Page 24 of 67
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:51 am
by plodder
sure, there will be a mince war for a bit, then maybe a banana war, and then maybe a cuddly toy war etc, all framed to make the EU look petty so the domestic audience suck it up.
However it's a bit of a leap from mince to a full blown trade war where the EU tries to bankrupt UK based industries, which are owned by companies based all over the world and where other EU trading partners (eg Japan) might have something to say about it.
Honestly, it's just going to be low level bickering for ages.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:16 pm
by veravista
The EU doesn't need to try and bankrupt UK industry, it can do it without help. Imagine if BMW parts destined for Hams Hall are always delayed, just for an hour or so (or worse for varying times) over and above the tariffs that will be coming when the grace period runs out. BMW are already pissed off enough to consider closing the Cowley Mini production line in the UK (the base level UK model will soon be more expensive in the EU than the Austrian and Dutch built 'premium' models anyway) so moving all production to the EU is a no-brainer for them.
So no, not a full blown trade war, more a slow drip.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:24 pm
by Little waster
plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:40 am
The second bit is to go to the EU and say “your terms are politically unacceptable to our electorate and cannot be accepted. How’s about these more generous ones?”
Presumably the UK expects to raise tariffs on all the f.cks the EU will give?
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:26 pm
by plodder
veravista wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:16 pm
The EU doesn't need to try and bankrupt UK industry, it can do it without help. Imagine if BMW parts destined for Hams Hall are always delayed, just for an hour or so (or worse for varying times) over and above the tariffs that will be coming when the grace period runs out. BMW are already pissed off enough to consider closing the Cowley Mini production line in the UK (the base level UK model will soon be more expensive in the EU than the Austrian and Dutch built 'premium' models anyway) so moving all production to the EU is a no-brainer for them.
So no, not a full blown trade war, more a slow drip.
BMW's German owners would need to be on board with this kind of thing, but yes, obviously it's all a sh.t idea. There is some weird dissonance going on here where explaining why people are doing something is misinterpreted as supporting it. It's as if, because you* don't support it, you're* not interested in understanding it.
*not directed at anyone in particular - but it is a growing theme. Perhaps you're* all white men approaching retirement age or something.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:27 pm
by plodder
Little waster wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:24 pm
plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:40 am
The second bit is to go to the EU and say “your terms are politically unacceptable to our electorate and cannot be accepted. How’s about these more generous ones?”
Presumably the UK expects to raise tariffs on all the f.cks the EU will give?
We've already got away with some wriggling, and I don't see the EU installing border posts and mince checkpoints anywhere.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:54 pm
by Bird on a Fire
plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:27 pm
Little waster wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:24 pm
plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:40 am
The second bit is to go to the EU and say “your terms are politically unacceptable to our electorate and cannot be accepted. How’s about these more generous ones?”
Presumably the UK expects to raise tariffs on all the f.cks the EU will give?
We've already got away with some wriggling, and I don't see the EU installing border posts and mince checkpoints anywhere.
I don't think anybody expects border checkpoints on Ireland. I expect the EU to retaliate via other means if the UK doesn't implement the border it agreed to - there are means to do so baked into the WA.
And it's not that I don't understand the UK strategy. I just think it's sh.t. It won't work well and makes the country look like a..eholes.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:02 pm
by veravista
Why wouldn't BMW be on board with this? It's the UK that have thrown the spanner in the works of their supply chain, the complexity and inter-connectivity of which is really difficult for most people to actually comprehend. They are already ramping up the build of the Polish factory to replace Hams Hall (the specialist machining centre) who not only do engine build and forging post processing for BMW, but also for a few other EU manufacturers. Along with most other automotive manufacturers they run parallel operations in different countries for just this eventuality so it is inevitable that when the UK actually starts actually doing customs checks like it's meant to BMW production will suffer.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:37 pm
by plodder
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:54 pm
And it's not that I don't understand the UK strategy. I just think it's sh.t. It won't work well and makes the country look like a..eholes.
Of course it's sh.t and makes us look like a..eholes, but still that's the best option for Johnson right now. What's he supposed to do, admit he got it wrong?
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:39 pm
by plodder
veravista wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:02 pm
Why wouldn't BMW be on board with this? It's the UK that have thrown the spanner in the works of their supply chain, the complexity and inter-connectivity of which is really difficult for most people to actually comprehend. They are already ramping up the build of the Polish factory to replace Hams Hall (the specialist machining centre) who not only do engine build and forging post processing for BMW, but also for a few other EU manufacturers. Along with most other automotive manufacturers they run parallel operations in different countries for just this eventuality so it is inevitable that when the UK actually starts actually doing customs checks like it's meant to BMW production will suffer.
At the risk of invoking Sheldrake, you sound a bit like chicken licken here. You seem to think BMW actually want to abandon a state of the art manufacturing facility, but just need the excuse of a trade war to do so.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:44 pm
by Woodchopper
plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:51 am
Honestly, it's just going to be low level bickering for ages.
The EU has started legal action. Things will come to a point when that concludes. If the UK accepts the outcome then yes, it'll be bickering for ever.
If the UK refuses to accept then we could be looking at an escalation, as normal channels wouldn't be working.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:50 pm
by Little waster
plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:39 pm
You seem to think BMW actually want to abandon a state of the art manufacturing facility.
Because that never
happens.
WHEN THE Queen opened Siemens' £1bn semiconductor plant on Tyneside just 14 months ago, it seemed that the region had at last left its smokestack image of steel, coal and shipbuilding behind and joined the vanguard of the high-technology revolution.
The gleaming new facility, so the Queen told her audience of local dignitaries and business leaders, "brings the country to the forefront of semi-conductor manufacturing".
In retrospect, the writing was probably already on the wall. The plant had been conceived at a time of rising demand and healthy prices.
But it was born into an industry in sharp decline and suffering from chronic overcapacity.
But as recently as last week, it appeared that the Tyneside plant - of all five Siemens semi-conductor plants - would emerge relatively unscathed. Alan Wood, the chief executive of Siemens plc, briefed journalists that the facility was as competitive and efficient as any in the world.
His bosses in Germany decided otherwise. The other four plants were difficult to close for a variety of reasons.
The Dresden plant was inviolate because it is a symbol of Siemens faith in German unification, the French plant is jointly owned, the US facility has the world's biggest market on its doorstep and the Taiwan plant has a huge labour cost advantage.
That left just one location. And yesterday Tyneside paid the price.
Doesn't matter how new and shiny the factory is, if the economic conditions change to make it not/less profitable they'll close it in a heartbeat.
Best you can hope for is that there is some specific, local political consideration on the ground to tip the balance in your favour versus somewhere else but Brexit and the UK's labour laws work against there as well.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:58 pm
by Sciolus
There are two distinct problems with the NI Protocol. One is political: the unionists hate it. The other is practical: the government hasn't set up the systems to manage the documentary and inspection requirements necessary to implement it (see for example the last few months of Private Eye), and this is the real reason Johnson has no choice but to renege.
Foreign politicians might have some sympathy with the political issue, but the practical problems are entirely because the government is wilfully incompetent, so why would anyone cut Johnson any slack for it?
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:34 pm
by veravista
I've been concerned about UK manufacturing since 2016 as most people could testify. The point being is that the Cowley works is not state of the art, just the equipment in it. And that is easily removable, just as Toyota in Burnaston has done transfering tooling to their new plant in Portugal. Admittedly they haven't done it in one fell swoop, but it's interesting that for the first time ever the cheap body work pressings are mostly made oversees and not in the UK.
I don't want it to happen and having worked in engineering all my life I hope it doesn't happen, but you know, it's driven by economics - and on a purely practical view it's inevitable if we aren't in the single market or customs union.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:41 pm
by tom p
plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:37 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:54 pm
And it's not that I don't understand the UK strategy. I just think it's sh.t. It won't work well and makes the country look like a..eholes.
Of course it's sh.t and makes us look like a..eholes, but still that's the best option for Johnson right now. What's he supposed to do, admit he got it wrong?
He has an 80+ seat majority, 4 years until the next election, an ineffectual leader of the opposition & the distraction of COVID. So, yes, get it out of the way now (but don't use the words 'i got it wrong', simply lie about the change being a change at all).
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:42 pm
by Bird on a Fire
plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:37 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:54 pm
And it's not that I don't understand the UK strategy. I just think it's sh.t. It won't work well and makes the country look like a..eholes.
Of course it's sh.t and makes us look like a..eholes, but still that's the best option for Johnson right now. What's he supposed to do, admit he got it wrong?
Yeah, I think this is the crux of the issue. None of it is about what's best for NI or the UK; it's 100% Johnson-focused and he seems to be surrounded by yes-men in Westminster.
I'd have thought that this kind of perpetual uncertainty and fudging and double-taking is also pretty annoying for businesses, most of whom would presumably like to know what the law will be in a few months' time. Maybe some of them could tell Johnson to stop being a silly tw.t.
Are the Northern Ireland politicos talking to each other yet? A joint statement from them to Johnson ought to be pretty powerful. They'd have to word it creatively so the DUP could pretend they weren't stool pigeons, of course.
But yeah, otherwise the UK is stuck with Britain Trump and flag-waving and mess for the next decade while the rest of the world points and laughs. With a possible side-order of domestic terrorism for extra lols.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:04 pm
by plodder
Sciolus wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:58 pm
There are two distinct problems with the NI Protocol. One is political: the unionists hate it. The other is practical: the government hasn't set up the systems to manage the documentary and inspection requirements necessary to implement it (see for example the last few months of Private Eye), and this is the real reason Johnson has no choice but to renege.
Foreign politicians might have some sympathy with the political issue, but the practical problems are entirely because the government is wilfully incompetent, so why would anyone cut Johnson any slack for it?
'There's been a global pandemic and we focused on a much better vaccine roll out than you lot, why don't you get your priorities straight?' has a ring to it...
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:08 pm
by plodder
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:42 pm
I'd have thought that this kind of perpetual uncertainty and fudging and double-taking is also pretty annoying for businesses, most of whom would presumably like to know what the law will be in a few months' time. Maybe some of them could tell Johnson to stop being a silly tw.t.
He's promising them freedom from a whole raft of regulations on workers rights, the environment, standards, data ownership, the whole caboodle - and he looks like he's going to deliver. Big business doesn't give a toss about Irish mince.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:09 pm
by Brightonian
We'll save up to £1.22 a year with the Australian deal. I think I'll save mine for two years and get a nice sandwich from Tesco.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... h-24321996
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:16 pm
by veravista
I bought Mrs V a Magnum with hers, unfortunately it was £1.60 so I bit a lump off the top. Being a gent I didn't include the stick in my calculations.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:17 pm
by Gfamily
Don't rush it, if you hang on another year you'll be able to get a drink and a packet of crisps as well.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:26 pm
by Bird on a Fire
plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:08 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:42 pm
I'd have thought that this kind of perpetual uncertainty and fudging and double-taking is also pretty annoying for businesses, most of whom would presumably like to know what the law will be in a few months' time. Maybe some of them could tell Johnson to stop being a silly tw.t.
He's promising them freedom from a whole raft of regulations on workers rights, the environment, standards, data ownership, the whole caboodle - and he looks like he's going to deliver. Big business doesn't give a toss about Irish mince.
I was thinking more of the mince industry specifically. Agree that the coming bonfire of regs will be lovely for a certain breed of capitalists.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:53 pm
by shpalman
plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:08 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:42 pm
I'd have thought that this kind of perpetual uncertainty and fudging and double-taking is also pretty annoying for businesses, most of whom would presumably like to know what the law will be in a few months' time. Maybe some of them could tell Johnson to stop being a silly tw.t.
He's promising them freedom from a whole raft of regulations on workers rights, the environment, standards, data ownership, the whole caboodle - and he looks like he's going to deliver. Big business doesn't give a toss about Irish mince.
Big business, but still small enough that it doesn't do business with anyone in the EU at all.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:16 pm
by temptar
plodder wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:04 pm
Sciolus wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:58 pm
There are two distinct problems with the NI Protocol. One is political: the unionists hate it. The other is practical: the government hasn't set up the systems to manage the documentary and inspection requirements necessary to implement it (see for example the last few months of Private Eye), and this is the real reason Johnson has no choice but to renege.
Foreign politicians might have some sympathy with the political issue, but the practical problems are entirely because the government is wilfully incompetent, so why would anyone cut Johnson any slack for it?
'There's been a global pandemic and we focused on a much better vaccine roll out than you lot, why don't you get your priorities straight?' has a ring to it...
Except you didn't because optics are all your government cares about. Delaying the second dose was, courtesy of Delta, not fantastic and your speed gains are offset by the transmissibilty of 2 new variants which we could have all avoided to a greater extent if the UK had been more focused on the pandemic rather than childish games around winning vaccine races. All those countries that were later starting than you are coming out of lockdown on schedule. We thank you for alpha for hiding it and delta for cosying up to Modi for a trade deal which if the Aus one is anything to go by... either way there is self affliction here.
Anyway whatever. The best interests of the UK as a whole would be to swallow some pride and try to get back into the single market, customs union amongst other things. But it is clear this has little to do with the UK's interests as a whole.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:23 pm
by Bird on a Fire
Hellyeah
Re: Brexit Consequences
Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 7:15 am
by jimbob
veravista wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:16 pm
The EU doesn't need to try and bankrupt UK industry, it can do it without help. Imagine if BMW parts destined for Hams Hall are always delayed, just for an hour or so (or worse for varying times) over and above the tariffs that will be coming when the grace period runs out. BMW are already pissed off enough to consider closing the Cowley Mini production line in the UK (the base level UK model will soon be more expensive in the EU than the Austrian and Dutch built 'premium' models anyway) so moving all production to the EU is a no-brainer for them.
So no, not a full blown trade war, more a slow drip.
Exactly. And a 5% increase in costs is not going to lead to a 5% reduction in sales, but far more, assuming that a product has roughly equivalent competitors at an equivalent price