Brexit Consequences

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sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:22 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:00 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:07 pm
dyqik wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:03 pm


Interesting observations about the interconnectedness of the UK economy and society to Europe that have been overlooked by the powers that be until now.
Is it fair to point out, with evidence from external sources, when leaving the regulatory orbit of the EU does not harm those economic and social links as much as some expected?

You seem to have rowed back from your claim that the Intel fab would only have employed about ten or twenty people.

If that's the level of your analysis, why should we pay any attention to what you say?
You ignored all the big picture data about UK trade and UK tech investment, and ignored what I posted about the level of automation in newer chip fabs. Looked at through your lens, why should I pay attention to what you say?

Because this is a forum. I don't expect you to believe anything I say based on me saying it. Poke at the evidence I present.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:34 pm

Lol that you're now arguing with what that stat-filled article doesn't say, rather than what it does, which is that inward investment to the UK has fallen off a cliff.

Linked to in the article, if you'd read it, is this - the latest UN trends monitor, which contains the choice quote:
FDI in the EU fell by two thirds, with major declines in all the largest recipients; flows to the United Kingdom fell to zero
It also contains loads of comparative data supporting the argument in the original article that despite Covid wreaking global havoc the UK is a particular f.cking economic shitshow right now.

https://unctad.org/system/files/officia ... 1d1_en.pdf

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:35 pm

But sure, stick to the glossy industry lads mags reassuring everyone that Octopus Energy is a Unicorn or whatever. Ace.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:44 pm

plodder wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:34 pm
Lol that you're now arguing with what that stat-filled article doesn't say, rather than what it does, which is that inward investment to the UK has fallen off a cliff.

Linked to in the article, if you'd read it, is this - the latest UN trends monitor, which contains the choice quote:
FDI in the EU fell by two thirds, with major declines in all the largest recipients; flows to the United Kingdom fell to zero
It also contains loads of comparative data supporting the argument in the original article that despite Covid wreaking global havoc the UK is a particular f.cking economic shitshow right now.

https://unctad.org/system/files/officia ... 1d1_en.pdf
FDI to the UK hasn't fallen to zero. You can play around on the OECD stats site to see that for yourself https://data.oecd.org/fdi/fdi-stocks.ht ... ator-chart

What they may have done, which was discussed earlier in this thread when somebody else did it, is confused FDI for Net FDI. Net FDI goes down if people in your country invest outwards.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:50 pm

Ernst and Young are also positive on UK investment, but be aware that the method they use to declare France as Europe's number 1 is based on number of projects rather than the actual volume of money

https://www.ey.com/en_uk/news/2021/06/u ... rt-reveals
But sure, stick to the glossy industry lads mags reassuring everyone that Octopus Energy is a Unicorn or whatever. Ace.
Yeah I know 'young tech company' isn't the bit of the economy that most people experience daily, but it's only one of the points I used and they are an important type of investment for future growth. Web designers in Hackney are people too. The UK is doing really well at this.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:03 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:44 am
Sorry, what was useful about this thread before, apart from posting links and going "yeah that's bad" at each other?
Maybe people need a "Brexit bitching" thread in Relaxation Station to post negative Brexit anecdotes and articles and go "yeah that's bad" at each other?

It sounds like it might be a useful way to vent.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:09 pm

From https://data.oecd.org/chart/6u1h
Screen Shot 2021-10-09 at 10.59.59 PM.png
Screen Shot 2021-10-09 at 10.59.59 PM.png (201.18 KiB) Viewed 303 times
This is the total cumulative amount people from outside of each country have invested into it, for the G7, over the last 8 years of data the OECD has.

Investment in most countries increases over time, but you can see that people on balance pulled money out of Germany between 2017-2018, or out of Canada 2014-2015.

The UK has the second largest amount of capital invested into it from overseas in the G7, and that amount continued to increase every year since the referendum.

If you look, you will also see that overseas investment in the UK has increased much more between 2016 and 2020 than it has into Germany or France, for example.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:27 pm

He has the grace of a swan, the wisdom of an owl, and the eye of an eagle—ladies and gentlemen, this man is for the birds!

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:32 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:27 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rn-ireland

Yeah that's bad
Let's see. We keep being told that pushing back on the EU in negotiations will lead to either implacable refusal to bend from a 'core principle' or furious retribution, but generally speaking neither happens. The EU can and does move in negotiation. Brinksmanship is a thing.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:51 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... ion-treaty

This is fine, though. We should accept migrants on humanitarian grounds, and offer them priority training in areas with skill shortages, like medicine, fitting insulation and driving HGVs.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Trinucleus » Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:51 am

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:32 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:27 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rn-ireland

Yeah that's bad
Let's see. We keep being told that pushing back on the EU in negotiations will lead to either implacable refusal to bend from a 'core principle' or furious retribution, but generally speaking neither happens. The EU can and does move in negotiation. Brinksmanship is a thing.
Maybe one of the points in the EU's implacable refusal to bend is sticking to an agreement that both parties signed?

I just have this image of the EU as a calm parent trying to sort out a problem and the UK as a screaming toddler stamping their feet

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:06 am

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:09 pm
From https://data.oecd.org/chart/6u1h

Screen Shot 2021-10-09 at 10.59.59 PM.png

This is the total cumulative amount people from outside of each country have invested into it, for the G7, over the last 8 years of data the OECD has.

Investment in most countries increases over time, but you can see that people on balance pulled money out of Germany between 2017-2018, or out of Canada 2014-2015.

The UK has the second largest amount of capital invested into it from overseas in the G7, and that amount continued to increase every year since the referendum.

If you look, you will also see that overseas investment in the UK has increased much more between 2016 and 2020 than it has into Germany or France, for example.
Except that you're deliberately ignoring money flowing out, something the reports I linked to don't do. Again, it's possible to find economic metrics showing anything if you slice things the way you want. But picking one single isolated metric and ignoring the others isn't a great way to press home a argument, especially when you are trying to make the general argument that the UK economy is in a better place than its peers.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:07 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:03 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:44 am
Sorry, what was useful about this thread before, apart from posting links and going "yeah that's bad" at each other?
Maybe people need a "Brexit bitching" thread in Relaxation Station to post negative Brexit anecdotes and articles and go "yeah that's bad" at each other?

It sounds like it might be a useful way to vent.
Lol, like the BBC on climate change. On the one hand - here's some evidence. On the other, here's a moron.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:45 am

plodder wrote:
Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:06 am
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:09 pm
From https://data.oecd.org/chart/6u1h

Screen Shot 2021-10-09 at 10.59.59 PM.png

This is the total cumulative amount people from outside of each country have invested into it, for the G7, over the last 8 years of data the OECD has.

Investment in most countries increases over time, but you can see that people on balance pulled money out of Germany between 2017-2018, or out of Canada 2014-2015.

The UK has the second largest amount of capital invested into it from overseas in the G7, and that amount continued to increase every year since the referendum.

If you look, you will also see that overseas investment in the UK has increased much more between 2016 and 2020 than it has into Germany or France, for example.
Except that you're deliberately ignoring money flowing out, something the reports I linked to don't do. Again, it's possible to find economic metrics showing anything if you slice things the way you want. But picking one single isolated metric and ignoring the others isn't a great way to press home a argument, especially when you are trying to make the general argument that the UK economy is in a better place than its peers.
But money invested overseas from the UK isnt money reducing the stock of investment here (you can see that stock is growing, and growing faster than Germany or France since 2016).

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:56 am

Sorry to spell this out, but it's total investment that's important. That's the money that comes from overseas and the money that doesn't.

You do understand this?

You are strangling the stats down to just a portion of the whole picture.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Oct 10, 2021 11:35 am

plodder wrote:
Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:56 am
Sorry to spell this out, but it's total investment that's important. That's the money that comes from overseas and the money that doesn't.

You do understand this?

You are strangling the stats down to just a portion of the whole picture.
Yes, I do understand this.

Total investment in the UK from overseas has increased. Net FDI is not total investment; it's the balance of money people and companies overseas invest into the UK minus the amount that people in the UK invest outwards.

Net FDI can be zero whilst the amount of investment in the UK (both from foreigners, and total) is growing. There is no real scenario where investment in the UK actually dropped to zero either from foreign entities, or from within the UK. Do you understand that ?

If you want to see what an economy really suffering a collapse in investment looks like, use the OECD tool to look at 2008. The actual stock of investment in the UK from outside doesn't just stop growing, it actually significantly reduces as people pull money out.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sun Oct 10, 2021 11:55 am

Good. You accept that you've spotted a mini-metric that supports what you're saying, and you accept this doesn't show the whole picture. This is called "agreement".

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Oct 10, 2021 2:28 pm

I can't find an equivalent metric for investment in the UK coming from just UK sources, or one that's a clear sum of domestic and the inward FDI already cited.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sun Oct 10, 2021 3:18 pm

what I’d like to know is: how much of your “foreign investment” is simply money being given to banks in the UK that they then invest overseas, resulting in the net zero in the UN’s stats?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:34 pm

plodder wrote:
Sun Oct 10, 2021 3:18 pm
what I’d like to know is: how much of your “foreign investment” is simply money being given to banks in the UK that they then invest overseas, resulting in the net zero in the UN’s stats?
The FDI stock is a measure of the value of UK company shares and loans to UK companies held by people overseas. The loans could be redirected, for sure, the stock less so (much of what's shown in that table is people overseas holding shares in UK companies long term). Here's the rub; the UK's economy is dominated by financial services, much of our economy is about this kind of 'moving money about' so when it's doing well you expect to see a lot going in and a lot go out.

If we're looking for the amount of money invested in more concrete things in the UK, we could look at real estate (problematic as a measure of genuine economic success for other reasons), people employed in the UK (going well compared to much of Europe and by our own historic norms), the value of UK companies in total (not sure what this is, even FTSE 'all share' index is only based on 600 businesses)?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:46 pm

lol f.cking hell just make your mind up before posting

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:06 pm

plodder wrote:
Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:46 pm
lol f.cking hell just make your mind up before posting
I'm pretty happy that the collection of proxies we've already got show that the UK as a whole is relatively healthy compared to other major european economies.
Brexit doesn't really show up as an economic problem in any of the big aggregates (even exports to the EU are up), our problem is massive systemic inequality.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:26 pm

“collection of proxies”? You’ve posted one, which appears to suggest that foreign investors trust UK banks to invest their money elsewhere. That’s it. Oh, sorry, I forgot the trade paper that got excited that Unicorn Energy was an Octopus or something.

You’ve posted nothing showing Bexit has had a beneficial impact.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:34 pm

plodder wrote:
Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:26 pm
“collection of proxies”? You’ve posted one, which appears to suggest that foreign investors trust UK banks to invest their money elsewhere. That’s it. Oh, sorry, I forgot the trade paper that got excited that Unicorn Energy was an Octopus or something.
And our employment stats, and our increased exports, and our increased immigration, and our current high economic growth. I don't think it's fair to dismiss the UK attracting more VC funding than France and Germany combined for it's tech companies, some of them will turn into big companies one day and it keeps a lot of young people in reasonably paid work.
You’ve posted nothing showing Bexit has had a beneficial impact.
I try and give examples of that in the benefits thread.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Lew Dolby » Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:32 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:34 pm
The FDI stock is a measure of the value of UK company shares and loans to UK companies held by people overseas.
Am i understanding this correctly ? If a UK company's shares increase in value, then (assuming some foreign share owners) that counts as inward investment.
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