Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Mon Jun 14, 2021 9:10 pm
Ah I think I get it - you're postulating a long-term strategy to increase domestic dislike of the EU (and therefore support for the Tories) to win elections and/or allow the Tories to push for even further divergence from the EU?
That’s the first bit. The second bit is to go to the EU and say “your terms are politically unacceptable to our electorate and cannot be accepted. How’s about these more generous ones?”Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:37 pmAh I think I get it - you're postulating a long-term strategy to increase domestic dislike of the EU (and therefore support for the Tories) to win elections and/or allow the Tories to push for even further divergence from the EU?
Why should they be concerned? Getting something from the UK which turns out to have been smuggled in from the EU was never the issue.plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:49 amAustralia are obviously not concerned about the NI border issue and how that might impact trade with them: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... on-tuesday
And of course it represents a divergence from compliance with EU standards. Taraa!plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:49 amAustralia are obviously not concerned about the NI border issue and how that might impact trade with them: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... on-tuesday
As for the rest of the world there is also the question as to whether NI is seen as a special issue that isn't relevant to trade talks, or whether UK perfidy there means they trust the UK less in other negotiations.shpalman wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:51 amWhy should they be concerned? Getting something from the UK which turns out to have been smuggled in from the EU was never the issue.plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:49 amAustralia are obviously not concerned about the NI border issue and how that might impact trade with them: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... on-tuesday
UK perfidy is only applying to the problems around the NI border, which everyone knows is intractable. Trade negotiators aren't thick.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:02 amAs for the rest of the world there is also the question as to whether NI is seen as a special issue that isn't relevant to trade talks, or whether UK perfidy there means they trust the UK less in other negotiations.shpalman wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:51 amWhy should they be concerned? Getting something from the UK which turns out to have been smuggled in from the EU was never the issue.plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:49 amAustralia are obviously not concerned about the NI border issue and how that might impact trade with them: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... on-tuesday
I'm not sure how it'll play out. One consequence may be that other states want much more to be specified in agreements rather than leaving things up to goodwill. If so the agreements will still happen, but they'll take longer.plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:09 amUK perfidy is only applying to the problems around the NI border, which everyone knows is intractable. Trade negotiators aren't thick.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:02 amAs for the rest of the world there is also the question as to whether NI is seen as a special issue that isn't relevant to trade talks, or whether UK perfidy there means they trust the UK less in other negotiations.
The Greeks tried that. They even had a referendum to prove it. It did not persuade the EU to offer more generous terms. In fact the effect of delay was that the Greece was in even more of a mess, and the EU worsened their terms. And on the edge of the abyss, the Greeks took them.
It's not proportionate to compare defaulting on hundreds of millions of euros / dollars of debt and announcing you'll carry on importing mince for a few months whilst things calm down. Frost is clever to trivialise this. If there are punishments it will be perceived domestically as the EU being punitive and all we'll see is more John Bull rhetoric from Johnson and chums.IvanV wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:59 amThe Greeks tried that. They even had a referendum to prove it. It did not persuade the EU to offer more generous terms. In fact the effect of delay was that the Greece was in even more of a mess, and the EU worsened their terms. And on the edge of the abyss, the Greeks took them.
The Argentineans also tried it on the IMF. They demonstrated it by getting through 5 presidents in a month, as presidents who indicated willingness to accept the terms could not sustain their position. Improved terms were not forthcoming. Argentina refused them and fell into the abyss.
Britain isn't sitting on the edge of an abyss, well not of the depth of the Greeks and Argentineans. We don't know what retaliation the EU has in mind. But even if it were tearing up the entire trade treaty it wouldn't be a Greek/Argentinean depth of abyss. I don't think the EU is willing to impose a hard border in Ireland, which would be the logical punishment.
My suspicion is that Johnson will take the punishments on the chin. Northern Ireland's boundaries will become some kind of a frozen contradiction with potential for abuse. Eventually people will have to find alternative backstop methods of self-protection if the quantity of abuse of them gets too large.
These things are hundreds of pages long anyway. There's not a lot of room for goodwill in the important bits.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:21 amI'm not sure how it'll play out. One consequence may be that other states want much more to be specified in agreements rather than leaving things up to goodwill. If so the agreements will still happen, but they'll take longer.
No, the NI border issue doesn't have a solution.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:28 amYeah, it's not really an intractable problem. It's just "no sausages".
The UK is unilaterally breaking a peacekeeping arrangement they signed up to a few months ago. Which weakens the UK's position if they want to apply pressure anywhere else.
There's loads of borders where you can't cross with sausages. It's not a big deal. This is cakeism.
I'm sure the EU can find agricultural products to ban or slap tariffs on that overwhelmingly come from the mainland without affecting NI too much.
You've not tried those Richmond 'sausages' then!Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:41 amWhat would be the big problem if NI stopped importing sausages from the mainland? A small increase in sausage prices, which could perhaps be offset by changes to subsidies or taxation.
That's the solution the UK chose, anyway.
Would sausage origin (and possibly price) really lead to violence, if the UK government was trying to calm things down rather than inflame tensions?
The Irish Sea border is clearly not a workable solution for Unionists. The UK knew exactly what it signed, as did the EU. I'm not sure the DUP understood it but they were useful fools.veravista wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:44 amWrong. The NI border problem has been solved, agreed and now ratified by both parties, or have you missed that? It's in the Irish Sea. The 'sausage wars' are a direct result of UK Gov signing it but not understanding (or more likely hoping nobody notices) and is entirely predictable.
Or are you saying that they should be more flexible and allow anything in? We were caught by a sniffer dog going into the US with an old apple core that my 2 year old daughter had secreted in her back pack, surely they could have been a bit more flexible? (they were actually quite understanding about it)
No, but doing over either the Unionists or Republicans would.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:41 am
Would sausage origin (and possibly price) really lead to violence, if the UK government was trying to calm things down rather than inflame tensions?
Meanwhile, the EU will be perfectly within their rights to hammer goods coming from the rest of the UK - not necessarily with tariffs but 'unforeseen delays' at ports for JIT components for say, the automotive industry and building materials coming here.plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:17 amThe Irish Sea border is clearly not a workable solution for Unionists. The UK knew exactly what it signed, as did the EU. I'm not sure the DUP understood it but they were useful fools.veravista wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:44 amWrong. The NI border problem has been solved, agreed and now ratified by both parties, or have you missed that? It's in the Irish Sea. The 'sausage wars' are a direct result of UK Gov signing it but not understanding (or more likely hoping nobody notices) and is entirely predictable.
Or are you saying that they should be more flexible and allow anything in? We were caught by a sniffer dog going into the US with an old apple core that my 2 year old daughter had secreted in her back pack, surely they could have been a bit more flexible? (they were actually quite understanding about it)
What I am saying will be done (and what I have been saying for a couple of years now) is that the UK will kick the can down the road, safe in the knowledge that the EU will not install border infrastructure. There will be some mince wars for a bit, then some sort of status quo will be found where both sides can claim victory. It'll be highly technical sounding but it'll be made of fudge.
Your story about the apple core sounds very alarming.