Brexit Consequences

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sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:56 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:52 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:29 pm
Did everybody read the Guardian article giving Junker's commentary on how the EU Comission under Van Der Leyen was making a mess of vaccination rollout? All of you have, I hope? Superb.

Two questions: -

1) Why did so many major EU countries (the majority) get impacted by that mess? I would like people to address what actually happened here.
They treated it as a normal piece of procurement: wait until you know the product works, then negotiate a good price. Whereas the UK signed expensive contracts with several vaccine producers much earlier. Purely in financial terms I think that the UK had the better strategy as the benefit to the economy of opening sooner could be assumed to have outweighed the higher cost of vaccine procurement.
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:29 pm

2) If the UK had been in the EU at the time, do you think we would have been part of that mess too, or no?
The above examples of Hungary and Slovakia show that the UK could have approved and procured vaccines independently. Whether it would have depends upon who was in charge in your alternate history. Johnson probably would have, May probably wouldn’t have had the imagination.
Okay, I think these are reasonable points. My unprovable belief is that had we been still part of the EU at this point our civil servants would've lobbied whoever was PM that 'bargaining as a collective' made most sense, having seen how some senior civil servants behaved during EU negotiations.

Why do you think so few EU countries took the route that you think Johnson would have?

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Woodchopper
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:58 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:53 pm
shpalman wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:07 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 8:44 pm


There's a touching warmth and generosity of spirit undernearth right there. Well done. I don't think it's actually remoaners or brexiters causing supply problems, mind you. Covid lockdown rules and formerly inadequate pay I reckon. These supply issues are showing up all over the world https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... on-squeeze
That link is from July and it mentions semiconductors not food.
Indeed and that is related to Covid, with demand increasing in places like China and the US and also lots of far-East assembly areas being hit by Covid - at least based on my experience
Yes. There have been supply chain problems in the rest of the developed world - eg microchips, timber, building materials. They have also affected the UK.

The difference is that Britain is the only place with widespread food shortages. Everywhere else the supermarkets are like normal.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by jimbob » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:01 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:58 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:53 pm
shpalman wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:07 pm

That link is from July and it mentions semiconductors not food.
Indeed and that is related to Covid, with demand increasing in places like China and the US and also lots of far-East assembly areas being hit by Covid - at least based on my experience
Yes. There have been supply chain problems in the rest of the developed world - eg microchips, timber, building materials. They have also affected the UK.

The difference is that Britain is the only place with widespread food shortages. Everywhere else the supermarkets are like normal.
Indeed. I should have italicised the "that"
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:05 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:58 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:53 pm
shpalman wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:07 pm

That link is from July and it mentions semiconductors not food.
Indeed and that is related to Covid, with demand increasing in places like China and the US and also lots of far-East assembly areas being hit by Covid - at least based on my experience
Yes. There have been supply chain problems in the rest of the developed world - eg microchips, timber, building materials. They have also affected the UK.

The difference is that Britain is the only place with widespread food shortages. Everywhere else the supermarkets are like normal.
We know that the trucker shortages exist across Europe. Supermarkets are normal where I live in the UK too. Can you point me at an objective data source comparing food availability by country? Much of this discussion of shortages has relied on anecdotes and journalistic snippets so far (and I when I produce them for other countries people say "that's the wrong month'" or simillar).

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Woodchopper
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:06 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:56 pm

Why do you think so few EU countries took the route that you think Johnson would have?
Johnson took a big risk. He could have ended up having signed billions of pounds worth of contracts for vaccines that didn’t work. Most of the other EU governments preferred to play it safer.

Also, your article is from March. Supplies to the EU member states rapidly caught up in the following months. I can’t be bothered to look up the numbers, but as far as I remember EU states ended up being about 6-8 weeks behind the UK. As of September some have a higher percentage of the population vaccinated. In those where it’s lower the problem is with people not wanting to be vaccinated rather than lack of supply.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:09 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:06 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:56 pm

Why do you think so few EU countries took the route that you think Johnson would have?
Johnson took a big risk. He could have ended up having signed billions of pounds worth of contracts for vaccines that didn’t work. Most of the other EU governments preferred to play it safer.

Also, your article is from March. Supplies to the EU member states rapidly caught up in the following months. I can’t be bothered to look up the numbers, but as far as I remember EU states ended up being about 6-8 weeks behind the UK. As of September some have a higher percentage of the population vaccinated. In those where it’s lower the problem is with people not wanting to be vaccinated rather than lack of supply.
Would you have been happy taking an extra 2 months to get our most vulnerable vaccinated? I suspect if we'd been 2 months slower than the rest of the EU then this thread would be all about how leaving the EU had made our vaccine program slower. Don't you think?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:23 pm

The only reason this thread is currently about the pace of vaccination is because you're trying to divert from the mess you made of your earlier points about other things. Brexit didn't affect our ability to vaccinate. There's a great big subform to discuss Covid if you want to make a mess in there instead.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:36 pm

plodder wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:23 pm
The only reason this thread is currently about the pace of vaccination is because you're trying to divert from the mess you made of your earlier points about other things.
Funny that. I think we're only talking about manufactured fuel panics to move the thread on from the abortive discussion of UK exports and financial services growth :)

I've demonstrated with good sources that trucker shortages exist across Europe. I've shown food shortages and other supply chain problems globally. The reason these things are happening is significantly due to the impact of Covid lockdowns on the pipeline of new drivers being trained, isolation orders etc.. The pace of Covid vaccination was raised because somebody actually quasi-conceded there were other factors and then said 'well Brexit inhibited our ability to adapt'. I think all those points stand.
Brexit didn't affect our ability to vaccinate.
Even Jean Claude Junker thinks the UK's programme ran better than the procurement programme run by the EU comission. The only answer to that so far has been 'it was theoretically possible not to take part in the EU programme whilst still being an EU member', but nobody has explained why so many EU member states took part in that.

Is 'look it was theoretically possible to avoid taking part in the disaster run by the Commission without leaving the EU' really your best defence of the commission's programme?

wowzers.
Last edited by sheldrake on Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:39 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:09 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:06 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:56 pm

Why do you think so few EU countries took the route that you think Johnson would have?
Johnson took a big risk. He could have ended up having signed billions of pounds worth of contracts for vaccines that didn’t work. Most of the other EU governments preferred to play it safer.

Also, your article is from March. Supplies to the EU member states rapidly caught up in the following months. I can’t be bothered to look up the numbers, but as far as I remember EU states ended up being about 6-8 weeks behind the UK. As of September some have a higher percentage of the population vaccinated. In those where it’s lower the problem is with people not wanting to be vaccinated rather than lack of supply.
Would you have been happy taking an extra 2 months to get our most vulnerable vaccinated? I suspect if we'd been 2 months slower than the rest of the EU then this thread would be all about how leaving the EU had made our vaccine program slower. Don't you think?
I think that vaccination went better in the UK.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:41 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:39 pm
I think that vaccination went better in the UK.
Okay then. Lets look for hard data on the supply issues being reported (I really think some of the posts in the other thread are relevant here)

plodder
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:43 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:36 pm
plodder wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:23 pm
The only reason this thread is currently about the pace of vaccination is because you're trying to divert from the mess you made of your earlier points about other things.
I've demonstrated with good sources that trucker shortages exist across Europe(1). I've shown food shortages and other supply chain problems globally(2). The reason these things are happening is significantly (3) due to the impact of Covid lockdowns on the pipeline of new drivers being trained, isolation orders etc.. The pace of Covid vaccination was raised because somebody actually quasi-conceded there were other factors (4) and then said 'well Brexit inhibited our ability to adapt'. I think all those points stand. (5)
(1) you know, the problem with engaging with you is that it only encourages you
(2) so I won't
(3) and neither should anyone else, unless they can keep it for the lols only
(4) which is all that you're doing
(5) so whatever

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:48 pm

No I've actually gone and dug out data, and I actually read the sources I cite before I post them. I wish you would.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by jdc » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:56 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:05 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:58 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:53 pm


Indeed and that is related to Covid, with demand increasing in places like China and the US and also lots of far-East assembly areas being hit by Covid - at least based on my experience
Yes. There have been supply chain problems in the rest of the developed world - eg microchips, timber, building materials. They have also affected the UK.

The difference is that Britain is the only place with widespread food shortages. Everywhere else the supermarkets are like normal.
We know that the trucker shortages exist across Europe. Supermarkets are normal where I live in the UK too. Can you point me at an objective data source comparing food availability by country? Much of this discussion of shortages has relied on anecdotes and journalistic snippets so far (and I when I produce them for other countries people say "that's the wrong month'" or simillar).
Good luck finding an objective data source comparing food availability by country. I've got an ONS survey for the UK 8-19 Sept, but I can't find anything for other countries to compare it to. I can't look at previous ONS surveys to make any historical comparisons either as this seems to be the first time they've asked this question.
ONS wrote:Around 1 in 6 (18%) adults reported they had not been able to buy essential food items as they were not available at some point during the past two weeks; a quarter (25%) reported they had not been able to buy other non-essential food items, and a smaller proportion reported they had not been able to buy medicine (4%) or fuel (4%); around 6 in 10 (61%) reported that everything they needed had been available to buy.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:57 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:48 pm
I've actually gone and done the bare minimum, and I don't actually read other people's posts before I decide to annoy them, and only then do I bother to read them, and I wish you would keep replying to me, because I don't have anything better to do.
see ya ignored person

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by lpm » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:58 pm

The big difference was the Uk's 12 week gap vs 3 weeks in the EU.

That accelerated the initial jump in protection for over 50s. A very large number of partially protected people turned out better than a smaller number of fully protected.

That was the Tony Blair policy - not his idea of course but he pushed it. Nothing to do with Brexit.

The UK over 50s program was done by Easter, about 7 or 8 weeks ahead of EU countries. The UK traded that in for earlier unlockdown rather than lower Covid deaths.
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sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:07 pm

plodder wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:57 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:48 pm
I've actually gone and done the bare minimum, and I don't actually read other people's posts before I decide to annoy them, and only then do I bother to read them, and I wish you would keep replying to me, because I don't have anything better to do.
see ya ignored person
I read your posts, and your sources. I think you're confusing genuine disagreement with incomprehension or trolling. You've literally defined 'not agreeing with' as 'deliberate attempt to annoy' several times now. I think you just get irritable when presented with opinions outside of a certain range.

An example is when you said 'the Guardian doesn' think it's all down to brexit' after several other posts from the Guardian blaming it on Brexit. The link you then posted was this 'https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ain-crisis' which contains a series of calls from industry PR staff and Labour politicians for the govt. to reform immigration policy.

Most of your other contributions on the topic have been weird meta-diatribes about why I'm posting (e.g. viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2058&start=1025#p96305).. rather than actual engagement on the subject. You think you're engaging when you're just being dismissive and sarcastic without posting relevant content, a lot of the time.
Last edited by sheldrake on Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:18 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:12 pm

lpm wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:58 pm
The big difference was the Uk's 12 week gap vs 3 weeks in the EU.

That accelerated the initial jump in protection for over 50s. A very large number of partially protected people turned out better than a smaller number of fully protected.

That was the Tony Blair policy - not his idea of course but he pushed it. Nothing to do with Brexit.

The UK over 50s program was done by Easter, about 7 or 8 weeks ahead of EU countries. The UK traded that in for earlier unlockdown rather than lower Covid deaths.
The UK took significantly larger volumes of vaccine delivery early on. Do you remember the EU commission attempting to impound them because of how unfair they thought it was? Even Junker agrees with me here.

Covid deaths under 50 have been a very low percentage of the whole. I think you should consider the non-Covid deaths prevented by earlier easing of lockdown restrictions here.
Last edited by sheldrake on Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by lpm » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:18 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:12 pm
Covid deaths under 50 have been a very low percentage of the whole.
Thanks, never knew that, someone should have mentioned it.
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sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:19 pm

Then perhaps you should consider it when you frame the tradeoff of earlier vaccination for the over 50s vs reducing things which may be a higher risk for the under 50s.

A comparison of suicide risk vs covid risks for the under 50s, for example?

Here's to your nonsense about 3 weeks vs 12 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... on-vaccine

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:43 pm

jdc wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:56 pm

ONS wrote:Around 1 in 6 (18%) adults reported they had not been able to buy essential food items as they were not available at some point during the past two weeks; a quarter (25%) reported they had not been able to buy other non-essential food items, and a smaller proportion reported they had not been able to buy medicine (4%) or fuel (4%); around 6 in 10 (61%) reported that everything they needed had been available to buy.
Does this change with time?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Allo V Psycho » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:50 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:48 pm
No I've actually gone and dug out data, and I actually read the sources I cite before I post them. I wish you would.
No, actually you don't. You cite media articles and press releases as if they were original research, and if you have read them, then you misrepresent them.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=565&hilit=allo+v+p ... 250#p12884

I think you do this deliberately, and I think this costs the forum wise and informed people such as Ken.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:55 pm

Allo V Psycho wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:50 pm

No, actually you don't.
Yes, actually I do. The rest of your post has nothing to do with Brexit Consequences. Perhaps you could vent at me in 'The Pit' ?

Get back on topic or be ignored.
Last edited by sheldrake on Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by jdc » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:56 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:43 pm
jdc wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:56 pm

ONS wrote:Around 1 in 6 (18%) adults reported they had not been able to buy essential food items as they were not available at some point during the past two weeks; a quarter (25%) reported they had not been able to buy other non-essential food items, and a smaller proportion reported they had not been able to buy medicine (4%) or fuel (4%); around 6 in 10 (61%) reported that everything they needed had been available to buy.
Does this change with time?
this seems to be the first time they've asked this question.

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:20 pm

jdc wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:56 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:43 pm
jdc wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:56 pm


Does this change with time?
this seems to be the first time they've asked this question.
It seems like we're stuck with anecdotes in that case. It's like this in my area https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/wes ... d-21665383 (I don't live in yorkshire, further south in the east midlands)

How is it where you live ?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Chris Preston » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:08 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:48 pm
No I've actually gone and dug out data, and I actually read the sources I cite before I post them. I wish you would.
Like posting a photo of the toilet paper shelves being empty in a Sydney supermarket as evidence of EU trucker shortages.

The problem you have is that your attitude to sources is exactly the same as that used by anti-vaxxers. So long as the "source" on the surface supports the position that you have previously decided, it does not matter how crappy the "source" is, it does not matter whether the "source" actually supports your point, etc. You are then going to fight to the death about how good your research is. It is exactly the same style of argument I see over and over again from anti-vaxxers.

Your claims of researching any topic you write about are laughable and need to be treated the same way as claims made by anti-vaxxers.
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