Scrutable

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:31 am

Hedge Funds were short-selling Gamestop (the Blockbuster of video games, apparently), and then "parlaying" those shorts, ie making multiple bets that the stock's value would hit $0. Apparently they were also writing articles and spreading rumours about the company's imminent collapse.

Reddittors found out, and decided to f.ck them over by buying the stock. The value went up from $20 to $250 or something, so the hedge funds have lost many multiples of their short position.

lpm wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:28 am

Its worth noting that the "correct" price of an AMC share is about $4, at least that's about what it's been trading at for the past 3 months before the market manipulation. Looks like the pandemic has left the company on the ropes, down from $15 to $20 in 2019.

Thought I'd take a look at how the meme stocks are doing and whether Wall Street has been destroyed or not.

Gamestop went from $20, peaked at around $250, now $80.

AMC went from $4, peaked at $59, now at $10.

So still a very good profit for anyone who got in at the start, but no longer the massive paper profits. Grim for the "hold till you die" bros who got in too late.

I hadn't realised just how memey Tesla stock was. It's showing the same aspects, people who've made a great profit and should be happy, yet are convinced they'll recover their vast paper profit and urge others to buy the dip.

Wall Street still seems to exist. This little adventure wasn't perhaps as world shattering as some people felt at the time.

I get the feeling that Tesla stock is seen as being at risk from Musk wasting money on Twitter.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Thu May 12, 2022 1:49 pm

I get the feeling that Tesla stock is seen as being at risk from Musk wasting money on Twitter.

Musk's been engaged in dodgy manipulative behaviour around Tesla stock for many years. If people look too closely, they realise, so any attention to Musk's finances is probably going to dent Tesla stock, especially things like having to borrow a lot of money because he isn't quite as wealthy as the mythology suggests.

Tesla 2020 vs others 2019 figures

noggins wrote: ↑

Fri May 13, 2022 4:20 pm

Tesla 2020 vs others 2019 figures

To be fair, Amazon would have been in a similar position for quite some time. But then, so was Netscape.

Related: "Enron won Fortune magazine's 'America's most innovative company' award for an unprecedented six years between 1996 and as recently as 2001"

noggins wrote: ↑

Fri May 13, 2022 4:20 pm

Tesla 2020 vs others 2019 figures

Yes, but Tesla has a genuine advantage going forwards, and the others are struggling to catch up.

Grumble wrote: ↑

Fri May 13, 2022 5:10 pm

noggins wrote: ↑

Fri May 13, 2022 4:20 pm

Tesla 2020 vs others 2019 figures

Yes, but Tesla has a genuine advantage going forwards, and the others are struggling to catch up.

I don’t think that advantage is worth 140X what Volkswagen is. Also, TSLA has taken a hit recently down 40% since it’s peak just before the start of the year.

VW, Ford and others are currently so successful with EV sales that you can't get one this year. Ford may exceed the limits for Federal subsidies on EVs this year. Tesla already has.

Tesla has no particular advantage over Ford and VW in EV production and sales, except having got the early adopters on-board. Ford and VW are selling EVs significantly cheaper than Tesla - similar prices to Model 3s rather than S, Y, etc.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Fri May 13, 2022 6:02 pm

VW, Ford and others are currently so successful with EV sales that you can't get one this year. Ford may exceed the limits for Federal subsidies on EVs this year. Tesla already has.

The F150 Lightning is going to sell in stupid quantities well before the Cybertruck reaches production. And Americans love their big trucks.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Fri May 13, 2022 6:02 pm

VW, Ford and others are currently so successful with EV sales that you can't get one this year. Ford may exceed the limits for Federal subsidies on EVs this year. Tesla already has.

Tesla has no particular advantage over Ford and VW in EV production and sales, except having got the early adopters on-board. Ford and VW are selling EVs significantly cheaper than Tesla - similar prices to Model 3s rather than S, Y, etc.

Hey, you did an edit!

I gather that Tesla has a lower cost of production and needs fewer man-hours to produce a like for like car as compared to their competitors. That won’t hold as the rest of them refine production techniques and supply chains.

A lot of Tesla's brand image could be harmed if it tries the "tech company" approach to obsolescence and servicing, which I seem to recall has started to happen with software maintenance etc.

Their workplace practices are not great at encouraging a favourable view.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... rk-culture

dyqik wrote: ↑

Fri May 13, 2022 6:02 pm

VW, Ford and others are currently so successful with EV sales that you can't get one this year. Ford may exceed the limits for Federal subsidies on EVs this year. Tesla already has.

Tesla has no particular advantage over Ford and VW in EV production and sales, except having got the early adopters on-board. Ford and VW are selling EVs significantly cheaper than Tesla - similar prices to Model 3s rather than S, Y, etc.

That's a strange kind of success. The old car companies did nothing to create the demand for EVs (except create the climate emergency and the air pollution emergency). They completely failed to anticipate the boom in demand and retool.

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu May 12, 2022 1:25 pm

Gamestop went from $20, peaked at around $250, now $80.

So Gamestop was a viable business, at least in the medium term, so it's a good thing that those trying to profit by killing it failed.

Sciolus wrote: ↑

Fri May 13, 2022 7:13 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Fri May 13, 2022 6:02 pm

VW, Ford and others are currently so successful with EV sales that you can't get one this year. Ford may exceed the limits for Federal subsidies on EVs this year. Tesla already has.

Tesla has no particular advantage over Ford and VW in EV production and sales, except having got the early adopters on-board. Ford and VW are selling EVs significantly cheaper than Tesla - similar prices to Model 3s rather than S, Y, etc.

That's a strange kind of success. The old car companies did nothing to create the demand for EVs (except create the climate emergency and the air pollution emergency). They completely failed to anticipate the boom in demand and retool.

The past performance is pretty much irrelevant to valuation based on current and future performance.

bjn wrote: ↑

Fri May 13, 2022 6:08 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Fri May 13, 2022 6:02 pm

VW, Ford and others are currently so successful with EV sales that you can't get one this year. Ford may exceed the limits for Federal subsidies on EVs this year. Tesla already has.

Tesla has no particular advantage over Ford and VW in EV production and sales, except having got the early adopters on-board. Ford and VW are selling EVs significantly cheaper than Tesla - similar prices to Model 3s rather than S, Y, etc.

Hey, you did an edit!

I gather that Tesla has a lower cost of production and needs fewer man-hours to produce a like for like car as compared to their competitors. That won’t hold as the rest of them refine production techniques and supply chains.

Tesla's production facilities do not suggest a firm that is likely to have anything but a fleeting advantage in one specific area while others tool up for EVs. In terms of car production in general they are not as automated as their competitors, and their build quality and finish are dire.

Quality trolling by Ryanair: https://twitter.com/ryanair/status/1525 ... vdQluhYRiw

Sciolus wrote: ↑

Fri May 13, 2022 7:15 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu May 12, 2022 1:25 pm

Gamestop went from $20, peaked at around $250, now $80.

So Gamestop was a viable business, at least in the medium term, so it's a good thing that those trying to profit by killing it failed.

Yes indeed. Lots of jobs saved and so on, as well as the profits for anyone who got in at under $80 etc.

The "vulture" fund trying to kill it did indeed survive, but only because it got $2.75 billion from other funds to cover its losses. Which sounds like a fair bit of money to me. Might make them think twice before trying again, if Wall St bros learn stuff.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ler-agenda

Lol, selling shares in a struggling company isn't "trying to kill it". It is "thinking its going to be killed".

What protects workers in a retail chain is buying things from that retailer, not buying shares of that retailer.

No, they were trying to kill it with aggressive short positions and media publications.

Buying shares stopped the company going bankrupt, which would probably have resulted in job losses.

Wow, back to the beginner's errors from the start of the thread. Nothing learned.

Like this you mean?

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:37 am

Everyone realises that it's the Reddittors who are the villains, right?

A few of them will make money. But at the likely cost of driving GameStop into bankruptcy and its employees to the unemployment lines, plus a bunch of reddit gamblers losing their money.

Sadly, the rich investors in the hedge funds are actually the good guys here.

Yeah, the meme stock insanity lasted far longer than I predicted. They kept the bubble inflated and Wall Street was able to rake in fees from rights issues.

Gamestop now has cash to cover its losses. Whether extra capital should have been diverted to a high street retail chain is highly dubious. It means, of course, that investment wasn't made in alternative ventures. Capital allocation decisions were distorted.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Sat May 14, 2022 9:17 am

No, they were trying to kill it with aggressive short positions and media publications.

Buying shares stopped the company going bankrupt, which would probably have resulted in job losses.

Let me check: do you know that when shares in a company are bought and sold on the open market, the company itself doesn't receive any of the money that changes hands?