Brexit Consequences

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Woodchopper
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:03 pm

philbo wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 1:20 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 12:50 pm
I can imagine an equilibrium in which the EU keeps rolling over the grace period, and the UK doesn't diverge from EU standards on food etc. Neither need concede in principle but both could recognize the status quo. The EU gets what it wants (no sub-standard products in its market) and the UK government gets what it wants (parts of the NI protocol not implemented). That situation could continue for years, so long as the UK isn't expected to change its standards (eg in another trade agreement with the US) or organized criminals don't exploit the fudge to the extent that the EU and UK have to act.
That appears to be the UK position, but hoping the EU don't notice/just let us carry on if/when standards change. Frost also seems to think this is a valid position, and any EU demurral is perfidy. I find it depressing and sad that we're in this kind of position :-(
Frost and Johnson will be banking upon the EU not wanting to take serious retaliatory action such as raising tariffs. As far as I know that would need a consensus among the EU27, which may not happen as restricting trade would come with costs, and more importantly, the EU27 and Commission have many bigger problems to deal with.

However, that lack of interest in taking action would probably evaporate if UK standards diverged, and UK businesses started gaining a competitive advantage, or if EU consumers were at risk from very dodgy products. At that point the cost benefit calculations would change.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by dyqik » Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:27 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 2:57 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 2:44 pm
The trade deal with Australia is already allowing goods (eg meat) into the UK that don't meet EU standards. I suppose they'll just take it on trust that none of it will be re-exported to NI etc.?
Some will get in. I expect that it may be tolerable if the quantities are very low. It'll be a problem of criminal groups start smuggling tons of it into the EU.
Or if the UK government start complaining about UK companies not being able to export it. Which I fully expect to happen.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:10 am

Marching season soon, which will hammer home to all parties just how complex this is, and how binary positions are untenable.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by shpalman » Mon Jul 12, 2021 9:26 pm

IMG_20210712_232616_932.jpg
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molto tricky

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by bmforre » Tue Jul 13, 2021 4:33 pm

plodder wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:10 am
... binary positions are untenable.
Yet holders cling to them tenuously.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jul 13, 2021 4:55 pm

holders gonna hold.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by temptar » Tue Jul 13, 2021 7:20 pm

plodder wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:10 am
Marching season soon, which will hammer home to all parties just how complex this is, and how binary positions are untenable.
A hefty majority of them are done as of today. You can't have failed to seethe bonfires over the weekend. At least one of them went viral on reddit. Marching season isn't really soon, it is actually out the otherwise of in full swing.

In short, that ship has likely mostly sailed.

But if I had to choose an area where binary opinions are held and tenacity is demonstrated in the holding of said opinions, it would be NI.

The key point is this: Brexit is damaging at macro and micro level. Most of UK government policy is trying to pretend it is not.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Brightonian » Mon Jul 19, 2021 2:35 am


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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Gfamily » Mon Jul 19, 2021 6:16 pm

My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:06 am

20 reasons why there is shortage of drivers in the UK
https://orynski.eu/20-reasons-why-there ... in-the-uk/

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by TopBadger » Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:53 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:06 am
20 reasons why there is shortage of drivers in the UK
https://orynski.eu/20-reasons-why-there ... in-the-uk/
Just waiting for the free market to step in... any time now... (checks watch)... the market will ensure those HGV drivers will be turning up in bucket loads soon (nervously tapping foot)... mark my words...
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Millennie Al » Tue Jul 20, 2021 11:58 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:53 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:06 am
20 reasons why there is shortage of drivers in the UK
https://orynski.eu/20-reasons-why-there ... in-the-uk/
Just waiting for the free market to step in... any time now... (checks watch)... the market will ensure those HGV drivers will be turning up in bucket loads soon (nervously tapping foot)... mark my words...
If you read through all of the linked article, you'll see that it's a market that is not very free. In fact, it's highly regulated with a bottleneck in thr UK preventing new drivers acquiring the necessary driving licence and another cause by the UK attitude to the EU limiting non-UK drivers. However, the market will exploit its limited freedom to address the shortage. Drivers' pay will rise as the shortage starts cutting off supplies. This will have two effects: some qualified drivers will start working in the UK when previously they wouldn't (i.e. instead of staying abroad, doing a different job, retiring etc), and prices of the goods will rise to the point that it suppresses demand until the demand is such that the number of drivers is sufficient. There is no reason to suppose this will reach a new equilibrium quickly.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Martin_B » Wed Jul 21, 2021 12:07 am

TopBadger wrote:
Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:53 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:06 am
20 reasons why there is shortage of drivers in the UK
https://orynski.eu/20-reasons-why-there ... in-the-uk/
Just waiting for the free market to step in... any time now... (checks watch)... the market will ensure those HGV drivers will be turning up in bucket loads soon (nervously tapping foot)... mark my words...
Yeah, but the free market isn't free enough. I mean, in a true free market anyone who wants to be an HGV driver should be allowed to do it - we don't need no pesky EU regulations like working hours directives, or driving licences!
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:04 am

There is quite a lot of b.llsh.t paperwork around HGV licences, especially the CPD requirements. £1000 to attend a powerpoint presentation from a bored “trainer” is about as good an example of pointless red tape as you could hope for.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:06 am

In other news, the UK will outline its “fresh thinking” on the NI protocol today. Can’t wait.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by veravista » Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:19 am

Yeah, if only the EU hadn't forced us into making an agreement we didn't want to.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Wed Jul 21, 2021 12:42 pm

lol, more kicking it into long grass during which time we promise to sort it all out.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... t-protocol

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Wed Jul 21, 2021 12:56 pm

Full doc is here:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... 1___2_.pdf

PM's intro is priceless, includes bluster and threats to proceed unilaterally.
In just over a year of negotiations, between November 2019 and the end of 2020, this Government completed our withdrawal from the EU and agreed a Trade and Cooperation Agreement – the broadest and most far-reaching bilateral trade agreement ever. Many said this would take years to complete or could not be done at all. We never believed that. Instead we delivered a platform for a new relationship between this country and the EU in record time.
Unfortunately one vital area of this partnership is not working well – the arrangements relating to Northern Ireland set out in the Northern Ireland Protocol. These arrangements represented a huge compromise by the UK, designed to protect the peace process and the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement in all its dimensions. We repeatedly proposed alternative means to achieve those ends, which we felt better reflected the reality of the situation. Nevertheless, having reached a difficult compromise on the final text of the Protocol, we expected both sides to recognise the need to apply and administer it in a way that took account of the unique context of Northern Ireland, as the Protocol itself requires. This was vital not just for trade and economic reasons, but also because of the sensitive issues around politics and national identity.

We as a Government have been trying to do just that. But it has already become clear that it is not possible to operate these arrangements in a way that can be sustained, particularly not in the inflexible way the EU seems to want.
lol, f.cking wind up merchants. Apparently most of the Commission are on holiday, too.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Wed Jul 21, 2021 1:01 pm

honestly, it needs to be read. apparently it was the remoaners that tied the government's hands and prevented them from negotiating a better deal (para 13, p9)

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Wed Jul 21, 2021 1:09 pm

I'm not picking up much in the way of compromise. Hopefully someone better on the details will be along in a minute.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by veravista » Wed Jul 21, 2021 2:33 pm

f.ck sake, it's always someone else's fault isn't it? The previous government my arse.

Perhaps if you'd have let some MPs and intelligent people actually read it before you signed it, maybe, just maybe, we wouldn't be in this sh.t?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Wed Jul 21, 2021 2:44 pm

that was politically impossible though.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by veravista » Wed Jul 21, 2021 2:52 pm

Politically impossible? No. Ideologically impossible? Yes.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:30 pm

no, politically impossible. remember all those options being put before a hung parliament, failing to get approval, followed by the general election?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by veravista » Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:54 pm

With the ERG and the DUP the loudest voices against any deal May came up with - yep, remember that.

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