever dissembling Sheldrake, what have we gained that has made up for the chaos? Ineffable “freedom from Brussels” will be considered pure dissembling.
Our vaccine program was faster than other EU countries'. Our economy is growing faster than the EU average and Germany's. I don't agree with Plodder that all of the regulations which will be abandoned or rewritten are 'important protections', and we have much more democratic accountability over what is done now.

I think your retort about 'freedom from Brussels' just highlights the gulf that exists between us in values. I think being able to vote policy makers out of office has value in and of itself, I genuinely don't analyse all these things through a lens of short term economic utility. If I did that then I'd be recommending we remodel the economy on Singapore or some other super-efficient Asian technocracy with very low taxes.

Lew Dolby
Catbabel
Posts: 652
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:59 pm
Location: Shropshire - Welsh Borders

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Lew Dolby » Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:10 am

sheldrake wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:50 am

Our economy is growing faster than Germany's and the EU average: https://tradingeconomics.com/country-li ... rowth-rate
Quoting percentage figures for thing like this can be totally misleading.

If, as an extreme example, the UK economy had grown fron 50% of what it was in, say, 2010, to 52% over a year, that'd be shown as a 4% year-on-year growth. If some other, Germany perhaps, had grown in the last year from 120% to 122% of its 2010 size, that would be a less than 2% growth. I think anyone sensible (eg not politicians) wouldn't claim the UK economy was the healthier.
WOULD CUSTOMERS PLEASE REFRAIN FROM SITTING ON THE COUNTER BY THE BACON SLICER - AS WE'RE GETTING A LITTLE BEHIND IN OUR ORDERS.

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:54 am

Lew Dolby wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:10 am
sheldrake wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:50 am

Our economy is growing faster than Germany's and the EU average: https://tradingeconomics.com/country-li ... rowth-rate
Quoting percentage figures for thing like this can be totally misleading.

If, as an extreme example, the UK economy had grown fron 50% of what it was in, say, 2010, to 52% over a year, that'd be shown as a 4% year-on-year growth. If some other, Germany perhaps, had grown in the last year from 120% to 122% of its 2010 size, that would be a less than 2% growth. I think anyone sensible (eg not politicians) wouldn't claim the UK economy was the healthier.
I think if we're making claims about Brexit, then looking at figures since 2016 would make the most sense. I also think that if our economy is growing faster than the EU average and Germany right now, it suggests that 'sick man of Europe as a result of something that recently happened' claims do not make sense.

tom p
After Pie
Posts: 1876
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:14 pm
Location: the low countries

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by tom p » Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:59 am

sheldrake wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:53 am
bjn wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:53 am
One back at the ever dissembling Sheldrake, what have we gained that has made up for the chaos? Ineffable “freedom from Brussels” will be considered pure dissembling.
Our vaccine program was faster than other EU countries'.
That was literally nothing to do with Brexit & anyone who thinks it was is a f.cking moron.
Oh, look who I'm replying to.

The MHRA approved the Pfizer vaccine (within an indecently short 24 hours, which fed a lot of vaccine hesitancy in the UK) using EU rules while the UK was still part of the EU regulatory system. The head of the MHRA, June Raine, stated as much at the time, clearly and unequivocally. This isn't a matter of opinion or debate, it's a fact.
The documents approving it were published online and an actually honest or inquisitive person is able to view them and see for themselves.
Hungary approved SinoVac & Sputnik using the same rules.
The vaccine purchasing scheme was entirely voluntary & Hungary among others have bought some vaccines outwith it, as well as within it.

Lew Dolby
Catbabel
Posts: 652
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:59 pm
Location: Shropshire - Welsh Borders

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Lew Dolby » Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:18 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:54 am
Lew Dolby wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:10 am
sheldrake wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:50 am

Our economy is growing faster than Germany's and the EU average: https://tradingeconomics.com/country-li ... rowth-rate
Quoting percentage figures for thing like this can be totally misleading.

If, as an extreme example, the UK economy had grown fron 50% of what it was in, say, 2010, to 52% over a year, that'd be shown as a 4% year-on-year growth. If some other, Germany perhaps, had grown in the last year from 120% to 122% of its 2010 size, that would be a less than 2% growth. I think anyone sensible (eg not politicians) wouldn't claim the UK economy was the healthier.
I think if we're making claims about Brexit, then looking at figures since 2016 would make the most sense. I also think that if our economy is growing faster than the EU average and Germany right now, it suggests that 'sick man of Europe as a result of something that recently happened' claims do not make sense.
The year is irrelevant. I'm simply saying that relative stats can be misleading.
WOULD CUSTOMERS PLEASE REFRAIN FROM SITTING ON THE COUNTER BY THE BACON SLICER - AS WE'RE GETTING A LITTLE BEHIND IN OUR ORDERS.

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:23 pm

In some circumstances, but I don't think the data supports the view that Britain's economy has been crippled or made uncompetitive by leaving the EU.

User avatar
bjn
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2915
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by bjn » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:05 pm

Lew Dolby wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:10 am
sheldrake wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:50 am

Our economy is growing faster than Germany's and the EU average: https://tradingeconomics.com/country-li ... rowth-rate
Quoting percentage figures for thing like this can be totally misleading.

If, as an extreme example, the UK economy had grown fron 50% of what it was in, say, 2010, to 52% over a year, that'd be shown as a 4% year-on-year growth. If some other, Germany perhaps, had grown in the last year from 120% to 122% of its 2010 size, that would be a less than 2% growth. I think anyone sensible (eg not politicians) wouldn't claim the UK economy was the healthier.
The UK also had a harder COVID dip, so there was more to grow back from. So meh.

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:14 pm

It also grew back faster because we were able to do a faster vaccine rollout. UK exports and skilled immigration continued to grow after the 2016 vote.
The disaster theories being promulgated by the Cameron govt, Bank of England officials and some broadsheet newspapers have largely been proven untrue.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Princess POW
Posts: 7057
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:33 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:50 am
I see no sign of a brain drain in London technology companies, and net migration to the UK is higher than it was in 2016.
https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/r ... om-the-uk/
There was a massive drop in migration to the UK in 2020. However, that was obviously affected by Covid, so it'll be difficult to know the effect of the end of the transition period.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... ember-2020

IvanV
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2660
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 11:12 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by IvanV » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:37 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:50 am
I see no sign of a brain drain in London technology companies, and net migration to the UK is higher than it was in 2016.
https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/r ... om-the-uk/

Our economy is growing faster than Germany's and the EU average: https://tradingeconomics.com/country-li ... rowth-rate

as recently as 2019 our exports were higher than they were in 2016 https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfi ... 19/Summary (I haven't found 2020 data yet)

I don't see evidence for what you're saying about exports and a brain drain are true, but I don't know how to measure 'parochialism' so that could be true.
The migration data end in 2019, and show a large reduction in immigration to the UK for purposes of work in the 4 years up to 2019, if you go to the bottom of the page. We have no data post end 2019, and of course moving people around has been unusually difficult since end 2019 because pandemic.

The GDP figures are meaningless, because they are all about recovery from whatever happened in the pandemic dip just now. We had a larger dip than Germany, so will naturally have a larger recovery, even if the net effect over the pandemic is a larger reduction. Let's compare the actual GDP per capita amount, not annual growth rates, which can be so misleading.

2019 exports were inflated because people were trying hard to move stuff before the Brexit Moment, in correct anticipation of immediate difficulties in moving stuff after the Moment.

So I don't see this data suffices to support your point.

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:35 pm

IvanV wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:37 pm

The migration data end in 2019, and show a large reduction in immigration to the UK for purposes of work in the 4 years up to 2019, if you go to the bottom of the page. We have no data post end 2019, and of course moving people around has been unusually difficult since end 2019 because pandemic.
I think you missed this bit in big letters

"Study and work are the most common reasons for immigration to the UK, but their contribution to net migration cannot currently be accurately calculated"

I work for an international company constantly recruiting in London, so I also see our own hiring pipeline. We're not having problems here.
The GDP figures are meaningless, because they are all about recovery from whatever happened in the pandemic dip just now.
But the speed we recover at is meaningful.
We had a larger dip than Germany, so will naturally have a larger recovery, even if the net effect over the pandemic is a larger reduction. Let's compare the actual GDP per capita amount, not annual growth rates, which can be so misleading.
But GDP per capita is dependent on years of prior growth before any Brexit effect could possibly have happened. I think this is an unreasonable and inaccurate way of assessing the impact of Brexit.
2019 exports were inflated because people were trying hard to move stuff before the Brexit Moment, in correct anticipation of immediate difficulties in moving stuff after the Moment.
This is an unsupported hypothesis. Honestly, I think you're clutching at straws to avoid facing the reality; all that scary stuff the Independent told you about Brexit was mostly not true.

IvanV
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2660
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 11:12 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by IvanV » Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:23 pm

I shan't argue with you again. I've learned there is no point.

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:31 pm

Not if you're going to keep bringing a potato peeler to a gunfight, no.

User avatar
bjn
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2915
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by bjn » Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:04 pm

IvanV wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:23 pm
I shan't argue with you again. I've learned there is no point.
This is a wise move.

Millennie Al
After Pie
Posts: 1621
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:02 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Millennie Al » Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:39 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:53 am
I think being able to vote policy makers out of office has value in and of itself,
We don't get any more of that by leaving the EU.

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:48 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:39 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:53 am
I think being able to vote policy makers out of office has value in and of itself,
We don't get any more of that by leaving the EU.
We still have the House of Lords which needs to be dissolved or shaken up seriously, but most of our executive is made up of commons MPs. EU Commissioners are all appointees, selected by the head of the commission who only stands for a secret vote, and that person usually runs unopposed. It's impossible to get rid of individual commissioners, the EU parliament has to vote by a 2/3rds majority to get rid of the whole commission. There's just no real individual accountability. Bojo can just lose an election by a couple of constituencies and be gone. He's much more scared of pissing to many of you off than any EU commissioner would ever be.

User avatar
Trinucleus
Catbabel
Posts: 985
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:45 pm

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Trinucleus » Sat Sep 18, 2021 6:58 pm

We're in Greece and I can't watch Sky Go on my tablet

Millennie Al
After Pie
Posts: 1621
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:02 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Millennie Al » Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:52 am

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:48 am
There's just no real individual accountability. Bojo can just lose an election by a couple of constituencies and be gone. He's much more scared of pissing to many of you off than any EU commissioner would ever be.
That is quite obviously false. Considering what he has been doing since gaining power he clearly holds us in complete contempt and knows that he is completely beyond accountability.

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 19, 2021 7:16 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:52 am
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:48 am
There's just no real individual accountability. Bojo can just lose an election by a couple of constituencies and be gone. He's much more scared of pissing to many of you off than any EU commissioner would ever be.
That is quite obviously false. Considering what he has been doing since gaining power he clearly holds us in complete contempt and knows that he is completely beyond accountability.
I think this is hyperbole. He’s done a lot of what the electorate wanted him to do, its just that a lot of the electorate dont agree with you. You’ll be getting a vote again soon, its just that having a vote doesnt guarantee your opinions prevail.

nezumi
Dorkwood
Posts: 1164
Joined: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:43 pm
Location: UK

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by nezumi » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:55 am

Trinucleus wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 6:58 pm
We're in Greece and I can't watch Sky Go on my tablet
Of course you can - get a VPN on there :)

ETA: you'd have to watch it through the tablet browser rather than the app IIRC.
Non fui. Fui. Non sum. Non curo.

sheldrake
After Pie
Posts: 1819
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:17 am

nezumi wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:55 am
Trinucleus wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 6:58 pm
We're in Greece and I can't watch Sky Go on my tablet
Of course you can - get a VPN on there :)

ETA: you'd have to watch it through the tablet browser rather than the app IIRC.
Not necessarily. There's no reason why an app cannot connect through a VPN.

User avatar
Cardinal Fang
Snowbonk
Posts: 421
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:42 pm

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Cardinal Fang » Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:53 pm

NordVPN is very good. Not been anywhere where I can't access UK sites if I want to

(Likewise in the UK never been able to not access US versions of Netflix, Disney Plus etc)

CF
Image

Locked