Brexit Consequences

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:15 am

And to be clear, the bus lie wasn't just that the UK gives £350m/week to the EU. It was also a clear statement that the money would go to the NHS.

How much has the NHS budget risen since the referendum?
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by shpalman » Sun Sep 26, 2021 12:05 pm

Great news as Lincolnshire farm will pay you £30 an hour to pick broccoli which foreigners were previously coming over here and taking from you.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 26, 2021 3:25 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:15 am
And to be clear, the bus lie wasn't just that the UK gives £350m/week to the EU. It was also a clear statement that the money would go to the NHS.

How much has the NHS budget risen since the referendum?
In inflation adjusted 2020 pounds it has increased by ~21 billion between 2016 and 2021. £350 million per week is 18.2 billion.
This is before allowing for the additional 'emergency covid funding' shown in light purple here

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/n ... nhs-budget

However, the idea that the leave campaign was promising to actually change NHS funding themselves is wrong. The actual spending choices were up to the government of the day, which was a Tory govt. using public funds to campaign for remain.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 26, 2021 4:09 pm

snoozeofreason wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:12 am
The 350 million claim was a lie, and was called out by the UK Statistics Authority, Full Fact, More or Less, and pretty much anyone else who you might want to listen to if you were interested in accurate statistics.
Fullfact isn't a real source. This claim was literally tested in court https://order-order.com/2019/07/04/judg ... ss-figure/ You are living in a post-truth reality bubble sustained by embittered Guardian and Independent journalists who've been wrong about basically everything.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Opti » Sun Sep 26, 2021 4:18 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 12:05 pm
Great news as Lincolnshire farm will pay you £30 an hour to pick broccoli which foreigners were previously coming over here and taking from you.
I notice it's piecework, and the rate is 'up to'. No doubt a few skilled Romanian or Bulgarian workers could get close to it, but I doubt any local Lincolnshire unemployed would get anything like.
Time for a big fat one.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 26, 2021 4:40 pm

Are you pleased that higher wages are being offered for this kind of work?

I think this will be a pivotal question in the next election. Working class people aren't going to vote for people seen to be against them being paid more for 'the wrong kind of work'. A Labour party that is seen to be against workers earning more is going to be in a very weird place, in particular.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by shpalman » Sun Sep 26, 2021 5:01 pm

Well it's implied that this is more than before, but it's not explicit how much a broccoli picker was really earning before and how much they will actually earn now.

But I would be disappointed if that turned out to be minimum wage or less unless unrealistic 'piecework' targets were met, for example. I personally don't mind my food being a bit more expensive to cover that but then I'm unlikely to be buying English broccoli in the supermarket here in Italy so it's moot.

There is a certain strand of (ex) labour voter that wanted exactly this, though; they felt the foreigners were undercutting them on wages. Well, now we'll see who actually wants to do this job in particular.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Gfamily » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:33 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 4:09 pm
snoozeofreason wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:12 am
The 350 million claim was a lie, and was called out by the UK Statistics Authority, Full Fact, More or Less, and pretty much anyone else who you might want to listen to if you were interested in accurate statistics.
Fullfact isn't a real source. This claim was literally tested in court https://order-order.com/2019/07/04/judg ... ss-figure/ You are living in a post-truth reality bubble sustained by embittered Guardian and Independent journalists who've been wrong about basically everything.
Point of Order: "Order Order" isn't a real source either.
The High Court's finding was had nothing to say about the truth or otherwise of the £350 million claim.
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl ... -final.pdf
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:48 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:33 pm

Point of Order: "Order Order" isn't a real source either.
The High Court's finding was had nothing to say about the truth or otherwise of the £350 million claim.
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl ... -final.pdf
"The alleged offence set out in the Application for Summons is that the Claimant
“repeatedly made and endorsed false and misleading statements concerning the cost of
the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union”. It appears that if the
Claimant had said/endorsed a figure of £350m per week gross, or £250m per week net,
there would have been no complaint."

Net revenue is revenue less that which UK govt does not have the right to spend as it wishes. The rebate was always slated to go by 2020 if we hadn't left.

Here is Johnson clearly stating the difference between gross and net https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7AZJfodiVU&t=80s
He did this numerous times. This rage over the perfectly accurate 350 million just makes die-hard remainers sound nuts in 2021.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Gfamily » Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:27 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:48 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:33 pm

Point of Order: "Order Order" isn't a real source either.
The High Court's finding was had nothing to say about the truth or otherwise of the £350 million claim.
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl ... -final.pdf
"The alleged offence set out in the Application for Summons is that the Claimant
“repeatedly made and endorsed false and misleading statements concerning the cost of
the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union”. It appears that if the
Claimant had said/endorsed a figure of £350m per week gross, or £250m per week net,
there would have been no complaint."

Net revenue is revenue less that which UK govt does not have the right to spend as it wishes. The rebate was always slated to go by 2020 if we hadn't left.

Here is Johnson clearly stating the difference between gross and net https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7AZJfodiVU&t=80s
He did this numerous times. This rage over the perfectly accurate 350 million just makes die-hard remainers sound nuts in 2021.
Oh dear. You just don't get it do you
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Opti » Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:38 pm

Is he stuck with all the other fuckwits in a never ending petrol queue?
I love it when y'all quote him. He's not funny enough to take off 'ignore'.
Time for a big fat one.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:45 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:27 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:48 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:33 pm

Point of Order: "Order Order" isn't a real source either.
The High Court's finding was had nothing to say about the truth or otherwise of the £350 million claim.
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl ... -final.pdf
"The alleged offence set out in the Application for Summons is that the Claimant
“repeatedly made and endorsed false and misleading statements concerning the cost of
the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union”. It appears that if the
Claimant had said/endorsed a figure of £350m per week gross, or £250m per week net,
there would have been no complaint."

Net revenue is revenue less that which UK govt does not have the right to spend as it wishes. The rebate was always slated to go by 2020 if we hadn't left.

Here is Johnson clearly stating the difference between gross and net https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7AZJfodiVU&t=80s
He did this numerous times. This rage over the perfectly accurate 350 million just makes die-hard remainers sound nuts in 2021.
Oh dear. You just don't get it do you
I do get it. How did you like the figures showing NHS spending went up more than that since 2016? :)

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by veravista » Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:16 pm

Would just like to drop in that we left Edinburgh this morning, went past at least 4 garages with loads of fuel and no queues, and it wasn't until we got to Derby that we saw the first significant tailback and a completely shut services petrol station.

Go sweaties!

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Millennie Al » Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:31 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:48 pm
Net revenue is revenue less that which UK govt does not have the right to spend as it wishes. The rebate was always slated to go by 2020 if we hadn't left.
The statement “We send the EU £350 million a week let’s fund our NHS instead” cannot reasonably be interpreted to refer to a gross amount as only the net amount can be diverted to other things. Furthermore, even the net amount consists of some expenditure which clearly benefits the UK and which we would not want to divert. So it's clearly an untrue statement. What was due to happen in 2020 was irrelevant as it said "We send" nor "We will send".
Here is Johnson clearly stating the difference between gross and net https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7AZJfodiVU&t=80s
He did this numerous times. This rage over the perfectly accurate 350 million just makes die-hard remainers sound nuts in 2021.
Why do you keep citing sources which contradict what you claim? That clip shows that Boris knew what the statement meant and that it was both superficially and fundamentally untrue. He wasn't making an innocent mistake in defending the statement - he was deliberately attempting to deceive people.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Millennie Al » Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:34 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:13 am
lpm wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:19 am
It's sad to see Shelly knows Johnson & Co are shameless liars. But trots out their lies nonetheless.
You are deacribing a looking-glass reality where Cameron’s, the BOE’s and the Treasury’s grim predictions came true. They didnt. Not even close.
When one person tells a lie, it is no defence to say that someone else also was wrong or lied. To claim otherwise is to show a complete lack of understand of what lying is.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:36 pm

Millennie Al wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:31 pm


The statement “We send the EU £350 million a week let’s fund our NHS instead” cannot reasonably be interpreted to refer to a gross amount as only the net amount can be diverted to other things.
Wrong. The difference between the gross and net amounts which remains after the rebate ends represents that which is sent back to the UK to be spent on regional development programs. Once the gross amount is under parliamentary control it no longer has to be spent on those programs but can be diverted to the NHS. The rebate was due to end in 2020 if we'd stayed.
Furthermore, even the net amount consists of some expenditure which clearly benefits the UK and which we would not want to divert.
Bold and unjustifiable assumption. That's a parliamentary choice. Each time we elect a government we're expressing a preference about how it should be used, now we've left.
Why do you keep citing sources which contradict what you claim? That clip shows that Boris knew what the statement meant and that it was both superficially and fundamentally untrue. He wasn't making an innocent mistake in defending the statement - he was deliberately attempting to deceive people.
It was true, and from your commentary above I can see that you have misunderstood some very basic things about what the net amount represented. The meme that Brexit is unfair and not really democratic because it was based on the untruthiness of the other side's beliefs is one of the maddest political theories of modern Britain. It's dwindling band of proponents just sound crazier by the year.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by WFJ » Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:41 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:48 pm
... The rebate was always slated to go by 2020 if we hadn't left ...
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:36 pm
... The rebate was due to end in 2020 if we'd stayed ...
No it wasn't. At least it was no more likely to happen than it was at any time in the last ca. 20 years.

Every time the EU budget was up for negotiation Britain's rebate was brought up as a discussion point. Britain would say "Well we got the rebate because of CAP, which is 40+ years out of date. We will agree to renegotiate the rebate if we reform CAP". France would say "Non!", and whole thing would get pushed back to and repeated in the next EU budget negotiation. There is no reason to think 2020 would be any different.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:49 pm

WFJ wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:41 pm


No it wasn't. At least it was no more likely to happen than it was at any time in the last ca. 20 years.

Every time the EU budget was up for negotiation Britain's rebate was brought up as a discussion point. Britain would say "Well we got the rebate because of CAP, which is 40+ years out of date. We will agree to renegotiate the rebate if we reform CAP". France would say "Non!", and whole thing would get pushed back to and repeated in the next EU budget negotiation. There is no reason to think 2020 would be any different.
The EU's budget chief publicly stated, after many years of other countries lobbying for us to lose the rest of our rebate (Blair gave up 20% of it in 2005) that the UK would lose its rebate even if it stayed in the EU
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-brit ... KKCN1MM1PV

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by WFJ » Mon Sep 27, 2021 12:32 am

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:49 pm
WFJ wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:41 pm


No it wasn't. At least it was no more likely to happen than it was at any time in the last ca. 20 years.

Every time the EU budget was up for negotiation Britain's rebate was brought up as a discussion point. Britain would say "Well we got the rebate because of CAP, which is 40+ years out of date. We will agree to renegotiate the rebate if we reform CAP". France would say "Non!", and whole thing would get pushed back to and repeated in the next EU budget negotiation. There is no reason to think 2020 would be any different.
The EU's budget chief publicly stated, after many years of other countries lobbying for us to lose the rest of our rebate (Blair gave up 20% of it in 2005) that the UK would lose its rebate even if it stayed in the EU
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-brit ... KKCN1MM1PV
No he did not state that, and had no authority to decide that. The EU budget has to be agreed unanimously within the EU council. From your link, what he said was:
I think that even for the pleasant but improbable case that the British wish to remain... then in my budgetary framework I would stick to the phased ending of rebates. The rebates, in a family of 27, are no longer appropriate.
ie. he wanted the rebates to end. But look what happened when the 2020 Budget negotiations ended.

This was in 2018, after the UK voted to leave. At the time it was suggested that the EU could force the UK to give up its rebate as a condition if it revoked A50 and chose to stay. The ECJ later ruled this was wrong, and Britain could chose to cancel Brexit without conditions.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:59 am


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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:13 am

 ! Message from The Management
Hello. Nazi Authoritarian Founder here.

The £700m a fortnight discussion has been held pretty much continuously by teams of argumentative overly online bored people for the last five and a half years. It's boring. I'm bored. Neither side is going to agree. It's time to move on to other topics.

Discussion on the matter will now cease. Any further posts on it will result in the discussion being hived off to The Pit and locked. If further discussion continues here in spite of that, this thread will be locked.

Cheers.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by veravista » Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:27 am

Nazi

sheldrake
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by sheldrake » Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:56 am

In other news, UK equities still undervalued https://www.cityam.com/exclusive-fund-m ... and-covid/

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by lpm » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:20 am

Undervalued? If you say so.

What is causing them to be undervalued? Why aren't investors picking up these too-cheap UK equitiies? Is it that investors don't have faith in the quality of government Or investors think Brexit impacts are going to be worse than thought? Or fears of a fourth wave? Where is this investor pessimism coming from?
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Brightonian » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:21 am

sheldrake wrote:
Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:56 am
In other news, UK equities still undervalued https://www.cityam.com/exclusive-fund-m ... and-covid/
Fill yer boots. And it's entirely right that we should reward these fund managers by buying up stock in return for exclusively sharing their unique insights.

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