Brexit Consequences

[sheldrake]

Huh?

The success of the vaccine program meant the UK could unlockdown a month or two earlier than our EU competitors.

Yes. I think this supports my point.

So you're arguing against yourself. The UK has had a bit longer to restart driving tests, begin HGV training again, get people off furlough and back to work. The economic quakes still rippling through the system should be easier for the UK than most places. But guess what, no, the country's still economically ill from Covid.

But so are lots of other countries, thats the thing you seem to have a blindspot about. UK economic growth is much higher than the EU average at the moment, we're less impacted by lockdown and isolation ripples than other countries.

[Opti]

Thanks, all you guys who quoted sheldrake. Confirms why I put him on 'ignore' ages ago.

[lpm]

And of course that vaccine "success" has translated into a higher case rate and a higher death rate than most of the rest of Europe but still you obviously don't have the benefits of lack of covid restrictions if your supply chains are so screwed compared to the rest of Europe.

Anyway most of Europe has caught up with, or overtaken, the UK's vaccination coverage now.

Well yes.

The country's other co-morbidity is being run by idiots.

[sheldrake]

And of course that vaccine "success" has translated into a higher case rate and a higher death rate than most of the rest of Europe but still you obviously don't have the benefits of lack of covid restrictions if your supply chains are so screwed compared to the rest of Europe.

Anyway most of Europe has caught up with, or overtaken, the UK's vaccination coverage now.

The vaccination coverage which mattered was in the elderly, which we were very far ahead on.

The following European countries currenly have higher excess deaths per head than the UK

Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Russia, Serbia, Moldova, Lithuania, Albania, Romania, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Montenegro, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Hungary, Croatia, Ukraine, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Spain, Portugal, Slovenia

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... hs-tracker

Your claim simply isn't true.

And as a quick reminder, the UK's economy is growing faster than most of the rest of Europe's https://tradingeconomics.com/country-li ... rowth-rate

Much of the the stuff people believe here just isn't factual. It's based on manipulative headlines from the Independent and the Guardian.

[bjn]

Brexit is a co-morbidity.

It's why other countries are able to shake off Covid disruption without too much impact while Britain suffers multiple symptoms.

I'm stealing that.

[bjn]

Thanks, all you guys who quoted sheldrake. Confirms why I put him on 'ignore' ages ago.

It's the intellectual equivalent of watching an idiot drunk fight a set of mixed martial artists who are tag team grounding and pounding him, but he is still screaming "I'll have youse all!!!!" whenever they stop for a breather.

Or the Black Night on the bridge in the Holy Grail who won't admit he's been defeated, even without any arms and legs, "Come back you bastard and I'll bite your ankles!".

It's fun to watch, but I can't be arsed participating in taking apart the dissembling fool.

[sheldrake]

There's literally a factual rebuttal with strong sources a couple of posts above what you just typed.

[shpalman]

And of course that vaccine "success" has translated into a higher case rate and a higher death rate than most of the rest of Europe but still you obviously don't have the benefits of lack of covid restrictions if your supply chains are so screwed compared to the rest of Europe.

Anyway most of Europe has caught up with, or overtaken, the UK's vaccination coverage now.

The vaccination coverage which mattered was in the elderly, which we were very far ahead on.

The following European countries currenly have higher excess deaths per head than the UK

Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Russia, Serbia, Moldova, Lithuania, Albania, Romania, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Montenegro, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Hungary, Croatia, Ukraine, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Spain, Portugal, Slovenia

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... hs-tracker

Your claim simply isn't true.

And as a quick reminder, the UK's economy is growing faster than most of the rest of Europe's https://tradingeconomics.com/country-li ... rowth-rate

Much of the the stuff people believe here just isn't factual. It's based on manipulative headlines from the Independent and the Guardian.

"a higher case rate... than most of the rest of Europe": Our World In Data daily new cases per 1 million people, 7 day rolling average

coronavirus-data-explorer.png (195.15 KiB) Viewed 1627 times

Only Serbia and Montenegro are substantially worse. Lithuania and Slovenia are similar. The UK is nearly 5 times higher than the EU rate.

"... a higher death rate than most of the rest of Europe": Our World In Data daily deaths etc.

The UK is about double the EU average. You're right that a lot of the smaller Eastern European countries have higher death rates, plus Russia which is so big it's not even all in Europe, so hey at least the British government is doing better than those places. But out of your list, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland have lower death rates.

[sheldrake]

But out of your list, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland have lower death rates.

My data is about excess deaths per capita, not cases. Spain, Portual, Italy, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland all have more excess deaths per capita.

[shpalman]

Well fine, my data and my original post was about case and death rates. So we can agree to differ slightly on that if you like.

Or at least try to figure out how many excess deaths per capita there have been in 2021 i.e. since vaccines became available. But we can do that in the Pandemic subforum.

[sheldrake]

Well fine, my data and my original post was about case and death rates. So we can agree to differ slightly on that if you like.

More specifically, they're about very recent deaths which have been attributed to Covid according to varying methodologies in each country (which is why excess deaths are often used for these comparisons).

If we filter the tiny countries out and extend the time-axis to when vaccination began in the UK you can see that the UK has clearly *not* suffered the most covid deaths per capita according to the methodology used by your source

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... OL~HUN~UKR

I don't really mind if this is moved to the Covid subforum, but it was being brought up to try and claim the UK hadn't benefitted from an independent vaccination policy (which of course, I think it has).

I would be interested in you addressing the economic data though. That also shows the UK growing strongly compared to most of the EU in 2021.

[shpalman]

Well fine, my data and my original post was about case and death rates. So we can agree to differ slightly on that if you like.

More specifically, they're about very recent deaths which have been attributed to Covid according to varying methodologies in each country (which is why excess deaths are often used for these comparisons).

If we filter the tiny countries out and extend the time-axis to when vaccination began in the UK you can see that the UK has clearly *not* suffered the most covid deaths per capita according to the methodology used by your source

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... OL~HUN~UKR

It would be better to switch to the cumulative plot and then you have to mentally shift them all down by various amounts to start at zero.

I don't really mind if this is moved to the Covid subforum, but it was being brought up to try and claim the UK hadn't benefitted from an independent vaccination policy (which of course, I think it has).

The UK could have followed the same course of vaccine action if it were an EU member

As the chief executive of the MHRA swiftly pointed out, Mr Hancock was wrong to say that the UK could approve the vaccine early because it was no longer subject to EU rules. The MHRA’s decision was taken in accordance with the relevant EU legislation, which allows member states to grant temporary authorisation for a medicinal product in response to the spread of infectious diseases (among others). [1] This legislation still applies to the UK until the end of the transition period. Any EU member state could have used the same provision of the legislation to approve the vaccine. They decided not to for political and technical reasons, not legal ones.

Similarly, the member states were in no way obliged to take part in the EU’s joint vaccine procurement scheme. The EU has very limited competences for public health under its founding treaties: it can take action only to “support, coordinate or supplement the actions of the Member States”. The EU member states in this case voluntarily decided to opt into the joint procurement scheme. If one or more of them had decided to follow the UK’s path and procure its own vaccines, no one would have stopped them.

1. Article 5(2) of Directive 2001/83/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 6 November 2001 on the Community code relating to medicinal products for human use.

I would be interested in you addressing the economic data though. That also shows the UK growing strongly compared to most of the EU in 2021.

I know nothing about economics in particular so I won't comment. But are you sure the UK isn't growing more now because it shrunk further before?

[sheldrake]

It would be better to switch to the cumulative plot and then you have to mentally shift them all down by various amounts to start at zero.

Cumulative plot still doesn't show the UK as worst in Europe, nor does switching to cumulative excess mortality (as a %). Puts UK middle of pack. Expect it would change further if excess mortality was age-adjusted.

The UK could have followed the same course of vaccine action if it were an EU member

Heard this claim in a few places, but nobody who has made has ever explained why we were the only European country which did actually follow that course?

I know nothing about economics in particular so I won't comment. But are you sure the UK isn't growing more now because it shrunk further before?

The rate at which an economy is able to grow is significantly a function of how healthy it is. If we were still crippled with lockdown measures we wouldn't be able to grow so fast. If Brexit had the effects which all the pre-referendum pundits had claimed, we wouldn't now be talking about why exports to the EU had grown (but not as fast as they claim it could have), we'd be picking through mass unemployment and a collapse in exports which never materialized.

[lpm]

I would be interested in you addressing the economic data though. That also shows the UK growing strongly compared to most of the EU in 2021.

I'll address that.

You get F for fail for misusing statistics.

The correct answer is "nobody knows".

The error bars are huge. The growth rate from 2020 to 2021 obviously depends on 2020, where nobody has a good grasp of what happened to GDP, as well as 2021, where nobody has a good grasp of what is happening to GDP.

The furlough scheme hasn't even ended yet, ffs. Everything is entirely artificial. It's like trying to measure the richter scale while objects are still falling from cupboards.

It'll be a good two years before we know how this shakes out.

[lpm]

The UK could have followed the same course of vaccine action if it were an EU member

Heard this claim in a few places, but nobody who has made has ever explained why we were the only European country which did actually follow that course?

You maybe missed Tom P's post, the one where he ripped your claim apart, pounded your argument into the dust and then gratuitously insulted you a few times.

It perhaps is in The Pit which has suddenly got a lot busier, can't think why.

[sheldrake]

I would be interested in you addressing the economic data though. That also shows the UK growing strongly compared to most of the EU in 2021.

I'll address that.

You get F for fail for misusing statistics.

The correct answer is "nobody knows".

The error bars are huge. The growth rate from 2020 to 2021 obviously depends on 2020, where nobody has a good grasp of what happened to GDP, as well as 2021, where nobody has a good grasp of what is happening to GDP.

The furlough scheme hasn't even ended yet, ffs. Everything is entirely artificial. It's like trying to measure the richter scale while objects are still falling from cupboards.

It'll be a good two years before we know how this shakes out.

Oh really. Just another 2? I think deep down you probably realise you are shuffling goalposts around a little bit

Please do link me to Tom’s erudite post in The Pit. Cant find it

[plodder]

perhaps it was this one

One back at the ever dissembling Sheldrake, what have we gained that has made up for the chaos? Ineffable “freedom from Brussels” will be considered pure dissembling.

Our vaccine program was faster than other EU countries'.

That was literally nothing to do with Brexit & anyone who thinks it was is a f.cking moron.
Oh, look who I'm replying to.

The MHRA approved the Pfizer vaccine (within an indecently short 24 hours, which fed a lot of vaccine hesitancy in the UK) using EU rules while the UK was still part of the EU regulatory system. The head of the MHRA, June Raine, stated as much at the time, clearly and unequivocally. This isn't a matter of opinion or debate, it's a fact.
The documents approving it were published online and an actually honest or inquisitive person is able to view them and see for themselves.
Hungary approved SinoVac & Sputnik using the same rules.
The vaccine purchasing scheme was entirely voluntary & Hungary among others have bought some vaccines outwith it, as well as within it.

[Bird on a Fire]

This thread is now officially the worst consequence of brexit.

[sheldrake]

perhaps it was this one

Our vaccine program was faster than other EU countries'.

That was literally nothing to do with Brexit & anyone who thinks it was is a f.cking moron.
Oh, look who I'm replying to.

The MHRA approved the Pfizer vaccine (within an indecently short 24 hours, which fed a lot of vaccine hesitancy in the UK) using EU rules while the UK was still part of the EU regulatory system. The head of the MHRA, June Raine, stated as much at the time, clearly and unequivocally. This isn't a matter of opinion or debate, it's a fact.
The documents approving it were published online and an actually honest or inquisitive person is able to view them and see for themselves.
Hungary approved SinoVac & Sputnik using the same rules.
The vaccine purchasing scheme was entirely voluntary & Hungary among others have bought some vaccines outwith it, as well as within it.

I have Tom muted because he's so abusive and angry. The argument opens with 'everybody who disagrees with me is a f.cking moron', which tells me I should keep the cloth over that particular bird's cage.

This post does not explain why other European countries didn't distribute vaccines as quickly. In particular it focusses on approvals and doesn't address the difference in contract negotations between the UK and other European countries. It does not address the EU commission seizing control of vaccines at borders or within plants because of the 'unfairness' of them not getting vaccines as fast as other nations that negotiated different contracts which were less onerous to the suppliers etc..

Even Junker agrees with me on this one https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... accine-war

[Trinucleus]

There's a general shortage of HGV drivers across the continent.

That means they will pick and choose which jobs they do.

Driving in the EU with no hassle with customs checks

Or driving to/from the UK with customs checks at every border.

You decide

[Lew Dolby]

Our vaccine program is a very clear refutation of the idea that brexit left us ‘less able to adapt’.

There's nothing in EU membership that would have stopped the UK running its vaccine programme exactly the way it has. Every other EU country is running its own programme - there's no universal EU system for vacs.

[Woodchopper]

perhaps it was this one

That was literally nothing to do with Brexit & anyone who thinks it was is a f.cking moron.
Oh, look who I'm replying to.

The MHRA approved the Pfizer vaccine (within an indecently short 24 hours, which fed a lot of vaccine hesitancy in the UK) using EU rules while the UK was still part of the EU regulatory system. The head of the MHRA, June Raine, stated as much at the time, clearly and unequivocally. This isn't a matter of opinion or debate, it's a fact.
The documents approving it were published online and an actually honest or inquisitive person is able to view them and see for themselves.
Hungary approved SinoVac & Sputnik using the same rules.
The vaccine purchasing scheme was entirely voluntary & Hungary among others have bought some vaccines outwith it, as well as within it.

I have Tom muted because he's so abusive and angry. The argument opens with 'everybody who disagrees with me is a f.cking moron', which tells me I should keep the cloth over that particular bird's cage.

This post does not explain why other European countries didn't distribute vaccines as quickly. In particular it focusses on approvals and doesn't address the difference in contract negotations between the UK and other European countries. It does not address the EU commission seizing control of vaccines at borders or within plants because of the 'unfairness' of them not getting vaccines as fast as other nations that negotiated different contracts which were less onerous to the suppliers etc..

Even Junker agrees with me on this one https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... accine-war

Some EU member states did have vaccination programmes that were independent of the EU process.

Hungary quickly approved the Russian Sputnik vaccine and the Chinese Sinopharm vaccine (which have not yet been approved by the EU).
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55747623
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2AN17S

Slovakia also approved and distributed the Russian vaccine: https://apnews.com/article/russia-europ ... 3d45aafa73

[sheldrake]

Did everybody read the Guardian article giving Junker's commentary on how the EU Comission under Van Der Leyen was making a mess of vaccination rollout? All of you have, I hope? Superb.

Two questions: -

1) Why did so many major EU countries (the majority) get impacted by that mess? I would like people to address what actually happened here.

2) If the UK had been in the EU at the time, do you think we would have been part of that mess too, or no?

[Woodchopper]

Did everybody read the Guardian article giving Junker's commentary on how the EU Comission under Van Der Leyen was making a mess of vaccination rollout? All of you have, I hope? Superb.

Two questions: -

1) Why did so many major EU countries (the majority) get impacted by that mess? I would like people to address what actually happened here.

They treated it as a normal piece of procurement: wait until you know the product works, then negotiate a good price. Whereas the UK signed expensive contracts with several vaccine producers much earlier. Purely in financial terms I think that the UK had the better strategy as the benefit to the economy of opening sooner could be assumed to have outweighed the higher cost of vaccine procurement.

2) If the UK had been in the EU at the time, do you think we would have been part of that mess too, or no?

The above examples of Hungary and Slovakia show that the UK could have approved and procured vaccines independently. Whether it would have depends upon who was in charge in your alternate history. Johnson probably would have, May probably wouldn’t have had the imagination.

[jimbob]

I have a nice chat about whether her back still hurts / poofs are the problem / I'm not sure about that I know some nice gay people / the illegals are the problem / well, my family comes from another country and we're ok / your dog is playing with my dog / isn't that nice / can I borrow a poo bag / thanks you look after yourself / hope your back feels better soon

now we can also talk about how the remoaners aren't driving enough lorries or whatever batshit route the Brexit lot are taking on their journey to common sense.

There's a touching warmth and generosity of spirit undernearth right there. Well done. I don't think it's actually remoaners or brexiters causing supply problems, mind you. Covid lockdown rules and formerly inadequate pay I reckon. These supply issues are showing up all over the world https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... on-squeeze

That link is from July and it mentions semiconductors not food.

Indeed and that is related to Covid, with demand increasing in places like China and the US and also lots of far-East assembly areas being hit by Covid - at least based on my experience