Brexit Consequences

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sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:37 pm

Lew Dolby wrote:
Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:32 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:34 pm
The FDI stock is a measure of the value of UK company shares and loans to UK companies held by people overseas.
Am i understanding this correctly ? If a UK company's shares increase in value, then (assuming some foreign share owners) that counts as inward investment.
For inward FDI stocks yes, it's a combination of the value of their existing holdings increasing and new money coming in, but shares only increase in value when people bid more for them on the stock market. They can't increase in value in a vacuum of nobody trying to buy them. The increase in price means either British parties or other foreign parties are willing to pay more for them. Same for UK bonds owned overseas.

Millennie Al
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Millennie Al » Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:18 am

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:07 pm
Is it fair to point out, with evidence from external sources, when leaving the regulatory orbit of the EU does not harm those economic and social links as much as some expected?
No. That would be appropriate in a "How Brexit predictions worked out" thread - not in "Brexit Consequences".
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

plodder
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:23 pm

David Frost - what a cheeky c.nt:
The Northern Ireland protocol is the biggest source of mistrust between us and, for all kinds of reasons, we need to fix this problem.

I recognise that’s not easy. The history here does matter. I do understand why the EU finds it difficult to come back to an agreement that was reached only two years ago, though that itself is far from unusual in international relations.

Equally, there’s a widespread feeling in the UK that the EU did try to use Northern Ireland to encourage UK political forces to reverse the referendum results or, at least, to keep us closely aligned with the EU.

Moreover, that the protocol represents a moment of EU overreach when the UK’s negotiating hand was tied. And, therefore, cannot reasonably last in its current form.
eta link

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... st-updates

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:29 pm

You need to be a little bit of a cheeky c.nt when you're negotiating. Let's see what he gets out of it.

plodder
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:34 pm

you’re right. the EU won’t have seen this coming, they’ll be off balance and caught by surprise! a bit of weaving, slip through to the inside - biff! a bl..dy nose! that’ll show em who they’re messing with.

plodder
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:35 pm

oh no hang on. they saw it coming. so did everyone else. oh.

FlammableFlower
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by FlammableFlower » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:43 pm

plodder wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:23 pm
David Frost - what a cheeky c.nt:
The Northern Ireland protocol is the biggest source of mistrust between us and, for all kinds of reasons, we need to fix this problem.

I recognise that’s not easy. The history here does matter. I do understand why the EU finds it difficult to come back to an agreement that was reached only two years ago, though that itself is far from unusual in international relations.

Equally, there’s a widespread feeling in the UK that the EU did try to use Northern Ireland to encourage UK political forces to reverse the referendum results or, at least, to keep us closely aligned with the EU.

Moreover, that the protocol represents a moment of EU overreach when the UK’s negotiating hand was tied. And, therefore, cannot reasonably last in its current form.
That from the person who was involved in the negotiations and said at the time how great it was... wow.

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:45 pm

plodder wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:35 pm
oh no hang on. they saw it coming. so did everyone else. oh.
You know they've changed their minds on 'immovable principles' before after we've been prepared to argue. Lets see.

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lpm
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:17 pm

They didn't change their mind on any immovable principles that I can remember.

They wanted a border in the Irish Sea but were forced to accept the backstop instead. Then we cleverly demanded they remove the backstop and said we didn't care if it was their immovable principle. They agreed to remove the backstop and take a border in the Irish Sea instead. Then we boasted about how we got them to remove an immovable principle.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by headshot » Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:18 pm

Equally, there’s a widespread feeling in the UK that the EU did try to use Northern Ireland to encourage UK political forces to reverse the referendum results or, at least, to keep us closely aligned with the EU.
Conveniently ignoring hundreds of years of bl..dy history between Britain and Ireland there. Class act.

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:20 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:17 pm
They didn't change their mind on any immovable principles that I can remember.

They wanted a border in the Irish Sea but were forced to accept the backstop instead. Then we cleverly demanded they remove the backstop and said we didn't care if it was their immovable principle. They agreed to remove the backstop and take a border in the Irish Sea instead. Then we boasted about how we got them to remove an immovable principle.
Do you remember when they weren't going to let us reopen May's deal?

https://apnews.com/article/global-trade ... c4462634b2

But they did though.

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lpm
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:24 pm

THEY REOPENED THE DEAL BECAUSE WE OFFERED WHAT THEY ORIGINALLY WANTED INSTEAD OF THE sh.t COMPROMISE MAY FORCED THEM INTO.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:49 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:24 pm
THEY REOPENED THE DEAL BECAUSE WE OFFERED WHAT THEY ORIGINALLY WANTED INSTEAD OF THE sh.t COMPROMISE MAY FORCED THEM INTO.
Caps is unnecessary here. If that had been the case, I would've expected it to take much less time to negotiate.

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lpm
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:56 pm

It took 2 minutes to negotiate! They had the draft docs ready.

Do you not remember Theresa May saying "No British Prime Minister could ever accept this proposal to have a border in the Irish Sea"? And going off and negotiating the backstop instead? And Tory backbenchers whining about the backstop? And then the next British Prime Minister tearing up the backstop and accepting the border in the Irish Sea?

Were you in a coma during all this or have you elected to forget?
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:44 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:56 pm
It took 2 minutes to negotiate! They had the draft docs ready.

Do you not remember Theresa May saying "No British Prime Minister could ever accept this proposal to have a border in the Irish Sea"? And going off and negotiating the backstop instead? And Tory backbenchers whining about the backstop? And then the next British Prime Minister tearing up the backstop and accepting the border in the Irish Sea?

Were you in a coma during all this or have you elected to forget?
Do you not remember the negotiation deadlines being extended under Johnson?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Trinucleus » Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:04 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:44 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:56 pm
It took 2 minutes to negotiate! They had the draft docs ready.

Do you not remember Theresa May saying "No British Prime Minister could ever accept this proposal to have a border in the Irish Sea"? And going off and negotiating the backstop instead? And Tory backbenchers whining about the backstop? And then the next British Prime Minister tearing up the backstop and accepting the border in the Irish Sea?

Were you in a coma during all this or have you elected to forget?
Do you not remember the negotiation deadlines being extended under Johnson?
Yes. Do you remember the rest of it?

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:53 pm

Yes, what’s your point?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by WFJ » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:02 pm

The extra negotiation time was required for Johnson to first bluff that he was going to settle for a no WA/no deal Brexit, then, when that didn't work, for him to decide whether to capitulate and accept the initial 2017 agreement offer (which he had said was unacceptable) or the May negotiated backstop agreement (which he had said was unacceptable). He chose the former, having guessed correctly that the cretins who cannot see through him would forget what he had said two years prior.

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lpm
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:27 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:53 pm
Yes, what’s your point?
The point is you need to choose whether the EU is flexible and "change their minds on 'immovable principles'." Or if they are stubborn bastards who forced the UK to accept a bad deal instead of coming to a fair agreement.

Fact is, the EU has red lines it will never cross, particularly on the integrity of the Single Market, but is a talented and relentless negotiator on anything else. Whereas the UK is a sh.t negotiator. It's a pretty unfair fight.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:38 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:27 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:53 pm
Yes, what’s your point?
The point is you need to choose whether the EU is flexible and "change their minds on 'immovable principles'." Or if they are stubborn bastards who forced the UK to accept a bad deal instead of coming to a fair agreement.

Fact is, the EU has red lines it will never cross, particularly on the integrity of the Single Market, but is a talented and relentless negotiator on anything else. Whereas the UK is a sh.t negotiator. It's a pretty unfair fight.
You're the one presenting a false dichotomy. The idea the the EU was willing to sign the deal because it was what they already wanted, and yet needed so much extra time in negotiation hammering things out is pretty silly. The EU have moved in negotiation before, they haven't really shown 'best endeavor' to ensure the customs integrity of the UK as a single united country as was hoped, so a new agreement is now needed.

You were wrong about the UK's negotiating ability when you guessed how long it would take to close deals with other countries, and on how much the EU would be willing to move in the past, so I think this post of yours is grumpy hyperbole.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:46 pm

It took 1 week for the EU once Johnson agreed to put a border in the Irish Sea. Why on earth do you think they "needed so much extra time in negotiation"?

It all happened so quickly because it was already agreed to on the EU side, but then rejected by the May government.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:04 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:46 pm
It took 1 week for the EU once Johnson agreed to put a border in the Irish Sea. Why on earth do you think they "needed so much extra time in negotiation"?

It all happened so quickly because it was already agreed to on the EU side, but then rejected by the May government.
Can you point me to the text of the proposal made by the EU to the May government for a simillar Northern Ireland protocol so that I may perhaps compare it to the deal which Boris Johnson proposed in 2020, hmm ?

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lpm
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:44 pm

What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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lpm
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:55 pm

Page 100:
A common regulatory area comprising the Union and the United Kingdom in respect of Northern Ireland is hereby established. The common regulatory area shall constitute an area without internal borders in which the free movement of goods is ensured and North-South cooperation protected in accordance with this Chapter
.
The territory of Northern Ireland, excluding the territorial waters of the United Kingdom (the “territory of Northern Ireland”), shall be considered to be part of the customs territory of the Union.
Theresa May rejected this EU proposal as wholly unacceptable in Feb 2018.

Boris Johnson accepted it in 2019.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:15 pm

The protocol proposed here really isn't the same as the one Johnson negotiated. I'll give examples of differences

2018 Protocol
2. Customs legislation as defined in point (2) of Article 5 of Regulation (EU) No 952/2013 of the
European Parliament and of the Council138 as well as other provisions of Union law providing for
customs controls of specific goods or for specific purposes listed in Annex 3 to this Protocol shall
apply to and in the United Kingdom in respect of Northern Ireland. The territory of Northern
Ireland, excluding the territorial waters of the United Kingdom (the "territory of Northern
Ireland"), shall be considered to be part of the customs territory of the Union.
2020 Protocol
Article 4
Customs territory of the United Kingdom

Northern Ireland is part of the customs territory of the United Kingdom.
Accordingly, nothing in this Protocol shall prevent the United Kingdom from including Northern
Ireland in the territorial scope of any agreements it may conclude with third countries, provided that
those agreements do not prejudice the application of this Protocol.
In particular, nothing in this Protocol shall prevent the United Kingdom from concluding agreements
with a third country that grant goods produced in Northern Ireland preferential access to that
country’s market on the same terms as goods produced in other parts of the United Kingdom.
Nothing in this Protocol shall prevent the United Kingdom from including Northern Ireland in the
territorial scope of its Schedules of Concessions annexed to the General Agreement on Tariffs and
Trade 1994.
Agriculture and fisheries differ in that Johnson's version has regulations subject to agreement by joint committee.

State aid rules in Johnson's version are subject to carveouts for the NI agriculture sector

Enforcement is owned by the EU in the 2018 version, the UK in the 2020 version.

I can go on picking out differences, but there's a significant delta here. The 2020 version isn't something the EU had already proposed.

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