Brexit Consequences

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by WFJ » Mon Jun 14, 2021 9:10 pm

plodder wrote:
Mon Jun 14, 2021 9:03 pm
cause it’s just talk. The rhetoric isn’t for the EU. They’re grown ups and they also understand the rules of the game.
Of course. But then that does not make this mince war rhetoric a negotiating tool. Who is Boris negotiating with?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:19 pm

It’s about two things. Firstly, winning over the domestic audience. Secondly, this makes compromise with the EU more difficult from a political perspective if the domestic audience won’t buy it. So a small amount of wriggle room has been created.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:28 pm

the wriggle room won’t help with the mince war. but it will help further down the line, when the uk public are sick to the back teeth of the drip feed of EU wars over mince, sausage, shellfish, (take your pick for the next few)

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:35 pm

So this will be interesting https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57478412

Oz trade deal will allow cheap beef produced with banned pesticides and additives into the GB market. The EU will definitely not want it going further than that. Which suggests some sort of something will be necessary in the Irish sea, it's on the tip of my tongue.

Still, great news for all those brexit-voting farmers who really stuck it to the wealthy elites there.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:37 pm

plodder wrote:
Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:28 pm
the wriggle room won’t help with the mince war. but it will help further down the line, when the uk public are sick to the back teeth of the drip feed of EU wars over mince, sausage, shellfish, (take your pick for the next few)
Ah I think I get it - you're postulating a long-term strategy to increase domestic dislike of the EU (and therefore support for the Tories) to win elections and/or allow the Tories to push for even further divergence from the EU?
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:40 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:37 pm
plodder wrote:
Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:28 pm
the wriggle room won’t help with the mince war. but it will help further down the line, when the uk public are sick to the back teeth of the drip feed of EU wars over mince, sausage, shellfish, (take your pick for the next few)
Ah I think I get it - you're postulating a long-term strategy to increase domestic dislike of the EU (and therefore support for the Tories) to win elections and/or allow the Tories to push for even further divergence from the EU?
That’s the first bit. The second bit is to go to the EU and say “your terms are politically unacceptable to our electorate and cannot be accepted. How’s about these more generous ones?”

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by JQH » Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:43 am

plodder wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:40 am
. The second bit is to go to the EU and say “your terms are politically unacceptable to our electorate and cannot be accepted. How’s about these more generous ones?”
To which the EU replies: "Why the f.ck did you agree to them then?"
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:48 am

JQH wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:43 am
plodder wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:40 am
. The second bit is to go to the EU and say “your terms are politically unacceptable to our electorate and cannot be accepted. How’s about these more generous ones?”
To which the EU replies: "Why the f.ck did you agree to them then?"
To which Frost replied "we need a little more time, you don't want bombs going off, do you?"

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:49 am

Australia are obviously not concerned about the NI border issue and how that might impact trade with them: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... on-tuesday

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by shpalman » Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:51 am

plodder wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:49 am
Australia are obviously not concerned about the NI border issue and how that might impact trade with them: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... on-tuesday
Why should they be concerned? Getting something from the UK which turns out to have been smuggled in from the EU was never the issue.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Gfamily » Tue Jun 15, 2021 8:21 am

plodder wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:49 am
Australia are obviously not concerned about the NI border issue and how that might impact trade with them: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... on-tuesday
And of course it represents a divergence from compliance with EU standards. Taraa!
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:02 am

shpalman wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:51 am
plodder wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:49 am
Australia are obviously not concerned about the NI border issue and how that might impact trade with them: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... on-tuesday
Why should they be concerned? Getting something from the UK which turns out to have been smuggled in from the EU was never the issue.
As for the rest of the world there is also the question as to whether NI is seen as a special issue that isn't relevant to trade talks, or whether UK perfidy there means they trust the UK less in other negotiations.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:09 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:02 am
shpalman wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:51 am
plodder wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:49 am
Australia are obviously not concerned about the NI border issue and how that might impact trade with them: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... on-tuesday
Why should they be concerned? Getting something from the UK which turns out to have been smuggled in from the EU was never the issue.
As for the rest of the world there is also the question as to whether NI is seen as a special issue that isn't relevant to trade talks, or whether UK perfidy there means they trust the UK less in other negotiations.
UK perfidy is only applying to the problems around the NI border, which everyone knows is intractable. Trade negotiators aren't thick.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:21 am

plodder wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:09 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:02 am
shpalman wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:51 am

Why should they be concerned? Getting something from the UK which turns out to have been smuggled in from the EU was never the issue.
As for the rest of the world there is also the question as to whether NI is seen as a special issue that isn't relevant to trade talks, or whether UK perfidy there means they trust the UK less in other negotiations.
UK perfidy is only applying to the problems around the NI border, which everyone knows is intractable. Trade negotiators aren't thick.
I'm not sure how it'll play out. One consequence may be that other states want much more to be specified in agreements rather than leaving things up to goodwill. If so the agreements will still happen, but they'll take longer.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by IvanV » Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:59 am

plodder wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:40 am
... go to the EU and say “your terms are politically unacceptable to our electorate and cannot be accepted. How’s about these more generous ones?”
The Greeks tried that. They even had a referendum to prove it. It did not persuade the EU to offer more generous terms. In fact the effect of delay was that the Greece was in even more of a mess, and the EU worsened their terms. And on the edge of the abyss, the Greeks took them.

The Argentineans also tried it on the IMF. They demonstrated it by getting through 5 presidents in a month, as presidents who indicated willingness to accept the terms could not sustain their position. Improved terms were not forthcoming. Argentina refused them and fell into the abyss.

Britain isn't sitting on the edge of an abyss, well not of the depth of the Greeks and Argentineans. We don't know what retaliation the EU has in mind. But even if it were tearing up the entire trade treaty it wouldn't be a Greek/Argentinean depth of abyss. I don't think the EU is willing to impose a hard border in Ireland, which would be the logical punishment.

My suspicion is that Johnson will take the punishments on the chin. Northern Ireland's boundaries will become some kind of a frozen contradiction with potential for abuse. Eventually people will have to find alternative backstop methods of self-protection if the quantity of abuse of them gets too large.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:12 am

IvanV wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:59 am
plodder wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:40 am
... go to the EU and say “your terms are politically unacceptable to our electorate and cannot be accepted. How’s about these more generous ones?”
The Greeks tried that. They even had a referendum to prove it. It did not persuade the EU to offer more generous terms. In fact the effect of delay was that the Greece was in even more of a mess, and the EU worsened their terms. And on the edge of the abyss, the Greeks took them.

The Argentineans also tried it on the IMF. They demonstrated it by getting through 5 presidents in a month, as presidents who indicated willingness to accept the terms could not sustain their position. Improved terms were not forthcoming. Argentina refused them and fell into the abyss.

Britain isn't sitting on the edge of an abyss, well not of the depth of the Greeks and Argentineans. We don't know what retaliation the EU has in mind. But even if it were tearing up the entire trade treaty it wouldn't be a Greek/Argentinean depth of abyss. I don't think the EU is willing to impose a hard border in Ireland, which would be the logical punishment.

My suspicion is that Johnson will take the punishments on the chin. Northern Ireland's boundaries will become some kind of a frozen contradiction with potential for abuse. Eventually people will have to find alternative backstop methods of self-protection if the quantity of abuse of them gets too large.
It's not proportionate to compare defaulting on hundreds of millions of euros / dollars of debt and announcing you'll carry on importing mince for a few months whilst things calm down. Frost is clever to trivialise this. If there are punishments it will be perceived domestically as the EU being punitive and all we'll see is more John Bull rhetoric from Johnson and chums.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:13 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:21 am
plodder wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:09 am

UK perfidy is only applying to the problems around the NI border, which everyone knows is intractable. Trade negotiators aren't thick.
I'm not sure how it'll play out. One consequence may be that other states want much more to be specified in agreements rather than leaving things up to goodwill. If so the agreements will still happen, but they'll take longer.
These things are hundreds of pages long anyway. There's not a lot of room for goodwill in the important bits.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:28 am

Yeah, it's not really an intractable problem. It's just "no sausages".

The UK is unilaterally breaking a peacekeeping arrangement they signed up to a few months ago. Which weakens the UK's position if they want to apply pressure anywhere else.

There's loads of borders where you can't cross with sausages. It's not a big deal. This is cakeism.

I'm sure the EU can find agricultural products to ban or slap tariffs on that overwhelmingly come from the mainland without affecting NI too much.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:29 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:28 am
Yeah, it's not really an intractable problem. It's just "no sausages".

The UK is unilaterally breaking a peacekeeping arrangement they signed up to a few months ago. Which weakens the UK's position if they want to apply pressure anywhere else.

There's loads of borders where you can't cross with sausages. It's not a big deal. This is cakeism.

I'm sure the EU can find agricultural products to ban or slap tariffs on that overwhelmingly come from the mainland without affecting NI too much.
No, the NI border issue doesn't have a solution.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:41 am

What would be the big problem if NI stopped importing sausages from the mainland? A small increase in sausage prices, which could perhaps be offset by changes to subsidies or taxation.

That's the solution the UK chose, anyway.

Would sausage origin (and possibly price) really lead to violence, if the UK government was trying to calm things down rather than inflame tensions?
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by veravista » Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:44 am

Wrong. The NI border problem has been solved, agreed and now ratified by both parties, or have you missed that? It's in the Irish Sea. The 'sausage wars' are a direct result of UK Gov signing it but not understanding (or more likely hoping nobody notices) and is entirely predictable.

Or are you saying that they should be more flexible and allow anything in? We were caught by a sniffer dog going into the US with an old apple core that my 2 year old daughter had secreted in her back pack, surely they could have been a bit more flexible? (they were actually quite understanding about it)

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Gfamily » Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:45 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:41 am
What would be the big problem if NI stopped importing sausages from the mainland? A small increase in sausage prices, which could perhaps be offset by changes to subsidies or taxation.

That's the solution the UK chose, anyway.

Would sausage origin (and possibly price) really lead to violence, if the UK government was trying to calm things down rather than inflame tensions?
You've not tried those Richmond 'sausages' then!
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:17 am

veravista wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:44 am
Wrong. The NI border problem has been solved, agreed and now ratified by both parties, or have you missed that? It's in the Irish Sea. The 'sausage wars' are a direct result of UK Gov signing it but not understanding (or more likely hoping nobody notices) and is entirely predictable.

Or are you saying that they should be more flexible and allow anything in? We were caught by a sniffer dog going into the US with an old apple core that my 2 year old daughter had secreted in her back pack, surely they could have been a bit more flexible? (they were actually quite understanding about it)
The Irish Sea border is clearly not a workable solution for Unionists. The UK knew exactly what it signed, as did the EU. I'm not sure the DUP understood it but they were useful fools.

What I am saying will be done (and what I have been saying for a couple of years now) is that the UK will kick the can down the road, safe in the knowledge that the EU will not install border infrastructure. There will be some mince wars for a bit, then some sort of status quo will be found where both sides can claim victory. It'll be highly technical sounding but it'll be made of fudge.

Your story about the apple core sounds very alarming.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:18 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:41 am

Would sausage origin (and possibly price) really lead to violence, if the UK government was trying to calm things down rather than inflame tensions?
No, but doing over either the Unionists or Republicans would.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by veravista » Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:35 am

plodder wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:17 am
veravista wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:44 am
Wrong. The NI border problem has been solved, agreed and now ratified by both parties, or have you missed that? It's in the Irish Sea. The 'sausage wars' are a direct result of UK Gov signing it but not understanding (or more likely hoping nobody notices) and is entirely predictable.

Or are you saying that they should be more flexible and allow anything in? We were caught by a sniffer dog going into the US with an old apple core that my 2 year old daughter had secreted in her back pack, surely they could have been a bit more flexible? (they were actually quite understanding about it)
The Irish Sea border is clearly not a workable solution for Unionists. The UK knew exactly what it signed, as did the EU. I'm not sure the DUP understood it but they were useful fools.

What I am saying will be done (and what I have been saying for a couple of years now) is that the UK will kick the can down the road, safe in the knowledge that the EU will not install border infrastructure. There will be some mince wars for a bit, then some sort of status quo will be found where both sides can claim victory. It'll be highly technical sounding but it'll be made of fudge.

Your story about the apple core sounds very alarming.
Meanwhile, the EU will be perfectly within their rights to hammer goods coming from the rest of the UK - not necessarily with tariffs but 'unforeseen delays' at ports for JIT components for say, the automotive industry and building materials coming here.

(yes, for bio-security the apple core was not allowed into California, along with a whole raft of other fruit, vegetables and some meats - and yes it would have been the same for internal flights from other states)

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