Brexit Consequences

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Pishwish
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Pishwish » Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:54 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:47 pm
Pishwish wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:41 pm
It's like trying to explain to a 6-year-old that people other than pilots work at the airport.
It's like explaining to a petulant teenager that their anecdote about one company isn't important in the context of years of economic data for whole countries.
Not my anecdote, champ.

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:00 pm

plodder wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:51 pm
obfuscated government source bigs up the UK as a hub for investment? That's somehow more credible?
In what way is it obfuscated ? Do you really believe they actually just make up the figures?

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:12 pm

Look, this is data from 2019 but it's a US tech magazine that tracks all the tech startups, who invests in them etc..

The picture is very simillar. The data is from their own database of funding rounds etc..

Image

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:15 pm

They've actually got data by quarter through to June 2021 now

Image

See? UK tech investment is really really healthy compared to the rest of Europe.

I also know from my job how many positions big established tech companies are looking to move from the Coastal US to the UK next year (and it's been growing every year for several years now). Thousands of people to London, all on 6 figure incomes.

The UK has got lots of plusses from their perspective. It's much easier to hire good programmers here than on the west coast of the US now, their job market is completely saturated. We speak English. Immigration is much more relaxed here than the US. Lots of very skilled people are willing to move from Taiwan, Russia and India to live in London who wouldn't be interested in moving to Berlin or Paris.

plodder
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:50 pm

I don't see Luxembourg on that chart?

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:54 pm

plodder wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:50 pm
I don't see Luxembourg on that chart?
You actually made me chuckle.

plodder
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:46 am

Here are stats from earlier this year showing the exact opposite

https://investmentmonitor.ai/analysis/u ... cted-wound

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:23 am

plodder wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:46 am
Here are stats from earlier this year showing the exact opposite

https://investmentmonitor.ai/analysis/u ... cted-wound
Which of the tables or charts in this article do you believe show that?

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lpm
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by lpm » Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:30 am

Pishwish wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:41 pm
It's like trying to explain to a 6-year-old that people other than pilots work at the airport.
Lol.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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bjn
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by bjn » Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:18 am

What an entertaining Gish Gallop this hasn’t been. Sadly Shelly’s derailed the entire thread with his stew of unreasoned, bad faith and obviously wrong arguments and statements.

Unless you enjoy hunting trolls, nothing good or useful is being done here by arguing with him. It’s pure 386ing, put him on ignore and get on with life.

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shpalman
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by shpalman » Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:44 am

Sorry, what was useful about this thread before, apart from posting links and going "yeah that's bad" at each other?
molto tricky

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:50 am

bjn wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:18 am
What an entertaining Gish Gallop this hasn’t been. Sadly Shelly’s derailed the entire thread with his stew of unreasoned, bad faith and obviously wrong arguments and statements.

Unless you enjoy hunting trolls, nothing good or useful is being done here by arguing with him. It’s pure 386ing, put him on ignore and get on with life.
I have posted good quality data demonstrating the following: -

1) The UK has a thriving venture-capital backed technology sector that's gotten more vibrant since brexit

2) Investment hasn't collapsed. We've got the strongest inward investment in Europe after Luxembourg.

3) We have lower unemployment now than we did in 2016

4) Our economic growth is currently higher than most major European economies.

5) Immigration to the UK has increased, not decreased

6) Full time financial services employment in London has increased, not decreased.

7) Exports to the EU are actually up.

What have you contributed, exactly? You pump out this crap about bad faith and 'obviously wrong' arguments because you simply don't have any good arguments or supporting data of your own. You have been wrong about this for five years, and you are simply unable to process it.

Chris Preston
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Chris Preston » Sat Oct 09, 2021 11:08 am

You forgot

8. Shortages of bog roll on supermarket shelves are due to a lack of lorry drivers.
Here grows much rhubarb.

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 09, 2021 11:20 am

Chris Preston wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 11:08 am
You forgot

8. Shortages of bog roll on supermarket shelves are due to a lack of lorry drivers.
If you would just stop hoarding toilet roll maybe the rest of us could enjoy a quiet saturday morning sh.t once in a while, eh?

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bjn
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by bjn » Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:20 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:44 am
Sorry, what was useful about this thread before, apart from posting links and going "yeah that's bad" at each other?
There's no hope for it now.

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:28 pm

bjn wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:20 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:44 am
Sorry, what was useful about this thread before, apart from posting links and going "yeah that's bad" at each other?
There's no hope for it now.
What were you hoping for exactly? somewhere to vent without anybody challenging your worldview?

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dyqik
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by dyqik » Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:03 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:28 pm
bjn wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:20 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:44 am
Sorry, what was useful about this thread before, apart from posting links and going "yeah that's bad" at each other?
There's no hope for it now.
What were you hoping for exactly? somewhere to vent without anybody challenging your worldview?
Interesting observations about the interconnectedness of the UK economy and society to Europe that have been overlooked by the powers that be until now.

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:07 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:03 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:28 pm
bjn wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:20 pm


There's no hope for it now.
What were you hoping for exactly? somewhere to vent without anybody challenging your worldview?
Interesting observations about the interconnectedness of the UK economy and society to Europe that have been overlooked by the powers that be until now.
Is it fair to point out, with evidence from external sources, when leaving the regulatory orbit of the EU does not harm those economic and social links as much as some expected?

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dyqik
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by dyqik » Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:08 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:07 pm
dyqik wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:03 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:28 pm


What were you hoping for exactly? somewhere to vent without anybody challenging your worldview?
Interesting observations about the interconnectedness of the UK economy and society to Europe that have been overlooked by the powers that be until now.
Is it fair to point out, with evidence from external sources, when leaving the regulatory orbit of the EU does not harm those economic and social links as much as some expected?
Provided that the evidence addresses the full life cycle for the whole of society, and includes risk analysis, yes.

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:15 pm

For a moment, try to put aside that you don’t like me very much and look at much of the pessimistic content in this thread. Would you agree that it’s largely made up of negative news about single companies or incidents and doesnt look at aggregate data, in effect anecdotal? (and anecdotes selected to reinforce a pessimistic view of leaving the EU).

In that context, I think the data I’ve posted forms useful counterpoints. I don't see much, if any, of the kind of deep 'full lifecycle' analysis you're asking for from people pessimistic about us leaving the European Union at all.

plodder
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sat Oct 09, 2021 6:33 pm

plodder wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:46 am
Here are stats from earlier this year showing the exact opposite

https://investmentmonitor.ai/analysis/u ... cted-wound

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 09, 2021 7:07 pm

plodder wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 6:33 pm
plodder wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:46 am
Here are stats from earlier this year showing the exact opposite

https://investmentmonitor.ai/analysis/u ... cted-wound
Yes, I saw that and asked you a question in response.

What do you think those stats show you the exact opposite of, and which of the graphs or tables there in your linked article do you think show it?

For simplicitly, you could pick something from the numbered listed above. I am not looking to dismiss what you've posted, but to engage with it in a precise way.

plodder
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sat Oct 09, 2021 7:57 pm

No. Sorry. That link is for other people who might be interested.

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jimbob
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by jimbob » Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:00 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:07 pm
dyqik wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:03 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:28 pm


What were you hoping for exactly? somewhere to vent without anybody challenging your worldview?
Interesting observations about the interconnectedness of the UK economy and society to Europe that have been overlooked by the powers that be until now.
Is it fair to point out, with evidence from external sources, when leaving the regulatory orbit of the EU does not harm those economic and social links as much as some expected?

You seem to have rowed back from your claim that the Intel fab would only have employed about ten or twenty people.

If that's the level of your analysis, why should we pay any attention to what you say?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:04 pm

plodder wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 7:57 pm
No. Sorry. That link is for other people who might be interested.
Well, for other people who might be interested, the first issue with that article is that it doesn't make comparisons with other countries, so there's no sense in which it could show 'the exact opposite' of any of the claims above.

It also makes claims of causation with brexit that it doesn't test in the article by comparison with other countries, or any other kind of reasonable causal analysis. It just keeps asserting 'brexit caused..' without really demonstrating that.

e.g. it uses simple chronological associations like
FDI into the UK has fallen since Brexit announcement
without seeing if FDI into any other major economies have fallen since 2016.

You originally posted the link right after I showed you data about how healthy VC investment in the UK tech sector was, and has continued to be since 2016; nothing in your article directly addresses VC investment in the tech sector.

I think you're just skim-reading business magazine articles full of sloppy assertions and insisting they prove stuff they don't really prove.

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