Brexit Consequences

[Bird on a Fire]

I wouldn't over-invest in the ranting of a union rep who doesn't live in the UK. They almost certainly have their own strong political opinions.

Certainly, but it's echoing comments made many times before by British and EU HGV drivers. Just wanted to remind people that throwing money at the problem might not be enough, if conditions are also offputting.

Given the widespread shortages you've highlighted, HGV drivers can easily pick and choose where they work - why pick the UK with its border hassle and insecure contracts?

Drivers from the EU may well not see three months in the UK as an attractive proposition, especially if they have to give up a steady job.

But there are drivers in the rest of the world who would see the wages offered in the UK for a few months as a huge financial opportunity, for example people from Ukraine, Belarus or Russia.

Yes, exactly. A 3 month contract that ends on Christmas Eve - whoop di do. It barely gives them enough time to flee the country, to avoid getting trapped in a field over Christmas like last year.

I'm going to guess that, compared with the EU, recognition of most other countries' HGV licences isn't close to automatic. And I'm also going to guess that UK haulier unions wouldn't be super impressed at any perceived lowering of standards.

So I suspect the barriers to entry for a Belarusian, Nigerian or Bangladeshi truck driver are considerably higher than for an EU one. Industry will need time to figure out how to process applications and get all the paperwork in order if they want to go that route.

[dyqik]

Anyone want to guess how long the government will take to process visa applications, and all the other paperwork? And then how long the DVLA will take to process the license recognition stuff, and then how long it takes to get insurance set up?

[sheldrake]

I’m not sure that’s what people are expecting though. Might need a little bit of explaining. Might land a little badly.

Land badly compared to what? they've had 5 years of increasing immigration, with more of it from non-European countries. Almost nothing will change. People aren't rioting over immigration. Yes, I know there are mad people, but I don't think they've gotten any madder in the last 30 years.

[Martin_B]

Yeah, and they've got 80 tanker drivers.

80 drivers who will all need a 5 day intensive training course to train them up enough to be able to drive a road tanker with 2 other soldiers as banksmen to assist them. (A properly trained tanker driver doesn't need banksmen.)

So even assuming that they all pass the intensive course, that's an extra 80 trucks available in a week, when the crisis will probably have blown over, because everyone who is panic buying will have full tanks.

Still not sure what 80 trucks they'll be driving, because I doubt that the owners will be that interested in having under-qualified drivers borrowing their trucks.

[sheldrake]

Yeah, and they've got 80 tanker drivers.

80 drivers who will all need a 5 day intensive training course to train them up enough to be able to drive a road tanker with 2 other soldiers as banksmen to assist them. (A properly trained tanker driver doesn't need banksmen.)

So even assuming that they all pass the intensive course, that's an extra 80 trucks available in a week, when the crisis will probably have blown over, because everyone who is panic buying will have full tanks.

Still not sure what 80 trucks they'll be driving, because I doubt that the owners will be that interested in having under-qualified drivers borrowing their trucks.

The army has 1,931 licensed HGV drivers at present. Many of them will also be experienced instructors and examiners.

[Martin_B]

Yeah, and they've got 80 tanker drivers.

80 drivers who will all need a 5 day intensive training course to train them up enough to be able to drive a road tanker with 2 other soldiers as banksmen to assist them. (A properly trained tanker driver doesn't need banksmen.)

So even assuming that they all pass the intensive course, that's an extra 80 trucks available in a week, when the crisis will probably have blown over, because everyone who is panic buying will have full tanks.

Still not sure what 80 trucks they'll be driving, because I doubt that the owners will be that interested in having under-qualified drivers borrowing their trucks.

The army has 1,931 licensed HGV drivers at present. Many of them will also be experienced instructors and examiners.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58713770
75 drivers to be put on standby, with up to another 75 possibly (this bit of the story has changed since my earlier post). But all need the 5 day training course.

The army don't have much in the way of articulated trucks, it's mainly fixed. So they need to be trained, and their instructors won't be able to do this. Articulated liquid loads are another step up in skill required.

Maybe the other 1,781 army drivers are needed for actual army work. It's not like they spend all day lounging around doing nothing just because they don't have a war on at the moment.

[sheldrake]

Maybe the other 1,781 army drivers are needed for actual army work. It's not like they spend all day lounging around doing nothing just because they don't have a war on at the moment.

Maybe. But unblocking stuff like this can be made 'army work' if that's necessary and those are the orders.

Has it occurred to you that people in responsible positions are much less panicked than the Guardian-verse at the moment?

[lpm]

Wow, Shelly, that's a nice fast shift from your excitement about calling in the army to meh we don't need the army.

[plodder]

lpm you probably wouldn't understand this because you're all cheekbones and heels and excitedly getting ready to go out with girlfriends and stuff, but the way to look like a manly man is to suggest macho solutions and then be ice cool about them. Ice cool.

It's a great tactic and gets me loads of chicks, and I'm sure it also works really well for sheldrake.

[sheldrake]

Wow, Shelly, that's a nice fast shift from your excitement about calling in the army to meh we don't need the army.

It's there if we need it. Are you looking for a reason to panic?

Plodder; stop projecting your latent misogyny.

[Stephanie]

i think soon, i might be forced to make a thread just for sheldrake and plodder to argue and insult each other

[sheldrake]

It was all him

[Brightonian]

Twitter thread which I haven't properly read because I'm busy drinking but it confirms my biases: https://twitter.com/mac_puck/status/144 ... 19552?s=19

[gosling]

i think soon, i might be forced to make a thread just for sheldrake and plodder to argue and insult each other

Please do ... I have Sheldrake on ignore, and scroll past anyone quoting him. I think I've read about 10 posts in the last 10 pages.

[Martin_B]

i think soon, i might be forced to make a thread just for sheldrake and plodder to argue and insult each other

It's been done in the past (mainly, I think in the Other Place) when posters continually argued in bad faith. Prawns spring to mind, for some reason

[Millennie Al]

Has it occurred to you that people in responsible positions are much less panicked than the Guardian-verse at the moment?

Why should they panic? They have their chauffeur to bring around the car when they need it, and do not worry about finding fuel for it. And as we can see from the current government, being thoroughly incompetent is not sufficient to lose them their jobs.

[Woodchopper]

The African perspective:

https://mobile.twitter.com/gathara/stat ... 4194355200

That's satire at least.

Here's what looks like a Belgian equivalent of Buzfeed portraying Britain as somewhere people get into fights because they can't get hold of basic necessities like fuel.
https://twitter.com/Loopsidernews/statu ... 22855?s=20

[shpalman]

EU single market avoids supply problems

[sheldrake]

[Little waster]

The African perspective:

https://mobile.twitter.com/gathara/stat ... 4194355200

That's satire at least.

Here's what looks like a Belgian equivalent of Buzfeed portraying Britain as somewhere people get into fights because they can't get hold of basic necessities like fuel.
https://twitter.com/Loopsidernews/statu ... 22855?s=20

Well this aged well:-

[Bird on a Fire]

The people who worried Corbyn would somehow "turn the UK into Venezuela" must be delighted with the current shortages of fuel, empty supermarket shelves, prominent role of the military and the general corrupt kleptocracy headed by a populist bigman

[sheldrake]

The idea that this is venezuela-like is pretty hyperbolic.

[plodder]

thanks, I hadn't spotted the hyperbole and was about to take him seriously.

hopefully you won't also feel the need to point out that this post is sarcastic, or that any subsequent posts are also containing hidden messages that only the wise can detect.

[Bird on a Fire]

The idea that this is venezuela-like is pretty hyperbolic.

It is, yes. It always was.

[sheldrake]

thanks, I hadn't spotted the hyperbole and was about to take him seriously.

hopefully you won't also feel the need to point out that this post is sarcastic, or that any subsequent posts are also containing hidden messages that only the wise can detect.

Maybe you should start a special thread in the Pit where you can give a running commentary on The Right Way To Post for me.