Brexit Consequences

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nekomatic
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by nekomatic » Tue May 18, 2021 12:09 pm

The other way you can tell genuine Royal Mail texts apart from scam ones is that the scam ones can arrive at any time of day, whereas the Royal Mail ones are always scheduled for HALF PAST FIVE IN THE F.CKING MORNING

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue May 18, 2021 12:51 pm

I can tell because I live abroad and Royal Mail don't deliver here. I still get the texts though.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Cardinal Fang » Tue May 18, 2021 5:32 pm

Image

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by shpalman » Tue May 18, 2021 5:51 pm

Cardinal Fang wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 5:32 pm
Old Nige is a bit cross about something

CF
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by jimbob » Tue May 18, 2021 9:17 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 10:26 am
plodder wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 9:58 am
The land will just be used as private gardens for the mega affluent.

The idea that we keep subsiding sheep in the UK is bonkers, they are hugely counter-productive to all sorts of important metrics.
A lot of it is within national parks and AOANBs etc - there's a chance the UK might sort out its legislation on those designations, so that they manage land for conservation instead of aesthetics. I can't image many mega affluent are enormously bothered about having a private garden 50 miles from their country house on the other side of a big hill.

The biggest obstacle to that kind of change would be the grouse c.nts, but I guess the gov could just write in some loophole about "protecting traditional industries".

Agree with your last sentence completely - bonkers is the word.
Isn't that what grouse moors are in effect?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue May 18, 2021 9:27 pm

According to the shooting industry they are a vital source of rural jobs (from memory about 9000, which isn't much considering the area they take up and the damage they do). But still, I'd prefer a solution that didn't leave those people unemployed.

Nature tourism to see things like birds of prey is often touted as an alternative. Personally I'm always a bit wary of depending on tourism as it seems to be quite a fickle beast.

But yes I take your point that they're basically play-areas for the loaded and violent.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Millennie Al » Wed May 19, 2021 2:06 am

Little waster wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 10:24 am
In other news

The typically underwhelming Frost (pictured yesterday) hopes that EU won't react to being slapped in the face with a wet fish by slapping the UK in the face with a fish in return because that wouldn't be in any (well ... his) best interests.
Not this David Frost, surely?
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Millennie Al » Wed May 19, 2021 2:09 am

I think he has slightly misunderstood what Americans mean by "free speech". You can actually charge for it over there.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu May 20, 2021 4:05 am

Interesting thread on sugar imports under the Oz deal
https://mobile.twitter.com/Tom_Clarke/s ... 4677774342

Once again British producers getting shafted, but bigger profits for a company that funds the right politicians.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Fri May 21, 2021 6:46 am

BORIS Johnson will offer Australia a 15 year transition to an historic zero tariff, zero quota trade deal, The Sun can reveal.

Trade Secretary Liz Truss has the Cabinet’s blessing to ink such a post-Brexit accord with our longstanding ally despite fierce resistance from Britain’s farmers.

Agriculture has been running sore in the trade negotiations - with the Aussie’s pushing for a rapid five year slashing of all import and export taxes on goods.

But amid fears our farmers could be undercut by an influx of cheaper Aussie beef and lamb, the decade and half bulwark was agreed by the inner-Cabinet committee in charge of talks.

The offer will now be made to the Australian side - with ministerial sources confident an agreement is now in sight despite further haggling to be done on the exact length of the transition.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/ ... ears-time/

Johnson gets the symbolism now and his successors have to deal with the consequences.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by shpalman » Thu May 27, 2021 2:46 pm

UK border officials treating EU visitors like sh.t

(another relatively insignificant consequence was that my order from Naughton & Wilson was cancelled and refunded: "UPS have informed us that they are unwilling to deliver our fragrance to your country from the UK at this time due to having a large number of perfume products rejected since the UK left the EU (Brexit).")
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu May 27, 2021 5:21 pm

It's not really brexit related, but I did enjoy this story of an elderly British couple who've loved in France since 2015, but speak so little French that they have been eating cat food thinking it's pate https://metro.co.uk/2021/05/24/elderly- ... -14639365/?

They also failed to spot the cat on the packaging.

I'm sure folk like that are also struggling with anything administrative they have to do in these sunny brexit uplands. Unless they're just closet colmq fans.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by shpalman » Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:37 pm

It turns out that the politically, technically, and/or logically impossible thing still hasn't been done for some reason.
Over the weekend, Frost wrote in the Financial Times that he was a f.cking moron who didn't have a clue about the job he'd been given but was still trying to blame Brussels for it while hoping that they would somehow help.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by TopBadger » Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:51 am

shpalman wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:37 pm
It turns out that the politically, technically, and/or logically impossible thing still hasn't been done for some reason.
Over the weekend, Frost wrote in the Financial Times that he was a f.cking moron who didn't have a clue about the job he'd been given but was still trying to blame Brussels for it while hoping that they would somehow help.
One wonders how long can the fudge last? It seems to be something the EU can tolerate for a while (indeed it has) but will their tolerance of the lack of checks become permanent and if not what follows?
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by shpalman » Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:52 pm

"stop being an idiot"
Ultimately, there are only two options. One is that the protocol becomes permanent and Northern Ireland does indeed become part of an all-Ireland integrated economy. For that there are any number of sound arguments, which Johnson is probably too gutless to grasp. The other is that Britain extends the Northern Ireland deal to the whole of the UK. In effect, it signs itself up to EU regulatory standards across the whole range of goods covered by last year’s “no tariff” deal. In other words, Johnson eats humble pie and negotiates a return, not to the EU but to some version of Europe’s common economic area.
molto tricky

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by IvanV » Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:53 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:52 pm
Ultimately, there are only two options. One is that the protocol becomes permanent and Northern Ireland does indeed become part of an all-Ireland integrated economy. For that there are any number of sound arguments, which Johnson is probably too gutless to grasp. The other is that Britain extends the Northern Ireland deal to the whole of the UK. In effect, it signs itself up to EU regulatory standards across the whole range of goods covered by last year’s “no tariff” deal. In other words, Johnson eats humble pie and negotiates a return, not to the EU but to some version of Europe’s common economic area.
So, Mr Johnson, will it be Cake or Eat It?

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by bjn » Tue Jun 08, 2021 2:57 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:52 pm
"stop being an idiot"
Ultimately, there are only two options. One is that the protocol becomes permanent and Northern Ireland does indeed become part of an all-Ireland integrated economy. For that there are any number of sound arguments, which Johnson is probably too gutless to grasp. The other is that Britain extends the Northern Ireland deal to the whole of the UK. In effect, it signs itself up to EU regulatory standards across the whole range of goods covered by last year’s “no tariff” deal. In other words, Johnson eats humble pie and negotiates a return, not to the EU but to some version of Europe’s common economic area.
Neither are politically possible in the UK given what was promised by the Brexiters and Johnson. Expect an even bigger cluster f.ck and much blaming of the EU for it, even though it is entirely of the UK's making.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by IvanV » Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:56 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 2:57 pm
Neither are politically possible...
When you push yourself into a corner of two politically unacceptable alternatives, then the outcome can be interesting. Argentina and Greece present cases in point.

In late 2001, the IMF was refusing to release the next tranche of Argentina's (several times renegotiated) bail-out deal, because the government had not cut their expenditure by 10%, anywhere near, despite having 3 times signed a deal to do so. The government said cutting expenditure by anywhere near 10% was not politically acceptable. IMF replied that they provide loans, not charity, and money is not forthcoming unless they run a feasible budget to repay. You've had 3 chances, your trustworthiness is at low ebb, so demonstrate willingness or no money is coming.

There were riots in the streets against the IMF demands. When Argentina said both options were plolitically unacceptable, it wasn't making it up. In consequence, in just 2 weeks from late December 2001 to early January 2002, Argentina had 5 presidents. Fernando de la Rúa resigned on 20 December 2001. Ramón Puerta, Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, and Eduardo Camaño lasted only a few days each. Eduardo Duhalde brought the procession to an end on 2 January 2002.

Essentially the people would not accept what these presidents said to them, it's cut the budget or default. Eventually, they defaulted, and once they realised there was no rescue coming the procession of presidents ceased. The default was far worse than the 10% cut in government expenditure would have been. Indeed, arguably Argentina has never properly recovered from it. Rates of poverty are still higher than in 2001.

Greece went through a similar argument with the ECB in the Euro crisis. Things reached a head when an election brought a new party of left-wing populists to power, Syriza, whose policy was that they deserved better from the ECB. They started off by reversing some of the cuts and sensible reforms of the previous goverment, even though they couldn't afford it. They held a referendum to refuse the ECB's deal. But it was that or default and crash out of the Euro. It was described at the time as a vote on whether the Germans should give them more money. The people voted for being given more money, but couldn't make the Germans hand it over. When it came to the crunch, doubtless with the example of Argentina in their minds, the populist no compromise politicians discovered they could compromise after all and took the ECB's deal, regardless of it being not what was instructed in the referendum, and now, several months later, even worse than the deal they put to a referendum. Ironically, by the time they got to that point, they'd so emptied the Greek Treasury that they no longer had anything to cushion a default, and it would have been far more devastating than previously. Indeed if Greece had defaulted back at the start of the crisis, by then some years back, they'd probably have been better off than they eventually were.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by bjn » Tue Jun 08, 2021 5:21 pm

Slightly off topic, but the austerity imposed on Greece collapsed huge chunks of the economy, yes some reforms were needed, but collapsing the economy was not the way to do it. Also, the EU/ECB/Germany were not innocent in the whole processes, they knew Greece was fudging the numbers mahoosively when they applied to join the Euro, and let them join anyway. They should bare some of the blame for the fiasco as their knowing actions led to unsustainable Greek private borrowing after they joined the Euro.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by shpalman » Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:50 am

sausages
that idiot David Frost wrote:“Further threats of legal action and trade retaliation from the EU won’t make life any easier for the shopper in Strabane who can’t buy their favourite product. Nor will it benefit the small business in Ballymena struggling to source produce from their supplier in Birmingham.”
What would make life easier for them, you failure at your one job, would be for the rest of the UK to accept alignment with EU standards.
The protocol has been hugely controversial in Northern Ireland, contributing to violence over Easter and fissures in the Democratic Unionist party, which is officially campaigning to have it scrapped, having helped enable this whole f.cking shitshow in the first place.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by IvanV » Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:51 am

bjn wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 5:21 pm
Slightly off topic, but the austerity imposed on Greece collapsed huge chunks of the economy, yes some reforms were needed, but collapsing the economy was not the way to do it. Also, the EU/ECB/Germany were not innocent in the whole processes, they knew Greece was fudging the numbers mahoosively when they applied to join the Euro, and let them join anyway. They should bare some of the blame for the fiasco as their knowing actions led to unsustainable Greek private borrowing after they joined the Euro.
You are quite right. EU/ECB/Germany did have much more responsibility than they acknowledged. But I don't take Varoufakis' argument that Greece was mostly an innocent sufferer of problems they imposed on it. (His books bear some unfortunate comparison to Lomborg's in the way he justifies his arguments, some good economics to soften you up for the "clever" arguments.) Greece had many choices and made many bad decisions which they knew the consequences of. Syriza's unrealism over what kind of deal was even plausible resulted in far more pain for Greece than was necessary. In the end they backed themselves into a corner and had to take the bad deal on offer at that moment.

This is the message for Britain. If we aren't careful we will back ourselves into a corner, and have to take one of the unpalatable options available. Arguably we already did this with May's red lines. But we can do it again.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jun 09, 2021 12:28 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:50 am
sausages
that idiot David Frost wrote:“Further threats of legal action and trade retaliation from the EU won’t make life any easier for the shopper in Strabane who can’t buy their favourite product. Nor will it benefit the small business in Ballymena struggling to source produce from their supplier in Birmingham.”
If the Northern Ireland market is big enough, and with almost 2 million it should be, aren’t we just going to see the favourite brands set up production there? That would involve higher costs but I don’t really see how people are going to be permanently denied their favourite foods.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by kerrya1 » Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:34 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 12:28 pm
shpalman wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:50 am
sausages
that idiot David Frost wrote:“Further threats of legal action and trade retaliation from the EU won’t make life any easier for the shopper in Strabane who can’t buy their favourite product. Nor will it benefit the small business in Ballymena struggling to source produce from their supplier in Birmingham.”
If the Northern Ireland market is big enough, and with almost 2 million it should be, aren’t we just going to see the favourite brands set up production there? That would involve higher costs but I don’t really see how people are going to be permanently denied their favourite foods.
But is that really big enough? Northern Ireland is only ~3% of the UK population so would it really be worthwhile a company that has a big factory in mainland UK setting up a whole new plant, with new supply lines, etc just for that 3%? If the factory was going to serve the whole island of Ireland then that would give a population of ~7million, but there would need to be no border on the island to maximise efficiency.

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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by shpalman » Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:42 pm

Talks between the UK and the EU aimed at resolving the dispute over Brexit checks in Northern Ireland have ended without agreement.

"So, you need Britain to sign up to the EU's standards."

"No, we want control over our own laws i.e. being able to treat the workers worse and feed the people worse food"

"So, you need to check everything going from Britain to Northern Ireland."

"No, because this will break up the UK and the unionists will complain because they want to be part of Britain apart from when it suits them to have laws which are more bigoted."

"So, you need to check anything leaving Northern Ireland in the direction of Ireland."

"No, because the Good Friday agreement will be ruined and stuff might start blowing up in London again."

"So, you need Britain to sign up to the EU's standards."

"No..."

"So, you need to check everything going from Britain to Northern Ireland."

"No..."

"So, you need to check anything leaving Northern Ireland in the direction of Ireland."

"No..."

etc. for a couple of hours.
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Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by shpalman » Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:54 pm

From the live blog:
Do you think the UK agreed the protocol in bad faith?

Šefčovič says he would not put it like that. He says when the agreement was negotiated, the British may be did not fully estimate what the consequences could be of the Brexit they had chosen.

Now “more and more things are coming to the table”, he says.

Every time he meets Lord Frost, new problems crop up. Some of them were foreseen, and some were not.

He says that was the problem.

He says the EU wants a roadmap, showing, for example, when the IT system (to administer checks at the GB/NI border) will be in place.
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