Brexit Consequences

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veravista
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by veravista » Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:57 pm

plodder wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:56 pm
ok, so to take this to (what a free marketer would call) its logical conclusion, why encourage new engineers in the UK? Why prop up a dying industry? why not encourage all these maths whizzes to be bankers instead?
Because the only reason that the industries are dying is because they're being stifled by years of mismanagement and dumb Government policy. The big advantage with the broader engineering industries is huge diversity of people they can employ, if you take the aerospace industry for example they employ some of the best material scientists in the world and still have room for meaningful employment for the barely literate. The service sector in it's broadest terms (not just finance) can only do the same if there are people to serve. And how many bankers do we need?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jul 06, 2021 5:59 pm

veravista wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:57 pm
plodder wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:56 pm
ok, so to take this to (what a free marketer would call) its logical conclusion, why encourage new engineers in the UK? Why prop up a dying industry? why not encourage all these maths whizzes to be bankers instead?
Because the only reason that the industries are dying is because they're being stifled by years of mismanagement and dumb Government policy. The big advantage with the broader engineering industries is huge diversity of people they can employ, if you take the aerospace industry for example they employ some of the best material scientists in the world and still have room for meaningful employment for the barely literate. The service sector in it's broadest terms (not just finance) can only do the same if there are people to serve. And how many bankers do we need?
You could say the same about the service sector, which covers everything from writing software to making TV programs. A lot of the profits from the aerospace sector come from selling services - eg maintenance and training packages and licensing intellectual property. The same applies to much of the rest of manufacturing.

It’s a very good idea to have a diversified economy with a healthy manufacturing. But services and manufacturing are closely linked and one sector isn’t inherently better or worse than the other.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by IvanV » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:05 pm

veravista wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:57 pm
plodder wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:56 pm
ok, so to take this to (what a free marketer would call) its logical conclusion, why encourage new engineers in the UK? Why prop up a dying industry? why not encourage all these maths whizzes to be bankers instead?
Because the only reason that the industries are dying is because they're being stifled by years of mismanagement and dumb Government policy. The big advantage with the broader engineering industries is huge diversity of people they can employ, if you take the aerospace industry for example they employ some of the best material scientists in the world and still have room for meaningful employment for the barely literate. The service sector in it's broadest terms (not just finance) can only do the same if there are people to serve. And how many bankers do we need?
Engineering does pretty well in northern Italy despite it suffering from Italian government. So possibly crap government is not the main problem.

We have many more bankers than we need for our own purposes, because we are serving an international market. It is a common suggestion by serious economists that the financial services sector in Britain sucks up a lot of talent that might otherwise be available for other businesses in countries that don't have such a large and dominant and well-paid financial services sector. As Woodchopper says, no just engineering, but everything else. But let's take engineering as an example.

As Veravista suggests, there are world-class engineers available to British companies. Though crap engineering has also been a peristent problem in British industry, as anyone who owned a Morris Marina well knows. So perhaps there aren't enough good engineers available, even if we have quite a few of he best. But successful engineering businesses also need top-class management, and that may well be a key skill that is insufficiently available because it is sucked up by financial services. What ultimately ruined GEC was George Simpson, ie, management.

A common problem in Britain is that we come up with great innovations, but others make money out of them. Especially those that are destined for large scale development, and thus make most money, are taken to other countries to do that, because those other places have better conditions to achieve that. This has been going on for so long that it's a bit chicken and egg to try and solve it.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:18 pm

This is germane. To maintain the status quo we're going to need to open up immigration to others, if EU free movement is a thing of the past. Or our moaning millennials are going to have to develop the kind of work ethic their grandparents never had to bother with.

https://twitter.com/sarahoconnor_/statu ... 7631702016

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by veravista » Thu Jul 08, 2021 12:16 pm

Nothingtodowithbrexit, nothingtodowithbrexit

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... r-shortage

Increase lorry driver hours 'to allow slightly longer' journeys. No time specified. What could possibly go wrong?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Brightonian » Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:43 pm

UK has to pay EU €47.5 bn divorce settlement, rather more than anticipated: https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1233943/

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Millennie Al » Fri Jul 09, 2021 12:35 am

veravista wrote:
Thu Jul 08, 2021 12:16 pm
Nothingtodowithbrexit, nothingtodowithbrexit

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... r-shortage

Increase lorry driver hours 'to allow slightly longer' journeys. No time specified. What could possibly go wrong?
From https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... in-england Laura Salt of Steve Fellows Road Haulage Services in Branston, Staffordshire is quoted:
She isn’t impressed by proposals from the transport secretary, Grant Shapps, to extend drivers’ hours to tackle the shortage. “They work hard enough as it is, up to a 15-hour day, so extending their hours won’t solve it. They’re only human.”
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Jul 09, 2021 12:36 am

Something tells me that "relaxed" worker protections will be a permanent feature of brexit Britain.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Little waster » Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:19 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Jul 09, 2021 12:36 am
Something tells me that "relaxed" worker protections will be a permanent feature of brexit Britain.
I’m pretty sure that was on the bus too; right between “reignite the Troubles” and “increase imports of novel variant respiratory viruses”.

Just don’t let the traitorous Remoaner scum ever suggest that WE THE PEOPLE were ever less than 100% absolutely certain about what we were voting for.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by tom p » Fri Jul 09, 2021 8:42 am

Brightonian wrote:
Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:43 pm
UK has to pay EU €47.5 bn divorce settlement, rather more than anticipated: https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1233943/
It's actually only about £1bn more than the upper range of the previous estimate. About a 2.6% increase.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Fri Jul 09, 2021 10:13 am

tom p wrote:
Fri Jul 09, 2021 8:42 am
Brightonian wrote:
Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:43 pm
UK has to pay EU €47.5 bn divorce settlement, rather more than anticipated: https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1233943/
It's actually only about £1bn more than the upper range of the previous estimate. About a 2.6% increase.
Also "has to pay" as opposed to "would like them to pay"? I think there's still likely more haggling to be had.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by veravista » Fri Jul 09, 2021 10:35 am

It's in the accounts as a debt owing, will not have to be paid in one lump and is as agreed (again) by UK Gov. It may go up or down depending on various factors but the calculated amount (for now) was that that was agreed by both parties to be owing - which part of that do you not understand?

How far do you think the UK can push before the EU get serious - or rather as a 3rd country it is now entirely feasible that the individual member states can start getting arsey about it, no need for them to agree EU wide sanctions anymore, they can all gob on us individually from now on.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by jimbob » Sat Jul 10, 2021 8:42 pm

veravista wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 12:36 pm
plodder wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:55 am
cvb wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:16 am
It's almost as if the UK Governemt do not want to abide by the rules that they themselves negotiated because it does not suit them. The situation has not changed. The border has to be f.cking somewhere. Unless it is a reverse Schrodinger's border that is both not is the Irish sea and not on the isle of Ireland at the same f.cking time.

eta As pointed out above. This was known at the time they agreed this. f.cking c.nts.
Yes, Frost is essentially admitting that the UK has behaved like complete c.nts and they will continue to do so. But now what? A softer border is still the only realistic outcome. This is a negotiation, it's normal for people to act like a..eholes when their back is against the wall.
Wrong. How many times does it need saying? There is a border, negotiated and agreed by both the EU and UK. It's between the UK mainland and the island which contains Northern Ireland. Want to renegotiate that? Go back to the table and start talking and stop whining.
Exactly.

The Single Market needs an external border.
There cannot be a significant border on the island of Ireland
The border has to either be in the Irish Sea, or the UK needs to effectively be in the Single Market
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:54 am

If it ‘has’ to be those things, absolutely ‘has’ to, how come it isn’t like that right now?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Martin_B » Sun Jul 11, 2021 4:45 am

plodder wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:54 am
If it ‘has’ to be those things, absolutely ‘has’ to, how come it isn’t like that right now?
Because putting a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland would inflame tensions, and putting the border in the Irish Sea would be political suicide.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by veravista » Sun Jul 11, 2021 7:51 am

plodder wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:54 am
If it ‘has’ to be those things, absolutely ‘has’ to, how come it isn’t like that right now?
It 'is ' like that at the moment. just as it is between the UK and France. The fact that it's porous is UK Govs choosing and they have been granted grace periods for various goods - most which are ending in a couple of months. Try ordering something on line from Ireland NI or France - the red tape and delays are identical.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sun Jul 11, 2021 9:04 am

Martin_B wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 4:45 am
plodder wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:54 am
If it ‘has’ to be those things, absolutely ‘has’ to, how come it isn’t like that right now?
Because putting a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland would inflame tensions, and putting the border in the Irish Sea would be political suicide.
Then by definition, it doesn’t ‘have’ to be one of the two options, because it isn’t one of the two options.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sun Jul 11, 2021 9:05 am

veravista wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 7:51 am
plodder wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:54 am
If it ‘has’ to be those things, absolutely ‘has’ to, how come it isn’t like that right now?
It 'is ' like that at the moment. just as it is between the UK and France. The fact that it's porous is UK Govs choosing and they have been granted grace periods for various goods - most which are ending in a couple of months. Try ordering something on line from Ireland NI or France - the red tape and delays are identical.
You need a passport to cross the border, do you? There are checkpoints with big queues?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Sun Jul 11, 2021 9:07 am

Person 1) It must be A or B

Person 2) But what I am seeing is not A or B

Person 1) Stop your hideous trolling. It must be A or B

Person 2) <aside> who’s the troll here?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Martin_B » Sun Jul 11, 2021 10:04 am

plodder wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 9:04 am
Martin_B wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 4:45 am
plodder wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:54 am
If it ‘has’ to be those things, absolutely ‘has’ to, how come it isn’t like that right now?
Because putting a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland would inflame tensions, and putting the border in the Irish Sea would be political suicide.
Then by definition, it doesn’t ‘have’ to be one of the two options, because it isn’t one of the two options.
Well, Jimbob gave three options, not two (a significant border on the island of Ireland; a border in the Irish Sea; or the UK is in the Single Market), but there is also a 4th option, which is what we have now, which is Johnson fudges it and continues to fudge it and the compliant press laud it as marvelous negotiating by Frost et al.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by jimbob » Sun Jul 11, 2021 12:27 pm

Martin_B wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 10:04 am
plodder wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 9:04 am
Martin_B wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 4:45 am


Because putting a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland would inflame tensions, and putting the border in the Irish Sea would be political suicide.
Then by definition, it doesn’t ‘have’ to be one of the two options, because it isn’t one of the two options.
Well, Jimbob gave three options, not two (a significant border on the island of Ireland; a border in the Irish Sea; or the UK is in the Single Market), but there is also a 4th option, which is what we have now, which is Johnson fudges it and continues to fudge it and the compliant press laud it as marvelous negotiating by Frost et al.
The fudge is that Northern Ireland is effectively in the single market and there're customs checks in the Irish Sea. It's only sustainable as a pretence that Johnson is going to negotiate some way out of it. There is a solution where the UK is in the single market in all but name. Or maybe out of it for something that cannot physically be sent over the border - like services, which will damage the UK, but saves Johnson's face.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Jul 11, 2021 12:50 pm

Martin_B wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 10:04 am
plodder wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 9:04 am
Martin_B wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 4:45 am


Because putting a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland would inflame tensions, and putting the border in the Irish Sea would be political suicide.
Then by definition, it doesn’t ‘have’ to be one of the two options, because it isn’t one of the two options.
Well, Jimbob gave three options, not two (a significant border on the island of Ireland; a border in the Irish Sea; or the UK is in the Single Market), but there is also a 4th option, which is what we have now, which is Johnson fudges it and continues to fudge it and the compliant press laud it as marvelous negotiating by Frost et al.
I can imagine an equilibrium in which the EU keeps rolling over the grace period, and the UK doesn't diverge from EU standards on food etc. Neither need concede in principle but both could recognize the status quo. The EU gets what it wants (no sub-standard products in its market) and the UK government gets what it wants (parts of the NI protocol not implemented). That situation could continue for years, so long as the UK isn't expected to change its standards (eg in another trade agreement with the US) or organized criminals don't exploit the fudge to the extent that the EU and UK have to act.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by philbo » Sun Jul 11, 2021 1:20 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 12:50 pm
I can imagine an equilibrium in which the EU keeps rolling over the grace period, and the UK doesn't diverge from EU standards on food etc. Neither need concede in principle but both could recognize the status quo. The EU gets what it wants (no sub-standard products in its market) and the UK government gets what it wants (parts of the NI protocol not implemented). That situation could continue for years, so long as the UK isn't expected to change its standards (eg in another trade agreement with the US) or organized criminals don't exploit the fudge to the extent that the EU and UK have to act.
That appears to be the UK position, but hoping the EU don't notice/just let us carry on if/when standards change. Frost also seems to think this is a valid position, and any EU demurral is perfidy. I find it depressing and sad that we're in this kind of position :-(

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Jul 11, 2021 2:44 pm

The trade deal with Australia is already allowing goods (eg meat) into the UK that don't meet EU standards. I suppose they'll just take it on trust that none of it will be re-exported to NI etc.?
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Jul 11, 2021 2:57 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 2:44 pm
The trade deal with Australia is already allowing goods (eg meat) into the UK that don't meet EU standards. I suppose they'll just take it on trust that none of it will be re-exported to NI etc.?
Some will get in. I expect that it may be tolerable if the quantities are very low. It'll be a problem of criminal groups start smuggling tons of it into the EU.

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