Brexit Consequences

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sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:21 pm

Cardinal Fang wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:13 pm
Ian Paisley JR has said that Johnson promised to tear up NI protocol. This is the 2nd person to have made this allegation (the first was Dominic Cummings, but he's about as trustworthy as his former employer i.e. not at all).
The protocol always had a vote from the NI assembly required 4 years down the line to renew it. The temporary nature was never a secret.
Dropping the ECJ grenade in at the last minute, when the EC were about to make an announcement of measures to try and get the NI protocol to work seems in keeping with this idea that the government never intended to implement or keep the NI protocol.
I do not know why you think this is a last minute thing. Frost has been asking for this for over a month.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by temptar » Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:55 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:21 pm
Cardinal Fang wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:13 pm
Ian Paisley JR has said that Johnson promised to tear up NI protocol. This is the 2nd person to have made this allegation (the first was Dominic Cummings, but he's about as trustworthy as his former employer i.e. not at all).
The protocol always had a vote from the NI assembly required 4 years down the line to renew it. The temporary nature was never a secret.
Dropping the ECJ grenade in at the last minute, when the EC were about to make an announcement of measures to try and get the NI protocol to work seems in keeping with this idea that the government never intended to implement or keep the NI protocol.
I do not know why you think this is a last minute thing. Frost has been asking for this for over a month.
What is being discussed right now, Sheldrake, isn't a vote for NI. It is a breaking if the NIP without that vote.

Objectively, Ireland handled Covid19 far better than the UK did as witnessed by the difference in infection rates between North and Ireland. The only people screeching about the NIP are the DUP who were against the GFA in the first place

You want the best for NI, then rejoin the single market and customs union. Anything else is just gaslighting.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by purplehaze » Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:14 pm

temptar wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:55 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:21 pm
Cardinal Fang wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:13 pm
Ian Paisley JR has said that Johnson promised to tear up NI protocol. This is the 2nd person to have made this allegation (the first was Dominic Cummings, but he's about as trustworthy as his former employer i.e. not at all).
The protocol always had a vote from the NI assembly required 4 years down the line to renew it. The temporary nature was never a secret.
Dropping the ECJ grenade in at the last minute, when the EC were about to make an announcement of measures to try and get the NI protocol to work seems in keeping with this idea that the government never intended to implement or keep the NI protocol.
I do not know why you think this is a last minute thing. Frost has been asking for this for over a month.
What is being discussed right now, Sheldrake, isn't a vote for NI. It is a breaking if the NIP without that vote.

Objectively, Ireland handled Covid19 far better than the UK did as witnessed by the difference in infection rates between North and Ireland. The only people screeching about the NIP are the DUP who were against the GFA in the first place

You want the best for NI, then rejoin the single market and customs union. Anything else is just gaslighting.
Temptar is absolutely right. I'm Northern Irish born, have my duel citizenship already. I can retire anywhere on the Island of Ireland. I'd prefer if people stopped pandering to the DUP, who they?, as I pointed out recently to my ERG English MP. She agreed.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Cardinal Fang » Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:14 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:21 pm
Cardinal Fang wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:13 pm
Ian Paisley JR has said that Johnson promised to tear up NI protocol. This is the 2nd person to have made this allegation (the first was Dominic Cummings, but he's about as trustworthy as his former employer i.e. not at all).
The protocol always had a vote from the NI assembly required 4 years down the line to renew it. The temporary nature was never a secret.
Except according to the reports it was never meant to even last 4 years. It was never supposed to be properly implemented at all. Yet it was sold to our sovereign elected Parliament AND the public as an oven ready deal that Got Brexit Done and was a great deal all round.

This then appears to have been a lie. He lied to Parliament - should be a resigning matter. He lied to the public - should be a resigning matter. He lied to the NI Ireland assembly if the promise was that they would have a vote to renew in 4 years if the Conservatives never meant to implement it and instead were planning to use them as pawns in a political game of chicken.

If Johnson was never intending to keep to the protocol that his government negotiated AND signed, do you not this is fundamentally dishonest Sheldrake?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:22 pm

temptar wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:55 pm

What is being discussed right now, Sheldrake, isn't a vote for NI. It is a breaking if the NIP without that vote.
An invocation of article 16 isn't a breach of the protocol. If the EU had made better effort to respect the customs integrity of the UK, it wouldn't be happening.
Objectively, Ireland handled Covid19 far better than the UK did as witnessed by the difference in infection rates between North and Ireland. The only people screeching about the NIP are the DUP who were against the GFA in the first place

You want the best for NI, then rejoin the single market and customs union. Anything else is just gaslighting.
I'd be perfectly happy for NI to reunite with the Republic, but the unionists do not want that and they are a significant component of NI voters. You also don't have the economic resources to support NI through reunification.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:42 pm

Now that would be a fun thread.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by dyqik » Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:23 pm

Of course, the EU has substantial regional development funds.

Those that used to go Cornwall and similar should be available but.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by temptar » Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:30 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:22 pm
temptar wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:55 pm

What is being discussed right now, Sheldrake, isn't a vote for NI. It is a breaking if the NIP without that vote.
An invocation of article 16 isn't a breach of the protocol. If the EU had made better effort to respect the customs integrity of the UK, it wouldn't be happening.
Objectively, Ireland handled Covid19 far better than the UK did as witnessed by the difference in infection rates between North and Ireland. The only people screeching about the NIP are the DUP who were against the GFA in the first place

You want the best for NI, then rejoin the single market and customs union. Anything else is just gaslighting.
I'd be perfectly happy for NI to reunite with the Republic, but the unionists do not want that and they are a significant component of NI voters. You also don't have the economic resources to support NI through reunification.
Ireland is a member of the EU. Reunification would be tough but doable. If and when it comes to it.

It seems to me you didn't bother listening to David Frost during the week. You have spent days telling me not to believe things you cannot accept are happening.

You voted for Brexit. Fine. Northern Ireland didn't and it had this shitshow imposed on it. We are having to make a hell of a lot of effort and work to accommodate your rank stupidity at the moment. The one part of the UK least affected by your stupidity is NI specifically because the Republic has gone to extreme efforts to limit the impact of your rank stupidity on the North. Even Paisley advised his community to acquire Irish passports and the Irish government sponsors Erasmus for students from the North.

England can't organise a piss up in a brewery right now.

The UK signed away internal customs integrity. It was made abundantly clear to you, your negotiators and your government what the impact of your decisions was.

That you stuck your head in sand is on you.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by temptar » Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:32 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:23 pm
Of course, the EU has substantial regional development funds.

Those that used to go Cornwall and similar should be available but.
Not just the funds. There is expertise in neighbours for handling this too.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:34 pm

This seems bad:
Boris Johnson’s foreign policy is 80% driven by short-term domestic political interests that make it impossible to come to stable arrangements with him, senior French sources have concluded.

Paris is increasingly convinced the British prime minister is not interested in solving the bilateral problems weighing down the relationship, and instead wants to use France as a running sore to keep Brexit alive in British politics.

The complaint is in some ways a mirror-image of the British claim that French attitudes are being driven by internal politics.

One diplomat described the situation as perilous, saying Britain seems uninterested in improving relations until after the French presidential election next April, leaving eight difficult months ahead in which the relationship could decline further on a variety of fronts.
My favourite bit is where the diplomat talks about French internal politics to prove that it's about British internal politics.

Most politicians are in hock to short-termism, of course, especially populists like Johnson and Macron. But it's a bit harder for Johnson, as he has to take into account 27 countries' internal politics, plus EU internal politics, as well as his own. Whereas the EU only have one slippery incompetent to keep an eye on, and scope for multilateralism is going to be limited (hence the necessity to take back control from the EUSSR centralisation buearu*).

*please can we Take Back Control of spelling from Old French. It's high time English orthography was standardise. It should be byúroh.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by temptar » Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:38 pm

I think the French are being kind here with 80% here.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:44 pm

Don't forget long-term political interests. And short-term financial interests.

And general incompetence.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Cardinal Fang » Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:00 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:22 pm
temptar wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:55 pm

What is being discussed right now, Sheldrake, isn't a vote for NI. It is a breaking if the NIP without that vote.
An invocation of article 16 isn't a breach of the protocol.
It would be a breach as it stands because all of the problems now arising were predicted, by the UK government no less, and A16 can't be used to address problems that not only were forseen BUT could have mitigated by both parties acting in good faith - and as time has shown as time and again the Conservatives have not been acting in good faith. Grace periods that were supposed to give time to allow changes to be implemented were instead use to stonewall, posture, and then unilaterally extended. Any use of A16 must restricted with regard to their scope and duration and only to what is strictly necessary to address the difficulty or difficulties being faced. And they must be measures that disturb the functioning of the Protocol. Which means it can't be used to unilaterally dump the entire NI protocol in the bin.

And before it can be invoked, there must be an attempt to find a commonly acceptable solution. The EU has proposed a reasonable one. The UK has suggested things that any outside or independent observer can see could not work.

If one side invokes it unilaterally without taking all the interim steps needed to resolve the problem, or tries to invoke it in such a way that is disporportionate to solve the issue, the other party may invoke tariffs and other measures to "rebalance" things. If the Conservatives tried to invoke A16 in order to bin the whole NI protocol it's highly likely that the EU would introduce measures - tariffs perhaps, certainly much stronger customs checks of things entering and leaving the EU. The Tories' posturing might play well with the minority of Quitling extremists who still think Brexit is a good idea, but the rest of us will suffer even more than we are (because temptar is correct - our government couldn't organise a piss up in a beer making plant)
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:22 pm
If the EU had made better effort to respect the customs integrity of the UK, it wouldn't be happening.
Out of interest - you've parrotted this trope a few times. Perhaps you might explain clearly and in full what you mean by that?

What do you mean by the "customs integrity" and how have they not made an effort to respect it?

The UK after all negotiated for AND agreed to border checks in the Irish Sea. They made an assessment of the impact of this before signing the deal, before putting it before Parliament and the country. They knew the implications. They knew the standards that would need to be met because they are the standards of the EU, which the UK helped set as members. They passed the treaty in to law, meaning that these standards became UK law. Do you think it unfair that EU actually expected the UK to keep it's end of the bargain and enforce the custom checks it had agreed to, signed into law, and was given ample time to inform businesses of and implement? Is that what you mean by "not respecting the customs integrity" of the UK? Not respecting the Conservatives's wishes to shut it's eyes and ignore that they made a binding commitment to something simply for the sake of political expediency?
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:06 pm

temptar wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:30 pm

The UK signed away internal customs integrity. It was made abundantly clear to you, your negotiators and your government what the impact of your decisions was.
The NI Protocol wrote: .
.
RECALLING that Northern Ireland is part of the customs territory of the United Kingdom and will
benefit from participation in the United Kingdom's independent trade policy,

HAVING REGARD to the importance of maintaining the integral place of Northern Ireland in the
United Kingdom’s internal market,
.
.
Northern Ireland is part of the customs territory of the United Kingdom.
Accordingly, nothing in this Protocol shall prevent the United Kingdom from including Northern
Ireland in the territorial scope of any agreements it may conclude with third countries, provided that
those agreements do not prejudice the application of this Protocol.

In particular, nothing in this Protocol shall prevent the United Kingdom from concluding agreements
with a third country that grant goods produced in Northern Ireland preferential access to that
country’s market on the same terms as goods produced in other parts of the United Kingdom.
.
.
Having regard to Northern Ireland's integral place in the United Kingdom's internal market, the
Union and the United Kingdom shall use their best endeavours to facilitate the trade between
Northern Ireland and other parts of the United Kingdom, in accordance with applicable
legislation and taking into account their respective regulatory regimes as well as the
implementation thereof. The Joint Committee shall keep the application of this paragraph
under constant review and shall adopt appropriate recommendations with a view to avoiding
controls at the ports and airports of Northern Ireland to the extent possible.
.
.
Cardinal Fang, I do not think you understand article 16
Article 16 of the NI Protocol wrote: If the application of this Protocol leads to serious economic, societal or environmental
difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade, the Union or the United Kingdom
may unilaterally take appropriate safeguard measures. Such safeguard measures shall be
restricted with regard to their scope and duration to what is strictly necessary in order to
remedy the situation. Priority shall be given to such measures as will least disturb the
functioning of this Protocol.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by dyqik » Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:26 pm

temptar wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:32 pm
dyqik wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:23 pm
Of course, the EU has substantial regional development funds.

Those that used to go Cornwall and similar should be available but.
Not just the funds. There is expertise in neighbours for handling this too.
Yeah, for example, Germany has experience in reunification after a couple of generations of separation and major changes in constitution and government.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:39 pm

Germany is also wealthier than the Republic of Ireland, and the EU just lost one of its largest net contributors. Supporting NI through that transition would be a strain, even if you ignore how the unionist majority would feel about it today.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by temptar » Sun Oct 17, 2021 12:06 am

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:39 pm
Germany is also wealthier than the Republic of Ireland, and the EU just lost one of its largest net contributors. Supporting NI through that transition would be a strain, even if you ignore how the unionist majority would feel about it today.
Brexit is carefully burning through that majority and current projections estimate Sinn Féin will overtake the DUP at the next Stormont election. That will be interesting as in theory, the DUPahould letgo of the First Minister post in that case.

Also, because you seem to be missing something here, but technically, that reunification would require a plebiscite to take place in Northern Ireland on the subject. Presumably if we were going through the hassle of cleaning up yet another mess caused by poor long term planning in the UK, it would be on the foot of there no longer being a majority in favour of maintaining the union. Let me spell that out: unification with Ireland would require a referendum and a majority in favour of re-uniting with Ireland. Not only that, it is a UK government who decides when that referendum takes place. In short, if there is a unionist majority, the UK gets to keep NI.

We recognise Germany is de facto wealthier than Ireland. But they have experience in identifying the challenges of that kind of project, and the general nature of EU accession discussions mean there is a lot of understanding around this in Brussels too.

The message you are steadfastly ignoring is that we can rely on our friends. And ultimately, if NI is organisationally expensive, well that is after 100 years of UK operation. Congratulations.

The difference is, Ireland will actually have planning in place if it comes to pass. This is in stark contrast to the monumental lack of contingency planning the UK did in advance of the Brexit referendum.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by dyqik » Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:12 am

Eastern Germany was certainly as poor as NI at the time of reunification, if not more so.

It was also coming from a very different form of government and economy. NI would be arriving from a democratic system of government and capitalism, at least.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by temptar » Sun Oct 17, 2021 6:26 am

dyqik wrote:
Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:12 am
Eastern Germany was certainly as poor as NI at the time of reunification, if not more so.

It was also coming from a very different form of government and economy. NI would be arriving from a democratic system of government and capitalism, at least.
Nominally, yes. But unless it has changed radically a significant amount of income locally in the province is from the State rather than private sector earnings. The assembly elections are dome sort of PR but broadly speaking, there are substantial differences in democracy in Ireland, to the situation currently in the North. NI needs a lot of inward investment and mot a lot of that FDI that Sheldrake bangs on about goes there

There are massive adjustments to be made on both sides and also, agreement on what should happen if NI votes in favour of leaving the UK and Ireland does not vote in favour of unification. The removal of the old articles 2 and 3 require consent from both NI and Irish electorates. There are also considerations regarding how to handle the integration in practical terms, integration to the health systems, timeline to adjusting local government changes to the Dail numbers and Seanad numbers, update electoral registers and campaign finance law absorbing the pain linked with a section of the community who might not accept the decision, updated to the number MEPs for Ireland. You will also see people attempt to put Commonwealth membership and Queen as Head of State as something to the Unionists, the question of the Ulster Scots language, modifications to the education structure and transitional periods to the Irish system, the impact on university funding, transition to the euro (and it would be nice if Schengen went on the table). All these are already being discussed at population level, although mot formally at government.

In short, I don't foresee an Irish Taoiseach being able to say United Ireland means United Ireland long after any referendum in the South accepting it because the referendum has to lay out a programme of next steps that covers: both Ireland and NI say yes, both NI and Ireland say no, and the outcome should one say no. Depending on which country says no, the next steps may be different.

Pity the UK didn't do that with Brexit.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sun Oct 17, 2021 6:50 am

temptar wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:32 pm
dyqik wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:23 pm
Of course, the EU has substantial regional development funds.

Those that used to go Cornwall and similar should be available but.
Not just the funds. There is expertise in neighbours for handling this too.
Bear in mind the UK was a net contributor to the EU, so we’ll still have that cash to spend.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by temptar » Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:02 am

A) you don't seem to have much cash atm given the cuts to universal credit and the tax increases and B) there are discussions about post unification transfers to Ireland for a transitional period. I was surprised by that. Plus there is all that State aid that sheldrake wants to give non-viable heavy industry.

The thing is, the rulebook for Britain has been torn up lately. We do not know what will be the outcome

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:20 am

No we don’t, but my point still stands.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by lpm » Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:24 am

I can't believe you've been trolled into arguing over whether the EU has the economic resources to support NI through reunification. NI is 0.5% of EU GDP.

Supporting tiny regions is kind of what the EU is all about.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Oct 17, 2021 11:48 am

temptar wrote:
Sun Oct 17, 2021 12:06 am

The message you are steadfastly ignoring is that we can rely on our friends.
You can expect to be treated exactly like Greece by the EU if your economy ever gets in that kind of trouble.
And ultimately, if NI is organisationally expensive, well that is after 100 years of UK operation. Congratulations.
It would be much poorer without the UK support it's had.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Cardinal Fang » Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:21 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:06 pm
Blah blah blah
I don't think YOU understand A16 in that you think it's the magic bullet that will make all of the Conservatives' problems go away and that just invoking it will make the entire NI protocol vanish

You're missing the bits about how any actions have to be the most limited possible to solve the problem, only be invoked after discussions between the EU and the UK on how to solve the issue and so on. The Tories and their apologists are presenting it as "give us what we want or we'll invoke it and scrap the whole deal". Which is not how A16 works.

You've still not explained why you think it is 100% the EU's fault for everything, when all it is doing is expecting the UK to abide by measures it's government negotiated, agreed to, signed to agree to, AND ratified the agreement saying they would do those things - because this is how it comes across with your stuck record "customs integrity" trope. There were after all other ways to have ensured that trade between GB and NI was unimpeded, whilst at the same time maintaining the GFA - and the EU would have agreed to them in all liklihood (for example keeping the whole of the UK in the single market for goods, which was BTW something promised by Vote Leave in 2016). It was the Conservatives who decided, without mandate, to pull the UK out of the single market and customs union. Now they seem to be expecting everyone else to fix the problems they caused, and also claiming it's the fault of every one else but them (the EU's for making them keep their word; businesses for not being properly prepared for something they were told wasn't going to happen. I'm sure they'll come up with a way of blaming asylum seekers and immigrants in due course)

We talk about "unionist" communities in NI. However the peace generation in NI, who grew up after the GFA, tend to identify less with the identities of "nationalist" vs "unionist". So although we think that everyone from a "Unionist" background would automatically vote to stay part of the UK in any referendum on whether reunify Ireland, a lot of the peace generation identify as European as well, and see the ignoring of the fact that NI voted to remain in 2016 by the Conservative government as a remote out-of-touch government imposing their wishes on them against their will (actually almost everywhere in the UK a lot of people under the age of about 45 feel that - that age group overwhelmingly voted remain and have been roundly ignored). They also see the prosperity and opportunity that membership of the EU has brought RoI. So it's likely that a chunck of the peace generation from a nominally Unionist backgrounds would also vote to reunify Ireland, to regain their inclusion in the EU as part of a member state and the dividends that brings.

If, say, consistent opinion polls, or a vote by a majority in the NI Assembly supported holding a referendum into reunifying Ireland, it would be difficult in seeing how the Westminster government could forbid a referendum.

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